Muhammed Bulutay
@mvbulutay.bsky.social
Postdoc at Heidelberg University.
I am a behavioral economist who works on topics related to information and expectations, using experimental methods.
https://www.muhammedbulutay.com/
I am a behavioral economist who works on topics related to information and expectations, using experimental methods.
https://www.muhammedbulutay.com/
Pinned
Muhammed Bulutay
@mvbulutay.bsky.social
· Apr 24
🚨New paper🚨
Classic rational inattention says people weigh costs vs. benefits when processing info.
We show that overprecision biases this evaluation — leading to misallocated attention.
📄 Theory + experiment
(link in last post)
#econsky @boschrosa.bsky.social
Classic rational inattention says people weigh costs vs. benefits when processing info.
We show that overprecision biases this evaluation — leading to misallocated attention.
📄 Theory + experiment
(link in last post)
#econsky @boschrosa.bsky.social
Princeton University Press books are discounted by 50%.
I'd say that's a great deal!
press.princeton.edu?cq_src=googl...
I'd say that's a great deal!
press.princeton.edu?cq_src=googl...
Homepage
Princeton University Press is a nonprofit publisher with close connections to Princeton University.
press.princeton.edu
May 31, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Princeton University Press books are discounted by 50%.
I'd say that's a great deal!
press.princeton.edu?cq_src=googl...
I'd say that's a great deal!
press.princeton.edu?cq_src=googl...
Got to read!
Immigrants increase innovation and economic growth [full stop]
May 29, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Got to read!
Come and listen to me talk about my work on what consumers think about central bank inflation forecasts and how that affects inflation expectations and trust at the "Theories and Methods in Macroeconomics" Conference.
There are many other interesting projects too!
www.t2m.network/2025/program/
There are many other interesting projects too!
www.t2m.network/2025/program/
Program 2025
www.t2m.network
May 20, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Come and listen to me talk about my work on what consumers think about central bank inflation forecasts and how that affects inflation expectations and trust at the "Theories and Methods in Macroeconomics" Conference.
There are many other interesting projects too!
www.t2m.network/2025/program/
There are many other interesting projects too!
www.t2m.network/2025/program/
Reposted by Muhammed Bulutay
Thanks to everybody who chimed in!
I arrived at the conclusion that (1) there's a lot of interesting stuff about interactions and (2) the figure I was looking for does not exist.
So, I made it myself! Here's a simple illustration of how to control for confounding in interactions:>
I arrived at the conclusion that (1) there's a lot of interesting stuff about interactions and (2) the figure I was looking for does not exist.
So, I made it myself! Here's a simple illustration of how to control for confounding in interactions:>
May 11, 2025 at 5:34 AM
Thanks to everybody who chimed in!
I arrived at the conclusion that (1) there's a lot of interesting stuff about interactions and (2) the figure I was looking for does not exist.
So, I made it myself! Here's a simple illustration of how to control for confounding in interactions:>
I arrived at the conclusion that (1) there's a lot of interesting stuff about interactions and (2) the figure I was looking for does not exist.
So, I made it myself! Here's a simple illustration of how to control for confounding in interactions:>
Reposted by Muhammed Bulutay
The "unexpected compression" in wages continues!
Non-managerial wages (for around 80% of private workforce) continues to grow somewhat stronger than overall wages. This means the reduction in wage inequality post-pandemic has remained, and continued (at a slower pace).
Non-managerial wages (for around 80% of private workforce) continues to grow somewhat stronger than overall wages. This means the reduction in wage inequality post-pandemic has remained, and continued (at a slower pace).
May 2, 2025 at 12:51 PM
The "unexpected compression" in wages continues!
Non-managerial wages (for around 80% of private workforce) continues to grow somewhat stronger than overall wages. This means the reduction in wage inequality post-pandemic has remained, and continued (at a slower pace).
Non-managerial wages (for around 80% of private workforce) continues to grow somewhat stronger than overall wages. This means the reduction in wage inequality post-pandemic has remained, and continued (at a slower pace).
🚨New paper🚨
Classic rational inattention says people weigh costs vs. benefits when processing info.
We show that overprecision biases this evaluation — leading to misallocated attention.
📄 Theory + experiment
(link in last post)
#econsky @boschrosa.bsky.social
Classic rational inattention says people weigh costs vs. benefits when processing info.
