Sam Levey
@slevey.bsky.social
Assistant Professor of Economics at Illinois College. Modern Monetary Theory and other heterodox approaches.
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Sam Levey
@slevey.bsky.social
· Mar 23
Orthogonal Projection Formulas (Least Squares) - Projection, Part 2
YouTube video by Sam Levey
youtu.be
Hey, I have a new video out! It’s about where the formulas for Least Squares come from, in terms of orthogonal projection. It’s the second in a series about projection (but you don’t need to have watched the first :)
youtu.be/73xKLFsXvvM
youtu.be/73xKLFsXvvM
Americans relearning in real time that uncertainty is a necessary sibling of discretionary authority.
The administration is building a legal pathway for ad hoc grant terminations:
"if the agency determines that the award no longer effectuates the program goals or agency priorities"
Converting multiyear grants to 'at whim' coin flips will undermine the stability & leadership of American science.
"if the agency determines that the award no longer effectuates the program goals or agency priorities"
Converting multiyear grants to 'at whim' coin flips will undermine the stability & leadership of American science.
Update on a significant development NIH grant terms.
On 10/1, a change to grant making regs went into effect that gives NIH more power to terminate grants for policy reasons.
But to use this power, new grant terms must include specific language. See @aniloza.bsky.social w/ the story from July.
1/
On 10/1, a change to grant making regs went into effect that gives NIH more power to terminate grants for policy reasons.
But to use this power, new grant terms must include specific language. See @aniloza.bsky.social w/ the story from July.
1/
November 20, 2025 at 6:26 PM
Americans relearning in real time that uncertainty is a necessary sibling of discretionary authority.
Reposted by Sam Levey
In my Foundations of HCI class, we’re in the midst of our social computing section, thinking about how to address online toxicities. Had the students play Masnick’s “Trust & Safety Tycoon” game in class yesterday. Their reactions: moderation is HARD... www.techdirt.com/2023/10/17/t...
November 19, 2025 at 6:53 PM
In my Foundations of HCI class, we’re in the midst of our social computing section, thinking about how to address online toxicities. Had the students play Masnick’s “Trust & Safety Tycoon” game in class yesterday. Their reactions: moderation is HARD... www.techdirt.com/2023/10/17/t...
Reposted by Sam Levey
Reposted by Sam Levey
people's political affiliations are frequently not an expression of underlying ideology but an attempt to define their own identity and a reflection of their perceived (and desired) role in the social ecosystem, which in turn means they're a direct reflection of how they perceive that ecosystem
October 29, 2025 at 4:03 PM
people's political affiliations are frequently not an expression of underlying ideology but an attempt to define their own identity and a reflection of their perceived (and desired) role in the social ecosystem, which in turn means they're a direct reflection of how they perceive that ecosystem
Reposted by Sam Levey
HOW VOTERS PICK A CANDIDATE:
-they observe the social environment (largely through media)
-they decide what role they want to play in that environment (respected? savvy? oppositional?)
-they pick the candidate they think fulfills that role
-they reverse-engineer an explanation for their pick
-they observe the social environment (largely through media)
-they decide what role they want to play in that environment (respected? savvy? oppositional?)
-they pick the candidate they think fulfills that role
-they reverse-engineer an explanation for their pick
October 29, 2025 at 3:56 PM
HOW VOTERS PICK A CANDIDATE:
-they observe the social environment (largely through media)
-they decide what role they want to play in that environment (respected? savvy? oppositional?)
-they pick the candidate they think fulfills that role
-they reverse-engineer an explanation for their pick
-they observe the social environment (largely through media)
-they decide what role they want to play in that environment (respected? savvy? oppositional?)
-they pick the candidate they think fulfills that role
-they reverse-engineer an explanation for their pick
Reposted by Sam Levey
"normies do not care about this thing and so it is no use raising a stink" is imho just an excuse for not doing politics, which is the job of making normies care about something
October 24, 2025 at 2:47 AM
"normies do not care about this thing and so it is no use raising a stink" is imho just an excuse for not doing politics, which is the job of making normies care about something
Reposted by Sam Levey
The destruction of the East Wing is a reminder that America has violated the only check-and-balance that actually ends up mattering: www.doomsdayscenario.co/p/the-only-c...
The only check-and-balance that actually matters
www.doomsdayscenario.co
October 22, 2025 at 2:51 PM
The destruction of the East Wing is a reminder that America has violated the only check-and-balance that actually ends up mattering: www.doomsdayscenario.co/p/the-only-c...
