No Sunk Costs
@nosunkcosts.bsky.social
Archive - https://x.com/nosunkcosts
Wonder what Saudi would look like during a prolonged period of $40 oil prices
November 23, 2025 at 1:18 AM
Wonder what Saudi would look like during a prolonged period of $40 oil prices
Average Japanese seller is tiny vs other developed markets
November 22, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Average Japanese seller is tiny vs other developed markets
Amazon seller longevity is highest in Japan
50% of Amazon sellers are from China
50% of Amazon sellers are from China
November 22, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Amazon seller longevity is highest in Japan
50% of Amazon sellers are from China
50% of Amazon sellers are from China
Success in Chinese food delivery is losing 25 cents an order
November 22, 2025 at 6:00 AM
Success in Chinese food delivery is losing 25 cents an order
Non-cash gains on private company stakes accounted for 7% of SPX earnings last quarter
November 22, 2025 at 5:44 AM
Non-cash gains on private company stakes accounted for 7% of SPX earnings last quarter
To be fair, Capex forecasts have been wildly behind actuals for some time now so everyone is only looking at upside cases vs downside cases
November 22, 2025 at 5:40 AM
To be fair, Capex forecasts have been wildly behind actuals for some time now so everyone is only looking at upside cases vs downside cases
I love that we are no doing Capex forecasts based on macroeconomic variables and a call to historical buildout bubbles
The market is operating in a meta-mode
To be fair, the numbers are so mindbogglingly large, that there only conceptual frameworks apply anymore
The market is operating in a meta-mode
To be fair, the numbers are so mindbogglingly large, that there only conceptual frameworks apply anymore
November 22, 2025 at 5:37 AM
I love that we are no doing Capex forecasts based on macroeconomic variables and a call to historical buildout bubbles
The market is operating in a meta-mode
To be fair, the numbers are so mindbogglingly large, that there only conceptual frameworks apply anymore
The market is operating in a meta-mode
To be fair, the numbers are so mindbogglingly large, that there only conceptual frameworks apply anymore
GS making the case that hyperscalers have gone from net cash to (barely) net debt and their leverage capacity is tremendous based on just current cashflows
November 22, 2025 at 5:32 AM
GS making the case that hyperscalers have gone from net cash to (barely) net debt and their leverage capacity is tremendous based on just current cashflows
Bleak statistics on agricultural producitivty in Africa, the causes thereof and the difficulty of change
November 22, 2025 at 5:10 AM
Bleak statistics on agricultural producitivty in Africa, the causes thereof and the difficulty of change
The OpenAI (also Anthropic sort of) dilemma for largecap tech
November 22, 2025 at 4:24 AM
The OpenAI (also Anthropic sort of) dilemma for largecap tech
For happiness, health > job > relationship > friends >>> children
apparently
apparently
November 21, 2025 at 8:41 AM
For happiness, health > job > relationship > friends >>> children
apparently
apparently
Apparently underperforming by 200bps/year is considered success in Smart Beta land
Can't wait for dumb beta
Can't wait for dumb beta
November 19, 2025 at 3:03 AM
Apparently underperforming by 200bps/year is considered success in Smart Beta land
Can't wait for dumb beta
Can't wait for dumb beta
GS' Asia ex-Japan total return forecast in USD is ~13%
They expecting some pretty heavy currency appreciation for both China and Japan
They expecting some pretty heavy currency appreciation for both China and Japan
November 15, 2025 at 4:44 AM
GS' Asia ex-Japan total return forecast in USD is ~13%
They expecting some pretty heavy currency appreciation for both China and Japan
They expecting some pretty heavy currency appreciation for both China and Japan
Didn't realize that ex-US payout ratios are now well above the US
November 15, 2025 at 4:42 AM
Didn't realize that ex-US payout ratios are now well above the US
GS has a long-term equity return forecast of that is at the higher end of historical ranges for all almost all markets despite trailing total returns being well above average and all markets trading at a premium to their historical ranges
November 15, 2025 at 4:42 AM
GS has a long-term equity return forecast of that is at the higher end of historical ranges for all almost all markets despite trailing total returns being well above average and all markets trading at a premium to their historical ranges
India was 20*, this is 10*
60bps differential in EPS growth, 200bps differential in total return driven entirely by relative multiple expansion
60bps differential in EPS growth, 200bps differential in total return driven entirely by relative multiple expansion
November 13, 2025 at 3:53 AM
India was 20*, this is 10*
60bps differential in EPS growth, 200bps differential in total return driven entirely by relative multiple expansion
60bps differential in EPS growth, 200bps differential in total return driven entirely by relative multiple expansion
Speaking of Emerging Market features
November 13, 2025 at 3:50 AM
Speaking of Emerging Market features
India vs Europe $ EPS growth over the last decade
November 13, 2025 at 3:38 AM
India vs Europe $ EPS growth over the last decade
November 9, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Lotta choice quotes in this piece, hoping nobody gets bonesawed for going being an anonymous contributor
November 9, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Lotta choice quotes in this piece, hoping nobody gets bonesawed for going being an anonymous contributor
The multiple has been flat, the earnings have been terrible -- Staples EPS growth has been less than half of inflation
$XLP $SPY
$XLP $SPY
November 6, 2025 at 5:54 AM
The multiple has been flat, the earnings have been terrible -- Staples EPS growth has been less than half of inflation
$XLP $SPY
$XLP $SPY
Massive abdication of responsibility by the German political and corporate establishment -- didn't take a genius to know this was coming
November 6, 2025 at 5:41 AM
Massive abdication of responsibility by the German political and corporate establishment -- didn't take a genius to know this was coming
Biggest losers from China's rise in manufacturing exports? Germany and Italy (the Northern part that is basically Switzerland+germany)
Could we have known? Yes, it was obvious for years
Could we have known? Yes, it was obvious for years
November 6, 2025 at 5:39 AM
Biggest losers from China's rise in manufacturing exports? Germany and Italy (the Northern part that is basically Switzerland+germany)
Could we have known? Yes, it was obvious for years
Could we have known? Yes, it was obvious for years
Baseline working age population growth in the U.S. is ~0.3%
Zero migration would make that negative
Taiwan and Korea... woof
Zero migration would make that negative
Taiwan and Korea... woof
November 5, 2025 at 5:51 AM
Baseline working age population growth in the U.S. is ~0.3%
Zero migration would make that negative
Taiwan and Korea... woof
Zero migration would make that negative
Taiwan and Korea... woof