Scott R
@sruffner.bsky.social
Reposted by Scott R
I'm hearing "political violence has no place in America" from people who were more than OK with what happened on Jan 6, 2021.
September 10, 2025 at 9:15 PM
I'm hearing "political violence has no place in America" from people who were more than OK with what happened on Jan 6, 2021.
Reposted by Scott R
Jamie Dimon warns US bond market will ‘crack’ under pressure from rising debt
on.ft.com/4mKOV4G
on.ft.com/4mKOV4G
Jamie Dimon warns US bond market will ‘crack’ under pressure from rising debt
JPMorgan Chase chief calls on Trump administration to set country on better fiscal path
on.ft.com
June 1, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Jamie Dimon warns US bond market will ‘crack’ under pressure from rising debt
on.ft.com/4mKOV4G
on.ft.com/4mKOV4G
Reposted by Scott R
Scoop: Texas police used Flock's license plate cameras to search *nationwide* for a woman who had a self-managed abortion. Claim it was "about her safety"
www.404media.co/a-texas-cop-...
www.404media.co/a-texas-cop-...
A Texas Cop Searched License Plate Cameras Nationwide for a Woman Who Got an Abortion
The sheriff said the woman self-administered the abortion and her family were concerned for her safety, so authorities searched through Flock cameras. Experts are still concerned that a cop in a state...
www.404media.co
May 29, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Scoop: Texas police used Flock's license plate cameras to search *nationwide* for a woman who had a self-managed abortion. Claim it was "about her safety"
www.404media.co/a-texas-cop-...
www.404media.co/a-texas-cop-...
Reposted by Scott R
Q1 GDP Growth Revised up to -0.2% Annual Rate www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/q1-g...
PCE growth was revised down from 1.8% to 1.2%. Residential investment was revised down from 1.3% to -0.6%.
PCE growth was revised down from 1.8% to 1.2%. Residential investment was revised down from 1.3% to -0.6%.
May 29, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Q1 GDP Growth Revised up to -0.2% Annual Rate www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/q1-g...
PCE growth was revised down from 1.8% to 1.2%. Residential investment was revised down from 1.3% to -0.6%.
PCE growth was revised down from 1.8% to 1.2%. Residential investment was revised down from 1.3% to -0.6%.
Reposted by Scott R
Further to my post on Moody's downgrade of the US:
Yields on US government bonds are up across the board (Bloomberg table below)--not dramatic but, especially with the 30-year yield above 5%, enough to amplify the conversation about America's political ability to address its fiscal deficit and debt
Yields on US government bonds are up across the board (Bloomberg table below)--not dramatic but, especially with the 30-year yield above 5%, enough to amplify the conversation about America's political ability to address its fiscal deficit and debt
May 19, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Further to my post on Moody's downgrade of the US:
Yields on US government bonds are up across the board (Bloomberg table below)--not dramatic but, especially with the 30-year yield above 5%, enough to amplify the conversation about America's political ability to address its fiscal deficit and debt
Yields on US government bonds are up across the board (Bloomberg table below)--not dramatic but, especially with the 30-year yield above 5%, enough to amplify the conversation about America's political ability to address its fiscal deficit and debt
Reposted by Scott R
FED WATCH re: Moody’s:
“.. the vulnerabilities of regional banks to Treasuries, exposed in the 2023 SVB crisis, have not dissipated.
“.. For example, the difference between yields and swap rates, which are unsecured borrowing rates set by financial institutions, has widened to 50 basis points ..”
“.. the vulnerabilities of regional banks to Treasuries, exposed in the 2023 SVB crisis, have not dissipated.
“.. For example, the difference between yields and swap rates, which are unsecured borrowing rates set by financial institutions, has widened to 50 basis points ..”
May 19, 2025 at 12:18 PM
FED WATCH re: Moody’s:
“.. the vulnerabilities of regional banks to Treasuries, exposed in the 2023 SVB crisis, have not dissipated.