Reposted by Sam Levey
All of us are individually powerless. We can only form an effective opposition collectively. And when things need to happen on the scale we need them to happen, you’re simply not going to agree with every tactic every group deploys, never mind have a veto on them.
fundamentally what the people on this site who are mad about No Kings are afraid of is that it will work and things will get better without them being in charge of how it gets better
October 16, 2025 at 5:27 PM
All of us are individually powerless. We can only form an effective opposition collectively. And when things need to happen on the scale we need them to happen, you’re simply not going to agree with every tactic every group deploys, never mind have a veto on them.
Reposted by Sam Levey
This, from @hamiltonnolan.bsky.social , highlights a consistent aspect of the second Trump Administration that should scare us all -- across a variety of areas (economy, health, climate, etc.), Trump is weakening our protections against the greatest risks. open.substack.com/pub/howthing...
Fragility Is Getting Scary
The opposite of risk management.
open.substack.com
October 13, 2025 at 4:23 PM
This, from @hamiltonnolan.bsky.social , highlights a consistent aspect of the second Trump Administration that should scare us all -- across a variety of areas (economy, health, climate, etc.), Trump is weakening our protections against the greatest risks. open.substack.com/pub/howthing...
Reposted by Sam Levey
"[A]ll universities have to do now is do nothing—no accepting the compact, no counter-offers, nothing—and the government will be left with no more power to coerce and control the First Amendment-protected activities of major American universities than it has today."
I thought I'd put the administration's proposed "compact" with universities in context, so I wrote the blog post below.
It's especially for journalists covering this story!
Many details about how the compact itself works and why the administration has retreated to this strategy.
It's especially for journalists covering this story!
Many details about how the compact itself works and why the administration has retreated to this strategy.
Balkinization: The Art of Replacing the Law with the Deal
A group blog on constitutional law, theory, and politics
balkin.blogspot.com
October 5, 2025 at 4:39 PM
"[A]ll universities have to do now is do nothing—no accepting the compact, no counter-offers, nothing—and the government will be left with no more power to coerce and control the First Amendment-protected activities of major American universities than it has today."
Reposted by Sam Levey
“Terrible things are happening outside. Poor helpless people are being dragged out of their homes. Families are torn apart. Men, women, and children are separated. Children come home from school to find that their parents have disappeared.”
Diary of Anne Frank
January 13, 1943
Diary of Anne Frank
January 13, 1943
October 4, 2025 at 8:17 PM
“Terrible things are happening outside. Poor helpless people are being dragged out of their homes. Families are torn apart. Men, women, and children are separated. Children come home from school to find that their parents have disappeared.”
Diary of Anne Frank
January 13, 1943
Diary of Anne Frank
January 13, 1943
On a productive day I can write about 400 lines of Manim code... which will be like 1.5 minutes of video😅
September 29, 2025 at 5:12 AM
On a productive day I can write about 400 lines of Manim code... which will be like 1.5 minutes of video😅
I still hate LaTeX with the passion of a thousand suns and believe strongly that it deserves to die a painful death..... but, in the AI era, it is a lot more manageable.
September 22, 2025 at 2:58 PM
I still hate LaTeX with the passion of a thousand suns and believe strongly that it deserves to die a painful death..... but, in the AI era, it is a lot more manageable.
Working on an empirical paper sure is forcing me to dig deep into the NIPA manual....
September 21, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Working on an empirical paper sure is forcing me to dig deep into the NIPA manual....
Reposted by Sam Levey
The lesson of history is that tyrants cannot be appeased.
Appeasement only feeds their insatiable hunger for power.
Tyrants prey on people who feel unsafe and vulnerable.
But without mass submission, a tyrant is powerless.
Appeasement only feeds their insatiable hunger for power.
Tyrants prey on people who feel unsafe and vulnerable.
But without mass submission, a tyrant is powerless.
September 20, 2025 at 11:00 PM
The lesson of history is that tyrants cannot be appeased.
Appeasement only feeds their insatiable hunger for power.
Tyrants prey on people who feel unsafe and vulnerable.
But without mass submission, a tyrant is powerless.
Appeasement only feeds their insatiable hunger for power.
Tyrants prey on people who feel unsafe and vulnerable.
But without mass submission, a tyrant is powerless.
Reposted by Sam Levey
Oh wow anti-trust, wealth taxation...you are telling me these can be tools to promote democratic stability and there were a whole boatload of centrist economists who couldn't think beyond deadweight loss and consumer welfare?
