Douglas Oxley, PhD
@doc-oxley.bsky.social
Political Scientist / Data Scientist who digs research methods, public policy, social institutions, and behavior.
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
In Maine, voters yesterday were asked to vote on a set of election changes that would have made voting more difficult.
The question went down in flames, with 63% voting against it.
But importantly, it was unpopular even in _many_ places that Trump won last year.
Voters want to make voting easier!
The question went down in flames, with 63% voting against it.
But importantly, it was unpopular even in _many_ places that Trump won last year.
Voters want to make voting easier!
November 5, 2025 at 7:09 PM
In Maine, voters yesterday were asked to vote on a set of election changes that would have made voting more difficult.
The question went down in flames, with 63% voting against it.
But importantly, it was unpopular even in _many_ places that Trump won last year.
Voters want to make voting easier!
The question went down in flames, with 63% voting against it.
But importantly, it was unpopular even in _many_ places that Trump won last year.
Voters want to make voting easier!
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
I think the "politician issue positions are decisive in elections" crowd needs to reconcile their beliefs with political science evidence finding that positions are mostly downstream of party ID and elite opinion leadership www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Does Party Trump Ideology? Disentangling Party and Ideology in America | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Does Party Trump Ideology? Disentangling Party and Ideology in America - Volume 113 Issue 1
www.cambridge.org
November 4, 2025 at 7:48 PM
I think the "politician issue positions are decisive in elections" crowd needs to reconcile their beliefs with political science evidence finding that positions are mostly downstream of party ID and elite opinion leadership www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
The ROI on biking infrastructure is clear. USA cities pay attention.
IMPORTANT: The Dutch invest €595 million annually on urban biking, resulting in €19 BILLION saved in public health care costs alone. That’s how smart governments do the math on investing in better mobility.
Let’s be clear— it wastes public money to NOT do it.
#CityMakingMath HT @modacitylife.com
Let’s be clear— it wastes public money to NOT do it.
#CityMakingMath HT @modacitylife.com
October 29, 2025 at 3:02 PM
The ROI on biking infrastructure is clear. USA cities pay attention.
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
Are humans really the only rational animals? Our NEW PAPER 🎉 out in @science.org suggests otherwise! In a large collaboration led with my joint first author @hanna-schleihauf.bsky.social, we show that “Chimpanzees rationally revise their beliefs” 🧵
Chimpanzees rationally revise their beliefs
The selective revision of beliefs in light of new evidence has been considered one of the hallmarks of human-level rationality. However, tests of this ability in other species are lacking. We examined...
www.science.org
October 30, 2025 at 6:23 PM
Are humans really the only rational animals? Our NEW PAPER 🎉 out in @science.org suggests otherwise! In a large collaboration led with my joint first author @hanna-schleihauf.bsky.social, we show that “Chimpanzees rationally revise their beliefs” 🧵
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
A very offline cousin sent this to fam group chat. This story is breaking containment.
October 24, 2025 at 11:36 PM
A very offline cousin sent this to fam group chat. This story is breaking containment.
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
Here's the thing I don't understand. You can't as much as sneeze near a historic site in Washington without like 14 commissions, councils, and advisory boards giving you the okay. And everybody now is like...yup, fine with us? wtf?
NEW: After The Washington Post reported Monday on the demolition of the "East Wing facade," a new picture obtained by Law Dork that was taken on Tuesday shows that a substantial portion of the entirety of the East Wing has been demolished.
October 21, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Here's the thing I don't understand. You can't as much as sneeze near a historic site in Washington without like 14 commissions, councils, and advisory boards giving you the okay. And everybody now is like...yup, fine with us? wtf?
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
To be absolutely clear, it is impossible to vote for a party that cannot bring itself to unequivocally defend the rights of people living and working legally in this country. Because arbitrary removal of legal rights, or sudden varying of terms, for some is ultimately a threat to everyone.
October 21, 2025 at 10:13 AM
To be absolutely clear, it is impossible to vote for a party that cannot bring itself to unequivocally defend the rights of people living and working legally in this country. Because arbitrary removal of legal rights, or sudden varying of terms, for some is ultimately a threat to everyone.
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
The way Trump is violating the Constitution to pay the troops during the shutdown is a big deal that is getting virtually no coverage because Democrats don't want to be on the wrong side of the issue (podcasts.happyscribe.com/the-daily/a-...), but that's precisely why it's so dangerous.
