Matthias
@ulumulu.bsky.social
All about elections and polling in the EU.
Based in Brussels, In love with bad puns. Usually grumpy.
Based in Brussels, In love with bad puns. Usually grumpy.
VdL- vs Venezuela- vs Maize-majority are great additions to the Brussels bubble vocabulary.
Maybe we need to find other names?
Centre (EPP, S&D, Greens, Renew)
Blue fan group (EPP, ECR, PfE, ESN)
limping horseshoe (Left, Greens, S&D + ECR, PfE, ESN)
Maybe we need to find other names?
Centre (EPP, S&D, Greens, Renew)
Blue fan group (EPP, ECR, PfE, ESN)
limping horseshoe (Left, Greens, S&D + ECR, PfE, ESN)
November 2025 was a month of much upheaval in the European Parliament. For the first time, a major piece of legislation was adopted by a centre-right-to-far-right majority – but other alliances also played a role.
The #EUanalytics review by NICOLAI VON ONDARZA
The #EUanalytics review by NICOLAI VON ONDARZA
EU analytics – November 2025 review: The breakdown of the Cordon Sanitaire amid three different majorities
Ein Blog über die Demokratie in Europa
www.foederalist.eu
December 8, 2025 at 9:00 AM
VdL- vs Venezuela- vs Maize-majority are great additions to the Brussels bubble vocabulary.
Maybe we need to find other names?
Centre (EPP, S&D, Greens, Renew)
Blue fan group (EPP, ECR, PfE, ESN)
limping horseshoe (Left, Greens, S&D + ECR, PfE, ESN)
Maybe we need to find other names?
Centre (EPP, S&D, Greens, Renew)
Blue fan group (EPP, ECR, PfE, ESN)
limping horseshoe (Left, Greens, S&D + ECR, PfE, ESN)
First exit poll from Bukarest
Good margin for PNL (EPP) and PSD (PES)
Good margin for PNL (EPP) and PSD (PES)
December 7, 2025 at 7:22 PM
First exit poll from Bukarest
Good margin for PNL (EPP) and PSD (PES)
Good margin for PNL (EPP) and PSD (PES)
Reposted by Matthias
It begins.
😬
😬
Romania: (Bucharest mayoral election)
Turnout at 1:00 PM EET
2020: 15.38%
2024: 16.43%
2025: 13.17%
Source: Central electoral bureau
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
#Romania
Turnout at 1:00 PM EET
2020: 15.38%
2024: 16.43%
2025: 13.17%
Source: Central electoral bureau
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
#Romania
December 7, 2025 at 11:09 AM
It begins.
😬
😬
Reposted by Matthias
Romania, AtlasIntel poll:
Teodorovici (*) and Gheorghe (DREPT→RE) dropped out of the race
Bucharest mayoral election
Alexandrescu (*-ECR): 25% (+2)
Băluță (PSD-S&D): 25% (+2)
...
+/- vs. 27–30 November 2025
Fieldwork: 01-05 December 2025
Sample size: 2,188
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
Teodorovici (*) and Gheorghe (DREPT→RE) dropped out of the race
Bucharest mayoral election
Alexandrescu (*-ECR): 25% (+2)
Băluță (PSD-S&D): 25% (+2)
...
+/- vs. 27–30 November 2025
Fieldwork: 01-05 December 2025
Sample size: 2,188
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
December 5, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Romania, AtlasIntel poll:
Teodorovici (*) and Gheorghe (DREPT→RE) dropped out of the race
Bucharest mayoral election
Alexandrescu (*-ECR): 25% (+2)
Băluță (PSD-S&D): 25% (+2)
...
+/- vs. 27–30 November 2025
Fieldwork: 01-05 December 2025
Sample size: 2,188
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
Teodorovici (*) and Gheorghe (DREPT→RE) dropped out of the race
Bucharest mayoral election
Alexandrescu (*-ECR): 25% (+2)
Băluță (PSD-S&D): 25% (+2)
...
