Persuasion UK
@persuasionuk.bsky.social
Researching what is shaping UK public opinion on the issues that define our politics @ persuasionuk.org.
Director: @steveakehurst.bsky.social
Deputy Director: @lornagreenwood.bsky.social
Director: @steveakehurst.bsky.social
Deputy Director: @lornagreenwood.bsky.social
Reposted by Persuasion UK
Tactically I think Reeves made best of a bad situation today - the individual measures were sensible and some good stuff in there.
But we're 4 years from an election not 4 months. Key is whether less pain now (re: manifesto) now means less progress on public services, cost of living etc by 2029.
But we're 4 years from an election not 4 months. Key is whether less pain now (re: manifesto) now means less progress on public services, cost of living etc by 2029.
I think a government in a stronger political position would have been prepared to be bolder at the moment.
November 26, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Tactically I think Reeves made best of a bad situation today - the individual measures were sensible and some good stuff in there.
But we're 4 years from an election not 4 months. Key is whether less pain now (re: manifesto) now means less progress on public services, cost of living etc by 2029.
But we're 4 years from an election not 4 months. Key is whether less pain now (re: manifesto) now means less progress on public services, cost of living etc by 2029.
Reposted by Persuasion UK
This is correct, I think. And it's also the case that lots of voters always believed taxes would go up. Because the *public are not fools*.
Voters resigned to tax rises, despite Labour and Conservative pledges | Ipsos share.google/7kg2JnLmBPN3...
Voters resigned to tax rises, despite Labour and Conservative pledges | Ipsos share.google/7kg2JnLmBPN3...
October 29, 2025 at 5:26 PM
This is correct, I think. And it's also the case that lots of voters always believed taxes would go up. Because the *public are not fools*.
Voters resigned to tax rises, despite Labour and Conservative pledges | Ipsos share.google/7kg2JnLmBPN3...
Voters resigned to tax rises, despite Labour and Conservative pledges | Ipsos share.google/7kg2JnLmBPN3...
Reposted by Persuasion UK
Must read for Labour - then they can't say they weren't told!
Ahead of Budget, where do voters stand on tax and the dilemmas facing government?
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.
TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.
🧵
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.
TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.
🧵
October 29, 2025 at 12:23 PM
Must read for Labour - then they can't say they weren't told!
Reposted by Persuasion UK
Fascinating report out today looking at the choices facing Labour ahead of the budget - there are no good options but failing on core progressive goals is a much bigger risk for Labour govt than breaking promises on tax.
Ahead of Budget, where do voters stand on tax and the dilemmas facing government?
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.
TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.
🧵
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.
TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.
🧵
October 29, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Fascinating report out today looking at the choices facing Labour ahead of the budget - there are no good options but failing on core progressive goals is a much bigger risk for Labour govt than breaking promises on tax.
Reposted by Persuasion UK
Ahead of Budget, where do voters stand on tax and the dilemmas facing government?
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.
TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.
🧵
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.
TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.
🧵
October 29, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Ahead of Budget, where do voters stand on tax and the dilemmas facing government?
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.
TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.
🧵
Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.
TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.
🧵
WATCH: @steveakehurst.bsky.social discusses our latest research on the government's 'least worst option' on tax rises with @anooshc.bsky.social on the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social podcast. www.youtube.com/watch?v=zV73...
Labour CAN raise tax, if… | UK Politics | The New Statesman
YouTube video by The New Statesman
www.youtube.com
October 29, 2025 at 8:36 AM
WATCH: @steveakehurst.bsky.social discusses our latest research on the government's 'least worst option' on tax rises with @anooshc.bsky.social on the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social podcast. www.youtube.com/watch?v=zV73...
NEW: our latest research on where voters stand on tax rises v improvements on public services and cost of living is out now. Read it here: persuasionuk.org/research/bud...
Exclusive: New polling signals Rachel Reeves could get away with breaking tax promises
"The rewards for measurable positive change outweigh the risks of breaking promises trapping her in a cycle of unpopular tinkering and tweaks"
📊 @anooshc.bsky.social
"The rewards for measurable positive change outweigh the risks of breaking promises trapping her in a cycle of unpopular tinkering and tweaks"
📊 @anooshc.bsky.social
Exclusive: New polling signals Rachel Reeves could break tax promises
The first “trade-off” analysis of public attitudes towards tax rises suggests Labour could raise income tax in the Budget
www.newstatesman.com
October 29, 2025 at 8:32 AM
NEW: our latest research on where voters stand on tax rises v improvements on public services and cost of living is out now. Read it here: persuasionuk.org/research/bud...
