@aaronaguiar.bsky.social
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The role of economists in policymaking is to shoot down bad ideas. But the economists in this new US administration seem to spend their time thinking up dodgy rationales to justify economically illiterate ideas 🤣
February 22, 2025 at 10:20 AM
The role of economists in policymaking is to shoot down bad ideas. But the economists in this new US administration seem to spend their time thinking up dodgy rationales to justify economically illiterate ideas 🤣
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A video explainer worth your time:
Why Trump's tariff idol, William McKinley, abandoned his own tariff policy to favor free trade www.wsj.com/video/series...
Why Trump's tariff idol, William McKinley, abandoned his own tariff policy to favor free trade www.wsj.com/video/series...
Why Trump’s Tariff Idol, McKinley, Abandoned His Own Tariff Policy
President Donald Trump often cites the 25th President, William McKinley, as an inspiration. The ‘McKinley Tariffs’ were some of the largest hikes in U.S. history, but in his second term, McKinley chan...
www.wsj.com
February 4, 2025 at 2:24 PM
A video explainer worth your time:
Why Trump's tariff idol, William McKinley, abandoned his own tariff policy to favor free trade www.wsj.com/video/series...
Why Trump's tariff idol, William McKinley, abandoned his own tariff policy to favor free trade www.wsj.com/video/series...
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It’s been an .. interesting 24 hours in corporate labor news.
@cnbc.com
@washingtonpost.com
@reuters.com
@cnbc.com
@washingtonpost.com
@reuters.com
January 14, 2025 at 8:07 PM
It’s been an .. interesting 24 hours in corporate labor news.
@cnbc.com
@washingtonpost.com
@reuters.com
@cnbc.com
@washingtonpost.com
@reuters.com
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Also doing it every month seems like the way to get central bankers very concerned about expectations becoming adaptive … they keep saying they can look through it *if* it is a one off
Doing something by a little every month is the opposite of this. Maximizes uncertainty & concern over expectations
Doing something by a little every month is the opposite of this. Maximizes uncertainty & concern over expectations
January 14, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Also doing it every month seems like the way to get central bankers very concerned about expectations becoming adaptive … they keep saying they can look through it *if* it is a one off
Doing something by a little every month is the opposite of this. Maximizes uncertainty & concern over expectations
Doing something by a little every month is the opposite of this. Maximizes uncertainty & concern over expectations
Reposted
More Home Sellers, Fewer Sales
As mortgage rates push 7.25%, we can definitely see ths impact on home sales. Maybe prices too.
That's what we're looking at in the early January housing market.
This week's HousingWire Altos video is up:
youtu.be/0n2miHhj0BM
Thread on this week's data 🧵👇
As mortgage rates push 7.25%, we can definitely see ths impact on home sales. Maybe prices too.
That's what we're looking at in the early January housing market.
This week's HousingWire Altos video is up:
youtu.be/0n2miHhj0BM
Thread on this week's data 🧵👇
More Home Sellers, Fewer Sales
YouTube video by Altos Research
youtu.be
January 13, 2025 at 9:20 PM
More Home Sellers, Fewer Sales
As mortgage rates push 7.25%, we can definitely see ths impact on home sales. Maybe prices too.
That's what we're looking at in the early January housing market.
This week's HousingWire Altos video is up:
youtu.be/0n2miHhj0BM
Thread on this week's data 🧵👇
As mortgage rates push 7.25%, we can definitely see ths impact on home sales. Maybe prices too.
That's what we're looking at in the early January housing market.
This week's HousingWire Altos video is up:
youtu.be/0n2miHhj0BM
Thread on this week's data 🧵👇
Reposted
i find the, “it’s fine if rates are rising for the right reason — better growth” crowd to be myopic. the signal (or one’s interpretation) doesn’t matter as much as the mechanics. the housing market and market volatility do not care why the 10yr has added 110bps in these than 4 months
January 8, 2025 at 11:21 PM
i find the, “it’s fine if rates are rising for the right reason — better growth” crowd to be myopic. the signal (or one’s interpretation) doesn’t matter as much as the mechanics. the housing market and market volatility do not care why the 10yr has added 110bps in these than 4 months
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I see a number of forecasters who last year said inflation wouldn’t decline and the Fed wouldn’t cut short term rates now arguing that inflation is going to worsen because the Fed cut rates.
