Theo Landsman
@ordinalandsman.bsky.social
Senior Political Analyst at YouGov Blue, Political Science PhD candidate , Ranked Ballot Nerd, Map poster.
The dynamics of the redistricting fight are fascinating to me from a 'are legislators self interested or not' perspective. Blue state Rs have basically accepted that their political careers are being sacrificed so that right wing psychos in the Houston suburbs can go have fun being in Congress.
February 7, 2026 at 9:19 PM
The dynamics of the redistricting fight are fascinating to me from a 'are legislators self interested or not' perspective. Blue state Rs have basically accepted that their political careers are being sacrificed so that right wing psychos in the Houston suburbs can go have fun being in Congress.
It doesn't often come up, but there is a latent dimension with the filibuster of outsider pols who see it as a way for 1 incumbent to disrupt the status quo vs more party building oriented pols who see it as a way to obnoxiously grandstand that makes everything worse. Happened with Sanders too.
i was not aware until now that crockett has been mealy-mouthed on the filibuster. this strikes me as a much more substantive point in talarico's favor than probable-but-not-provable electability judgments
February 1, 2026 at 8:12 PM
It doesn't often come up, but there is a latent dimension with the filibuster of outsider pols who see it as a way for 1 incumbent to disrupt the status quo vs more party building oriented pols who see it as a way to obnoxiously grandstand that makes everything worse. Happened with Sanders too.
Reposted by Theo Landsman
disturbingly plausible
January 30, 2026 at 7:35 PM
disturbingly plausible
I try to stay off Xitter these days but it's been fascinating watching right wingers start to come to terms with the fact that there is no cleansing or redemptive power in violence that can make their policy goals achievable and gradually going insane.
January 28, 2026 at 3:35 PM
I try to stay off Xitter these days but it's been fascinating watching right wingers start to come to terms with the fact that there is no cleansing or redemptive power in violence that can make their policy goals achievable and gradually going insane.
I think this is basically correct but more broadly they are trying to use citizen ignorance about the kinds of voter data that is widely available to gin up a panic about being targeted through your voter registration. It's not so much a sincere ask as an implicit but disingenuous threat.
The DOJ demand for voter rolls is not about micro-targeting. That kind of voter data is already freely available between the public voter lists and data brokers. The difference in what they're demanding is more technical backend metadata so they can make spurious claims about list maintenance.
January 26, 2026 at 4:12 PM
I think this is basically correct but more broadly they are trying to use citizen ignorance about the kinds of voter data that is widely available to gin up a panic about being targeted through your voter registration. It's not so much a sincere ask as an implicit but disingenuous threat.
Reposted by Theo Landsman
The DOJ demand for voter rolls is not about micro-targeting. That kind of voter data is already freely available between the public voter lists and data brokers. The difference in what they're demanding is more technical backend metadata so they can make spurious claims about list maintenance.
January 26, 2026 at 3:47 PM
The DOJ demand for voter rolls is not about micro-targeting. That kind of voter data is already freely available between the public voter lists and data brokers. The difference in what they're demanding is more technical backend metadata so they can make spurious claims about list maintenance.
Seeing calls for Dems to offer Greenland an independence referendum in 2029 if Trump really annexes it, but the clear solution is for the rest of the U.S. to be turned into a non-state territory which the Greenland Dems disingenuously claim will be given sovereignty or statehood every few years.
January 21, 2026 at 4:21 PM
Seeing calls for Dems to offer Greenland an independence referendum in 2029 if Trump really annexes it, but the clear solution is for the rest of the U.S. to be turned into a non-state territory which the Greenland Dems disingenuously claim will be given sovereignty or statehood every few years.
Reposted by Theo Landsman
YOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Cool flag, right? Fucking sick.
The Roaring Bear Flag. That and so much more, available at wideawakes.army 👁 🫡
Cool flag, right? Fucking sick.
The Roaring Bear Flag. That and so much more, available at wideawakes.army 👁 🫡
January 9, 2026 at 4:15 AM
YOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Cool flag, right? Fucking sick.