Interesting from @samfr.bsky.social as ever "...young women’s leftwards turn is not just an issue for parties on the right, it’s a problem for centre-left parties too. They are fixating about the loss of older voters to the radical right [while] haemorrhaging young women to parties like the Greens"
Why are young women increasingly left-wing?
And how it could change politics
open.substack.com
July 23, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Interesting from @samfr.bsky.social as ever "...young women’s leftwards turn is not just an issue for parties on the right, it’s a problem for centre-left parties too. They are fixating about the loss of older voters to the radical right [while] haemorrhaging young women to parties like the Greens"
Nigel Farage makes mistakes just like any other politician and his close relationship with Trump is a big one, as explained by Persuasion Director, Steve Akehurst on the @newstatesman.com podcast:
Read the full research here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...
Read the full research here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...
Farage and Trump relationship a problem for Reform | UK Politics | The New Statesman
YouTube video by The New Statesman
www.youtube.com
July 18, 2025 at 9:03 AM
Nigel Farage makes mistakes just like any other politician and his close relationship with Trump is a big one, as explained by Persuasion Director, Steve Akehurst on the @newstatesman.com podcast:
Read the full research here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...
Read the full research here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...
Reposted by Persuasion UK
We know a lot about what makes people vote Reform. But what kind of opposition messages might Reform or Farage be vulnerable to?
Some new @persuasionuk.bsky.social research out today as featured on @newstatesman.com pod! Give it a read if you want.
strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/what-messa...
Some new @persuasionuk.bsky.social research out today as featured on @newstatesman.com pod! Give it a read if you want.
strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/what-messa...
What messages might Reform be vulnerable to?
Exploring weaknesses in the Farage brand - an experiment.
strongmessagehere.substack.com
July 15, 2025 at 8:09 AM
We know a lot about what makes people vote Reform. But what kind of opposition messages might Reform or Farage be vulnerable to?
Some new @persuasionuk.bsky.social research out today as featured on @newstatesman.com pod! Give it a read if you want.
strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/what-messa...
Some new @persuasionuk.bsky.social research out today as featured on @newstatesman.com pod! Give it a read if you want.
strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/what-messa...
WATCH Persuasion Director @steveakehurst.bsky.social discuss our latest research on Reform's brand weaknesses on the @newstatesman.com podcast with @rmcunliffe.bsky.social and Anoosh Chakelian:
youtu.be/7uT0R_FBllE?...
youtu.be/7uT0R_FBllE?...
Labour must say THIS to beat Reform | UK politics | The New Statesman
YouTube video by The New Statesman
youtu.be
July 15, 2025 at 8:57 AM
WATCH Persuasion Director @steveakehurst.bsky.social discuss our latest research on Reform's brand weaknesses on the @newstatesman.com podcast with @rmcunliffe.bsky.social and Anoosh Chakelian:
youtu.be/7uT0R_FBllE?...
youtu.be/7uT0R_FBllE?...
Reposted by Persuasion UK
This is fascinating research -
Attacking Reform on links to Trump and corporate interests reduces support for them.
Whereas showing video of Labour going after small boats perhaps marginally increases support for Reform.
Attacking Reform on links to Trump and corporate interests reduces support for them.
Whereas showing video of Labour going after small boats perhaps marginally increases support for Reform.
We know a lot about what makes people vote Reform. But what kind of opposition messages might Reform or Farage be vulnerable to?
Some new @persuasionuk.bsky.social research out today as featured on @newstatesman.com pod! Give it a read if you want.
strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/what-messa...
Some new @persuasionuk.bsky.social research out today as featured on @newstatesman.com pod! Give it a read if you want.
strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/what-messa...
What messages might Reform be vulnerable to?
Exploring weaknesses in the Farage brand - an experiment.
strongmessagehere.substack.com
July 15, 2025 at 8:16 AM
This is fascinating research -
Attacking Reform on links to Trump and corporate interests reduces support for them.
Whereas showing video of Labour going after small boats perhaps marginally increases support for Reform.
Attacking Reform on links to Trump and corporate interests reduces support for them.
Whereas showing video of Labour going after small boats perhaps marginally increases support for Reform.
