Theo Landsman
@ordinalandsman.bsky.social
Senior Political Analyst at YouGov Blue, Political Science PhD candidate , Ranked Ballot Nerd, Map poster.
FWIW I basically agree with Yglesias here that what probably happened was 1) R's signaled that they were willing to cave to Trump on gutting the filibuster, 2) D's turned out to be bluffing that they would prefer a gutted filibuster to caving.
Sure, some wild-eyed leftists like [check notes] Nate Silver and Matt Yglesias think Democrats were winning the shutdown and shouldn't have caved....
November 10, 2025 at 5:19 PM
FWIW I basically agree with Yglesias here that what probably happened was 1) R's signaled that they were willing to cave to Trump on gutting the filibuster, 2) D's turned out to be bluffing that they would prefer a gutted filibuster to caving.
IMO this is sort of backwards, stereotypically the machines are/were very good at campaigning and very bad at 'good govt' type stuff (efficient services provision, minimal corruption, etc). Cuomo is better at running for office then running the govt, he's just not very good at either.
because he was such a pure machine politician Cuomo is also visibly bad at competitive campaigning other than by just purely appealing to bigotry.
November 4, 2025 at 5:25 PM
IMO this is sort of backwards, stereotypically the machines are/were very good at campaigning and very bad at 'good govt' type stuff (efficient services provision, minimal corruption, etc). Cuomo is better at running for office then running the govt, he's just not very good at either.
The really funny possibility here is that some future set of Trump admin or post-Trump actors rationalizes and lowers the tariffs but in a way that causes the effective rate and enforcement felt by consumers to go up. You could even name the legislation after a class of imported goods like Tea.
The data show Trump tariffs raising consumer prices by 0.6-0.7%.
Part of that is because Trump exempted many goods. But it was irresponsible to suggest, as Kamala Harris did, that a 10% tariff=a 10% sales tax on Americans. Tariffs are on wholesale prices. They were never going to cut that deep.
Part of that is because Trump exempted many goods. But it was irresponsible to suggest, as Kamala Harris did, that a 10% tariff=a 10% sales tax on Americans. Tariffs are on wholesale prices. They were never going to cut that deep.
How We Lost the Trade War
Tariff uncertainty may be waning, but the damage will persist
paulkrugman.substack.com
October 30, 2025 at 3:57 PM
The really funny possibility here is that some future set of Trump admin or post-Trump actors rationalizes and lowers the tariffs but in a way that causes the effective rate and enforcement felt by consumers to go up. You could even name the legislation after a class of imported goods like Tea.
At this point if I were running someone's campaign for anything more important than dog-catcher I would have a few of these non-scandals to leak to opposition media as an inoculation tactic. There is clearly jut no discernment about what to run with from outfits like the NY Post at all.
i cannot believe that “mamdani calls a close adult relative an ‘aunt’ even if they are not literally their parent’s sister” is what counts as a “scandal” these days
October 28, 2025 at 9:18 PM
At this point if I were running someone's campaign for anything more important than dog-catcher I would have a few of these non-scandals to leak to opposition media as an inoculation tactic. There is clearly jut no discernment about what to run with from outfits like the NY Post at all.
One of the weirder things about Sliwa is that he is an OG right wing paramilitary operative in ways that Trump is at least in theory trying to emulate with the current iteration of ICE and violent currents within MAGA but neither recognizes any kind of kinship with the other.
have bizarrely gotten a grudging respect for Curtis Sliwa, who is an insane person who talks like one of the Penguin's henchmen
October 20, 2025 at 3:16 PM
One of the weirder things about Sliwa is that he is an OG right wing paramilitary operative in ways that Trump is at least in theory trying to emulate with the current iteration of ICE and violent currents within MAGA but neither recognizes any kind of kinship with the other.
Everyone already implicitly believes the tax code should hose wealthy DINKs who rent bougie apartments. The potent distributional question right now is whether the tax code should favor working parents with young children trying to buy a home or their empty nester parents with paid off houses.
My most controversial take on this is probably that while I think reproductive freedom should be sacrosanct, I don’t really have any problem with additional taxes on (high income) childless people. Someone gotta pay into the pensions!
October 8, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Everyone already implicitly believes the tax code should hose wealthy DINKs who rent bougie apartments. The potent distributional question right now is whether the tax code should favor working parents with young children trying to buy a home or their empty nester parents with paid off houses.
A lot of people have argued that the filibuster will be the main casualty of this shutdown fight but there is an underrated possibility that the main casualty is the leverage/meaningfulness of the concept of a shutdown itself.
October 1, 2025 at 5:51 PM
A lot of people have argued that the filibuster will be the main casualty of this shutdown fight but there is an underrated possibility that the main casualty is the leverage/meaningfulness of the concept of a shutdown itself.
The thing that is really weird about the Trump admin is that it has been massively corrupt without either sucking all of the surplus capital out of the corporate economy or converging with the private sector on a profit maximizing governance strategy.
we're lucky - and I don't think this will necessarily hold - that the remarkable levels of political corruption in the United States have not yet produced a culture of *daily* low-level bribery. you don't have to give your surgeon a red envelope or pay off traffic cops*
September 22, 2025 at 2:45 PM
The thing that is really weird about the Trump admin is that it has been massively corrupt without either sucking all of the surplus capital out of the corporate economy or converging with the private sector on a profit maximizing governance strategy.