+/- vs. 27–30 November 2025
Fieldwork: 01-05 December 2025
Sample size: 2,188
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
“The piece treats Europe as a sort of other, one that is a model of what not to do,” he said, adding that it underscored that the United States was not isolationist, but rather “unilateralist.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/w...
Trump Administration Says Europe Faces ‘Civilizational Erasure’
www.nytimes.com
December 5, 2025 at 5:33 PM
“The piece treats Europe as a sort of other, one that is a model of what not to do,” he said, adding that it underscored that the United States was not isolationist, but rather “unilateralist.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/w...
Reposted by Matthias
The #DamascusDossier investigation is now live.
The exposé includes new details of former Syrian president Bashar Assad's vast system for the detention, torture and murder of Syrian citizens — and the international forces that financed his regime.
Read our stories:
The exposé includes new details of former Syrian president Bashar Assad's vast system for the detention, torture and murder of Syrian citizens — and the international forces that financed his regime.
Read our stories:
Damascus Dossier - ICIJ
Tens of thousands of secret photos and intelligence files expose the Assad regime’s killing machine.
www.icij.org
December 4, 2025 at 5:21 AM
The #DamascusDossier investigation is now live.
The exposé includes new details of former Syrian president Bashar Assad's vast system for the detention, torture and murder of Syrian citizens — and the international forces that financed his regime.
Read our stories:
The exposé includes new details of former Syrian president Bashar Assad's vast system for the detention, torture and murder of Syrian citizens — and the international forces that financed his regime.
Read our stories:
Reposted by Matthias
Arrows are tricky. For us, as the designer of the visual, it will be super clear what it means. But for someone looking at our visual for the first time, it can be highly ambiguous. Depending on the reader, the same arrow can mean sequence, zoom, range, label, movement,...
1/2
1/2
December 4, 2025 at 8:17 AM
Arrows are tricky. For us, as the designer of the visual, it will be super clear what it means. But for someone looking at our visual for the first time, it can be highly ambiguous. Depending on the reader, the same arrow can mean sequence, zoom, range, label, movement,...
1/2
1/2
Perhaps the pendulum will swing back to the good old face-to-face mode 👀
The first wave of AI survey-takers may not distort much in the beginning. Their answers often mimic patterns established by existing polling. But a more insidious feedback loop will emerge, if it has not already
AIs could turn opinion polls into gibberish
Large language models can answer surveys and pass the tests to check that a respondent is human
econ.st
December 3, 2025 at 10:33 AM
Perhaps the pendulum will swing back to the good old face-to-face mode 👀
No Bucha-rest for the wicked.
Election season is not over yet in the EU.
Election season is not over yet in the EU.
Romania, AtlasIntel poll:
Bucharest mayoral election
Băluță (PSD-S&D): 25% (+4)
Alexandrescu (*-ECR): 25% (+5)
Ciucu (PNL-EPP): 23% (+2)
Drulă (USR-RE): 17% (-3)
...
+/- vs. 03-14 November 2025
Fieldwork: 27-30 November 2025
Sample size: 2,964
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
Bucharest mayoral election
Băluță (PSD-S&D): 25% (+4)
Alexandrescu (*-ECR): 25% (+5)
Ciucu (PNL-EPP): 23% (+2)
Drulă (USR-RE): 17% (-3)
...
+/- vs. 03-14 November 2025
Fieldwork: 27-30 November 2025
Sample size: 2,964
➤ europeelects.eu/romania
December 3, 2025 at 10:19 AM
No Bucha-rest for the wicked.
Election season is not over yet in the EU.
Election season is not over yet in the EU.
Reposted by Matthias
For me this really brings home the US dominance of things. You’re moving between countries? You speak several languages?* What an odd idea!
When in Europe it’s literally the norm.
*yes I know in the US that should also be a thing with Spanish. Alas.
bsky.app/profile/ulum...
When in Europe it’s literally the norm.
*yes I know in the US that should also be a thing with Spanish. Alas.
bsky.app/profile/ulum...