October 19, 2025 at 3:56 PM
The way Trump is violating the Constitution to pay the troops during the shutdown is a big deal that is getting virtually no coverage because Democrats don't want to be on the wrong side of the issue (podcasts.happyscribe.com/the-daily/a-...), but that's precisely why it's so dangerous.
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
No money for healthcare, no money for veterans, no money for farmers. But good news: Trump just doubled Argentina’s bailout to $40 billion.
October 15, 2025 at 8:01 PM
No money for healthcare, no money for veterans, no money for farmers. But good news: Trump just doubled Argentina’s bailout to $40 billion.
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
If Trump can order the murder of people on boats without any accountability, he can order the murder of people on land without any accountability.
That's twenty-seven flat-out murders. That's twenty-seven lives taken without even a semblance of a legal justification under domestic or international law.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/u...
October 15, 2025 at 1:43 AM
If Trump can order the murder of people on boats without any accountability, he can order the murder of people on land without any accountability.
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
NOW OUT ON FIRSTVIEW!!
#Populist #Attacks on #Academic #Freedom: How Populist Leadership Erodes Academic Freedom in #Liberal & #Electoral #Democracies
By @victorhernandez.bsky.social & María Inclán
doi.org/10.1017/S153...
#Populist #Attacks on #Academic #Freedom: How Populist Leadership Erodes Academic Freedom in #Liberal & #Electoral #Democracies
By @victorhernandez.bsky.social & María Inclán
doi.org/10.1017/S153...
October 9, 2025 at 1:27 PM
NOW OUT ON FIRSTVIEW!!
#Populist #Attacks on #Academic #Freedom: How Populist Leadership Erodes Academic Freedom in #Liberal & #Electoral #Democracies
By @victorhernandez.bsky.social & María Inclán
doi.org/10.1017/S153...
#Populist #Attacks on #Academic #Freedom: How Populist Leadership Erodes Academic Freedom in #Liberal & #Electoral #Democracies
By @victorhernandez.bsky.social & María Inclán
doi.org/10.1017/S153...
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
This evening, President Trump is ordering 400 members of the Texas National Guard for deployments to Illinois, Oregon, and other locations within the United States. No officials from the federal government called me directly to discuss or coordinate.
October 6, 2025 at 1:44 AM
This evening, President Trump is ordering 400 members of the Texas National Guard for deployments to Illinois, Oregon, and other locations within the United States. No officials from the federal government called me directly to discuss or coordinate.
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
Question is - and I’m being totally serious - why aren’t they saying anything
Jeffries gets somewhat heated with Sorkin: "The Trump administration has attacked the free enterprise system in here in the USA. The Trump administration has unleashed the largest pay to play scheme in modern American history, and everybody in corporate America knows it."
August 14, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Question is - and I’m being totally serious - why aren’t they saying anything
If one wanted to engage in a coup or do something else illegal in DC, then a key step would be to control the response of the police and National Guard. Centralized power is not the American way.
August 11, 2025 at 5:47 PM
If one wanted to engage in a coup or do something else illegal in DC, then a key step would be to control the response of the police and National Guard. Centralized power is not the American way.
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
Hello journalists. If you report this you gotta say that under the Constitution he has no power to do it. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
August 7, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Hello journalists. If you report this you gotta say that under the Constitution he has no power to do it. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
Hello. The president's continued insistence that the BLS numbers are rigged, political, or otherwise manipulated is a lie. Please stop saying 'baseless claim.' Thank you.
August 5, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Hello. The president's continued insistence that the BLS numbers are rigged, political, or otherwise manipulated is a lie. Please stop saying 'baseless claim.' Thank you.
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
August 4, 2025 at 6:40 PM
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
New in BJPS: @amydmeli.bsky.social and I investigate how Fortune 500 companies changed their 💰 after Jan 6. We find that they balance the interests of their two audiences by sending signals of disapproval towards those who violate established norms while continuing to lobby key lawmakers.
NEW -
Principled Pragmatism: Big Business and Campaign Contributions After January 6 - cup.org/4l99G7Z
- @amydmeli.bsky.social & @fgawehns.bsky.social
#OpenAccess #Jan6
Principled Pragmatism: Big Business and Campaign Contributions After January 6 - cup.org/4l99G7Z
- @amydmeli.bsky.social & @fgawehns.bsky.social
#OpenAccess #Jan6
August 1, 2025 at 2:56 PM
New in BJPS: @amydmeli.bsky.social and I investigate how Fortune 500 companies changed their 💰 after Jan 6. We find that they balance the interests of their two audiences by sending signals of disapproval towards those who violate established norms while continuing to lobby key lawmakers.