Reposted by Theo Landsman
Every news organization in every state can localize these findings from @adambonica.bsky.social, which 100% constitute elder abuse.
data4democracy.substack.com/p/spam-pacs-...
data4democracy.substack.com/p/spam-pacs-...
Spam PACs Raise Money by Deceiving Seniors
One 89-year-old woman made 7,532 donations totaling $68,666
data4democracy.substack.com
August 20, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Every news organization in every state can localize these findings from @adambonica.bsky.social, which 100% constitute elder abuse.
data4democracy.substack.com/p/spam-pacs-...
data4democracy.substack.com/p/spam-pacs-...
This is interesting, I still think their fundraising messages make them a bad actor but I read this as a de-facto acknowledgement that my theory that they are mostly a campaign finance end run for Democratic House Candidates is correct. medium.com/@motherships...
Setting the Record Straight: How Mothership Strategies Powers Progressive Change
We’ve raised $1.1 billion for Democrats. Here’s the truth about how progressive fundraising actually works — and why it matters.
medium.com
August 14, 2025 at 4:03 PM
This is interesting, I still think their fundraising messages make them a bad actor but I read this as a de-facto acknowledgement that my theory that they are mostly a campaign finance end run for Democratic House Candidates is correct. medium.com/@motherships...
One thing that feels underrated about 'Trump unleashes a nationwide mid-decade redistricting war' is how much of a middle finger it is to actually existing Congressional Republicans. All of their re-elections are about to get harder and a bunch of them may just straight up lose their jobs.
August 14, 2025 at 3:25 PM
One thing that feels underrated about 'Trump unleashes a nationwide mid-decade redistricting war' is how much of a middle finger it is to actually existing Congressional Republicans. All of their re-elections are about to get harder and a bunch of them may just straight up lose their jobs.
I hasn’t thought about it this way but seems pretty clear that with a little finessing you could get DC statehood AND move the U.S. closer to a national popular vote system.
I agree that DC statehood is a good idea and that it doesn't need an amendment, but it does mean thinking about the 23rd amendment. Reading it, though, can Congress can award those electors however they want like states can? Could they just say "the national popular vote winner gets 3 electors"?
Angry, self-righteous responses to this post on DC statehood insisting it needs an Amendment (nope) or a few red states would block it (can't).
Adding states to the union takes an act of Congress. A simple majority can legally do it (if it breaks or gets around a filibuster).
Excuses for weakness.
Adding states to the union takes an act of Congress. A simple majority can legally do it (if it breaks or gets around a filibuster).
Excuses for weakness.
August 11, 2025 at 4:24 PM
I hasn’t thought about it this way but seems pretty clear that with a little finessing you could get DC statehood AND move the U.S. closer to a national popular vote system.
Find something you love as much as Eric Adams loves committing campaign finance fraud. He's got billionaires fawning over him and still doing it purely for the thrill.
"All the donations were for the maximum amount allowed — $2,100 — and all were paid by credit card. Many of the donors contacted by THE CITY do not speak English, but their donations were made through the city’s online donation system, contribute.nycvotes.org, which is posted in English only."
New Eric Adams ‘Donors’ Say They Never Gave to His Reelection Campaign
The campaign sought public matching funds from donors who insist they didn’t donate, just weeks after a judge dropped his corruption case.
www.thecity.nyc
July 24, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Find something you love as much as Eric Adams loves committing campaign finance fraud. He's got billionaires fawning over him and still doing it purely for the thrill.
[Nodding, more nodding, taking a few notes]: 'Is Zohran Mamdani in the room with us right now?'
Bari Weiss's website is so psychotic lol
www.thefp.com/p/tgif-were-...
www.thefp.com/p/tgif-were-...
July 16, 2025 at 6:03 PM
[Nodding, more nodding, taking a few notes]: 'Is Zohran Mamdani in the room with us right now?'
I think there is a way to do this that would be helpful but you would need to be really careful about how you did it. Essentially trying to shape the next generation of conservatives into people with some basic respect for small-d democracy.
Exclusive: Harvard leaders have discussed creating a center for conservative scholarship as the school fights the Trump administration’s accusations that it is too liberal.
Harvard Explores New Center for Conservative Scholarship Amid Trump Attacks
The Ivy League school has discussed an effort to ‘support viewpoint diversity’ with potential donors. Harvard says the initiative ‘will not be partisan.’
on.wsj.com
July 11, 2025 at 2:29 PM
I think there is a way to do this that would be helpful but you would need to be really careful about how you did it. Essentially trying to shape the next generation of conservatives into people with some basic respect for small-d democracy.
Reposted by Theo Landsman
Just finished up an internal tracker (this is from YG Blue, not our daily news team) and voter awareness of the contents of BBB remains pretty bad. Barely half know about the Medicaid impact and it falls below half for voters who aren't currently paying super close attention to politics.