I wonder about this given that long term rates (the 10 year Treasury is 4.6%) are near a 52-week high.
I wonder about this given that long term rates (the 10 year Treasury is 4.6%) are near a 52-week high.
January 3, 2025 at 8:27 PM
I see a number of forecasters who last year said inflation wouldn’t decline and the Fed wouldn’t cut short term rates now arguing that inflation is going to worsen because the Fed cut rates.
I wonder about this given that long term rates (the 10 year Treasury is 4.6%) are near a 52-week high.
I wonder about this given that long term rates (the 10 year Treasury is 4.6%) are near a 52-week high.
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The retiree rolls are growing by about a million people a year faster than in the pre-GFC years -- good news if you're a prime-age worker, it's easier for employers to manage their headcounts without having to do layoffs:
December 27, 2024 at 7:36 PM
The retiree rolls are growing by about a million people a year faster than in the pre-GFC years -- good news if you're a prime-age worker, it's easier for employers to manage their headcounts without having to do layoffs:
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Home Alone is such a classic Christmas film
December 24, 2024 at 7:34 PM
Home Alone is such a classic Christmas film
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At after-hours prices $DHI and $LEN, the two largest homebuilders in the US with a combined 25% market share, would open tomorrow down 10% YTD.
December 18, 2024 at 11:52 PM
At after-hours prices $DHI and $LEN, the two largest homebuilders in the US with a combined 25% market share, would open tomorrow down 10% YTD.
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$LEN: "In the course of our fourth quarter, the housing market that appeared to be improving as the Fed cut short-term interest rates, proved to be far more challenging as mortgage rates rose almost 100 basis points through the quarter."
December 18, 2024 at 9:34 PM
$LEN: "In the course of our fourth quarter, the housing market that appeared to be improving as the Fed cut short-term interest rates, proved to be far more challenging as mortgage rates rose almost 100 basis points through the quarter."
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$SPY up marginally over the past two weeks while equal weight $RSP down 3.4%. Biggest SPY > RSP outperformance since early July, right before small caps ramped.
A fun way to diversify your exposure to the stocks in the market right now is with...the cap-weighted stock market.
A fun way to diversify your exposure to the stocks in the market right now is with...the cap-weighted stock market.
December 17, 2024 at 9:47 PM
$SPY up marginally over the past two weeks while equal weight $RSP down 3.4%. Biggest SPY > RSP outperformance since early July, right before small caps ramped.
A fun way to diversify your exposure to the stocks in the market right now is with...the cap-weighted stock market.
A fun way to diversify your exposure to the stocks in the market right now is with...the cap-weighted stock market.
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The capitulation of the bears. The recession tail in consensus forecasts has totally disappeared
December 13, 2024 at 11:54 AM
The capitulation of the bears. The recession tail in consensus forecasts has totally disappeared
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Next month we could be talking about base effects.
Core PCE has printed at 0.19% on average since April, assuming that the above is used for November.
If December and January core PCE prints at +0.19%, the 12-month rate would rise to 2.84% in December ... and then fall to 2.5% in January.
Core PCE has printed at 0.19% on average since April, assuming that the above is used for November.
If December and January core PCE prints at +0.19%, the 12-month rate would rise to 2.84% in December ... and then fall to 2.5% in January.
December 12, 2024 at 4:49 PM
Next month we could be talking about base effects.
Core PCE has printed at 0.19% on average since April, assuming that the above is used for November.
If December and January core PCE prints at +0.19%, the 12-month rate would rise to 2.84% in December ... and then fall to 2.5% in January.
Core PCE has printed at 0.19% on average since April, assuming that the above is used for November.
If December and January core PCE prints at +0.19%, the 12-month rate would rise to 2.84% in December ... and then fall to 2.5% in January.
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The highest-conviction US macro view I have right now is homebuilder profitability is cracking, that's going to lead to a slump in residential construction in the first half of next year, and that means all the directional econ risk is one way at the moment.
December 12, 2024 at 9:05 PM
The highest-conviction US macro view I have right now is homebuilder profitability is cracking, that's going to lead to a slump in residential construction in the first half of next year, and that means all the directional econ risk is one way at the moment.
