Oliver Meier
@olivermeier.bsky.social
Policy and Research Director at the European Leadership Network @theeln.bsky.social, based in Berlin.
WMD elimination through arms control, disarmament, nonproliferation.
Personal views only.
WMD elimination through arms control, disarmament, nonproliferation.
Personal views only.
Really good analysis by @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social of current situation in Iran protests and why this round of protests matters: is.gd/qiZRxT
Why This Round of Protests in Iran Matters
Economic Breakdown, Political Fragmentation, and the Islamic Republic's Narrowing Options
is.gd
January 10, 2026 at 6:04 PM
Really good analysis by @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social of current situation in Iran protests and why this round of protests matters: is.gd/qiZRxT
Reposted by Oliver Meier
For #Russia, the week began with the ouster of #Maduro in #Venezuela.
Now, intensifying protests engulf its partner #Iran.
Another instance in which an impotent Russia must largely watch things play out from the sidelines - and potentially see its global power erode 🧵
Now, intensifying protests engulf its partner #Iran.
Another instance in which an impotent Russia must largely watch things play out from the sidelines - and potentially see its global power erode 🧵
January 9, 2026 at 10:00 AM
For #Russia, the week began with the ouster of #Maduro in #Venezuela.
Now, intensifying protests engulf its partner #Iran.
Another instance in which an impotent Russia must largely watch things play out from the sidelines - and potentially see its global power erode 🧵
Now, intensifying protests engulf its partner #Iran.
Another instance in which an impotent Russia must largely watch things play out from the sidelines - and potentially see its global power erode 🧵
Which is exactly what #OPCW has been been doing, despite Chinese and Russian opposition and resistance against a stronger investigation mandate, for more than ten years now. 🤦
... Investigations on alleged use of chemical weapons must be conducted in compliance with proper procedures, supported by reliable evidences, and lead to credible conclusions," said Sun.
[...]
[...]
January 9, 2026 at 3:56 PM
Which is exactly what #OPCW has been been doing, despite Chinese and Russian opposition and resistance against a stronger investigation mandate, for more than ten years now. 🤦
#Shortsightedpolicies: "EU leaders have demonstrated that violations of international law and multilateral trust are way below bar for confronting Trump administration. Only a direct threat to invade European territory in Greenland has stirred Europe’s leaders to respond." www.politico.eu?p=7733940
Europe’s leaders watch silently as Trump torches UN climate treaty
Beset by crisis in Ukraine and Greenland, leaders let the U.S. withdrawal from the world’s most important climate body pass with barely a mention.
www.politico.eu
January 9, 2026 at 8:34 AM
#Shortsightedpolicies: "EU leaders have demonstrated that violations of international law and multilateral trust are way below bar for confronting Trump administration. Only a direct threat to invade European territory in Greenland has stirred Europe’s leaders to respond." www.politico.eu?p=7733940
Reposted by Oliver Meier
Read this @theeln.bsky.social Commentary if you are concerned about demise of humanitarian arms control. 👇‼️
As Gary Toombs @hiuk.bsky.social writes: "Abandoning #APMBC would legitimise view that humanitarian norms are negotiable under pressure. If one treaty falls, others ... may also be weakened."
As Gary Toombs @hiuk.bsky.social writes: "Abandoning #APMBC would legitimise view that humanitarian norms are negotiable under pressure. If one treaty falls, others ... may also be weakened."
On Saturday, 10 January, Finland’s withdrawal from the Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention or ‘Ottawa Treaty’, will come into effect. This follows the earlier withdrawals of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia.
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/w...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/w...
Why states should remain in the Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention: humanitarian and security imperatives
On Saturday, 10 January, Finland’s withdrawal from the Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention or 'Ottawa Treaty', will come into effect. This follows the earlier withdrawals of Estonia, Lithuania, and Lat...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
January 8, 2026 at 6:10 PM
Read this @theeln.bsky.social Commentary if you are concerned about demise of humanitarian arms control. 👇‼️
As Gary Toombs @hiuk.bsky.social writes: "Abandoning #APMBC would legitimise view that humanitarian norms are negotiable under pressure. If one treaty falls, others ... may also be weakened."
As Gary Toombs @hiuk.bsky.social writes: "Abandoning #APMBC would legitimise view that humanitarian norms are negotiable under pressure. If one treaty falls, others ... may also be weakened."