July 3, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Just finished up an internal tracker (this is from YG Blue, not our daily news team) and voter awareness of the contents of BBB remains pretty bad. Barely half know about the Medicaid impact and it falls below half for voters who aren't currently paying super close attention to politics.
'What Republicans say they want to do is so bad, there's no way they'll do it' are these people huffing gas? Do they have object permanence?
July 3, 2025 at 3:07 PM
'What Republicans say they want to do is so bad, there's no way they'll do it' are these people huffing gas? Do they have object permanence?
Zohran should do a video where he's admonished by Brad Lander as Tim Robinson, Tim Robinson as Brad Lander, and Patti Harrison as her sketch character for his flagrant disrespect for tables and makes a public apology.
July 1, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Zohran should do a video where he's admonished by Brad Lander as Tim Robinson, Tim Robinson as Brad Lander, and Patti Harrison as her sketch character for his flagrant disrespect for tables and makes a public apology.
Not really the point but how does dragging college property from one location owned by the college to another location owned by the college demonstrate a casual attitude towards private property?
The bar is high, but I think this is the dumbest anti-Zohran argument I've read so far www.nationalreview.com/2025/06/is-z...
June 30, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Not really the point but how does dragging college property from one location owned by the college to another location owned by the college demonstrate a casual attitude towards private property?
Some really interesting 'what is it like to campaign under RCV' perspective from Lander here: hellgatenyc.com/brad-lander-...
![I went into the cross-endorsement with, let's say, gritted teeth, because, it was just like, I don't want Andrew Cuomo to be elected, right? And therefore we should do this thing to add up our votes. But having stepped into it, it generated a response of gratitude and hopefulness that the government could be something less selfish, and having that reflected back helped. It helped me feel better about doing it. And then this [he gestures toward the immigration courthouse where he has been escorting people from their hearings and witnessing them be abducted by ICE]. This is just genuine outrage. Like, both outraged and depressed about what's happening here. This is a separate thing from the campaign.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:5gqaspgnlzwzaupbfosu74hf/bafkreifhmuhghoofhm7yhtb7zz5zor3ummutqequhcvtzkcmvhsohhuug4@jpeg)
June 29, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Some really interesting 'what is it like to campaign under RCV' perspective from Lander here: hellgatenyc.com/brad-lander-...
I was an early proponent of this take but I am starting to think the truth is more complicated. I think what's true is that we've gone from a very badly run/institutionalized Democracy to a catastrophically run oligarchy and that produces both disadvantages and advantages.
anyways public support is super important for authoritarians and trump does not have it. things will get bad and worse before they get better but we are not witnessing the consolidation of a thousand year reich
June 27, 2025 at 6:18 PM
I was an early proponent of this take but I am starting to think the truth is more complicated. I think what's true is that we've gone from a very badly run/institutionalized Democracy to a catastrophically run oligarchy and that produces both disadvantages and advantages.
What's wild is that you can literally see a 'Commie Corridor' with more Mamdani supporters in it (Running through Park Slope and Prospect/Crown Heights instead of being discontiguous) on this map. I guess they didn't want to slander the Crown Heights Hasidic community.
Just the NYT calling the areas where Mamdani most won votes - "The Commie Corner"
June 26, 2025 at 2:53 PM
What's wild is that you can literally see a 'Commie Corridor' with more Mamdani supporters in it (Running through Park Slope and Prospect/Crown Heights instead of being discontiguous) on this map. I guess they didn't want to slander the Crown Heights Hasidic community.
I think the honest truth about Mayor of NYC as explicitly demonstrated by the De Blasio -> Adams transition is that there's both much less good and much less damage that they can do then people think, so having someone in the office who wants good things and is willing to take big risks is valuable.
I probably shouldn’t say this because it’s not cool to rain on parades but if Mamdani becomes mayor, I think we’ll all be disappointed. Both because NYC is ungovernable and…
Oh they will. The City is living under an ancient curse that dooms it to terrible mayors.
June 26, 2025 at 1:56 PM
I think the honest truth about Mayor of NYC as explicitly demonstrated by the De Blasio -> Adams transition is that there's both much less good and much less damage that they can do then people think, so having someone in the office who wants good things and is willing to take big risks is valuable.
The article doesn't even really make the claim that the title does but the failure of democracy in New York is very clearly that despite nearly a decade of reform New York democracy is still so bad that Cuomo may be inevitable, not that Mamdani may have a shot: www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
New York Is Not a Democracy
Could ranked-choice voting help Zohran Mamdani beat Andrew Cuomo?
www.theatlantic.com
June 16, 2025 at 3:28 PM
The article doesn't even really make the claim that the title does but the failure of democracy in New York is very clearly that despite nearly a decade of reform New York democracy is still so bad that Cuomo may be inevitable, not that Mamdani may have a shot: www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
Has a Star Wars property ever made meaningful use of Alderaan as a setting? Kind of wild that they seem so averse to it.
May 14, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Has a Star Wars property ever made meaningful use of Alderaan as a setting? Kind of wild that they seem so averse to it.