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Deleveraging and the terming out of debt have kept private debt-servicing ratios in check. But that isnt true everywhere
December 10, 2024 at 1:53 PM
Deleveraging and the terming out of debt have kept private debt-servicing ratios in check. But that isnt true everywhere
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*TOL SEES 1Q ADJ. HOME SALES GROSS MARGIN 26.3%, EST. 27.3%
*TOLL BROTHERS SEES 1Q DELIVERIES 1,900 TO 2,100, EST. 2,153
*TOLL BROTHERS SEES 1Q DELIVERIES 1,900 TO 2,100, EST. 2,153
December 9, 2024 at 9:31 PM
*TOL SEES 1Q ADJ. HOME SALES GROSS MARGIN 26.3%, EST. 27.3%
*TOLL BROTHERS SEES 1Q DELIVERIES 1,900 TO 2,100, EST. 2,153
*TOLL BROTHERS SEES 1Q DELIVERIES 1,900 TO 2,100, EST. 2,153
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my takeaway from this @arnabdatta.bsky.social essay is that we need a climate strategy that is robust to "Republicans winning elections" because, that'll happen sometimes, and climate is really important
the hope is that IRA points a way forward www.nytimes.com/2024/12/08/o...
the hope is that IRA points a way forward www.nytimes.com/2024/12/08/o...
December 8, 2024 at 1:06 PM
my takeaway from this @arnabdatta.bsky.social essay is that we need a climate strategy that is robust to "Republicans winning elections" because, that'll happen sometimes, and climate is really important
the hope is that IRA points a way forward www.nytimes.com/2024/12/08/o...
the hope is that IRA points a way forward www.nytimes.com/2024/12/08/o...
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As oil becomes stranded asset, it's going to get harder to justify investment, so future oil spikes may be even higher despite structural decline
(as I imagine folks like @arnabdatta.bsky.social and @skandaamarnath.bsky.social have thought about)
(as I imagine folks like @arnabdatta.bsky.social and @skandaamarnath.bsky.social have thought about)
December 6, 2024 at 8:21 PM
As oil becomes stranded asset, it's going to get harder to justify investment, so future oil spikes may be even higher despite structural decline
(as I imagine folks like @arnabdatta.bsky.social and @skandaamarnath.bsky.social have thought about)
(as I imagine folks like @arnabdatta.bsky.social and @skandaamarnath.bsky.social have thought about)
Reposted
Stephen Poloz, the former governor of the Bank of Canada, says Canada is in a recession.
Poloz says consumption has being flattered by an increase in immigration
financialpost.com/news/economy...
Poloz says consumption has being flattered by an increase in immigration
financialpost.com/news/economy...
'We're in a recession,' says former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz
Former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz says economy's weakness has been masked by strong population growth. Read more
financialpost.com
December 6, 2024 at 12:47 AM
Stephen Poloz, the former governor of the Bank of Canada, says Canada is in a recession.
Poloz says consumption has being flattered by an increase in immigration
financialpost.com/news/economy...
Poloz says consumption has being flattered by an increase in immigration
financialpost.com/news/economy...
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Reposted
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Anyway, it took three kicks of the mule (RBG, Feinstein, Biden), but there's finally some Dem seriousness about getting rid of their leaders/chairs before rigor mortis sets in.
December 5, 2024 at 12:32 AM
Anyway, it took three kicks of the mule (RBG, Feinstein, Biden), but there's finally some Dem seriousness about getting rid of their leaders/chairs before rigor mortis sets in.
Reposted
You gotta love the irony in macro. Ignore the banks -they blow themselves up. Worry about inflation being too low, it hits 50-year highs. Ask for fiscal stimulus, now you cant rein it in. Core euro lectures the periphery for a decade, now they're the ones with the shit economies & unstable politics.
December 5, 2024 at 8:14 AM
You gotta love the irony in macro. Ignore the banks -they blow themselves up. Worry about inflation being too low, it hits 50-year highs. Ask for fiscal stimulus, now you cant rein it in. Core euro lectures the periphery for a decade, now they're the ones with the shit economies & unstable politics.