DeDurkheim
@dedurkheim.bsky.social
Sociologist of religion. Catholic. Normie liberal. Mostly on hiatus from posting unless and until this site improves.
Pinned
DeDurkheim
@dedurkheim.bsky.social
· Feb 9
A new graph on Presidential approval at election time.
I continue to think Biden's (dis)approval was going to be a tough hand to play for any Democratic nominee. Harris should have been considered a solid underdog based on this, and claims that she ran a bad campaign are mostly baseless.
I continue to think Biden's (dis)approval was going to be a tough hand to play for any Democratic nominee. Harris should have been considered a solid underdog based on this, and claims that she ran a bad campaign are mostly baseless.
Many people pretend not to understand the "chilling effect" caused by punishment for campus speech. But it usually becomes quite clear when a liberal professor is the one sanctioned or fired.
June 29, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Many people pretend not to understand the "chilling effect" caused by punishment for campus speech. But it usually becomes quite clear when a liberal professor is the one sanctioned or fired.
This will be an ongoing thread where I catalogue inanities and tropes of anti-anti-Trumpers.
June 24, 2025 at 11:17 PM
This will be an ongoing thread where I catalogue inanities and tropes of anti-anti-Trumpers.
Reposted by DeDurkheim
Query whether the "FIRE caused Trump's bad acts against higher ed by advocating against campus illiberalism for 20 years before Trump was even a thing" crowd will similarly criticize the liberal scholars & activists who left this particular loaded gun laying around for the right to pick up
No?
🧐🧐🧐
No?
🧐🧐🧐
June 16, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Query whether the "FIRE caused Trump's bad acts against higher ed by advocating against campus illiberalism for 20 years before Trump was even a thing" crowd will similarly criticize the liberal scholars & activists who left this particular loaded gun laying around for the right to pick up
No?
🧐🧐🧐
No?
🧐🧐🧐
Reposted by DeDurkheim
In 1963, Bernard Cohen wrote the press may not tell people what to think, but it does tell them what to think *about*.
Similarly, in 1960s protests and media made civil rights salient.
All to say, politicians may struggle to shape mass opinion, but they can influence which issues are salient.
Similarly, in 1960s protests and media made civil rights salient.
All to say, politicians may struggle to shape mass opinion, but they can influence which issues are salient.
May 25, 2025 at 4:31 PM
In 1963, Bernard Cohen wrote the press may not tell people what to think, but it does tell them what to think *about*.
Similarly, in 1960s protests and media made civil rights salient.
All to say, politicians may struggle to shape mass opinion, but they can influence which issues are salient.
Similarly, in 1960s protests and media made civil rights salient.
All to say, politicians may struggle to shape mass opinion, but they can influence which issues are salient.
I graded selected "heterodox" Harper's letter signatories on how well they have spoken out against Trump's threats to speech, academic freedom, and civil liberties. The list is limited to Americans (I don't really expect non-Americans to focus so much on Trump). 🧵
May 25, 2025 at 3:26 PM
I graded selected "heterodox" Harper's letter signatories on how well they have spoken out against Trump's threats to speech, academic freedom, and civil liberties. The list is limited to Americans (I don't really expect non-Americans to focus so much on Trump). 🧵
This was the best day on Bluesky since I've been here. Tons of photos from Hands Off protests across the country. Instead of idiotic crying that NYT and moderate Harris voters are somehow to blame for Trump.
(FWIW, there's little about the protests on X. Possibly being algorithmically suppressed.)
(FWIW, there's little about the protests on X. Possibly being algorithmically suppressed.)
My last post on this site for at least a while.
Stop whining about the wording or framing of headlines about Trump. It’s useless and wrongly-directed grievance. If you want to do something that might make a difference, get off your couch and join the nearest protest in your area.
Stop whining about the wording or framing of headlines about Trump. It’s useless and wrongly-directed grievance. If you want to do something that might make a difference, get off your couch and join the nearest protest in your area.
Many “savvy” folks argue protests can’t work. Evidence suggests otherwise.
