No Sunk Costs
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GS has a long-term equity return forecast of that is at the higher end of historical ranges for all almost all markets despite trailing total returns being well above average and all markets trading at a premium to their historical ranges
November 15, 2025 at 4:42 AM
GS has a long-term equity return forecast of that is at the higher end of historical ranges for all almost all markets despite trailing total returns being well above average and all markets trading at a premium to their historical ranges
India vs Europe $ EPS growth over the last decade
November 13, 2025 at 3:38 AM
India vs Europe $ EPS growth over the last decade
He’s good at math in pre-K* which means he knows 3 comes after 2
New VC flex: I’m raising a horrible, spoiled brat but it’s OK because they’re good at math.
November 12, 2025 at 11:16 PM
He’s good at math in pre-K* which means he knows 3 comes after 2
Fascinating to see Adyen go from a company that eschewed guidance and analyst engagement to a company that talks to the street constantly and provides multi-year top-line and margin guides
November 11, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Fascinating to see Adyen go from a company that eschewed guidance and analyst engagement to a company that talks to the street constantly and provides multi-year top-line and margin guides
Lotta choice quotes in this piece, hoping nobody gets bonesawed for going being an anonymous contributor
November 9, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Lotta choice quotes in this piece, hoping nobody gets bonesawed for going being an anonymous contributor
The multiple has been flat, the earnings have been terrible -- Staples EPS growth has been less than half of inflation
$XLP $SPY
$XLP $SPY
November 6, 2025 at 5:54 AM
The multiple has been flat, the earnings have been terrible -- Staples EPS growth has been less than half of inflation
$XLP $SPY
$XLP $SPY
Biggest losers from China's rise in manufacturing exports? Germany and Italy (the Northern part that is basically Switzerland+germany)
Could we have known? Yes, it was obvious for years
Could we have known? Yes, it was obvious for years
November 6, 2025 at 5:39 AM
Biggest losers from China's rise in manufacturing exports? Germany and Italy (the Northern part that is basically Switzerland+germany)
Could we have known? Yes, it was obvious for years
Could we have known? Yes, it was obvious for years
Reposted by No Sunk Costs
Baseline working age population growth in the U.S. is ~0.3%
Zero migration would make that negative
Taiwan and Korea... woof
Zero migration would make that negative
Taiwan and Korea... woof
November 5, 2025 at 5:51 AM
Baseline working age population growth in the U.S. is ~0.3%
Zero migration would make that negative
Taiwan and Korea... woof
Zero migration would make that negative
Taiwan and Korea... woof
GS 2035 FX Forecasts
Spicy for JPY and CNH
Spicy for JPY and CNH
November 4, 2025 at 7:44 AM
GS 2035 FX Forecasts
Spicy for JPY and CNH
Spicy for JPY and CNH
I think this true: we exist today in a state of significant material contentment. The opportunity cost of time is incredibly high because life is so much more enjoyable than the past and random death is much less likely
It explains the move towards rampant careerism -- when we lose, we lose big
It explains the move towards rampant careerism -- when we lose, we lose big
November 2, 2025 at 5:51 AM
I think this true: we exist today in a state of significant material contentment. The opportunity cost of time is incredibly high because life is so much more enjoyable than the past and random death is much less likely
It explains the move towards rampant careerism -- when we lose, we lose big
It explains the move towards rampant careerism -- when we lose, we lose big
I think this is obviously true -- creation has moved to digital formats that are not yet considered art by the traditional commentariat
November 2, 2025 at 5:48 AM
I think this is obviously true -- creation has moved to digital formats that are not yet considered art by the traditional commentariat
We used to have colourful cars
November 2, 2025 at 5:21 AM
We used to have colourful cars
The movie business changed dramatically starting in the late 1990s
November 2, 2025 at 5:20 AM
The movie business changed dramatically starting in the late 1990s
Vaping on the decline amongst young people feels like a narrative violation
November 2, 2025 at 3:33 AM
Vaping on the decline amongst young people feels like a narrative violation
JPM on China's tax system and how it encourages overcapacity
November 2, 2025 at 2:24 AM
JPM on China's tax system and how it encourages overcapacity
This actually quite succinctly captures the fundamental tension at the heart of American society today
I've built a socioeconomic system that depends on everyone to do useful work and act ethically except the people at the top, who get unimaginable rewards for being antisocial frauds and criminals. And I think it will stand the test of time
October 29, 2025 at 11:39 AM
This actually quite succinctly captures the fundamental tension at the heart of American society today
'A House of Dynamite' is 1/3rd of a good film -- you can just stop watching after Rebecca Ferguson leaves the screen
Also, content like this is wildly anachronistic in today's world. Just impossible to take seriously 'competence porn' involving the USG
Also, content like this is wildly anachronistic in today's world. Just impossible to take seriously 'competence porn' involving the USG
October 28, 2025 at 4:07 AM
'A House of Dynamite' is 1/3rd of a good film -- you can just stop watching after Rebecca Ferguson leaves the screen
Also, content like this is wildly anachronistic in today's world. Just impossible to take seriously 'competence porn' involving the USG
Also, content like this is wildly anachronistic in today's world. Just impossible to take seriously 'competence porn' involving the USG
Nice piece from Verdad on this paper that once again confirms: private markets are a socially acceptable grift
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
October 28, 2025 at 3:59 AM
Nice piece from Verdad on this paper that once again confirms: private markets are a socially acceptable grift
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
October 27, 2025 at 2:37 AM
Disney+ in freefall
October 26, 2025 at 10:00 AM
Disney+ in freefall
You are also likely to be incompetent
October 24, 2025 at 4:10 AM
You are also likely to be incompetent
A lot of people are recommending this article and tbh I don't know if it's because the salaciousness of the described content/lifestyle is semi-scandalous or there is a perception of some sort of valuable signal about society in the text?
harpers.org/archive/2025...
harpers.org/archive/2025...
The Goon Squad, by Daniel Kolitz
Loneliness, porn’s next frontier, and the dream of endless masturbation
harpers.org
October 24, 2025 at 3:30 AM
A lot of people are recommending this article and tbh I don't know if it's because the salaciousness of the described content/lifestyle is semi-scandalous or there is a perception of some sort of valuable signal about society in the text?
harpers.org/archive/2025...
harpers.org/archive/2025...
I am usually a reliable audience for analysis about esoteric macroeconomic imbalances, but I have to confess I find everything about Argentina completely uninteresting -- the constant failings make for exciting reporting, but it's useless for knowledge-building since its always an exception
October 22, 2025 at 2:53 PM
I am usually a reliable audience for analysis about esoteric macroeconomic imbalances, but I have to confess I find everything about Argentina completely uninteresting -- the constant failings make for exciting reporting, but it's useless for knowledge-building since its always an exception
The last 10 years for the median stock has been... less than ideal
October 19, 2025 at 2:08 PM
The last 10 years for the median stock has been... less than ideal