Philip Lewis
@pslewis.bsky.social
Head of Global Strategy, Policy & Engagement at The British Academy. Previously at the European Parliament and the UK House of Lords.
Reposted by Philip Lewis
Trade and economic conflicts are only partly about escalation dominance. It's just as much if not more about who has the higher politcal pain threshold and it was clear that it was Europe this time, hence the logic to retaliate if need be. Threat was sufficient.
This time, Europe’s leaders played the EU-US trade game well.
From the Franco-German tough line to Meloni’s off-ramps, backed by a credible €93bn retaliation threat, they made escalation for Trump costly, and de-escalation easy.
Markets and US politics did the rest — Rutte scoring on the assist.
From the Franco-German tough line to Meloni’s off-ramps, backed by a credible €93bn retaliation threat, they made escalation for Trump costly, and de-escalation easy.
Markets and US politics did the rest — Rutte scoring on the assist.
January 21, 2026 at 9:26 PM
Trade and economic conflicts are only partly about escalation dominance. It's just as much if not more about who has the higher politcal pain threshold and it was clear that it was Europe this time, hence the logic to retaliate if need be. Threat was sufficient.
Reposted by Philip Lewis
@britishacademy.bsky.social International Fellowships are now open
Applications are welcome across the #humanities and #socialsciences from early career researchers anywhere in the world to come to 🇬🇧 for 2 years
The deadline is 11 March
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...
Applications are welcome across the #humanities and #socialsciences from early career researchers anywhere in the world to come to 🇬🇧 for 2 years
The deadline is 11 March
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...
International Fellowships 2026
The International Fellowships Programme enables researchers to work for two years at a UK institution with the aim of building a globally connected, mobile research and innovation workforce.
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk
January 15, 2026 at 11:20 PM
@britishacademy.bsky.social International Fellowships are now open
Applications are welcome across the #humanities and #socialsciences from early career researchers anywhere in the world to come to 🇬🇧 for 2 years
The deadline is 11 March
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...
Applications are welcome across the #humanities and #socialsciences from early career researchers anywhere in the world to come to 🇬🇧 for 2 years
The deadline is 11 March
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...
Reposted by Philip Lewis
In the sudden absence of the United States in global affairs, middle powers have an “opportunity to fill the leadership vacuum and exercise agency.”
Stewart Patrick explains the new roles middle powers are playing in international cooperation: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
Stewart Patrick explains the new roles middle powers are playing in international cooperation: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
The Middle Power Moment
Middle powers have an important role to play in reviving international cooperation at this dawning moment of a new multipolar world.
carnegieendowment.org
January 21, 2026 at 5:13 PM
In the sudden absence of the United States in global affairs, middle powers have an “opportunity to fill the leadership vacuum and exercise agency.”
Stewart Patrick explains the new roles middle powers are playing in international cooperation: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
Stewart Patrick explains the new roles middle powers are playing in international cooperation: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
Reposted by Philip Lewis
"We know the old order is not coming back. We shouldn't mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy. But we believe that from the fracture we can build something bigger, better, stronger, more just. This is the task of the middle powers," says PM Mark Carney in Davos speech.
#cdnpoli
#cdnpoli
January 20, 2026 at 5:06 PM
"We know the old order is not coming back. We shouldn't mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy. But we believe that from the fracture we can build something bigger, better, stronger, more just. This is the task of the middle powers," says PM Mark Carney in Davos speech.
#cdnpoli
#cdnpoli
Reposted by Philip Lewis
“The old order is not coming back. We should not mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy.”
As a piece of prose and geopolitical analysis Carney’s Davos speech feels history-making. paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...
As a piece of prose and geopolitical analysis Carney’s Davos speech feels history-making. paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...
The Carney doctrine
Open comment thread on the PM's Davos speech
paulwells.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 7:56 PM
“The old order is not coming back. We should not mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy.”
As a piece of prose and geopolitical analysis Carney’s Davos speech feels history-making. paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...
As a piece of prose and geopolitical analysis Carney’s Davos speech feels history-making. paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...
Reposted by Philip Lewis
We hear it all the time:
Since the turn of the 2010s, thanks to the rise of tech, the US has pulled ahead economically.
This idea is everywhere from Washington to Davos—and it's paralyzing Europe
But it's simply not true!
Let's look at what's really happening, with charts🧵
Since the turn of the 2010s, thanks to the rise of tech, the US has pulled ahead economically.
This idea is everywhere from Washington to Davos—and it's paralyzing Europe
But it's simply not true!
Let's look at what's really happening, with charts🧵
January 20, 2026 at 8:59 PM
We hear it all the time:
Since the turn of the 2010s, thanks to the rise of tech, the US has pulled ahead economically.