September 18, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Oh wow anti-trust, wealth taxation...you are telling me these can be tools to promote democratic stability and there were a whole boatload of centrist economists who couldn't think beyond deadweight loss and consumer welfare?
Reposted by Sam Levey
Yes we actually do need a Project 2029 for liberals
It might seem fanciful to talk about rebuilding now, but the reason the second Trump administration has been able to achieve their goals was via advance planning and personnel. Can't want until election season to be ready for Day 1. H/t @sbagen.bsky.social
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-social...
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-social...
![As University of Michigan law professor and former Department of Health and Human Services General Counsel Sam Bagenstos put it powerfully, when “the forces of good return to power…[w]e will need to be truly ready on day one…to implement a domestic Marshall Plan for the U.S. government.”
Bagenstos persuasively argues that transition efforts cannot simply focus on replacing laid-off civil servants and re-funding federal agencies. Instead, rebuilders need to think much more ambitiously: changing structures of government to reflect the profoundly altered terrain we will encounter.
That planning for the day after the Trump regime should consider the opportunities for federal agencies to engage social scientists in rebuilding federal capacity and crafting public policy. Although we shouldn’t simply replicate the models of the past, we can learn from what has–and hasn’t–worked before in terms of engaging academic researchers in government.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2rrp7amblhg3xoly5n5huiqv/bafkreidd3w2tkcqy6tfklvfhrsokvmy4v2kn43aubdx7t2ytyrcuwwig2e@jpeg)
September 18, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Yes we actually do need a Project 2029 for liberals
Reposted by Sam Levey
As a rough heuristic, it seems like, so far, about half the cost of tariffs have been passed on to consumers, and about half have been absorbed by lower profit margins for import-using American firms. libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/06/are-...
September 13, 2025 at 2:26 AM
As a rough heuristic, it seems like, so far, about half the cost of tariffs have been passed on to consumers, and about half have been absorbed by lower profit margins for import-using American firms. libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/06/are-...
Reposted by Sam Levey
Like the old quote goes, anyone who would give up their liberty in exchange for security will live happily ever after, both free and safe
September 2, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Like the old quote goes, anyone who would give up their liberty in exchange for security will live happily ever after, both free and safe
Reposted by Sam Levey
"Donald Trump is a monster and we desperately want to work with him" is a batshit position to take, it makes you sound like an insincere and feckless empty suit
September 2, 2025 at 7:56 PM
"Donald Trump is a monster and we desperately want to work with him" is a batshit position to take, it makes you sound like an insincere and feckless empty suit
Reposted by Sam Levey
One thing I think is cool is [some] economists saying "we shouldn't do anything that seems helpful until we have studied it empirically" but also "we should continue to use these foundational, somewhat radical postulates about how firms function in markets w/o subjecting them to empirical scrutiny"
September 1, 2025 at 4:58 AM
One thing I think is cool is [some] economists saying "we shouldn't do anything that seems helpful until we have studied it empirically" but also "we should continue to use these foundational, somewhat radical postulates about how firms function in markets w/o subjecting them to empirical scrutiny"
Reposted by Sam Levey
I’m really sick of the courts finding this administration broke the law in some unprecedented way, but they get to keep doing illegal things for a few months as a little treat. They’re defaulting to rewarding lawbreaking.
The ruling, however, doesn’t take effect immediately. The court withheld the mandate for its decision until *Oct. 14*
August 29, 2025 at 11:17 PM
I’m really sick of the courts finding this administration broke the law in some unprecedented way, but they get to keep doing illegal things for a few months as a little treat. They’re defaulting to rewarding lawbreaking.
Reposted by Sam Levey
I think we are in a quantum superposition between democracy and competitive authoritarianism. The 2026 midterms will collapse the wave function: we'll look into the box and see whether the cat is dead or alive.
August 28, 2025 at 1:35 PM
I think we are in a quantum superposition between democracy and competitive authoritarianism. The 2026 midterms will collapse the wave function: we'll look into the box and see whether the cat is dead or alive.
Reposted by Sam Levey
This is a real photograph of Washington, DC this week, where the United States president has ordered military occupation in peacetime, and ordered the display of colossal portraits of himself.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
August 28, 2025 at 10:24 AM
This is a real photograph of Washington, DC this week, where the United States president has ordered military occupation in peacetime, and ordered the display of colossal portraits of himself.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...