Somehow none of the tech companies seem to realise that people might speak more than one language. This automated translation feature is so annoying on all platforms
November 30, 2025 at 8:30 AM
For me this really brings home the US dominance of things. You’re moving between countries? You speak several languages?* What an odd idea!
When in Europe it’s literally the norm.
*yes I know in the US that should also be a thing with Spanish. Alas.
bsky.app/profile/ulum...
When in Europe it’s literally the norm.
*yes I know in the US that should also be a thing with Spanish. Alas.
bsky.app/profile/ulum...
Reposted by Matthias
This hex-map breaks down the share of 15-24 year-olds in Germany and the regional contrast is hard to miss.
Eastern Germany shows much lower shares except for larger cities, while many western and southern areas have noticeably more young people.
#30DayMapChallenge Day 25: Hexagons #ggplot2
Eastern Germany shows much lower shares except for larger cities, while many western and southern areas have noticeably more young people.
#30DayMapChallenge Day 25: Hexagons #ggplot2
November 25, 2025 at 8:17 PM
This hex-map breaks down the share of 15-24 year-olds in Germany and the regional contrast is hard to miss.
Eastern Germany shows much lower shares except for larger cities, while many western and southern areas have noticeably more young people.
#30DayMapChallenge Day 25: Hexagons #ggplot2
Eastern Germany shows much lower shares except for larger cities, while many western and southern areas have noticeably more young people.
#30DayMapChallenge Day 25: Hexagons #ggplot2
Rolf Zuckowski > Mariah Carey index
November 14, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Rolf Zuckowski > Mariah Carey index
Reposted by Matthias
So there’s a website called Deer Of St Nicholas which posts Christmas wish letters from Ukrainian children who had their childhood stolen by the war, anyone can pick a child and get them their present and it’s that time of the year again to achingly scroll it for hours again
November 7, 2025 at 8:21 AM
So there’s a website called Deer Of St Nicholas which posts Christmas wish letters from Ukrainian children who had their childhood stolen by the war, anyone can pick a child and get them their present and it’s that time of the year again to achingly scroll it for hours again
Quite interesting analysis, showing support for the euro tends to grow after adoption.
November 5, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Quite interesting analysis, showing support for the euro tends to grow after adoption.
Reposted by Matthias
A reflection of the (party) politicisation of the EU - in previous budget fights, when the Parliament pushed against the Commission and/or Council, it was seen as an inter-instititional fight.
Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.
Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.
November 5, 2025 at 8:32 AM
A reflection of the (party) politicisation of the EU - in previous budget fights, when the Parliament pushed against the Commission and/or Council, it was seen as an inter-instititional fight.
Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.
Now, @politico.eu portrays it as "EPP vs EPP", "centre-right civil war", focusing squarely on the parties.
“We’re watching Rwanda-level mass extermination of people who are trapped inside,” said Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of the research group, in comments to AFP news agency. “The level, speed and totality of violence in Darfur is unlike anything I’ve seen.”
sudanwarmonitor.com/p/fall-of-el...
sudanwarmonitor.com/p/fall-of-el...
Thousands killed and others escape in chaotic rout of El Fasher defenders
RSF fighters film ethnic killings and boast over war crimes
sudanwarmonitor.com
October 30, 2025 at 7:31 PM
“We’re watching Rwanda-level mass extermination of people who are trapped inside,” said Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of the research group, in comments to AFP news agency. “The level, speed and totality of violence in Darfur is unlike anything I’ve seen.”
sudanwarmonitor.com/p/fall-of-el...
sudanwarmonitor.com/p/fall-of-el...
