Jason Smith
@newqueuelure.bsky.social
physicist messing around with economic theory and science fiction; he/him; ALX; was @infotranecon on twitter; email is this profile's username @ gmail
bsky DMs open
econ: https://information-equilibrium.ghost.io/
sci fi: https://innerhorizon.substack.com
bsky DMs open
econ: https://information-equilibrium.ghost.io/
sci fi: https://innerhorizon.substack.com
Pinned
Jason Smith
@newqueuelure.bsky.social
· Feb 23
thread of charts i put up on twitter in 2020 about how i think about "intelligence", why IQ is silly, and why we need a social safety net
let's start: we're born with a neural network that seeks input and has a few innate specialized subnets for things we evolved to do like speak or recognize faces
let's start: we're born with a neural network that seeks input and has a few innate specialized subnets for things we evolved to do like speak or recognize faces
spent like 20 minutes trying to turn the vergence in the force dialog from the phantom menace into a thing about a financial bubble located around elon musk but then realized i am just so very, very tired of this shit
November 11, 2025 at 12:54 PM
spent like 20 minutes trying to turn the vergence in the force dialog from the phantom menace into a thing about a financial bubble located around elon musk but then realized i am just so very, very tired of this shit
pretty sure "satoshi nakamoto" invented the world's first organized crime index
November 10, 2025 at 1:38 PM
pretty sure "satoshi nakamoto" invented the world's first organized crime index
"Tesla Stock Rises as Cybertruck Leader Exits. What It Means for the EV Maker."
that's just not what those words ontologically map to
that's just not what those words ontologically map to
“.. Cybertruck sales in the third quarter .. a 63% year-over-year decrease, with year-to-date sales down 38%.”
@barrons.com $TSLA
www.barrons.com/articles/tes...
@barrons.com $TSLA
www.barrons.com/articles/tes...
November 10, 2025 at 1:23 PM
"Tesla Stock Rises as Cybertruck Leader Exits. What It Means for the EV Maker."
that's just not what those words ontologically map to
that's just not what those words ontologically map to
schumer being the vector for murc's law here
MSNBC reported Schumer's office felt that the longer that shutdown went on, the more likely it was that people would start to blame the Dems.
My kingdom for Democrats that don't govern out of fear. I've said it before and I'll say it again: The American people are far braver than their reps.
My kingdom for Democrats that don't govern out of fear. I've said it before and I'll say it again: The American people are far braver than their reps.
November 10, 2025 at 1:15 PM
schumer being the vector for murc's law here
European historical period definitions:
• Middle Ages: no guns
• Renaissance: some guns
• Modern Period: all the guns
• Middle Ages: no guns
• Renaissance: some guns
• Modern Period: all the guns
I always forget that henry the 8th had a gun. it's like giving pippin from lord of the rings a gun.
November 10, 2025 at 12:17 PM
European historical period definitions:
• Middle Ages: no guns
• Renaissance: some guns
• Modern Period: all the guns
• Middle Ages: no guns
• Renaissance: some guns
• Modern Period: all the guns
was curious to see what this looked like on a log plot alongside some benchmarks; TSLA market cap has been roughly tracking equilibrium NGDP growth in the 2020s; the low path is ~ typical stock market equilibrium growth or ~3x NGDP; the high path is ~20x NGDP
November 9, 2025 at 4:22 PM
was curious to see what this looked like on a log plot alongside some benchmarks; TSLA market cap has been roughly tracking equilibrium NGDP growth in the 2020s; the low path is ~ typical stock market equilibrium growth or ~3x NGDP; the high path is ~20x NGDP
I mean it’s not optimal but would support a tariff-funded universal basic income plan. Second best.
November 9, 2025 at 2:38 PM
I mean it’s not optimal but would support a tariff-funded universal basic income plan. Second best.
There are no observables given by imaginary numbers.
Not to say that they don’t help simplify representations or calculations, but like Grassman numbers or matrices they always should be seen as a tool for “nomology” not as ontology.
Not to say that they don’t help simplify representations or calculations, but like Grassman numbers or matrices they always should be seen as a tool for “nomology” not as ontology.
it is baffling that there are physicists who deny that there are physical values best represented by imaginary numbers
www.quantamagazine.org/physicists-t...
www.quantamagazine.org/physicists-t...
