Tyler McClellan
@tylermacro.bsky.social
PM at various macro hedge funds for 20yrs. Always learning, hopefully teaching a bit as well sometimes.
November 19, 2025 at 9:59 PM
The hegemony of the autoguydact
November 19, 2025 at 9:19 PM
The hegemony of the autoguydact
Reposted by Tyler McClellan
Revenues strong. LAO fiscal outlook expected soon. #CABudget open.substack.com/pub/jasonsis...
Finance: General Fund receipts above projection
LAO Fiscal Outlook expected in coming days with first look at 2026-27 deficit or surplus
open.substack.com
November 18, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Revenues strong. LAO fiscal outlook expected soon. #CABudget open.substack.com/pub/jasonsis...
Hmm
This quarter’s jobs numbers might end up looking weak (whenever they're published?!). But with sharp immigration shocks, tariffs flipping on and off and a long data blackout from the shutdown, it’s hard to know how much is real vs noise. Confusing times.
November 18, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Hmm
September 11 had a much bigger macroeconomic impact than is commonly remembered today
Arguably bigger than the dotcom bust
Arguably bigger than the dotcom bust
A question, when did people realise that the dot com bubble had actually peaked?
Just looking at the old NASDAQ chart.
I can - and suppose will - look back through old FT and Economist stories.
But there must be some people on this site who remember it?
Just looking at the old NASDAQ chart.
I can - and suppose will - look back through old FT and Economist stories.
But there must be some people on this site who remember it?
November 18, 2025 at 1:51 PM
September 11 had a much bigger macroeconomic impact than is commonly remembered today
Arguably bigger than the dotcom bust
Arguably bigger than the dotcom bust
This is going to happen…but in the reverse
No more public schools
No more public schools
My wokest opinion is that there shouldn’t be any private high schools or elementary schools.
Education is a matter of the common public good and everyone at the K-12 level should have an equal opportunity with the same resources to attain a common educational baseline.
Education is a matter of the common public good and everyone at the K-12 level should have an equal opportunity with the same resources to attain a common educational baseline.
"my least woke opinion is---"
That's enough. We've had enough people indulging in the "thrill of a little conservatism", as a treat. Of considering reactionary thought to be a salacious and taboo in a world descending into reactionary mania.
Give me your MOST woke opinions. We're bringing it back.
That's enough. We've had enough people indulging in the "thrill of a little conservatism", as a treat. Of considering reactionary thought to be a salacious and taboo in a world descending into reactionary mania.
Give me your MOST woke opinions. We're bringing it back.
November 14, 2025 at 1:36 PM
This is going to happen…but in the reverse
No more public schools
No more public schools
Yes there is
January 10, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Yes there is
So everyone’s ok with the hawkishness over here?
:)
:)
December 18, 2024 at 8:42 PM
So everyone’s ok with the hawkishness over here?
:)
:)
Difference is we can’t explain what these companies do
Also Tesla has risen enough to be in now
Also Tesla has risen enough to be in now
Pretty remarkable table from gavekal. Not unprecedented, but it’s close
December 17, 2024 at 10:35 AM
Difference is we can’t explain what these companies do
Also Tesla has risen enough to be in now
Also Tesla has risen enough to be in now
The bubble is in the real economy
US stock market rally breadth .. continues to stay narrow
From our show today, great chart
From our show today, great chart
December 17, 2024 at 8:42 AM
The bubble is in the real economy
Reposted by Tyler McClellan
Why describing Germany as “the sick man of Europe” is wrong — in two charts: employment (rate) has never been higher, it is one of the highest in Europe and has increased more quickly than most over the past 15 years.
www.ft.com/content/9ae3...
www.ft.com/content/9ae3...
December 16, 2024 at 7:57 AM
Why describing Germany as “the sick man of Europe” is wrong — in two charts: employment (rate) has never been higher, it is one of the highest in Europe and has increased more quickly than most over the past 15 years.
www.ft.com/content/9ae3...
www.ft.com/content/9ae3...