The Roaring Bear Flag. That and so much more, available at wideawakes.army 👁 🫡
Cool flag, right? Fucking sick.
The Roaring Bear Flag. That and so much more, available at wideawakes.army 👁 🫡
So far Goldman vs Lander is looking like a pretty solid test case for my "competitive races that are not structurally pre-determined (e.g. huge recession, backlash to scandal, etc) are won by the person who wants it more' theory.
January 7, 2026 at 3:31 PM
So far Goldman vs Lander is looking like a pretty solid test case for my "competitive races that are not structurally pre-determined (e.g. huge recession, backlash to scandal, etc) are won by the person who wants it more' theory.
The irony here is that the Roman senate was both far more administratively critical and much more protective of its own power than the U.S. Senate is today even centuries into the imperial period.
You ever think about how the Roman Senate kept meeting centuries into the reigns of emperors. Hanging out, shooting the shit, giving speeches, and play-acting that their positions of privilege remained positions of power.
January 4, 2026 at 3:45 AM
The irony here is that the Roman senate was both far more administratively critical and much more protective of its own power than the U.S. Senate is today even centuries into the imperial period.
I feel like the through line to a lot of these shockingly polite and insightful local wing nut takes on Mamdani is that the kind of politics leftists want to do, retail driven, pluralist, material demand oriented, is actually a reality in New York City in ways that it isn't even at the state level.
this is the most incredible interview i’ve ever read. the aei guy tries so hard to get sliwa to trash mamdani and he simply won’t. he also brings up flaco (rip) unprompted.
www.wsj.com/opinion/free...
www.wsj.com/opinion/free...
![How would you describe Mamdani's politics?
He's not a communist. People call him that. That's ridiculous. He is a democratic socialist. David Dinkins [New York mayor from 1990-93] was a democratic socialist. We've had a long history in New York City of socialism.
What's the biggest challenge Mamdani faces as mayor!
I don't think the Zohranistas totally understand the fiscal irresponsibility we just went through with the Adams years and how little money there's left.
There's not enough money to do all the things that Zohran wants to do.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ssxnmhdtz6le6nxu7jfhglz6/bafkreic7pxra6vmrjmqo4jmw4vdagiluj6xtkovqb3f4ex7fc55m7pzaxu@jpeg)
January 2, 2026 at 4:20 PM
I feel like the through line to a lot of these shockingly polite and insightful local wing nut takes on Mamdani is that the kind of politics leftists want to do, retail driven, pluralist, material demand oriented, is actually a reality in New York City in ways that it isn't even at the state level.
Reposted by Theo Landsman
from: dbrooks@nytimes.com
subj.: DC recs
Hey Jeff, taking a young friend to lunch next week in DC. Was thinking we'd try Radici?
from: jeevacation@gmail.com
subj.: re: DC recs
not a good idea .. xexican food prolly more her style. good cantina down the street ,, very "spicy"
subj.: DC recs
Hey Jeff, taking a young friend to lunch next week in DC. Was thinking we'd try Radici?
from: jeevacation@gmail.com
subj.: re: DC recs
not a good idea .. xexican food prolly more her style. good cantina down the street ,, very "spicy"
December 18, 2025 at 6:52 PM
from: dbrooks@nytimes.com
subj.: DC recs
Hey Jeff, taking a young friend to lunch next week in DC. Was thinking we'd try Radici?
from: jeevacation@gmail.com
subj.: re: DC recs
not a good idea .. xexican food prolly more her style. good cantina down the street ,, very "spicy"
subj.: DC recs
Hey Jeff, taking a young friend to lunch next week in DC. Was thinking we'd try Radici?
from: jeevacation@gmail.com
subj.: re: DC recs
not a good idea .. xexican food prolly more her style. good cantina down the street ,, very "spicy"
This is a useful thread but I also feel like on a conceptual level there is an unreasonable desire to have it both ways here in survey research. We want lower info, less considered responses because the types of people who give them are under-surveyed, then we get mad that they're not very coherent.