“.. For example, the difference between yields and swap rates, which are unsecured borrowing rates set by financial institutions, has widened to 50 basis points ..”
“.. the vulnerabilities of regional banks to Treasuries, exposed in the 2023 SVB crisis, have not dissipated.
“.. For example, the difference between yields and swap rates, which are unsecured borrowing rates set by financial institutions, has widened to 50 basis points ..”
Reposted by Scott R
Housing May 19th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.5% Week-over-week, Up 32.7% Year-over-year www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/hous...
Housing May 19th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.5% Week-over-week, Up 32.7% Year-over-year
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.5% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 22.9% from the seasonal bottom in January ...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
May 19, 2025 at 12:44 PM
Housing May 19th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.5% Week-over-week, Up 32.7% Year-over-year www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/hous...
So, it turns out all my hard-money "conservative" (ie, cut "liberal" policies) acquaintances were right in so far as yes, the Bond Vigilantes DO still exist. Hoocoodanode?
30y yields up about 12 bps since this headline hit (between the last few mins of Friday's session in NY and trading in Tokyo/London overnight). NY trading now starting with 30y yields also 10 bps steeper as 2y yields only rose a couple bps since. 30y yields highest since 2023, but not that steep.
May 19, 2025 at 2:00 PM
So, it turns out all my hard-money "conservative" (ie, cut "liberal" policies) acquaintances were right in so far as yes, the Bond Vigilantes DO still exist. Hoocoodanode?
Party of "Fiscal Responsibility'...
WSJ: “.. Nearly $1 in every $7 the U.S. spends goes toward paying interest, more than the country spends on defense.”
@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
May 19, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Party of "Fiscal Responsibility'...
Aaaand...this is why those starts are surprising!
Trend in prospective buyers traffic not showing any signs of improvement per NAHB Home Housing Market Index ... component fell to 23 in May, marking a new low for 2025 #EconSky
May 16, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Aaaand...this is why those starts are surprising!
Reposted by Scott R
Trend in prospective buyers traffic not showing any signs of improvement per NAHB Home Housing Market Index ... component fell to 23 in May, marking a new low for 2025 #EconSky
May 16, 2025 at 11:34 AM
Trend in prospective buyers traffic not showing any signs of improvement per NAHB Home Housing Market Index ... component fell to 23 in May, marking a new low for 2025 #EconSky
Surprisingly good indicator (given labor and interest rate concerns)
Housing Starts Increased to 1.361 million Annual Rate in April www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/05/hous...
Housing Starts Increased to 1.361 million Annual Rate in April
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adju...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
May 16, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Surprisingly good indicator (given labor and interest rate concerns)
Reposted by Scott R
I just really need everybody to understand that everything that’s happening in and to the global economy now (and all the businesses and people in it) is the entirely predictable result of the intentional decisions of one guy who doesn’t understand how the global economy works.
May 10, 2025 at 2:53 PM
I just really need everybody to understand that everything that’s happening in and to the global economy now (and all the businesses and people in it) is the entirely predictable result of the intentional decisions of one guy who doesn’t understand how the global economy works.
Reposted by Scott R
Now that the president has rightly made English the national language, Americans who use Latin terms such as stare decisis and habeas corpus should be subject to unprecedented forms of incarceration.
By Jonathan Turley
By Jonathan Turley
May 11, 2025 at 1:49 AM
Now that the president has rightly made English the national language, Americans who use Latin terms such as stare decisis and habeas corpus should be subject to unprecedented forms of incarceration.
By Jonathan Turley
By Jonathan Turley
Reposted by Scott R
I think a lot about what Carl Sagan said in one of his final interviews.
May 4, 2025 at 6:21 AM
I think a lot about what Carl Sagan said in one of his final interviews.
Reposted by Scott R
Reminds me a lot of @drmoore.bsky.social discovering (finally facing and admitting) the truth about the movement they provided a intellectual and spiritual fig-leaves for. The feeling of bitter betrayal is palpable. Props to both for the honesty to admit it though.
