Gesine Weber
@gesineweber.bsky.social
European security & defence, global order, EU in US-China competition.
Senior Researcher, Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich. PhD Defence Studies, King’s College London. Into running, matcha, 中文. Views my own.
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com
Senior Researcher, Center for Security Studies, ETH Zürich. PhD Defence Studies, King’s College London. Into running, matcha, 中文. Views my own.
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com
Now that everyone is talking about Greenland and mutual defence in Europe... it's perhaps a good time to read my piece for @csds.bsky.social again: csds.vub.be/publication/...
Mutual Defence in the European Union? The Imperative of Article 42.7 in Case the United States Abandons European Defence - CSDS
When Europeans discuss mutual defence, they mostly think about NATO’s Article 5. The mutual assistance clause in the European Union (EU) treaties is often overlooked, but it deserves more attention.Eu...
csds.vub.be
January 7, 2026 at 8:17 AM
Now that everyone is talking about Greenland and mutual defence in Europe... it's perhaps a good time to read my piece for @csds.bsky.social again: csds.vub.be/publication/...
Well worth your time (again).
Noting the current mood, I’ll re-share this piece I wrote back in February 2025 on European NATO without the USA. The points still stand firm despite developments.
crackingdefence.substack.com/p/nato-witho...
crackingdefence.substack.com/p/nato-witho...
NATO without the USA?
A discussion on European defence without American power
crackingdefence.substack.com
January 6, 2026 at 6:53 PM
Well worth your time (again).
Agreed. Not sure whether DC would prioritise NATO over Greenland?
These comments -- "Danish prime minister says a US takeover of Greenland would mark the end of NATO" -- are getting a lot of press... but, given the politics of DC today, I doubt they form the deterrent Danish leaders hope for. DNK needs a different line of argument. www.npr.org/2026/01/06/n...
Danish prime minister says a US takeover of Greenland would mark the end of NATO
Her comments came in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's renewed call for the strategic, mineral-rich Arctic island to come under U.S. control in the aftermath of the weekend military operation ...
www.npr.org
January 6, 2026 at 6:39 PM
Agreed. Not sure whether DC would prioritise NATO over Greenland?
Clear words which are very much needed here.
Europe’s failure to condemn Trump’s illegal aggression in Venezuela isn’t just wrong – it’s stupid. My piece @theguardian.com www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Europe’s failure to condemn Trump’s illegal aggression in Venezuela isn’t just wrong – it’s stupid | Nathalie Tocci
The more European countries act as colonies, unable and unwilling to stand up to Trump, the more they’ll be treated as such, says Guardian Europe columnist Nathalie Tocci
www.theguardian.com
January 6, 2026 at 10:14 AM
Clear words which are very much needed here.
Reposted by Gesine Weber
'Starmer’s allies admit that persuading Brussels to give the UK preferential access to the single market will be difficult.
'In Brussels there was a sense of déjà vu amid warnings that — as with... Boris Johnson’s failed attempts to “cherry pick” access to...
www.ft.com/content/0808...
'In Brussels there was a sense of déjà vu amid warnings that — as with... Boris Johnson’s failed attempts to “cherry pick” access to...
www.ft.com/content/0808...
Starmer may want closer ties with the EU — but will Brussels play ball?
The PM is trying to reassure pro-Europeans in Labour that a reset is coming, but EU officials say the timing is poor
www.ft.com
January 6, 2026 at 9:40 AM
'Starmer’s allies admit that persuading Brussels to give the UK preferential access to the single market will be difficult.
'In Brussels there was a sense of déjà vu amid warnings that — as with... Boris Johnson’s failed attempts to “cherry pick” access to...
www.ft.com/content/0808...
'In Brussels there was a sense of déjà vu amid warnings that — as with... Boris Johnson’s failed attempts to “cherry pick” access to...
www.ft.com/content/0808...