Reposted by Oliver Meier
As the year begins, ELN network members look ahead to the defining issues of 2026, from geopolitics and arms control to emerging policy challenges such as AI, read some of the thoughtful reflections from across our network 👉 https://ow.ly/Zilv50XSRFg
Network Reflections: What to watch in 2026
At the start of the new year, members of the European Leadership Network’s senior and younger-generation leaders’ networks offer their perspectives on their defining issue or policy trend to watch in 2026.
ow.ly
January 7, 2026 at 11:45 AM
As the year begins, ELN network members look ahead to the defining issues of 2026, from geopolitics and arms control to emerging policy challenges such as AI, read some of the thoughtful reflections from across our network 👉 https://ow.ly/Zilv50XSRFg
Not sure this is a threat that matters to Trump. www.politico.eu?p=7718286
NATO is done if Trump invades Greenland, Danish PM warns
“Everything stops” if the U.S. annexes the Arctic island, Mette Frederiksen said.
www.politico.eu
January 5, 2026 at 5:57 PM
Not sure this is a threat that matters to Trump. www.politico.eu?p=7718286
Reposted by Oliver Meier
Today in 1958, Charles Schulz’s “Peanuts” cartoon strip addressed a subject on the minds of many Americans.
Ten months later, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union entered into a mutual moratorium on nuclear testing as they endeavored to negotiate an end to all such tests.
Ten months later, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union entered into a mutual moratorium on nuclear testing as they endeavored to negotiate an end to all such tests.
January 5, 2026 at 5:23 PM
Today in 1958, Charles Schulz’s “Peanuts” cartoon strip addressed a subject on the minds of many Americans.
Ten months later, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union entered into a mutual moratorium on nuclear testing as they endeavored to negotiate an end to all such tests.
Ten months later, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union entered into a mutual moratorium on nuclear testing as they endeavored to negotiate an end to all such tests.
Reposted by Oliver Meier
👇‼️
We're hiring!
We are seeking an Early Career Policy Fellow to work on Nuclear Deterrence, Behavioural Bias, and UK Nuclear Policy.
UK-based remote
Fixed Term Contract: 18 months, 37.5 hours per week
£43,334.54
Apply by 9th January 2026
Details below ⤵️
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/job/early-ca...
We are seeking an Early Career Policy Fellow to work on Nuclear Deterrence, Behavioural Bias, and UK Nuclear Policy.
UK-based remote
Fixed Term Contract: 18 months, 37.5 hours per week
£43,334.54
Apply by 9th January 2026
Details below ⤵️
europeanleadershipnetwork.org/job/early-ca...
Early Career Policy Fellow – Nuclear Deterrence, Behavioural Bias & UK Nuclear Policy
Purpose of Role:
The European Leadership Network (ELN) is seeking to appoint an early-career Policy Fellow to join two new research and engagement projects examining nuclear deterrence through...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
December 17, 2025 at 5:08 PM
👇‼️
Reposted by Oliver Meier
In response to repeated threats from the Trump regime, the Danish government yesterday issued the following statement.
US and Danish adversaries must be having a party. Trump is doing their work for them.
The original statement in Danish is here: stm.dk/presse/press...
US and Danish adversaries must be having a party. Trump is doing their work for them.
The original statement in Danish is here: stm.dk/presse/press...
January 5, 2026 at 12:22 PM
In response to repeated threats from the Trump regime, the Danish government yesterday issued the following statement.
US and Danish adversaries must be having a party. Trump is doing their work for them.
The original statement in Danish is here: stm.dk/presse/press...
US and Danish adversaries must be having a party. Trump is doing their work for them.
The original statement in Danish is here: stm.dk/presse/press...
Reposted by Oliver Meier
Was genau ist jetzt der europäische Plan für Grönland?
January 3, 2026 at 6:06 PM
Was genau ist jetzt der europäische Plan für Grönland?
It's official: US Foreign Policy clock moves back 200 years, to the Monroe doctrine of 1823. Congratulations.
January 3, 2026 at 5:02 PM
It's official: US Foreign Policy clock moves back 200 years, to the Monroe doctrine of 1823. Congratulations.
Reposted by Oliver Meier
Trump just announces the US will be running Venezuela now, until the can do a "safe, proper, and judicious" transfer of power. Announcing an occupation before you've occupied a country is a new one.
January 3, 2026 at 4:45 PM
Trump just announces the US will be running Venezuela now, until the can do a "safe, proper, and judicious" transfer of power. Announcing an occupation before you've occupied a country is a new one.
Because that worked so well in Iraq? “We are going to run the country,” Trump said of Venezuela. He said he did not want the Maduro regime to continue with another leader. 🤷♂️
is.gd/SDyTS0
is.gd/SDyTS0
is.gd
January 3, 2026 at 4:48 PM
Because that worked so well in Iraq? “We are going to run the country,” Trump said of Venezuela. He said he did not want the Maduro regime to continue with another leader. 🤷♂️
is.gd/SDyTS0
is.gd/SDyTS0
Embarrassing.
I have spoken with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and our Ambassador in Caracas. The EU is closely monitoring the situation in Venezuela.
The EU has repeatedly stated that Mr Maduro lacks legitimacy and has defended a peaceful transition. (1/2)
The EU has repeatedly stated that Mr Maduro lacks legitimacy and has defended a peaceful transition. (1/2)
January 3, 2026 at 3:07 PM
Embarrassing.
