No Sunk Costs
@nosunkcosts.bsky.social
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GS' Asia ex-Japan total return forecast in USD is ~13%
They expecting some pretty heavy currency appreciation for both China and Japan
They expecting some pretty heavy currency appreciation for both China and Japan
November 15, 2025 at 4:44 AM
GS' Asia ex-Japan total return forecast in USD is ~13%
They expecting some pretty heavy currency appreciation for both China and Japan
They expecting some pretty heavy currency appreciation for both China and Japan
Didn't realize that ex-US payout ratios are now well above the US
November 15, 2025 at 4:42 AM
Didn't realize that ex-US payout ratios are now well above the US
India was 20*, this is 10*
60bps differential in EPS growth, 200bps differential in total return driven entirely by relative multiple expansion
60bps differential in EPS growth, 200bps differential in total return driven entirely by relative multiple expansion
November 13, 2025 at 3:53 AM
India was 20*, this is 10*
60bps differential in EPS growth, 200bps differential in total return driven entirely by relative multiple expansion
60bps differential in EPS growth, 200bps differential in total return driven entirely by relative multiple expansion
Speaking of Emerging Market features
November 13, 2025 at 3:50 AM
Speaking of Emerging Market features
November 9, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Vaguely fascinating to watch Marjorie Taylor Greene pivot on a dime from red meat MAGA to… well, whatever this new thing is. Just woke up one day and decided to change character.
Though her positions have shifted toward sanity, the sheer speed of it is quite unsettling. Talented Mr Ripley vibes.
Though her positions have shifted toward sanity, the sheer speed of it is quite unsettling. Talented Mr Ripley vibes.
November 7, 2025 at 7:13 AM
Massive abdication of responsibility by the German political and corporate establishment -- didn't take a genius to know this was coming
November 6, 2025 at 5:41 AM
Massive abdication of responsibility by the German political and corporate establishment -- didn't take a genius to know this was coming
China is one of the biggest winners from a Trump Presidency, a continuing series
And now @pkrugman.bsky.social agrees
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
And now @pkrugman.bsky.social agrees
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
November 5, 2025 at 5:36 AM
China is one of the biggest winners from a Trump Presidency, a continuing series
And now @pkrugman.bsky.social agrees
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
And now @pkrugman.bsky.social agrees
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
Implication is that the base level of material deprivation -- perhaps via unemployment or living standards' stagnation -- needs to reach a much greater level than the past to spur discontent
November 2, 2025 at 5:57 AM
Implication is that the base level of material deprivation -- perhaps via unemployment or living standards' stagnation -- needs to reach a much greater level than the past to spur discontent
It has likely reduced the proclivity of people to participate in coordinated political action to preserve freedoms -- we are too comfortable to face the prospect of temporary imprisonment (even if unfair) and career regression
Good for authoritarians
Good for authoritarians
November 2, 2025 at 5:56 AM
It has likely reduced the proclivity of people to participate in coordinated political action to preserve freedoms -- we are too comfortable to face the prospect of temporary imprisonment (even if unfair) and career regression
Good for authoritarians
Good for authoritarians
The marginal life risk feels bigger and hence the inertia is greater because it, in fact, *is* bigger vs. the baseline risks we lived of the past -- anything that can result in being taken out of the bliss that is life in the Western world (death, imprisonment, disease) is perceived as mortifying
November 2, 2025 at 5:54 AM
The marginal life risk feels bigger and hence the inertia is greater because it, in fact, *is* bigger vs. the baseline risks we lived of the past -- anything that can result in being taken out of the bliss that is life in the Western world (death, imprisonment, disease) is perceived as mortifying