Matthias
@ulumulu.bsky.social
All about elections and polling in the EU.
Based in Brussels, In love with bad puns. Usually grumpy.
Based in Brussels, In love with bad puns. Usually grumpy.
Why those countries specifically?
“Austria, Hungary, Italy, and Poland are listed as countries the U.S. should “work more with…with the goal of pulling them away from the [European Union].”“
www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...
www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...
‘Make Europe Great Again’ and more from a longer version of the National Security Strategy
A fuller version reviewed by Defense One outlines the Trump administration’s plans for shedding old relationships and creating new ones.
www.defenseone.com
December 10, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Why those countries specifically?
Reposted by Matthias
Great data. I noticed in my data collection on the Council of the EU that the number of legislative act it passes per year keeps falling each legislative period since at least 2009. But this data implies that the regulations & directives individually get deeper.
The EU 🇪🇺 now adopts fewer legal acts per year, but the regulatory load inside them keeps growing 📈
A new @jeppjournal.bsky.social article by Brandsma et al. measures regulation by counting actual regulatory statements (“Companies shall…”).
I plotted their data: fewer acts, more obligations.
A new @jeppjournal.bsky.social article by Brandsma et al. measures regulation by counting actual regulatory statements (“Companies shall…”).
I plotted their data: fewer acts, more obligations.
December 10, 2025 at 8:16 AM
Great data. I noticed in my data collection on the Council of the EU that the number of legislative act it passes per year keeps falling each legislative period since at least 2009. But this data implies that the regulations & directives individually get deeper.
Reposted by Matthias
That was a bit under the radar of international news these days, but couldn’t be taken for granted:
French social security financing bill adopted after knife-edge vote
French social security financing bill adopted after knife-edge vote
A narrow National Assembly vote hands Lecornu a fragile budget victory
dlvr.it
December 9, 2025 at 7:43 PM
That was a bit under the radar of international news these days, but couldn’t be taken for granted:
Nice video about the protests in Bulgaria from TLDR News EU
youtu.be/5YgS63UZENs?...
youtu.be/5YgS63UZENs?...
Why Bulgaria’s Political Crisis is Getting Worse
YouTube video by TLDR News EU
youtu.be
December 9, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Nice video about the protests in Bulgaria from TLDR News EU
youtu.be/5YgS63UZENs?...
youtu.be/5YgS63UZENs?...
Reposted by Matthias
Possibly the most self-destructive reaction towards the US antagonism against the EU is by national leaders offering national partnerships.
This is exactly the kind of avenue for the US/Trump to split Europe and reign over smaller European countries.
This is exactly the kind of avenue for the US/Trump to split Europe and reign over smaller European countries.
December 9, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Possibly the most self-destructive reaction towards the US antagonism against the EU is by national leaders offering national partnerships.
This is exactly the kind of avenue for the US/Trump to split Europe and reign over smaller European countries.
This is exactly the kind of avenue for the US/Trump to split Europe and reign over smaller European countries.
VdL- vs Venezuela- vs Maize-majority are great additions to the Brussels bubble vocabulary.
Maybe we need to find other names?
Centre (EPP, S&D, Greens, Renew)
Blue fan group (EPP, ECR, PfE, ESN)
limping horseshoe (Left, Greens, S&D + ECR, PfE, ESN)
Maybe we need to find other names?
Centre (EPP, S&D, Greens, Renew)
Blue fan group (EPP, ECR, PfE, ESN)
limping horseshoe (Left, Greens, S&D + ECR, PfE, ESN)
November 2025 was a month of much upheaval in the European Parliament. For the first time, a major piece of legislation was adopted by a centre-right-to-far-right majority – but other alliances also played a role.
The #EUanalytics review by NICOLAI VON ONDARZA
The #EUanalytics review by NICOLAI VON ONDARZA
EU analytics – November 2025 review: The breakdown of the Cordon Sanitaire amid three different majorities
Ein Blog über die Demokratie in Europa
www.foederalist.eu
December 8, 2025 at 9:00 AM
VdL- vs Venezuela- vs Maize-majority are great additions to the Brussels bubble vocabulary.
Maybe we need to find other names?
Centre (EPP, S&D, Greens, Renew)
Blue fan group (EPP, ECR, PfE, ESN)
limping horseshoe (Left, Greens, S&D + ECR, PfE, ESN)
Maybe we need to find other names?
Centre (EPP, S&D, Greens, Renew)
Blue fan group (EPP, ECR, PfE, ESN)
limping horseshoe (Left, Greens, S&D + ECR, PfE, ESN)
First exit poll from Bukarest
Good margin for PNL (EPP) and PSD (PES)
Good margin for PNL (EPP) and PSD (PES)
December 7, 2025 at 7:22 PM
First exit poll from Bukarest
Good margin for PNL (EPP) and PSD (PES)
Good margin for PNL (EPP) and PSD (PES)
Reposted by Matthias
It begins.
😬
😬
Romania: (Bucharest mayoral election)
Turnout at 1:00 PM EET
2020: 15.38%
2024: 16.43%
2025: 13.17%
Source: Central electoral bureau
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
#Romania
Turnout at 1:00 PM EET
2020: 15.38%
2024: 16.43%
2025: 13.17%
Source: Central electoral bureau
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
#Romania
December 7, 2025 at 11:09 AM
It begins.