Reposted by Persuasion UK
Quite an interesting gender gap opening up in vote intention at the mo: Reform vote notably more male, residual Con vote more female.
Boris’ 2019 coalition was unusually male by historic standards, and has fractured in quite gendered ways.
Lab->Green also more female than Lab->LDs, curiously.
Boris’ 2019 coalition was unusually male by historic standards, and has fractured in quite gendered ways.
Lab->Green also more female than Lab->LDs, curiously.
June 4, 2025 at 10:31 AM
Quite an interesting gender gap opening up in vote intention at the mo: Reform vote notably more male, residual Con vote more female.
Boris’ 2019 coalition was unusually male by historic standards, and has fractured in quite gendered ways.
Lab->Green also more female than Lab->LDs, curiously.
Boris’ 2019 coalition was unusually male by historic standards, and has fractured in quite gendered ways.
Lab->Green also more female than Lab->LDs, curiously.
Reposted by Persuasion UK
This is the same as hospitals, police, climate change etc. Huge gap between % who say they want more govt spending and % who say they'd pay more themselves.
Task for govt is to make the case for why we need to pay more now, to save money later. Chart from @steveakehurst.bsky.social
Task for govt is to make the case for why we need to pay more now, to save money later. Chart from @steveakehurst.bsky.social
June 3, 2025 at 8:16 AM
This is the same as hospitals, police, climate change etc. Huge gap between % who say they want more govt spending and % who say they'd pay more themselves.
Task for govt is to make the case for why we need to pay more now, to save money later. Chart from @steveakehurst.bsky.social
Task for govt is to make the case for why we need to pay more now, to save money later. Chart from @steveakehurst.bsky.social
Reposted by Persuasion UK
Everything you need to know about the British voting public
June 2, 2025 at 5:45 PM
Everything you need to know about the British voting public
Reposted by Persuasion UK
Jason Cowley suggests that being 'net zero supporting' is the preserve of the 'metropolitan liberal-left' against 'working class Labour' when polling consistently shows that the majority of the public support net zero. Lazy stereotyping doesn't make it true. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
Broken Labour agrees on one thing: frustration with Keir Starmer
Faced with a divided party and disaffected voters, this month’s spending review is of critical importance to the government as it seeks to balance the books and plan for the future
www.thetimes.com
June 2, 2025 at 6:14 AM
Jason Cowley suggests that being 'net zero supporting' is the preserve of the 'metropolitan liberal-left' against 'working class Labour' when polling consistently shows that the majority of the public support net zero. Lazy stereotyping doesn't make it true. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
Reposted by Persuasion UK
"...core voter groups can leave political parties suddenly if they don’t feel we are serving them." This backs up Persuasion's research which is referenced in Jeevun's piece.
Newbie Labour MP (but very much *not* a newbie economist!) @jeevunsandher.bsky.social doesn't only down pints, he also posts consistently interesting stuff on his substack - this week on "We can’t just target Reform or Green voters. Here’s how we get both" jeevunsandher.substack.com/p/last-weeks...
May 7, 2025 at 10:50 AM
"...core voter groups can leave political parties suddenly if they don’t feel we are serving them." This backs up Persuasion's research which is referenced in Jeevun's piece.
"...this is the time for outright confrontation with the dark forces of the right, reaffirming social democratic and liberal progressive optimism."
@pollytoynbee.bsky.social uses our research to show that progressive policies can save Labour's voter coalition www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
@pollytoynbee.bsky.social uses our research to show that progressive policies can save Labour's voter coalition www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
The lesson for Labour? Until it can improve local lives and stop fearing Farage, more losses are coming | Polly Toynbee
Rapid, highly visible action in communities and a forthright attack on the new right – that is what’s needed now, says Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee
www.theguardian.com
May 7, 2025 at 9:24 AM
"...this is the time for outright confrontation with the dark forces of the right, reaffirming social democratic and liberal progressive optimism."
@pollytoynbee.bsky.social uses our research to show that progressive policies can save Labour's voter coalition www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
@pollytoynbee.bsky.social uses our research to show that progressive policies can save Labour's voter coalition www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Reposted by Persuasion UK
A glimmer of hope for Labour – its vote share rises to 36% if Reform is its main opponent (via @persuasionuk.bsky.social).
April 30, 2025 at 8:08 PM
A glimmer of hope for Labour – its vote share rises to 36% if Reform is its main opponent (via @persuasionuk.bsky.social).