“Muslim ban set off a fury of protests across US, garnering tremendous media attention and discussion… Portraying ‘Ban’ at odds with inclusive elements of American identity prompted some citizens to shift their attitudes…”
“Muslim ban set off a fury of protests across US, garnering tremendous media attention and discussion… Portraying ‘Ban’ at odds with inclusive elements of American identity prompted some citizens to shift their attitudes…”
April 6, 2025 at 5:23 AM
This was the best day on Bluesky since I've been here. Tons of photos from Hands Off protests across the country. Instead of idiotic crying that NYT and moderate Harris voters are somehow to blame for Trump.
(FWIW, there's little about the protests on X. Possibly being algorithmically suppressed.)
(FWIW, there's little about the protests on X. Possibly being algorithmically suppressed.)
Reposted by DeDurkheim
New study looks at protests against far right in 2002 French elections. Finds “larger protests reduced number of votes for Le Pen and abstention, while increasing number of votes for the incumbent president, Chirac.” Also finds “effect worked
through media exposure.” nicolas-lagios.com/files/fn.pdf
through media exposure.” nicolas-lagios.com/files/fn.pdf
November 16, 2024 at 11:35 PM
New study looks at protests against far right in 2002 French elections. Finds “larger protests reduced number of votes for Le Pen and abstention, while increasing number of votes for the incumbent president, Chirac.” Also finds “effect worked
through media exposure.” nicolas-lagios.com/files/fn.pdf
through media exposure.” nicolas-lagios.com/files/fn.pdf
My last post on this site for at least a while.
Stop whining about the wording or framing of headlines about Trump. It’s useless and wrongly-directed grievance. If you want to do something that might make a difference, get off your couch and join the nearest protest in your area.
Stop whining about the wording or framing of headlines about Trump. It’s useless and wrongly-directed grievance. If you want to do something that might make a difference, get off your couch and join the nearest protest in your area.
Many “savvy” folks argue protests can’t work. Evidence suggests otherwise.
“Muslim ban set off a fury of protests across US, garnering tremendous media attention and discussion… Portraying ‘Ban’ at odds with inclusive elements of American identity prompted some citizens to shift their attitudes…”
“Muslim ban set off a fury of protests across US, garnering tremendous media attention and discussion… Portraying ‘Ban’ at odds with inclusive elements of American identity prompted some citizens to shift their attitudes…”
A Change of Heart? Why Individual-Level Public Opinion Shifted Against Trump’s “Muslim Ban” - Political Behavior
Public opinion research suggests that rapid and significant individual-level fluctuations in opinions toward various policies is fairly unexpected absent methodological artifacts. While this may gener...
link.springer.com
February 15, 2025 at 7:52 PM
My last post on this site for at least a while.
Stop whining about the wording or framing of headlines about Trump. It’s useless and wrongly-directed grievance. If you want to do something that might make a difference, get off your couch and join the nearest protest in your area.
Stop whining about the wording or framing of headlines about Trump. It’s useless and wrongly-directed grievance. If you want to do something that might make a difference, get off your couch and join the nearest protest in your area.
My biggest disappointment with BlueSky is the lack of a community that is intellectually curious about data and research. Discussion of polling and election data is considerably better on twitter, though admittedly you can get nasty replies in both places.
February 14, 2025 at 4:18 AM
My biggest disappointment with BlueSky is the lack of a community that is intellectually curious about data and research. Discussion of polling and election data is considerably better on twitter, though admittedly you can get nasty replies in both places.
A new graph on Presidential approval at election time.
I continue to think Biden's (dis)approval was going to be a tough hand to play for any Democratic nominee. Harris should have been considered a solid underdog based on this, and claims that she ran a bad campaign are mostly baseless.
I continue to think Biden's (dis)approval was going to be a tough hand to play for any Democratic nominee. Harris should have been considered a solid underdog based on this, and claims that she ran a bad campaign are mostly baseless.
February 9, 2025 at 7:28 PM
A new graph on Presidential approval at election time.
I continue to think Biden's (dis)approval was going to be a tough hand to play for any Democratic nominee. Harris should have been considered a solid underdog based on this, and claims that she ran a bad campaign are mostly baseless.