This is a masterclass of "IR theory in emojis":
International Relation Theory, the 👍 & 👎 of this options :
🌊🏄♀️ Soft balancing
🚂🚃 Bandwagoning
👉🇮🇳 Hedging
🙈🙊 Hiding
🙇♂️😒 Accommodation
🛡🦔 Or Smart combination ( #StrategicAutonomy, De-risking, Internal balancing & Rearmament + Acknowledge threats !)
[↓See the comment for a different perspective 🐘🧠]
🌊🏄♀️ Soft balancing
🚂🚃 Bandwagoning
👉🇮🇳 Hedging
🙈🙊 Hiding
🙇♂️😒 Accommodation
🛡🦔 Or Smart combination ( #StrategicAutonomy, De-risking, Internal balancing & Rearmament + Acknowledge threats !)
[↓See the comment for a different perspective 🐘🧠]
What happens when the formerly benign hegemon turns hostile? Other powers have options - but not all realist options are realistic.
My new piece for Geopolitical Europe:
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/hegemonic-...
My new piece for Geopolitical Europe:
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/hegemonic-...
January 5, 2026 at 4:32 PM
This is a masterclass of "IR theory in emojis":
Pretty cool opportunity:
We're hiring!
We are seeking an Early Career Policy Fellow to work on Nuclear Deterrence, Behavioural Bias, and UK Nuclear Policy.
UK-based remote
Fixed Term Contract: 18 months, 37.5 hours per week
£43,334.54
Apply by 9th January 2026
Details below ⤵️
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/job/early-ca...
We are seeking an Early Career Policy Fellow to work on Nuclear Deterrence, Behavioural Bias, and UK Nuclear Policy.
UK-based remote
Fixed Term Contract: 18 months, 37.5 hours per week
£43,334.54
Apply by 9th January 2026
Details below ⤵️
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/job/early-ca...
Early Career Policy Fellow – Nuclear Deterrence, Behavioural Bias & UK Nuclear Policy
Purpose of Role:
The European Leadership Network (ELN) is seeking to appoint an early-career Policy Fellow to join two new research and engagement projects examining nuclear deterrence through...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
January 5, 2026 at 4:30 PM
Pretty cool opportunity:
Just to give you an idea of the European debate this morning... headline captures it well: www.politico.eu/newsletter/b...
Is Greenland next?
Presented by Mediterranea Saving Humans By NICHOLAS VINOCUR PRESENTED BY Send tips here | Contact us on X @gerardofortuna @NicholasVinocur | Listen to Playbook and view in your browser GREETINGS. I…
www.politico.eu
January 5, 2026 at 8:11 AM
Just to give you an idea of the European debate this morning... headline captures it well: www.politico.eu/newsletter/b...
NB: not an *EU* statement, a statement by EU High Representative Kallas with the support for 26 member states.
My statement supported by 26 EU Member States on the aftermath of the U.S. intervention in Venezuela ↓
January 5, 2026 at 7:31 AM
NB: not an *EU* statement, a statement by EU High Representative Kallas with the support for 26 member states.
What happens when the formerly benign hegemon turns hostile? Other powers have options - but not all realist options are realistic.
My new piece for Geopolitical Europe:
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/hegemonic-...
My new piece for Geopolitical Europe:
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/hegemonic-...
Hegemonic hostility: Europe's realist(ic) options
5 January 2026
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 7:27 AM
What happens when the formerly benign hegemon turns hostile? Other powers have options - but not all realist options are realistic.
My new piece for Geopolitical Europe:
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/hegemonic-...
My new piece for Geopolitical Europe:
geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/hegemonic-...
C'est la tradition pour commencer la nouvelle année: mes 10 points sur la défense européenne en 2026 dans @grandcontinent.bsky.social:
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2026/01/0...
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2026/01/0...
10 points sur la défense européenne en 2026
En bombardant le Venezuela et en capturant son président Maduro, les États-Unis viennent de commencer l’année en mettant en action le corollaire Trump de la doctrine Monroe sur « leur hémisphère ». A...
legrandcontinent.eu
January 4, 2026 at 4:09 PM
C'est la tradition pour commencer la nouvelle année: mes 10 points sur la défense européenne en 2026 dans @grandcontinent.bsky.social:
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2026/01/0...