😬
😬
Reposted by Matthias
Romania, AtlasIntel poll:
Teodorovici (*) and Gheorghe (DREPT→RE) dropped out of the race
Bucharest mayoral election
Alexandrescu (*-ECR): 25% (+2)
Băluță (PSD-S&D): 25% (+2)
...
+/- vs. 27–30 November 2025
Fieldwork: 01-05 December 2025
Sample size: 2,188
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
Teodorovici (*) and Gheorghe (DREPT→RE) dropped out of the race
Bucharest mayoral election
Alexandrescu (*-ECR): 25% (+2)
Băluță (PSD-S&D): 25% (+2)
...
+/- vs. 27–30 November 2025
Fieldwork: 01-05 December 2025
Sample size: 2,188
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
December 5, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Romania, AtlasIntel poll:
Teodorovici (*) and Gheorghe (DREPT→RE) dropped out of the race
Bucharest mayoral election
Alexandrescu (*-ECR): 25% (+2)
Băluță (PSD-S&D): 25% (+2)
...
+/- vs. 27–30 November 2025
Fieldwork: 01-05 December 2025
Sample size: 2,188
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
Teodorovici (*) and Gheorghe (DREPT→RE) dropped out of the race
Bucharest mayoral election
Alexandrescu (*-ECR): 25% (+2)
Băluță (PSD-S&D): 25% (+2)
...
+/- vs. 27–30 November 2025
Fieldwork: 01-05 December 2025
Sample size: 2,188
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
“The piece treats Europe as a sort of other, one that is a model of what not to do,” he said, adding that it underscored that the United States was not isolationist, but rather “unilateralist.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/w...
Trump Administration Says Europe Faces ‘Civilizational Erasure’
www.nytimes.com
December 5, 2025 at 5:33 PM
“The piece treats Europe as a sort of other, one that is a model of what not to do,” he said, adding that it underscored that the United States was not isolationist, but rather “unilateralist.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/w...
Reposted by Matthias
The #DamascusDossier investigation is now live.
The exposé includes new details of former Syrian president Bashar Assad's vast system for the detention, torture and murder of Syrian citizens — and the international forces that financed his regime.
Read our stories:
The exposé includes new details of former Syrian president Bashar Assad's vast system for the detention, torture and murder of Syrian citizens — and the international forces that financed his regime.
Read our stories:
Damascus Dossier - ICIJ
Tens of thousands of secret photos and intelligence files expose the Assad regime’s killing machine.
www.icij.org
December 4, 2025 at 5:21 AM
The #DamascusDossier investigation is now live.
The exposé includes new details of former Syrian president Bashar Assad's vast system for the detention, torture and murder of Syrian citizens — and the international forces that financed his regime.
Read our stories:
The exposé includes new details of former Syrian president Bashar Assad's vast system for the detention, torture and murder of Syrian citizens — and the international forces that financed his regime.
Read our stories:
Reposted by Matthias
Arrows are tricky. For us, as the designer of the visual, it will be super clear what it means. But for someone looking at our visual for the first time, it can be highly ambiguous. Depending on the reader, the same arrow can mean sequence, zoom, range, label, movement,...
1/2
1/2
December 4, 2025 at 8:17 AM
Arrows are tricky. For us, as the designer of the visual, it will be super clear what it means. But for someone looking at our visual for the first time, it can be highly ambiguous. Depending on the reader, the same arrow can mean sequence, zoom, range, label, movement,...
1/2
1/2
Perhaps the pendulum will swing back to the good old face-to-face mode 👀
The first wave of AI survey-takers may not distort much in the beginning. Their answers often mimic patterns established by existing polling. But a more insidious feedback loop will emerge, if it has not already
AIs could turn opinion polls into gibberish
Large language models can answer surveys and pass the tests to check that a respondent is human
econ.st
December 3, 2025 at 10:33 AM
Perhaps the pendulum will swing back to the good old face-to-face mode 👀
No Bucha-rest for the wicked.
Election season is not over yet in the EU.
Election season is not over yet in the EU.
Romania, AtlasIntel poll:
Bucharest mayoral election
Băluță (PSD-S&D): 25% (+4)
Alexandrescu (*-ECR): 25% (+5)
Ciucu (PNL-EPP): 23% (+2)
Drulă (USR-RE): 17% (-3)
...
+/- vs. 03-14 November 2025
Fieldwork: 27-30 November 2025
Sample size: 2,964
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
Bucharest mayoral election
Băluță (PSD-S&D): 25% (+4)
Alexandrescu (*-ECR): 25% (+5)
Ciucu (PNL-EPP): 23% (+2)
Drulă (USR-RE): 17% (-3)
...
+/- vs. 03-14 November 2025
Fieldwork: 27-30 November 2025
Sample size: 2,964
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
December 3, 2025 at 10:19 AM
No Bucha-rest for the wicked.
Election season is not over yet in the EU.
Election season is not over yet in the EU.