ICYMI (like me): New UK-France Nuclear Steering Group met for the first time in Paris
is.gd/cuzAob
is.gd/cuzAob
New UK-France Nuclear Steering Group met for the first time in Paris.
Read the joint press release.
is.gd
January 1, 2026 at 7:06 PM
ICYMI (like me): New UK-France Nuclear Steering Group met for the first time in Paris
is.gd/cuzAob
is.gd/cuzAob
Important and disturbing study by J. Friedman: "National security officials’ intuitions for assessing uncertainty are prone to false positives. There may be a shared cognitive foundation for mutual optimism in war, threat inflation, and overrating probability of changes to status quo." is.gd/7OssfE
The World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials - Texas National Security Review
This article analyzes more than 60,000 assessments of uncertainty made by national security officials from more than forty NATO allies and partners. The findings show that national security officials ...
is.gd
January 1, 2026 at 6:21 PM
Important and disturbing study by J. Friedman: "National security officials’ intuitions for assessing uncertainty are prone to false positives. There may be a shared cognitive foundation for mutual optimism in war, threat inflation, and overrating probability of changes to status quo." is.gd/7OssfE
Reposted by Oliver Meier
This is an act of war and illegal under both US and international law, let’s just be clear about that:
C.I.A. Conducted Drone Strike on Port in Venezuela
www.nytimes.com
December 30, 2025 at 7:52 AM
This is an act of war and illegal under both US and international law, let’s just be clear about that:
Reposted by Oliver Meier
Belarus claims the Russian-made "Oreshnik" missile system is now on combat duty and has released footage to confirm its deployment.
December 30, 2025 at 8:06 AM
Belarus claims the Russian-made "Oreshnik" missile system is now on combat duty and has released footage to confirm its deployment.
Reposted by Oliver Meier
Reuters report that Putin has signed a law that officially allows Russia to ignore rulings of foreign and international courts.
www.reuters.com/world/putin-...
www.reuters.com/world/putin-...
December 29, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Reuters report that Putin has signed a law that officially allows Russia to ignore rulings of foreign and international courts.
www.reuters.com/world/putin-...
www.reuters.com/world/putin-...
7/7 For more good thinking on how to protect the NPT, visit @theeln.bsky.social project website europeanleadershipnetwork.org?p=19759
Protecting the Non-Proliferation Treaty
Why?
International structures are resilient but not indestructible. The multilateral arms control regime is facing challenges and setbacks and requires investment. In 2018, US President Trump...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
December 29, 2025 at 6:22 PM
7/7 For more good thinking on how to protect the NPT, visit @theeln.bsky.social project website europeanleadershipnetwork.org?p=19759
6/ Bottom-line: Early agreement on detailed joint position is an opportunity for EU to shape outcome of #NPTRevCon2026. EU speaks to China, Russia challenges - but fails to address likely scenario of Trump administration acting as spoiler in New York.
Protecting the Non-Proliferation Treaty
Why?
International structures are resilient but not indestructible. The multilateral arms control regime is facing challenges and setbacks and requires investment. In 2018, US President Trump...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
December 29, 2025 at 6:22 PM
6/ Bottom-line: Early agreement on detailed joint position is an opportunity for EU to shape outcome of #NPTRevCon2026. EU speaks to China, Russia challenges - but fails to address likely scenario of Trump administration acting as spoiler in New York.
5/ Nuclear risk reduction: Good new language on emerging technologies and #NPT. EU endorses P3 commitment to "maintain human control and involvement for all actions critical to informing and executing sovereign decisions concerning nuclear weapons employment". thebulletin.org?p=128146
Lessons from the UN’s first resolution on AI in nuclear command and control
In November, the General Assembly’s First Committee, adopted a resolution that looks at the risks of integrating AI into nuclear weapons.
thebulletin.org
December 29, 2025 at 6:22 PM
5/ Nuclear risk reduction: Good new language on emerging technologies and #NPT. EU endorses P3 commitment to "maintain human control and involvement for all actions critical to informing and executing sovereign decisions concerning nuclear weapons employment". thebulletin.org?p=128146
4/ #CTBT: EU calls on all states "to refrain from any action contrary to the object and purpose" of test ban (including hydronuclear testing?!), calls on Russia to re-ratify CTBT - but shies away from calling out Trump's loose talk about new nuclear tests. europeanleadershipnetwork.org?p=24829
Network reflections: Nuclear testing signals and European responses
Following recent signals between the US and Russia over the possibility of renewed nuclear testing, we asked members to reflect on what this could mean for the broader global non-proliferation and arm...
europeanleadershipnetwork.org
December 29, 2025 at 6:22 PM
4/ #CTBT: EU calls on all states "to refrain from any action contrary to the object and purpose" of test ban (including hydronuclear testing?!), calls on Russia to re-ratify CTBT - but shies away from calling out Trump's loose talk about new nuclear tests. europeanleadershipnetwork.org?p=24829