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2026/01/0...
Also, if you want to read something else than news and push messages, I’m resharing this here: open.substack.com/pub/geopolit...
5 mindset shifts for better European strategy on the US
16 December 2025
open.substack.com
January 3, 2026 at 7:45 PM
Also, if you want to read something else than news and push messages, I’m resharing this here: open.substack.com/pub/geopolit...
This is your reminder to disconnect on weekends and do things that are good for you.
(Note: I went for a run & workout and was off-screen for two hours, didn’t follow Venezuela, won’t do this on the weekend, and I am almost certain it won’t harm me.)
(Note: I went for a run & workout and was off-screen for two hours, didn’t follow Venezuela, won’t do this on the weekend, and I am almost certain it won’t harm me.)
January 3, 2026 at 12:10 PM
This is your reminder to disconnect on weekends and do things that are good for you.
(Note: I went for a run & workout and was off-screen for two hours, didn’t follow Venezuela, won’t do this on the weekend, and I am almost certain it won’t harm me.)
(Note: I went for a run & workout and was off-screen for two hours, didn’t follow Venezuela, won’t do this on the weekend, and I am almost certain it won’t harm me.)
Also goes for Macron, Merz, von der Leyen & Co.
Keir Starmer should condemn Trump’s illegal action in Venezuela.
Maduro is a brutal and illegitimate dictator, but unlawful attacks like this make us all less safe.
Trump is giving a green light to the likes of Putin and Xi to attack other countries with impunity.
Maduro is a brutal and illegitimate dictator, but unlawful attacks like this make us all less safe.
Trump is giving a green light to the likes of Putin and Xi to attack other countries with impunity.
January 3, 2026 at 12:09 PM
Also goes for Macron, Merz, von der Leyen & Co.
You see the images and news from this tragedy - and hear people still use fireworks in Zurich throughout the day, even two days after New Year’s Eve…
EN DIRECT, incendie en Suisse, à Crans-Montana : le dernier bilan fait état de 40 personnes tuées et 119 blessées, des « bougies et des feux de Bengale » au cœur de l’enquête
EN DIRECT, incendie en Suisse, à Crans-Montana : le dernier bilan fait état de 40 personnes tuées et 119 blessées, des « bougies et des feux de Bengale » au cœur de l’enquête
Le dernier bilan fait état de 40 morts et 119 blessées, selon la police cantonale valaisanne, selon qui « ces chiffres peuvent évoluer ». Beaucoup de blessés, parmi lesquels figurent 14 ressortissants français, ont été hospitalisés en France, Italie et Allemagne.
www.lemonde.fr
January 2, 2026 at 6:52 PM
You see the images and news from this tragedy - and hear people still use fireworks in Zurich throughout the day, even two days after New Year’s Eve…
Also something I see in all my private conversations. Though I would add that threat perceptions in the political elites in Paris, London, and Berlin have significantly changed - just not among the publics.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
Europe’s generals are warning people to prepare for war
But western European societies are in denial
www.economist.com
January 2, 2026 at 3:54 PM
Also something I see in all my private conversations. Though I would add that threat perceptions in the political elites in Paris, London, and Berlin have significantly changed - just not among the publics.
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
One more in the euro area now. Also noteworthy that there were quite a lot of protests against the euro, but many of them note widely covered in Germany/ France/ UK (Deutschlandfunk had a good reporting on this earlier this week).
www.euractiv.com/news/bulgari...
www.euractiv.com/news/bulgari...
www.euractiv.com
January 2, 2026 at 3:42 PM
One more in the euro area now. Also noteworthy that there were quite a lot of protests against the euro, but many of them note widely covered in Germany/ France/ UK (Deutschlandfunk had a good reporting on this earlier this week).
www.euractiv.com/news/bulgari...
www.euractiv.com/news/bulgari...