I continue to think Biden's (dis)approval was going to be a tough hand to play for any Democratic nominee. Harris should have been considered a solid underdog based on this, and claims that she ran a bad campaign are mostly baseless.
To repeat myself. Republicans should pray we don't have a recession during the next four years. If so, it will be extremely easy for Democrats to tar them as a party of billionaires that doesn't care about the little guy. As Democrats successfully did after the great recession.
Russell Vought, the acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and one of the authors of Project 2025, just ordered the agency's staff to effectively cease all operations in an org wide email.
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/08/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/08/u...
Federal Financial Watchdog Ordered to Cease Activity
In an email to staff of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the agency’s acting director ordered workers to cease “all supervision and examination activity.”
www.nytimes.com
February 9, 2025 at 3:54 AM
To repeat myself. Republicans should pray we don't have a recession during the next four years. If so, it will be extremely easy for Democrats to tar them as a party of billionaires that doesn't care about the little guy. As Democrats successfully did after the great recession.
A prediction so easy that it’s almost not worth stating.
The Republicans will buy off farmers hurt by this with more big payouts. Most (not all) farmers will remain political conservatives who complain about government spending and subsidies.
The Republicans will buy off farmers hurt by this with more big payouts. Most (not all) farmers will remain political conservatives who complain about government spending and subsidies.
U.S. businesses that sold goods and services to USAID are in limbo, including American farms dealing in rice, wheat and soybeans purchased as food aid.
Gutting USAID threatens billions of dollars for U.S. farms, businesses
U.S. businesses that sold goods and services to USAID are in limbo, including American farms dealing in rice, wheat and soybeans.
www.washingtonpost.com
February 7, 2025 at 4:09 AM
A prediction so easy that it’s almost not worth stating.
The Republicans will buy off farmers hurt by this with more big payouts. Most (not all) farmers will remain political conservatives who complain about government spending and subsidies.
The Republicans will buy off farmers hurt by this with more big payouts. Most (not all) farmers will remain political conservatives who complain about government spending and subsidies.
When did Democrats lose the white working class? There's no simple answer, but on a relative basis, they haven't shown a substantial Democratic lean at least since Carter ran.
Southern whites on the left. Non-South on the right. (Note the different comparison groups).
Southern whites on the left. Non-South on the right. (Note the different comparison groups).
February 3, 2025 at 1:42 AM
When did Democrats lose the white working class? There's no simple answer, but on a relative basis, they haven't shown a substantial Democratic lean at least since Carter ran.
Southern whites on the left. Non-South on the right. (Note the different comparison groups).
Southern whites on the left. Non-South on the right. (Note the different comparison groups).
Lean of white Catholic voters, by church attendance. Not surprisingly, weekly-attenders have moved heavily to the Republican Party. But I didn't expect the seeming drift to the right among those attending less than monthly since 2012. We'll see what the 2024 results show when the data are released.
January 30, 2025 at 2:11 AM
Lean of white Catholic voters, by church attendance. Not surprisingly, weekly-attenders have moved heavily to the Republican Party. But I didn't expect the seeming drift to the right among those attending less than monthly since 2012. We'll see what the 2024 results show when the data are released.
Reposted by DeDurkheim
Based on formal religious identity, China is the least religious country in the world. Just 1-in-10 Chinese adults self-identify with a religion.
China has the largest count of people – about 1 billion adults – who claim no formal religious affiliation.
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
China has the largest count of people – about 1 billion adults – who claim no formal religious affiliation.
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
January 29, 2025 at 10:36 PM
Based on formal religious identity, China is the least religious country in the world. Just 1-in-10 Chinese adults self-identify with a religion.
China has the largest count of people – about 1 billion adults – who claim no formal religious affiliation.
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
China has the largest count of people – about 1 billion adults – who claim no formal religious affiliation.
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
Much been written about the "Catholic vote," including whether it's meaningfully a "bloc." But I haven't seen it broken down by church attendance. Ns are too small with the NES, so I'm looking at other options. This is an exploratory analysis to see if the GSS and exit polls produce similar results.
