Adam L
@adam-lg.bsky.social
Data Scientist. Poli sci PhD. Cyclist (Gravel, MTB, road). Bayes, causal inference, etc. Also: cats, food opinions. Views & opinions my own. Not investment advice. He/him
Reposted by Adam L
Reposted by Adam L
This strikes me as the big issue with a lot of “complexity” work: it’s telling you what could be done with complexity theory, not actually doing it.
You can only talk about how great it is for so long without producing results
You can only talk about how great it is for so long without producing results
Arguing that complexity methods can augment the study of inequality, with particular value in understanding the meaning of systemic determinants of disparities, from @durlauf.bsky.social, David McMillon, and Scott Page www.nber.org/papers/w34381
November 10, 2025 at 3:41 PM
This strikes me as the big issue with a lot of “complexity” work: it’s telling you what could be done with complexity theory, not actually doing it.
You can only talk about how great it is for so long without producing results
You can only talk about how great it is for so long without producing results
Reposted by Adam L
“Darth Vader” was an amalgamation of various Imperial Era generals and cyborgs that were combined in histories written centuries after the fact
November 10, 2025 at 7:58 PM
“Darth Vader” was an amalgamation of various Imperial Era generals and cyborgs that were combined in histories written centuries after the fact
Reposted by Adam L
I’m sure this has been pointed out, but you know Bluesky is for 38 year olds because people are defending Episodes I-III of Star Wars
November 10, 2025 at 7:21 PM
I’m sure this has been pointed out, but you know Bluesky is for 38 year olds because people are defending Episodes I-III of Star Wars
Reposted by Adam L
a lot of the problem with the Nates and Matts is that they didn't go to grad school. I don't think going ensures you aren't a blowhard knowitall, but it does make you understand that people have been working on shit for a long time and you can't just brush up in 3 hours because you are a special boy
As someone who spent ten years in grad school (and did defend + graduate) I’m always so weirded out by people who think being smart about one thing makes them smart about everything when what being highly educated did to me was saddle me with the crushing certainty that I’m not smart about anything
the pandemic really fucked him up. he had no expertise in public health, but felt like being a quant guy should make him an expert by default, and people not agreeing with him on that point just sent him into a bizarre radicalizing ego spiral.
November 10, 2025 at 7:07 PM
a lot of the problem with the Nates and Matts is that they didn't go to grad school. I don't think going ensures you aren't a blowhard knowitall, but it does make you understand that people have been working on shit for a long time and you can't just brush up in 3 hours because you are a special boy
Reposted by Adam L
shout out to men on the subway with ereaders. you may not get the attention men with physical books get for some reason but i appreciate that you're signaling to the world "moving apartments is a lot easier for me"
November 10, 2025 at 4:35 PM
shout out to men on the subway with ereaders. you may not get the attention men with physical books get for some reason but i appreciate that you're signaling to the world "moving apartments is a lot easier for me"
This strikes me as the big issue with a lot of “complexity” work: it’s telling you what could be done with complexity theory, not actually doing it.
You can only talk about how great it is for so long without producing results
You can only talk about how great it is for so long without producing results
Arguing that complexity methods can augment the study of inequality, with particular value in understanding the meaning of systemic determinants of disparities, from @durlauf.bsky.social, David McMillon, and Scott Page www.nber.org/papers/w34381
November 10, 2025 at 3:41 PM
This strikes me as the big issue with a lot of “complexity” work: it’s telling you what could be done with complexity theory, not actually doing it.
You can only talk about how great it is for so long without producing results
You can only talk about how great it is for so long without producing results
Homemade cheesesteak with homemade cheese whiz
November 9, 2025 at 11:07 PM
Homemade cheesesteak with homemade cheese whiz
Reposted by Adam L
Is there a version of the ArcGIS Storyboard -- or alternative -- for map or graphic-heavy presentations that doesn't suck?
November 9, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Is there a version of the ArcGIS Storyboard -- or alternative -- for map or graphic-heavy presentations that doesn't suck?
A theory: voters' preferences are a mixture of materialist (unemployment, CoL, inflation, etc) & idealist (both parties are the same, flavors of bigotry, etc) distributions. In good times, their vote weights the 2nd higher, in bad, the 1st. Left parties are more successful when voters sample 1/
one of the greatest struggles for any left-wing political movement in the modern west (and increasingly beyond) is how much of the sheer abject deprivation, fear, and often fatal dangers that were inextricable to the lives of any but the wealth just...barely exist anymore
It is genuinely hard for most people to grasp how poor the past was.