If you hadn't had a tiny moment of joy today, this fox will make your Friday better. And if you already had a great morning, the fox will make it even better.
Good morning to a fantastic 1st #Foxfriday in 2026. I met this guy on an early morning tour-and guess what? He looks very much like an injured adolescent fox we took care of a few years back. So glad to see him again-isn't he looking great? #foxoftheday.
[📷 Nikon D850 f/8,0 1/250 600mm ISO10000]
[📷 Nikon D850 f/8,0 1/250 600mm ISO10000]
January 2, 2026 at 9:51 AM
If you hadn't had a tiny moment of joy today, this fox will make your Friday better. And if you already had a great morning, the fox will make it even better.
I agree that the EU and the UK need a bolder approach to cooperation (and to swallow their pride, on both sides), but single market access for the UK vs. free movement to UK for Europeans seems a bit unbalanced to me...
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
Britain and the EU should be bolder in getting closer
How post-Brexit Britain should approach relations with its nearest and biggest market
www.economist.com
January 2, 2026 at 7:49 AM
I agree that the EU and the UK need a bolder approach to cooperation (and to swallow their pride, on both sides), but single market access for the UK vs. free movement to UK for Europeans seems a bit unbalanced to me...
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
That is how you create a European public sphere: publish multilingual reading lists for 2026 with different perspectives on and from Europe. Bien joué, @grandcontinent.bsky.social !
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2026/01/0...
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2026/01/0...
19 livres à lire en janvier 2026 | Le Grand Continent
Alors que s’ouvre une nouvelle année, les bonnes résolutions commencent souvent dans les rayonnages de vos libraires. Nous avons sélectionné les essais à ne pas manquer qui paraîtront ce mois-ci. No...
legrandcontinent.eu
January 2, 2026 at 7:39 AM
That is how you create a European public sphere: publish multilingual reading lists for 2026 with different perspectives on and from Europe. Bien joué, @grandcontinent.bsky.social !
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2026/01/0...
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2026/01/0...
Happy 2026 - even starting with a rare day of sun in Zurich!
January 1, 2026 at 1:12 PM
Happy 2026 - even starting with a rare day of sun in Zurich!
I have a suggestion for you, @politico.eu: how about adding a list with "the future of Europe" or so, which broadens the focus a bit beyond government/ leadership and includes a few more people who are 1) young, 2) not men, and 3) not white? A bit more representative of European societies...
Earlier this month, we revealed our annual #POLITICO28 list of the people we predict will be shaking and shaping Europe in the year ahead.
Explore the ranking: politi.co/4ptqnOt
Explore the ranking: politi.co/4ptqnOt
December 31, 2025 at 1:26 PM
I have a suggestion for you, @politico.eu: how about adding a list with "the future of Europe" or so, which broadens the focus a bit beyond government/ leadership and includes a few more people who are 1) young, 2) not men, and 3) not white? A bit more representative of European societies...
European reactions: let’s start with EU
“China’s recent military exercise further increases cross-strait tensions and endangers international peace and stability.”
www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/spokesp...
“China’s recent military exercise further increases cross-strait tensions and endangers international peace and stability.”
www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/spokesp...
December 30, 2025 at 5:47 PM
European reactions: let’s start with EU
“China’s recent military exercise further increases cross-strait tensions and endangers international peace and stability.”
www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/spokesp...
“China’s recent military exercise further increases cross-strait tensions and endangers international peace and stability.”
www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/spokesp...
I fully understand that Ukraine pushes for more - but I also doubt that there is anything (except perhaps a resource extraction agreement for the same time?) that could make the US agree?
US offers ‘strong’ 15-year security guarantees as Kyiv pushes for longer
US offers ‘strong’ 15-year security guarantees as Kyiv pushes for longer
The comments come after fresh talks between Washington and Kyiv on Sunday
dlvr.it
December 29, 2025 at 10:03 AM
I fully understand that Ukraine pushes for more - but I also doubt that there is anything (except perhaps a resource extraction agreement for the same time?) that could make the US agree?