Correct! Read our report for more info on this: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...
April 30, 2025 at 6:57 AM
Correct! Read our report for more info on this: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...
Good to see @jessicaelgot.bsky.social using our research to show that Net Zero remains popular and that Labour needs to pay as much attention to its left flank as its Reform curious voters. www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
Phasing out fossil fuels ‘doomed to fail’, says Tony Blair as he calls for rethink of net zero policy – as it happened
‘Any strategy based on either phasing out fossil fuels in the short term or limiting consumption is a strategy doomed to fail,’ says former PM
www.theguardian.com
April 30, 2025 at 5:42 AM
Good to see @jessicaelgot.bsky.social using our research to show that Net Zero remains popular and that Labour needs to pay as much attention to its left flank as its Reform curious voters. www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
Reposted by Persuasion UK
'Maybe it’s not just schoolboys who should be sat down and made to watch Netflix’s Adolescence, as MPs keep arguing, but their fathers."
@gabyhinsliff.bsky.social on our surprise finding that Gen Z men aren't as extreme as we might think.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
@gabyhinsliff.bsky.social on our surprise finding that Gen Z men aren't as extreme as we might think.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
We obsess over the angry young men going Reform. But what of the anxious young women going Green? | Gaby Hinsliff
Desire for a politics that cares about global and local injustice is sharpening the political gender divide, says Guardian columnist Gaby Hinsliff
www.theguardian.com
April 29, 2025 at 5:48 AM
'Maybe it’s not just schoolboys who should be sat down and made to watch Netflix’s Adolescence, as MPs keep arguing, but their fathers."
@gabyhinsliff.bsky.social on our surprise finding that Gen Z men aren't as extreme as we might think.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
@gabyhinsliff.bsky.social on our surprise finding that Gen Z men aren't as extreme as we might think.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
‘Reform curious’ Labour voters are generally in favour of Net Zero compared to core Reform voters who have a lot of hostility towards it.
Read more here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...
Read more here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...
April 28, 2025 at 2:31 PM
‘Reform curious’ Labour voters are generally in favour of Net Zero compared to core Reform voters who have a lot of hostility towards it.
Read more here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...
Read more here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...
Reposted by Persuasion UK
This is excellent research from @steveakehurst.bsky.social. Urge everyone to read for an *informed* take on the voters Labour is losing to Reform.
NEW: Who are the voters Labour risks losing to Reform?
How might Lab unite them with the rest of its election winning coalition? How might Reform win them over?
Some big new research out today with @persuasionuk.bsky.social as featured by @greenmirandahere.bsky.social in today's FT 🧵👇
How might Lab unite them with the rest of its election winning coalition? How might Reform win them over?
Some big new research out today with @persuasionuk.bsky.social as featured by @greenmirandahere.bsky.social in today's FT 🧵👇
Getting to know 'Reform curious Labour voters'
exploring the attitudes, demography and values of Reform curious Labour voters and the coalitional dilemmas they lose
persuasionuk.org
April 28, 2025 at 7:46 AM
This is excellent research from @steveakehurst.bsky.social. Urge everyone to read for an *informed* take on the voters Labour is losing to Reform.
Reposted by Persuasion UK
Great report that largely confirms what we have found for other countries. 1) Potential losses to Reform are dwarved by potential losses to Greens/LibDems. 2) Moving right on immigration has very small effect on retaining potential Reform voters. Net gains/losses largely cancel each other out.
NEW: Who are the voters Labour risks losing to Reform?
How might Lab unite them with the rest of its election winning coalition? How might Reform win them over?
Some big new research out today with @persuasionuk.bsky.social as featured by @greenmirandahere.bsky.social in today's FT 🧵👇
How might Lab unite them with the rest of its election winning coalition? How might Reform win them over?
Some big new research out today with @persuasionuk.bsky.social as featured by @greenmirandahere.bsky.social in today's FT 🧵👇
Getting to know 'Reform curious Labour voters'
exploring the attitudes, demography and values of Reform curious Labour voters and the coalitional dilemmas they lose
persuasionuk.org
April 28, 2025 at 8:26 AM
Great report that largely confirms what we have found for other countries. 1) Potential losses to Reform are dwarved by potential losses to Greens/LibDems. 2) Moving right on immigration has very small effect on retaining potential Reform voters. Net gains/losses largely cancel each other out.