This idea is everywhere from Washington to Davos—and it's paralyzing Europe
But it's simply not true!
Let's look at what's really happening, with charts🧵
Since the turn of the 2010s, thanks to the rise of tech, the US has pulled ahead economically.
This idea is everywhere from Washington to Davos—and it's paralyzing Europe
But it's simply not true!
Let's look at what's really happening, with charts🧵
Reposted by Philip Lewis
✨New article out in International Studies Review✨
NGOs are facing backlash, shrinking civic space & increased competition. Here I examine how NGOs can respond by adding new legal entities; or changing funding models.
doi.org/10.1093/isr/...
NGOs are facing backlash, shrinking civic space & increased competition. Here I examine how NGOs can respond by adding new legal entities; or changing funding models.
doi.org/10.1093/isr/...
January 19, 2026 at 11:01 PM
✨New article out in International Studies Review✨
NGOs are facing backlash, shrinking civic space & increased competition. Here I examine how NGOs can respond by adding new legal entities; or changing funding models.
doi.org/10.1093/isr/...
NGOs are facing backlash, shrinking civic space & increased competition. Here I examine how NGOs can respond by adding new legal entities; or changing funding models.
doi.org/10.1093/isr/...
Reposted by Philip Lewis
1/ New Kiel Institute study on 2025 tariffs. The headline finding won't shock anyone who studied 2018-19 tariffs: near-complete pass-through to US importers. Foreign exporters absorbed ~4% of burden; Americans paid ~96%.
www.kielinstitut.de/publications...
www.kielinstitut.de/publications...
America’s Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs? - Kiel Institute
www.kielinstitut.de
January 19, 2026 at 11:09 PM
1/ New Kiel Institute study on 2025 tariffs. The headline finding won't shock anyone who studied 2018-19 tariffs: near-complete pass-through to US importers. Foreign exporters absorbed ~4% of burden; Americans paid ~96%.
www.kielinstitut.de/publications...
www.kielinstitut.de/publications...
Reposted by Philip Lewis
France is pushing for the EU to use its tough anti-coercion law to respond to Donald Trump’s trade blackmail on Greenland, according to French government sources reported in the press today. The EU has “robust” legal weapons to defend itself, the sources said 1/
www.lefigaro.fr/economie/en-...
www.lefigaro.fr/economie/en-...
EN DIRECT - Macron va demander «l’activation de l’instrument anti-coercition» de l’UE en cas de nouveaux droits de douane américains
Donald Trump a menacé huit pays, dont la France, l’Allemagne et le Royaume-Uni, de surtaxes douanières face à leur opposition à ses velléités de s’emparer du Groenland, provoquant l’indignation des Eu...
www.lefigaro.fr
January 18, 2026 at 11:00 AM
France is pushing for the EU to use its tough anti-coercion law to respond to Donald Trump’s trade blackmail on Greenland, according to French government sources reported in the press today. The EU has “robust” legal weapons to defend itself, the sources said 1/
www.lefigaro.fr/economie/en-...
www.lefigaro.fr/economie/en-...
Reposted by Philip Lewis
Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/
January 18, 2026 at 3:04 AM
Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/
Reposted by Philip Lewis
All key European leaders now said they won’t go along with this. So if the objective was coercion it has already failed. (This is not a US miscalculation- its a very Trumpian one).
Keir Starmer often takes 2-3 days to issue very mild criticism of US actions. This is both direct and issued fast.
I think there is a serious risk that the US miscalculated quite what a big deal the Greenland thing is to Europe (and in Europe).
I think there is a serious risk that the US miscalculated quite what a big deal the Greenland thing is to Europe (and in Europe).
NEW - Starmer says US "completely wrong" in threatening tariffs over Greenland
January 17, 2026 at 9:11 PM
All key European leaders now said they won’t go along with this. So if the objective was coercion it has already failed. (This is not a US miscalculation- its a very Trumpian one).
Reposted by Philip Lewis
EPP chair Manfred Weber says EP will not approve EU US tariff deal
"The EPP is in favour of the EU–U.S. trade deal, but given Donald Trump’s threats regarding Greenland, approval is not possible at this stage. The 0% tariffs on U.S. products must be put on hold."
"The EPP is in favour of the EU–U.S. trade deal, but given Donald Trump’s threats regarding Greenland, approval is not possible at this stage. The 0% tariffs on U.S. products must be put on hold."
January 17, 2026 at 8:13 PM
EPP chair Manfred Weber says EP will not approve EU US tariff deal
"The EPP is in favour of the EU–U.S. trade deal, but given Donald Trump’s threats regarding Greenland, approval is not possible at this stage. The 0% tariffs on U.S. products must be put on hold."
"The EPP is in favour of the EU–U.S. trade deal, but given Donald Trump’s threats regarding Greenland, approval is not possible at this stage. The 0% tariffs on U.S. products must be put on hold."