Reposted by Matthias
For me this really brings home the US dominance of things. You’re moving between countries? You speak several languages?* What an odd idea!
When in Europe it’s literally the norm.
*yes I know in the US that should also be a thing with Spanish. Alas.
bsky.app/profile/ulum...
When in Europe it’s literally the norm.
*yes I know in the US that should also be a thing with Spanish. Alas.
bsky.app/profile/ulum...
Somehow none of the tech companies seem to realise that people might speak more than one language. This automated translation feature is so annoying on all platforms
November 30, 2025 at 8:30 AM
For me this really brings home the US dominance of things. You’re moving between countries? You speak several languages?* What an odd idea!
When in Europe it’s literally the norm.
*yes I know in the US that should also be a thing with Spanish. Alas.
bsky.app/profile/ulum...
When in Europe it’s literally the norm.
*yes I know in the US that should also be a thing with Spanish. Alas.
bsky.app/profile/ulum...
Reposted by Matthias
This hex-map breaks down the share of 15-24 year-olds in Germany and the regional contrast is hard to miss.
Eastern Germany shows much lower shares except for larger cities, while many western and southern areas have noticeably more young people.
#30DayMapChallenge Day 25: Hexagons #ggplot2
Eastern Germany shows much lower shares except for larger cities, while many western and southern areas have noticeably more young people.
#30DayMapChallenge Day 25: Hexagons #ggplot2
November 25, 2025 at 8:17 PM
This hex-map breaks down the share of 15-24 year-olds in Germany and the regional contrast is hard to miss.
Eastern Germany shows much lower shares except for larger cities, while many western and southern areas have noticeably more young people.
#30DayMapChallenge Day 25: Hexagons #ggplot2
Eastern Germany shows much lower shares except for larger cities, while many western and southern areas have noticeably more young people.
#30DayMapChallenge Day 25: Hexagons #ggplot2
Rolf Zuckowski > Mariah Carey index
November 14, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Rolf Zuckowski > Mariah Carey index
Reposted by Matthias
So there’s a website called Deer Of St Nicholas which posts Christmas wish letters from Ukrainian children who had their childhood stolen by the war, anyone can pick a child and get them their present and it’s that time of the year again to achingly scroll it for hours again
November 7, 2025 at 8:21 AM
So there’s a website called Deer Of St Nicholas which posts Christmas wish letters from Ukrainian children who had their childhood stolen by the war, anyone can pick a child and get them their present and it’s that time of the year again to achingly scroll it for hours again
Quite interesting analysis, showing support for the euro tends to grow after adoption.
November 5, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Quite interesting analysis, showing support for the euro tends to grow after adoption.
Reposted by Matthias
A reflection of the (party) politicisation of the EU - in previous budget fights, when the Parliament pushed against the Commission and/or Council, it was seen as an inter-instititional fight.
Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.
Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.
November 5, 2025 at 8:32 AM
A reflection of the (party) politicisation of the EU - in previous budget fights, when the Parliament pushed against the Commission and/or Council, it was seen as an inter-instititional fight.
Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.
Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.
“We’re watching Rwanda-level mass extermination of people who are trapped inside,” said Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of the research group, in comments to AFP news agency. “The level, speed and totality of violence in Darfur is unlike anything I’ve seen.”
sudanwarmonitor.com/p/fall-of-el...
sudanwarmonitor.com/p/fall-of-el...
Thousands killed and others escape in chaotic rout of El Fasher defenders
RSF fighters film ethnic killings and boast over war crimes
sudanwarmonitor.com
October 30, 2025 at 7:31 PM
“We’re watching Rwanda-level mass extermination of people who are trapped inside,” said Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of the research group, in comments to AFP news agency. “The level, speed and totality of violence in Darfur is unlike anything I’ve seen.”
sudanwarmonitor.com/p/fall-of-el...
sudanwarmonitor.com/p/fall-of-el...
Reposted by Matthias
With all the caveats that the far right hasn't been weakened, only splintered in the Netherlands, it's still very good to see an election where liberal democracy is not on the line and a government with a pro-European outlook is back in sight
October 30, 2025 at 11:32 AM
With all the caveats that the far right hasn't been weakened, only splintered in the Netherlands, it's still very good to see an election where liberal democracy is not on the line and a government with a pro-European outlook is back in sight
Reposted by Matthias
AAPOR's report on the accuracy of 2024 election polls is now out. Polls did better than in 2024 and 2016, but had trouble reaching Trump voters in red areas, and slightly underestimated turnout and Trump support among 2020 non-voters. Avg bias of 2.7 pts. aapor.org/wp-content/u...
aapor.org
October 29, 2025 at 5:29 PM
AAPOR's report on the accuracy of 2024 election polls is now out. Polls did better than in 2024 and 2016, but had trouble reaching Trump voters in red areas, and slightly underestimated turnout and Trump support among 2020 non-voters. Avg bias of 2.7 pts. aapor.org/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Matthias
Frans Timmermans has just resigned as leader of the Greens/Labour alliance, following a poor election performance.
October 29, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Frans Timmermans has just resigned as leader of the Greens/Labour alliance, following a poor election performance.