January 25, 2025 at 11:54 PM
Much been written about the "Catholic vote," including whether it's meaningfully a "bloc." But I haven't seen it broken down by church attendance. Ns are too small with the NES, so I'm looking at other options. This is an exploratory analysis to see if the GSS and exit polls produce similar results.
Reposted by DeDurkheim
Thinking of this today for no reason
January 6, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Thinking of this today for no reason
When Robert Kagan resigned from the Post (after Bezos spiked the Harris endorsement), I pledged on twitter to subscribe to whichever publication picked him up. I'm now an Atlantic subscriber.
Same pledge now. I'll subscribe to whichever outlet hires Telnaes. Minimum two year subscription.
Same pledge now. I'll subscribe to whichever outlet hires Telnaes. Minimum two year subscription.
Pulitzer Prize-winning cartoonist Ann Telnaes announced she has resigned from The Washington Post after the newspaper refused to publish a satirical cartoon depicting billionaire Post owner Jeff Bezos (and others) on bended knee in front of President-elect Donald Trump.
www.cnn.com/2025/01/04/m...
www.cnn.com/2025/01/04/m...
Washington Post cartoonist resigns over paper’s refusal to publish satirical cartoon of Bezos and Trump | CNN Business
Pulitzer Prize-winning cartoonist Ann Telnaes announced Friday she had resigned from The Washington Post after the newspaper refused to publish a satirical cartoon depicting billionaire Post owner Jef...
www.cnn.com
January 4, 2025 at 6:10 PM
When Robert Kagan resigned from the Post (after Bezos spiked the Harris endorsement), I pledged on twitter to subscribe to whichever publication picked him up. I'm now an Atlantic subscriber.
Same pledge now. I'll subscribe to whichever outlet hires Telnaes. Minimum two year subscription.
Same pledge now. I'll subscribe to whichever outlet hires Telnaes. Minimum two year subscription.
Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Obama were skilled politicians. But they were all first elected when people were very mad about the economy--which is largely a matter of luck in timing. I tend to think that any reasonably competent politician could have won in such circumstances.
January 4, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Obama were skilled politicians. But they were all first elected when people were very mad about the economy--which is largely a matter of luck in timing. I tend to think that any reasonably competent politician could have won in such circumstances.
Trust in the government to do what is right, 1958-2024.
The issues we currently have with trust aren't all entirely new.
www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
The issues we currently have with trust aren't all entirely new.
www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
December 31, 2024 at 6:03 AM
Trust in the government to do what is right, 1958-2024.
The issues we currently have with trust aren't all entirely new.
www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
The issues we currently have with trust aren't all entirely new.
www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
Reposted by DeDurkheim
There's never been a lot of evidence for "shy Trump voters" (in the sense of "take polls but hide their support"... nonresponse is a different issue), but this is one of those instances where you do see a possible desirability effect.
Others are qs asking about, eg, people's happiness or finances.
Others are qs asking about, eg, people's happiness or finances.
Another wrinkle in Americans' views about capital punishment is possible social desirability bias in surveys done on the phone with a live interviewer: "The public consistently expresses more support for the death penalty online than on the phone." www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...
December 23, 2024 at 3:13 PM
There's never been a lot of evidence for "shy Trump voters" (in the sense of "take polls but hide their support"... nonresponse is a different issue), but this is one of those instances where you do see a possible desirability effect.
Others are qs asking about, eg, people's happiness or finances.
Others are qs asking about, eg, people's happiness or finances.
Reposted by DeDurkheim
Montana is the clearest place to see the nationalization of US politics. Whole Dem ticket was multigenerational MT hunters & farmers in bolo ties. Dem gov candidate owned a gun manufacturer. GOP slate was outta state tech.
Whole race was dominated by natl culture war & southern border, GOP sweep
Whole race was dominated by natl culture war & southern border, GOP sweep
December 23, 2024 at 1:45 AM
Montana is the clearest place to see the nationalization of US politics. Whole Dem ticket was multigenerational MT hunters & farmers in bolo ties. Dem gov candidate owned a gun manufacturer. GOP slate was outta state tech.
Whole race was dominated by natl culture war & southern border, GOP sweep
Whole race was dominated by natl culture war & southern border, GOP sweep