Today on the pod: David Brooks. Listen/watch/subscribe: link.chtbl.com/ProfGPod?sid...
May 2, 2025 at 2:14 PM
Reminds me a lot of @drmoore.bsky.social discovering (finally facing and admitting) the truth about the movement they provided a intellectual and spiritual fig-leaves for. The feeling of bitter betrayal is palpable. Props to both for the honesty to admit it though.
This is an actual hard leading indicator, not just feels
McDonalds saying consumers are cutting back on breakfast is not an encouraging signal — because that daypart has historically been seen as a proxy for employment.
$MCD
$MCD
May 2, 2025 at 1:53 PM
This is an actual hard leading indicator, not just feels
Reposted by Scott R
Evangelicals are raised in a religion that demands they acquiesce to an authoritarian.
Whether it’s their father, their pastor, or their president — they are indoctrinated to submit.
Whether it’s their father, their pastor, or their president — they are indoctrinated to submit.
May 2, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Evangelicals are raised in a religion that demands they acquiesce to an authoritarian.
Whether it’s their father, their pastor, or their president — they are indoctrinated to submit.
Whether it’s their father, their pastor, or their president — they are indoctrinated to submit.
Reposted by Scott R
What the U.S. government is doing in relation to public health is so irrational and harmful that it’s almost impossible to process it.
They are lying about how vaccines are tested. They are lying about vaccines containing “aborted fetus debris”.
This is public health malpractice.
They are lying about how vaccines are tested. They are lying about vaccines containing “aborted fetus debris”.
This is public health malpractice.
May 1, 2025 at 10:25 PM
What the U.S. government is doing in relation to public health is so irrational and harmful that it’s almost impossible to process it.
They are lying about how vaccines are tested. They are lying about vaccines containing “aborted fetus debris”.
This is public health malpractice.
They are lying about how vaccines are tested. They are lying about vaccines containing “aborted fetus debris”.
This is public health malpractice.
Reposted by Scott R
A federal judge frees a student protester — and places Trump's new "Red Scare" among its predecessors.
“The wheel of history has come around again, but as before these times of excess will pass.”
Dive deeper into his ruling www.allrisenews.com/p/mohsen-mah...
“The wheel of history has come around again, but as before these times of excess will pass.”
Dive deeper into his ruling www.allrisenews.com/p/mohsen-mah...
Tonight in Your Rights: Judge compares Trump's student detentions to Red Scare
Freed Columbia University student tells Trump: "I am not afraid of you." Trump officials to take the hot seat on Kilmar Abrego Garcia, and more
www.allrisenews.com
May 1, 2025 at 2:19 PM
A federal judge frees a student protester — and places Trump's new "Red Scare" among its predecessors.
“The wheel of history has come around again, but as before these times of excess will pass.”
Dive deeper into his ruling www.allrisenews.com/p/mohsen-mah...
“The wheel of history has come around again, but as before these times of excess will pass.”
Dive deeper into his ruling www.allrisenews.com/p/mohsen-mah...
I have long believed the object of the Tariffs was to set up the special bribe window at commerce.
US CHAMBER ASKS WHITE HOUSE FOR SMALL BUSINESS TARIFF EXEMPTION - CNBC
Gonna be a #HotExemptionSummer
Gonna be a #HotExemptionSummer
May 1, 2025 at 4:22 PM
I have long believed the object of the Tariffs was to set up the special bribe window at commerce.
Reposted by Scott R
Here’s my economic outlook for Q2 (April on the left, June on the right):
May 1, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Here’s my economic outlook for Q2 (April on the left, June on the right):
Ok, on the nose, I snorted
Americans need to lose weight. Trump's nationwide food shortage could help with that.
by Leana Wen
by Leana Wen
May 1, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Ok, on the nose, I snorted
Reposted by Scott R
Kids don't need toys if they have to work all day.
April 30, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Kids don't need toys if they have to work all day.