November 9, 2025 at 8:06 PM
A theory: voters' preferences are a mixture of materialist (unemployment, CoL, inflation, etc) & idealist (both parties are the same, flavors of bigotry, etc) distributions. In good times, their vote weights the 2nd higher, in bad, the 1st. Left parties are more successful when voters sample 1/
When I lived in Iowa, I remember there was one particularly rainy summer, and a farmer was like "if you planted in this one week window, you were fine, otherwise everything washed away." Now imagine getting that week wrong means you're hoping you still have some potatoes in the cellar.
it drives me actually insane to have people romanticizing subsistence agriculture as if that's not just playing russian roulette with your family's lives year by year, and that every single one of their ancestors would throttle them for suggesting giving up their email jobs
November 9, 2025 at 6:34 PM
When I lived in Iowa, I remember there was one particularly rainy summer, and a farmer was like "if you planted in this one week window, you were fine, otherwise everything washed away." Now imagine getting that week wrong means you're hoping you still have some potatoes in the cellar.
Reposted by Adam L
Joyce Carol Oates: “In fact he seems totally uneducated, uncultured.”
Darryl, Joyce Carol Oates’ friend: fuck him up, Joyce Carol Oates
Darryl, Joyce Carol Oates’ friend: fuck him up, Joyce Carol Oates
November 9, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Joyce Carol Oates: “In fact he seems totally uneducated, uncultured.”
Darryl, Joyce Carol Oates’ friend: fuck him up, Joyce Carol Oates
Darryl, Joyce Carol Oates’ friend: fuck him up, Joyce Carol Oates
We found @sodrock.bsky.social’s new ride
November 9, 2025 at 5:10 PM
We found @sodrock.bsky.social’s new ride
Reposted by Adam L
Ed promised he’s figured out depreciation
November 8, 2025 at 11:10 PM
Ed promised he’s figured out depreciation
Reposted by Adam L
Begging the “Democrats would be right wing in Europe” crowd to go read a single thing about the immigration discourse in any of these countries
Nobody who spouts this position on European politics has had a single solitary conversation with a center left European about immigration.
November 8, 2025 at 10:49 PM
Begging the “Democrats would be right wing in Europe” crowd to go read a single thing about the immigration discourse in any of these countries
Burn notice: the best action show of the 2000s? It’s worth considering
November 8, 2025 at 10:51 PM
Burn notice: the best action show of the 2000s? It’s worth considering
Reposted by Adam L
Reposted by Adam L
This is a very weird paper. It feels like it was written in 2011, not 2025. Even weirder, it doesn't cite the structural topic model of @bstewart.bsky.social, Roberts et al.
(Economists not citing political scientists? I'm as shocked as you are!)
link: andreaciccarone.github.io/FETM_draft.pdf
(Economists not citing political scientists? I'm as shocked as you are!)
link: andreaciccarone.github.io/FETM_draft.pdf
November 7, 2025 at 2:16 AM
This is a very weird paper. It feels like it was written in 2011, not 2025. Even weirder, it doesn't cite the structural topic model of @bstewart.bsky.social, Roberts et al.
(Economists not citing political scientists? I'm as shocked as you are!)
link: andreaciccarone.github.io/FETM_draft.pdf
(Economists not citing political scientists? I'm as shocked as you are!)
link: andreaciccarone.github.io/FETM_draft.pdf
Reposted by Adam L
November 8, 2025 at 6:42 PM
November 8, 2025 at 6:42 PM
I switched to Costco, even though there’s a Target within walking distance. My mom, a loyal Target shopper for decades, no longer shops there,
Target *really* underestimated how much they pissed off their liberal PMC base
Target *really* underestimated how much they pissed off their liberal PMC base
"Store employees are now required to smile if they are within 10 feet of a shopper.
They also must make eye contact with and wave to or greet the customer.
If they’re within four feet, the employee should ask how the customer’s day is going or if they need help."
🙄 Won't stop the boycott, y'all.
They also must make eye contact with and wave to or greet the customer.
If they’re within four feet, the employee should ask how the customer’s day is going or if they need help."
🙄 Won't stop the boycott, y'all.
Target is now requiring its employees to smile more
As the holiday season fast approaches, Target is urging its employees to add a little more “jolly” to their work routine.
www.wilx.com
November 8, 2025 at 5:26 PM
I switched to Costco, even though there’s a Target within walking distance. My mom, a loyal Target shopper for decades, no longer shops there,
Target *really* underestimated how much they pissed off their liberal PMC base
Target *really* underestimated how much they pissed off their liberal PMC base
This would be his likely opponent: a normie center-left Dem (complimentary) who lives on the UWS & is skilled at working the brownstone/co-op crowd & is currently an Assembly member
November 8, 2025 at 5:18 PM
This would be his likely opponent: a normie center-left Dem (complimentary) who lives on the UWS & is skilled at working the brownstone/co-op crowd & is currently an Assembly member