Cannot possibly stress how little I'm looking forward to the next wave of discussion on survey measurement of antisemitism and conspiratorial thinking and, particularly, the intersection w/ potential opt-in sample quality issues, but...probably we should have that discussion.
December 15, 2025 at 6:07 PM
This is a useful thread but I also feel like on a conceptual level there is an unreasonable desire to have it both ways here in survey research. We want lower info, less considered responses because the types of people who give them are under-surveyed, then we get mad that they're not very coherent.
This also really complicates the 'Behn was a bad fit for the district' discourse. She ran in a district that was 1/3rd of a normal Dem district that could easily elect a progressive Dem and 2/3rds of a deep red rural district. Hard to get 'candidate fit' when the district itself is frankensteined.
TN07 is a story about gerrymandering: the GOP cracked Nashville into 3 districts when it redrew the 2022 map, destroying the Dem seat there.
Fast-forward: a section of Nashville, which just 5 years ago had a Dem representative, is now voting Dem by huge margins but it's been designed to not matter.
Fast-forward: a section of Nashville, which just 5 years ago had a Dem representative, is now voting Dem by huge margins but it's been designed to not matter.
December 3, 2025 at 4:34 PM
This also really complicates the 'Behn was a bad fit for the district' discourse. She ran in a district that was 1/3rd of a normal Dem district that could easily elect a progressive Dem and 2/3rds of a deep red rural district. Hard to get 'candidate fit' when the district itself is frankensteined.
Something that I keep seeing in survey responses but haven't really seen discussed in the media is how figurative and occasionally literal necromancy has become a load bearing GOP heuristic for everything. Voting is compromised by dead people on the rolls, welfare is compromised by dead people, etc.
November 26, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Something that I keep seeing in survey responses but haven't really seen discussed in the media is how figurative and occasionally literal necromancy has become a load bearing GOP heuristic for everything. Voting is compromised by dead people on the rolls, welfare is compromised by dead people, etc.
IMO this is sort of backwards, stereotypically the machines are/were very good at campaigning and very bad at 'good govt' type stuff (efficient services provision, minimal corruption, etc). Cuomo is better at running for office then running the govt, he's just not very good at either.
because he was such a pure machine politician Cuomo is also visibly bad at competitive campaigning other than by just purely appealing to bigotry.
November 4, 2025 at 5:25 PM
IMO this is sort of backwards, stereotypically the machines are/were very good at campaigning and very bad at 'good govt' type stuff (efficient services provision, minimal corruption, etc). Cuomo is better at running for office then running the govt, he's just not very good at either.
The really funny possibility here is that some future set of Trump admin or post-Trump actors rationalizes and lowers the tariffs but in a way that causes the effective rate and enforcement felt by consumers to go up. You could even name the legislation after a class of imported goods like Tea.
The data show Trump tariffs raising consumer prices by 0.6-0.7%.
Part of that is because Trump exempted many goods. But it was irresponsible to suggest, as Kamala Harris did, that a 10% tariff=a 10% sales tax on Americans. Tariffs are on wholesale prices. They were never going to cut that deep.
Part of that is because Trump exempted many goods. But it was irresponsible to suggest, as Kamala Harris did, that a 10% tariff=a 10% sales tax on Americans. Tariffs are on wholesale prices. They were never going to cut that deep.
How We Lost the Trade War
Tariff uncertainty may be waning, but the damage will persist
paulkrugman.substack.com
October 30, 2025 at 3:57 PM
The really funny possibility here is that some future set of Trump admin or post-Trump actors rationalizes and lowers the tariffs but in a way that causes the effective rate and enforcement felt by consumers to go up. You could even name the legislation after a class of imported goods like Tea.