Reposted by Philip Lewis
Trump says he'll impose a 10% tariff (rising to 25% in June) on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands and Finland, because they've sent people to Greenland, until the US can buy Greenland.
January 17, 2026 at 4:24 PM
Trump says he'll impose a 10% tariff (rising to 25% in June) on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands and Finland, because they've sent people to Greenland, until the US can buy Greenland.
Reposted by Philip Lewis
Last year, we made the decision to step away from X.
The Royal Irish Academy is committed to creating, convening, and sharing knowledge for the public good and as an organisation we value Independence; Integrity; Curiosity; Openness and Rigour.
In our view, X no longer aligns with these values
The Royal Irish Academy is committed to creating, convening, and sharing knowledge for the public good and as an organisation we value Independence; Integrity; Curiosity; Openness and Rigour.
In our view, X no longer aligns with these values
January 17, 2026 at 11:11 AM
Last year, we made the decision to step away from X.
The Royal Irish Academy is committed to creating, convening, and sharing knowledge for the public good and as an organisation we value Independence; Integrity; Curiosity; Openness and Rigour.
In our view, X no longer aligns with these values
The Royal Irish Academy is committed to creating, convening, and sharing knowledge for the public good and as an organisation we value Independence; Integrity; Curiosity; Openness and Rigour.
In our view, X no longer aligns with these values
Reposted by Philip Lewis
This is why there's a whole chapter in my book about the damage the grid has done to policy making.
January 16, 2026 at 10:04 PM
This is why there's a whole chapter in my book about the damage the grid has done to policy making.
Reposted by Philip Lewis
'While having not made any official announcement about leaving X, UKRI posted just once in 2025—to share the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology’s announcement that Ian Chapman had been appointed the agency’s next chief executive.' 1/2
👀 UK Research and Innovation and its councils quietly quit X / Twitter.
Funding agency has “been using alternative platforms” amid ongoing controversies over social media company.
www.researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-uk-r...
Funding agency has “been using alternative platforms” amid ongoing controversies over social media company.
www.researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news-uk-r...
UK Research and Innovation and its councils quietly quit X - Research Professional News
Funding agency has “been using alternative platforms” amid ongoing controversies over social media company
www.researchprofessionalnews.com
January 17, 2026 at 11:47 AM
'While having not made any official announcement about leaving X, UKRI posted just once in 2025—to share the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology’s announcement that Ian Chapman had been appointed the agency’s next chief executive.' 1/2
Reposted by Philip Lewis
Please help spread the word on this, especially to those who may be feeling cold winds towards their research.
We’ve opened the call for our International Fellowships, enabling early career researchers to work for two years at a UK research institution
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...
We’ve opened the call for our International Fellowships, enabling early career researchers to work for two years at a UK research institution
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...
January 15, 2026 at 8:00 PM
Please help spread the word on this, especially to those who may be feeling cold winds towards their research.
We’ve opened the call for our International Fellowships, enabling early career researchers to work for two years at a UK research institution
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...
We’ve opened the call for our International Fellowships, enabling early career researchers to work for two years at a UK research institution
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...
@britishacademy.bsky.social International Fellowships are now open
Applications are welcome across the #humanities and #socialsciences from early career researchers anywhere in the world to come to 🇬🇧 for 2 years
The deadline is 11 March
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...
Applications are welcome across the #humanities and #socialsciences from early career researchers anywhere in the world to come to 🇬🇧 for 2 years
The deadline is 11 March
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...
International Fellowships 2026
The International Fellowships Programme enables researchers to work for two years at a UK institution with the aim of building a globally connected, mobile research and innovation workforce.
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk
January 15, 2026 at 11:20 PM
@britishacademy.bsky.social International Fellowships are now open
Applications are welcome across the #humanities and #socialsciences from early career researchers anywhere in the world to come to 🇬🇧 for 2 years
The deadline is 11 March
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...
Applications are welcome across the #humanities and #socialsciences from early career researchers anywhere in the world to come to 🇬🇧 for 2 years
The deadline is 11 March
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/sche...
Reposted by Philip Lewis
Sobering piece on the Berlin power outage showing resilience is tricky -
People had cars trapped behind electrically operated garage doors.
First day alerts sent to people’s phones ‘which included links to websites that were impossible to access without the internet.’
www.ft.com/content/c91d...
People had cars trapped behind electrically operated garage doors.
First day alerts sent to people’s phones ‘which included links to websites that were impossible to access without the internet.’
www.ft.com/content/c91d...