Reposted by Tyler McClellan
How big are the Chinese banks now? A 1 trillion RMB capital infection -- the largest since the post 1998 recaps -- is only 0.5% of assets
What's bizarre about the banks is that they insist on paying 30% of Net Income as dividends to minority shareholders despite being capital constrained
What's bizarre about the banks is that they insist on paying 30% of Net Income as dividends to minority shareholders despite being capital constrained
December 15, 2024 at 3:51 AM
How big are the Chinese banks now? A 1 trillion RMB capital infection -- the largest since the post 1998 recaps -- is only 0.5% of assets
What's bizarre about the banks is that they insist on paying 30% of Net Income as dividends to minority shareholders despite being capital constrained
What's bizarre about the banks is that they insist on paying 30% of Net Income as dividends to minority shareholders despite being capital constrained
Reposted by Tyler McClellan
Chinese yield curve is a sight to behold when you realize all their biggest companies are banks
December 10, 2024 at 8:24 AM
Chinese yield curve is a sight to behold when you realize all their biggest companies are banks
Reposted by Tyler McClellan
You're not going to believe this but small businesses think everything is rosy now when they didn't last month.
December 10, 2024 at 11:02 AM
You're not going to believe this but small businesses think everything is rosy now when they didn't last month.
Chinese yield curve is a sight to behold when you realize all their biggest companies are banks
December 10, 2024 at 8:24 AM
Chinese yield curve is a sight to behold when you realize all their biggest companies are banks
Is ETS2 just entirely an add-on to existing carbon taxes in those areas of the economy?
Or is there supposed to be some true-up whereby direct double taxation is eliminated?
Or is there supposed to be some true-up whereby direct double taxation is eliminated?
December 9, 2024 at 10:32 AM
Is ETS2 just entirely an add-on to existing carbon taxes in those areas of the economy?
Or is there supposed to be some true-up whereby direct double taxation is eliminated?
Or is there supposed to be some true-up whereby direct double taxation is eliminated?
There’s something odd in the change in monetary policy stance coming so late when by conventional measures the monetary policy stance has already been loosened dramatically
Puzzling
Puzzling
December 9, 2024 at 10:09 AM
There’s something odd in the change in monetary policy stance coming so late when by conventional measures the monetary policy stance has already been loosened dramatically
Puzzling
Puzzling
Reposted by Tyler McClellan
#ttf
I believe in the new LNG era, the entire northern hemisphere is an integrated system
Since I do not believe it’s possible to have a cold winter across the whole hemisphere any longer; I do not believe we can ever run low on storage
Doesn’t mean we can’t have temporary price spikes though
I believe in the new LNG era, the entire northern hemisphere is an integrated system
Since I do not believe it’s possible to have a cold winter across the whole hemisphere any longer; I do not believe we can ever run low on storage
Doesn’t mean we can’t have temporary price spikes though
November 27, 2024 at 8:22 AM
#ttf
I believe in the new LNG era, the entire northern hemisphere is an integrated system
Since I do not believe it’s possible to have a cold winter across the whole hemisphere any longer; I do not believe we can ever run low on storage
Doesn’t mean we can’t have temporary price spikes though
I believe in the new LNG era, the entire northern hemisphere is an integrated system
Since I do not believe it’s possible to have a cold winter across the whole hemisphere any longer; I do not believe we can ever run low on storage
Doesn’t mean we can’t have temporary price spikes though
You can’t run a retirement fund (the U.S. government) on 17% of GDP in revenue
December 5, 2024 at 10:10 AM
You can’t run a retirement fund (the U.S. government) on 17% of GDP in revenue
Late night mise en place ( a la americane)
November 27, 2024 at 8:00 PM
Late night mise en place ( a la americane)
It’s like thanksgiving, but in France
November 27, 2024 at 7:44 PM
It’s like thanksgiving, but in France
November 27, 2024 at 1:38 PM