At this point if I were running someone's campaign for anything more important than dog-catcher I would have a few of these non-scandals to leak to opposition media as an inoculation tactic. There is clearly jut no discernment about what to run with from outfits like the NY Post at all.
i cannot believe that “mamdani calls a close adult relative an ‘aunt’ even if they are not literally their parent’s sister” is what counts as a “scandal” these days
October 28, 2025 at 9:18 PM
At this point if I were running someone's campaign for anything more important than dog-catcher I would have a few of these non-scandals to leak to opposition media as an inoculation tactic. There is clearly jut no discernment about what to run with from outfits like the NY Post at all.
One of the weirder things about Sliwa is that he is an OG right wing paramilitary operative in ways that Trump is at least in theory trying to emulate with the current iteration of ICE and violent currents within MAGA but neither recognizes any kind of kinship with the other.
have bizarrely gotten a grudging respect for Curtis Sliwa, who is an insane person who talks like one of the Penguin's henchmen
October 20, 2025 at 3:16 PM
One of the weirder things about Sliwa is that he is an OG right wing paramilitary operative in ways that Trump is at least in theory trying to emulate with the current iteration of ICE and violent currents within MAGA but neither recognizes any kind of kinship with the other.
Everyone already implicitly believes the tax code should hose wealthy DINKs who rent bougie apartments. The potent distributional question right now is whether the tax code should favor working parents with young children trying to buy a home or their empty nester parents with paid off houses.
My most controversial take on this is probably that while I think reproductive freedom should be sacrosanct, I don’t really have any problem with additional taxes on (high income) childless people. Someone gotta pay into the pensions!
October 8, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Everyone already implicitly believes the tax code should hose wealthy DINKs who rent bougie apartments. The potent distributional question right now is whether the tax code should favor working parents with young children trying to buy a home or their empty nester parents with paid off houses.
A lot of people have argued that the filibuster will be the main casualty of this shutdown fight but there is an underrated possibility that the main casualty is the leverage/meaningfulness of the concept of a shutdown itself.
October 1, 2025 at 5:51 PM
A lot of people have argued that the filibuster will be the main casualty of this shutdown fight but there is an underrated possibility that the main casualty is the leverage/meaningfulness of the concept of a shutdown itself.
The thing that is really weird about the Trump admin is that it has been massively corrupt without either sucking all of the surplus capital out of the corporate economy or converging with the private sector on a profit maximizing governance strategy.
we're lucky - and I don't think this will necessarily hold - that the remarkable levels of political corruption in the United States have not yet produced a culture of *daily* low-level bribery. you don't have to give your surgeon a red envelope or pay off traffic cops*
September 22, 2025 at 2:45 PM
The thing that is really weird about the Trump admin is that it has been massively corrupt without either sucking all of the surplus capital out of the corporate economy or converging with the private sector on a profit maximizing governance strategy.
Reposted by Theo Landsman
Every news organization in every state can localize these findings from @adambonica.bsky.social, which 100% constitute elder abuse.
data4democracy.substack.com/p/spam-pacs-...
data4democracy.substack.com/p/spam-pacs-...
Spam PACs Raise Money by Deceiving Seniors
One 89-year-old woman made 7,532 donations totaling $68,666
data4democracy.substack.com
August 20, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Every news organization in every state can localize these findings from @adambonica.bsky.social, which 100% constitute elder abuse.
data4democracy.substack.com/p/spam-pacs-...
data4democracy.substack.com/p/spam-pacs-...
This is interesting, I still think their fundraising messages make them a bad actor but I read this as a de-facto acknowledgement that my theory that they are mostly a campaign finance end run for Democratic House Candidates is correct. medium.com/@motherships...
Setting the Record Straight: How Mothership Strategies Powers Progressive Change
We’ve raised $1.1 billion for Democrats. Here’s the truth about how progressive fundraising actually works — and why it matters.
medium.com
August 14, 2025 at 4:03 PM
This is interesting, I still think their fundraising messages make them a bad actor but I read this as a de-facto acknowledgement that my theory that they are mostly a campaign finance end run for Democratic House Candidates is correct. medium.com/@motherships...