Physicists Take the Imaginary Numbers Out of Quantum Mechanics | Quanta Magazine
Quantum mechanics has at last been formulated exclusively with real numbers, bringing a mathematical puzzle at the heart of the theory into a new era of inquiry.
www.quantamagazine.org
November 8, 2025 at 4:21 AM
There are no observables given by imaginary numbers.
Not to say that they don’t help simplify representations or calculations, but like Grassman numbers or matrices they always should be seen as a tool for “nomology” not as ontology.
Not to say that they don’t help simplify representations or calculations, but like Grassman numbers or matrices they always should be seen as a tool for “nomology” not as ontology.
tl cleanse; freshly groomed hobi with a little scarf
November 7, 2025 at 10:43 PM
tl cleanse; freshly groomed hobi with a little scarf
one of my senators from before my move to ALX is denying the existence of murc's law; hope it sticks
I am giving Republicans every opportunity in the world to DO THE RIGHT THING and work with Democrats to save the health care tax credits.
But Republicans have agency. I can’t force them to save health care for their own constituents.
But Republicans have agency. I can’t force them to save health care for their own constituents.
November 7, 2025 at 10:30 PM
one of my senators from before my move to ALX is denying the existence of murc's law; hope it sticks
i'm losing track of what's a crypto fascist conspiracy theory and what's dementia
"In June 2020, John Bolton, National Security advisor at the time, published in a book that Trump said that invading Venezuela would be "cool" because It is "really part of the United States."
the problem with this framing, each and every time, is that you are presuming a form of restraint and control that is largely absent from the entire history of American foreign intervention. In the few instances where it did occur, e.g. Libya, you still then must ignore its immediate consequences.
November 7, 2025 at 10:25 PM
i'm losing track of what's a crypto fascist conspiracy theory and what's dementia
this looks like those heritage foundation deficit projections
“To reach $1tn, he must sextuple Tesla's valuation to $8.5tn, boost earnings 24-fold to $400bn and sell millions of robots and autonomous driving subscriptions. Over the 10 years the plan covers, Musk will receive no salary or bonus.”
Truly insane and I’m sure this will go well.
on.ft.com/3WLGcDp
Truly insane and I’m sure this will go well.
on.ft.com/3WLGcDp
November 7, 2025 at 12:19 PM
this looks like those heritage foundation deficit projections
This is just funny given Republican views on gerrymandering in most other states. Total hypocrisy.
But wouldn’t put it past SCOTUS to go all in on hypocrisy and say Prop 50 is unconstitutional.
But wouldn’t put it past SCOTUS to go all in on hypocrisy and say Prop 50 is unconstitutional.
November 7, 2025 at 11:48 AM
This is just funny given Republican views on gerrymandering in most other states. Total hypocrisy.
But wouldn’t put it past SCOTUS to go all in on hypocrisy and say Prop 50 is unconstitutional.
But wouldn’t put it past SCOTUS to go all in on hypocrisy and say Prop 50 is unconstitutional.
are we allowed to post animations yet?
November 6, 2025 at 9:57 PM
are we allowed to post animations yet?
noticed the stock market-labor market correlation was a kind of "second order" effect after subtracting the log-linear equilibrium in US data; the divergence would likely be due to "first order" non-equilibrium shocks to either stocks or labor (or both) ... and appear not localized to the US
November 5, 2025 at 2:28 PM
noticed the stock market-labor market correlation was a kind of "second order" effect after subtracting the log-linear equilibrium in US data; the divergence would likely be due to "first order" non-equilibrium shocks to either stocks or labor (or both) ... and appear not localized to the US
The implicit assumption is that there is no economically-relevant scale for time T that would allow you to compare
Stock
vs
Flow*T
Stock
vs
Flow*T
STOCKS ARE NOT FLOWS! AHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!
a man in a suit and tie is making a face
ALT: a man in a suit and tie is making a face
media.tenor.com
November 4, 2025 at 5:41 PM
The implicit assumption is that there is no economically-relevant scale for time T that would allow you to compare
Stock
vs
Flow*T
Stock
vs
Flow*T
while it isn't as big, not travelling for thanksgiving could also make an impact (plus not sure i'd want to get on a plane with the shutdown-induced air traffic controller shortage)
a general strike isn't happening in the US but a real war on christmas could make an impact—even just not buying stuff for christmas from major e-commerce sites
cutting these Q4 spikes in half is −30 billion dollars; plus it's not like the people who benefit from them are helping
cutting these Q4 spikes in half is −30 billion dollars; plus it's not like the people who benefit from them are helping
![Units: Millions of Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency: Quarterly
Notes:
E-commerce sales are sales of goods and services where the buyer places an order, or the price and terms of the sale are negotiated over an Internet, mobile device (M-commerce), extranet, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) network, electronic mail, or other comparable online system. Payment may or may not be made online.