Berlin in the dark: a power outage shakes Germany
Arson that left parts of German capital without electricity for days highlights poor energy infrastructure
www.ft.com
January 9, 2026 at 7:49 AM
Sobering piece on the Berlin power outage showing resilience is tricky -
People had cars trapped behind electrically operated garage doors.
First day alerts sent to people’s phones ‘which included links to websites that were impossible to access without the internet.’
www.ft.com/content/c91d...
People had cars trapped behind electrically operated garage doors.
First day alerts sent to people’s phones ‘which included links to websites that were impossible to access without the internet.’
www.ft.com/content/c91d...
Reposted by Philip Lewis
📊Those 🇩🇪numbers are even more dramatic when looking at responses according to party preference, laying bare how much of an outlier AfD is.
Excluding AfD voters, we get:
🇫🇷 93.5% trust in France
🇬🇧 89.75% trust in UK
🇺🇦 62.5% trust in Ukraine
🇺🇸 8.5% trust in USA ‼️
🇷🇺 3% trust in Russia.
Short 🧵
Excluding AfD voters, we get:
🇫🇷 93.5% trust in France
🇬🇧 89.75% trust in UK
🇺🇦 62.5% trust in Ukraine
🇺🇸 8.5% trust in USA ‼️
🇷🇺 3% trust in Russia.
Short 🧵
January 9, 2026 at 8:29 PM
📊Those 🇩🇪numbers are even more dramatic when looking at responses according to party preference, laying bare how much of an outlier AfD is.
Excluding AfD voters, we get:
🇫🇷 93.5% trust in France
🇬🇧 89.75% trust in UK
🇺🇦 62.5% trust in Ukraine
🇺🇸 8.5% trust in USA ‼️
🇷🇺 3% trust in Russia.
Short 🧵
Excluding AfD voters, we get:
🇫🇷 93.5% trust in France
🇬🇧 89.75% trust in UK
🇺🇦 62.5% trust in Ukraine
🇺🇸 8.5% trust in USA ‼️
🇷🇺 3% trust in Russia.
Short 🧵
Reposted by Philip Lewis
A ten-part thread on misreading Trump:
A number of thoughtful observers argued Trump would not pursue regime change in Venezuela. From the outset I argued that he would on the podcast and in private conversation.
A number of thoughtful observers argued Trump would not pursue regime change in Venezuela. From the outset I argued that he would on the podcast and in private conversation.
January 3, 2026 at 10:55 AM
A ten-part thread on misreading Trump:
A number of thoughtful observers argued Trump would not pursue regime change in Venezuela. From the outset I argued that he would on the podcast and in private conversation.
A number of thoughtful observers argued Trump would not pursue regime change in Venezuela. From the outset I argued that he would on the podcast and in private conversation.
Reposted by Philip Lewis
I don't think the "stakeholder state" is useful framing but the "regulatory state" has grown massively.
It's not a conspiracy against govt though but a function of centralisation (and privatisation). Ministers can't cope with responsibility for everything so set up agencies and regulators.
It's not a conspiracy against govt though but a function of centralisation (and privatisation). Ministers can't cope with responsibility for everything so set up agencies and regulators.
January 2, 2026 at 8:26 AM
I don't think the "stakeholder state" is useful framing but the "regulatory state" has grown massively.
It's not a conspiracy against govt though but a function of centralisation (and privatisation). Ministers can't cope with responsibility for everything so set up agencies and regulators.
It's not a conspiracy against govt though but a function of centralisation (and privatisation). Ministers can't cope with responsibility for everything so set up agencies and regulators.
Reposted by Philip Lewis
I have a piece on @bloomberg.com today about why the global collapse of the centre-right is the most important political trend of the past decade. And whether it can recover.
(Gift link)
eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3...
(Gift link)
eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3...
Embracing the Radical Right Is Killing Conservatism as We Knew It
Mainstream center-right parties in the US and Europe have chased populist voters — only to lose economic credibility and fracture their winning coalitions.
eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com
January 2, 2026 at 10:45 AM
I have a piece on @bloomberg.com today about why the global collapse of the centre-right is the most important political trend of the past decade. And whether it can recover.
(Gift link)
eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3...
(Gift link)
eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3...
Reposted by Philip Lewis
How 2026 was depicted in the sci-fi classic 'Metropolis' (1927)
January 1, 2026 at 10:10 PM
How 2026 was depicted in the sci-fi classic 'Metropolis' (1927)
Reposted by Philip Lewis
Ex-Meta chief AI scientist Yann LeCun has Lunch with the FT and in one of those instances so rare that you know he didn't sign an NDA, says exactly why as.ft.com/r/e503690d-8...
January 2, 2026 at 1:32 PM
Ex-Meta chief AI scientist Yann LeCun has Lunch with the FT and in one of those instances so rare that you know he didn't sign an NDA, says exactly why as.ft.com/r/e503690d-8...