Reposted by Matthias
With all the caveats that the far right hasn't been weakened, only splintered in the Netherlands, it's still very good to see an election where liberal democracy is not on the line and a government with a pro-European outlook is back in sight
October 30, 2025 at 11:32 AM
With all the caveats that the far right hasn't been weakened, only splintered in the Netherlands, it's still very good to see an election where liberal democracy is not on the line and a government with a pro-European outlook is back in sight
Reposted by Matthias
AAPOR's report on the accuracy of 2024 election polls is now out. Polls did better than in 2024 and 2016, but had trouble reaching Trump voters in red areas, and slightly underestimated turnout and Trump support among 2020 non-voters. Avg bias of 2.7 pts. aapor.org/wp-content/u...
aapor.org
October 29, 2025 at 5:29 PM
AAPOR's report on the accuracy of 2024 election polls is now out. Polls did better than in 2024 and 2016, but had trouble reaching Trump voters in red areas, and slightly underestimated turnout and Trump support among 2020 non-voters. Avg bias of 2.7 pts. aapor.org/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Matthias
Frans Timmermans has just resigned as leader of the Greens/Labour alliance, following a poor election performance.
October 29, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Frans Timmermans has just resigned as leader of the Greens/Labour alliance, following a poor election performance.
Reposted by Matthias
Catalan separatist party Junts breaks relations with Sánchez’s Socialists
Catalan separatist party Junts breaks relations with Sánchez’s Socialists
Seven MPs from Junts underpin Sánchez’s minority government
dlvr.it
October 27, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Catalan separatist party Junts breaks relations with Sánchez’s Socialists
Reposted by Matthias
While the European Council in Brussels took the spotlight, this week's events in Strasbourg should set off alarm bells. The European Parliament slamming the brakes on the first “Omnibus” package isn’t just a hiccup – it’s a symptom of strain in the EU’s democratic engine. A thread 🧵
October 24, 2025 at 11:18 AM
While the European Council in Brussels took the spotlight, this week's events in Strasbourg should set off alarm bells. The European Parliament slamming the brakes on the first “Omnibus” package isn’t just a hiccup – it’s a symptom of strain in the EU’s democratic engine. A thread 🧵
Reposted by Matthias
🗳️ Dutch voters will elect a new parliament for the third time in just five years on October 29. Here's everything you need to know about the upcoming elections. 🇳🇱 My colleague Esmee and I wrote a short primer for @theconversation.com.
doi.org/10.64628/AB....
doi.org/10.64628/AB....
The Netherlands is trying to draw a line under a year of chaos with fresh elections – will it work?
Prime Minister Dick Schoof called fresh elections following the first collapse of his government, which would go on to fall a second time within a few months.
doi.org
October 21, 2025 at 8:09 PM
🗳️ Dutch voters will elect a new parliament for the third time in just five years on October 29. Here's everything you need to know about the upcoming elections. 🇳🇱 My colleague Esmee and I wrote a short primer for @theconversation.com.
doi.org/10.64628/AB....
doi.org/10.64628/AB....
“In the medium term, there could be a very good solution, because thanks to artificial intelligence, we will no longer need interpreters,” Merz said at a press conference where Sánchez reiterated his case to recognise the three languages.
AI as the official EU language would be a new twist
AI as the official EU language would be a new twist
‘We won’t stop’: Spain vows not to give up on Catalan language recognition
‘We won’t stop’: Spain vows not to give up on Catalan language recognition
Germany and others are blocking the move, which Pedro Sánchez sees as crucial for shoring up support for his fragile coalition
dlvr.it
October 22, 2025 at 5:42 AM
“In the medium term, there could be a very good solution, because thanks to artificial intelligence, we will no longer need interpreters,” Merz said at a press conference where Sánchez reiterated his case to recognise the three languages.
AI as the official EU language would be a new twist
AI as the official EU language would be a new twist
I propose that every financial year, the top 3 companies per country qualify for the ECB stock championship the next year.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz: “We need a kind of European stock exchange so that successful companies such as biotech firms from Germany do not have to go to the New York Stock Exchange.”
Indeed! Europe needs 1 currency, 1 capital market & 1 dominant stock exchange!
www.ft.com/content/040f...
Indeed! Europe needs 1 currency, 1 capital market & 1 dominant stock exchange!
www.ft.com/content/040f...
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz calls for single European stock exchange
Endorsement comes after Berlin signals readiness to allow more centralised markets supervision
www.ft.com
October 19, 2025 at 7:16 AM
I propose that every financial year, the top 3 companies per country qualify for the ECB stock championship the next year.