Suggested Citation:
U.S. Census Bureau, E-Commerce Retail Sales [ECOMNSA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECOMNSA](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:4k6bgozumoj743oo5fkiro4i/bafkreidnjklxr353ul3qetcvukbucpjdkmqguvz3ydrwddyrfwx5za3diy@jpeg)
November 3, 2025 at 12:56 PM
while it isn't as big, not travelling for thanksgiving could also make an impact (plus not sure i'd want to get on a plane with the shutdown-induced air traffic controller shortage)
Reposted by Jason Smith
a general strike isn't happening in the US but a real war on christmas could make an impact—even just not buying stuff for christmas from major e-commerce sites
cutting these Q4 spikes in half is −30 billion dollars; plus it's not like the people who benefit from them are helping
cutting these Q4 spikes in half is −30 billion dollars; plus it's not like the people who benefit from them are helping
October 3, 2025 at 5:43 PM
a general strike isn't happening in the US but a real war on christmas could make an impact—even just not buying stuff for christmas from major e-commerce sites
cutting these Q4 spikes in half is −30 billion dollars; plus it's not like the people who benefit from them are helping
cutting these Q4 spikes in half is −30 billion dollars; plus it's not like the people who benefit from them are helping
kinda funny that the tofurkey is the least expensive option on this chart when it is the most expensive per pound
ham: $2/lb
turkey*: $4/lb
tofurkey: $6/lb
ham: $2/lb
turkey*: $4/lb
tofurkey: $6/lb
November 3, 2025 at 12:44 PM
kinda funny that the tofurkey is the least expensive option on this chart when it is the most expensive per pound
ham: $2/lb
turkey*: $4/lb
tofurkey: $6/lb
ham: $2/lb
turkey*: $4/lb
tofurkey: $6/lb
this sounds like pundit or consultant galaxy-brain media contagion because it assumes US voters manifest an absurd level of strategy when they rarely show awareness of policy or even their own self-interest
Crazy how much some media has normalized the idea that voters are taking a risk if they elect governors/mayors who will defy Trump. That he’ll threaten their funding, etc.
Try to imagine, say. Greg Abbott being asked if he’s worried that Biden will punish Texas over his lawsuits.
Try to imagine, say. Greg Abbott being asked if he’s worried that Biden will punish Texas over his lawsuits.
November 3, 2025 at 12:35 PM
this sounds like pundit or consultant galaxy-brain media contagion because it assumes US voters manifest an absurd level of strategy when they rarely show awareness of policy or even their own self-interest
actually kinda like that there are still clocks in my apartment i have to adjust. the worst would be society messing with my sense of time by an hour and it happening quietly in the background.
how many hours did you take?
"sorry the year is now 2050 and you're being forced into retirement."
how many hours did you take?
"sorry the year is now 2050 and you're being forced into retirement."
November 2, 2025 at 10:49 PM
actually kinda like that there are still clocks in my apartment i have to adjust. the worst would be society messing with my sense of time by an hour and it happening quietly in the background.
how many hours did you take?
"sorry the year is now 2050 and you're being forced into retirement."
how many hours did you take?
"sorry the year is now 2050 and you're being forced into retirement."
This is just evil.
The USDA sent an email to grocery stores telling them they are prohibited from offering special discounts to customers affected by the SNAP funding lapse.
I'm aware of at least 2 stores that had offered struggling customers a discount, then withdrew it after receiving this email
I'm aware of at least 2 stores that had offered struggling customers a discount, then withdrew it after receiving this email
November 2, 2025 at 7:31 PM
This is just evil.
ICYMI
Overselling approaches as solutions is far less interesting than engaging with the problems those approaches highlight
November 2, 2025 at 3:12 PM
ICYMI