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
Texas's abortion ban is very out of step with the median voter. It's not the reddest gerrymander out there (it might be soon), but gerrymandering is one reason state policy is out of step with the preferences of Texans.
August 1, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Texas's abortion ban is very out of step with the median voter. It's not the reddest gerrymander out there (it might be soon), but gerrymandering is one reason state policy is out of step with the preferences of Texans.
The tariff deal with Japan has me thinking: 1) It is well aligned with crony-capitalism, 2) a 15% tax on Japanese cars is not cheap, and 3) a system where one person decides how to allocate capital is not capitalism.
July 23, 2025 at 12:57 PM
The tariff deal with Japan has me thinking: 1) It is well aligned with crony-capitalism, 2) a 15% tax on Japanese cars is not cheap, and 3) a system where one person decides how to allocate capital is not capitalism.
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
"Reich citizenship will not be laid in the cradle of every one born in Germany, but will be ceremoniously conferred on him after he has shown himself worthy of it through special accomplishments, through loyal services to the State." NY Times, July 6, 1933.
July 12, 2025 at 8:18 PM
"Reich citizenship will not be laid in the cradle of every one born in Germany, but will be ceremoniously conferred on him after he has shown himself worthy of it through special accomplishments, through loyal services to the State." NY Times, July 6, 1933.
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
It’s ludicrous and immoral to require some of America’s universities to pay a higher effective tax rate than many corporations do.
July 11, 2025 at 12:36 AM
It’s ludicrous and immoral to require some of America’s universities to pay a higher effective tax rate than many corporations do.
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
DON’T appease fascists. It doesn’t work.
DON’T give a bully your lunch money. It shows you’re a soft target, encouraging them to demand more.
DON’T negotiate with terrorists. It accepts their techniques as legitimate.
Decades of history and pop culture, only to land on “but it might work for us.”
DON’T give a bully your lunch money. It shows you’re a soft target, encouraging them to demand more.
DON’T negotiate with terrorists. It accepts their techniques as legitimate.
Decades of history and pop culture, only to land on “but it might work for us.”
July 11, 2025 at 1:24 PM
DON’T appease fascists. It doesn’t work.
DON’T give a bully your lunch money. It shows you’re a soft target, encouraging them to demand more.
DON’T negotiate with terrorists. It accepts their techniques as legitimate.
Decades of history and pop culture, only to land on “but it might work for us.”
DON’T give a bully your lunch money. It shows you’re a soft target, encouraging them to demand more.
DON’T negotiate with terrorists. It accepts their techniques as legitimate.
Decades of history and pop culture, only to land on “but it might work for us.”
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
Tariffs are taxes
Thread
Thread
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating 1) the 50% copper tariff, and 2) the July 7 & 9 letters to 22 countries with new "reciprocal" tariff rates. Both go into effect August 1. In brief...
1/10
1/10
July 10, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Tariffs are taxes
Thread
Thread
Reposted by Douglas Oxley, PhD
It's hard to tell the difference between bad and terrifying, but this is terrifying. The US govt. wants to be able to de-naturalize people for crimes as menial as "fraud against the United States" (??).
Then they could deport you to their El Salvadoran prison, and you'd have no recourse...
Then they could deport you to their El Salvadoran prison, and you'd have no recourse...
The White House has ordered the US Dept. of Justice to prioritize denaturalization: voiding the citizenship of US citizens.
Who will it denaturalize? "Any" case that it "determines to be sufficiently important".
Point 10 leaves the criteria opaque and arbitrary.
substack.com/redirect/169...
Who will it denaturalize? "Any" case that it "determines to be sufficiently important".
Point 10 leaves the criteria opaque and arbitrary.
substack.com/redirect/169...
June 30, 2025 at 7:00 PM
It's hard to tell the difference between bad and terrifying, but this is terrifying. The US govt. wants to be able to de-naturalize people for crimes as menial as "fraud against the United States" (??).
Then they could deport you to their El Salvadoran prison, and you'd have no recourse...
Then they could deport you to their El Salvadoran prison, and you'd have no recourse...