We show that overprecision biases this evaluation — leading to misallocated attention.
📄 Theory + experiment
(link in last post)
#econsky @boschrosa.bsky.social
April 24, 2025 at 1:12 PM
🚨New paper🚨
Classic rational inattention says people weigh costs vs. benefits when processing info.
We show that overprecision biases this evaluation — leading to misallocated attention.
📄 Theory + experiment
(link in last post)
#econsky @boschrosa.bsky.social
Classic rational inattention says people weigh costs vs. benefits when processing info.
We show that overprecision biases this evaluation — leading to misallocated attention.
📄 Theory + experiment
(link in last post)
#econsky @boschrosa.bsky.social
This is something people undervalue about laboratory experiments. One can credibly boost the understanding of instructions, sometimes just by reading them aloud.
(Study 2) They use lab participants instead of Prolific recruits. Study is pretty much identical to Oprea except for language and currency.
(Study 1) They run a variant, aimed at ensuring that subjects understand the task, in which "an experimenter ... read the instructions aloud."
(Study 1) They run a variant, aimed at ensuring that subjects understand the task, in which "an experimenter ... read the instructions aloud."
April 18, 2025 at 2:50 PM
This is something people undervalue about laboratory experiments. One can credibly boost the understanding of instructions, sometimes just by reading them aloud.
I want to try this 😂
Remember the "Highlights" that some Elsevier journals require? Dean Karlan and friends developed an amazing way to troll them: haikus!
April 15, 2025 at 6:02 PM
I want to try this 😂
Reposted by Muhammed Bulutay
🔔 Call for Participation 🔔
Lab² is inviting researchers to take part in a multi-analyst study on the effects of having daughters on various outcomes.
Join this metascience project as a co-author and gain the opportunity to work with SOEP data!
Lab² is inviting researchers to take part in a multi-analyst study on the effects of having daughters on various outcomes.
Join this metascience project as a co-author and gain the opportunity to work with SOEP data!
#ManyDaughters
Many Analysts
www.manydaughters.com
March 31, 2025 at 12:04 PM
🔔 Call for Participation 🔔
Lab² is inviting researchers to take part in a multi-analyst study on the effects of having daughters on various outcomes.
Join this metascience project as a co-author and gain the opportunity to work with SOEP data!
Lab² is inviting researchers to take part in a multi-analyst study on the effects of having daughters on various outcomes.
Join this metascience project as a co-author and gain the opportunity to work with SOEP data!
Reposted by Muhammed Bulutay
I’ve just completed a revision of a paper titled “Psychological narratives in decision theory: what they are and what they are good for.”
I believe it makes a contribution to the recent literature on the epistemic role of narratives in science, particularly in economics.
ssrn.com/abstract=476...
I believe it makes a contribution to the recent literature on the epistemic role of narratives in science, particularly in economics.
ssrn.com/abstract=476...
March 28, 2025 at 11:35 AM
I’ve just completed a revision of a paper titled “Psychological narratives in decision theory: what they are and what they are good for.”
I believe it makes a contribution to the recent literature on the epistemic role of narratives in science, particularly in economics.
ssrn.com/abstract=476...
I believe it makes a contribution to the recent literature on the epistemic role of narratives in science, particularly in economics.
ssrn.com/abstract=476...
This is a great opportunity to join us in the beautiful city of Heidelberg.
Let me note that experiments are a common method among the faculty, including macroeconomists and microeconomists.
Let me note that experiments are a common method among the faculty, including macroeconomists and microeconomists.
I have a postdoc position in Behavioral/Experimental Economics available for 6 years, at the oldest university in Germany in beautiful Heidelberg. Please forward to anyone who might be interested!
#EconJobs #AcademicJobs #HigherEd #Economics #JobAlert
#EconJobs #AcademicJobs #HigherEd #Economics #JobAlert
March 27, 2025 at 4:07 PM
This is a great opportunity to join us in the beautiful city of Heidelberg.
Let me note that experiments are a common method among the faculty, including macroeconomists and microeconomists.
Let me note that experiments are a common method among the faculty, including macroeconomists and microeconomists.
That sounds like a good idea. I just hope it doesn't have unintended effects like discrimination.
We are pleased to announce an experiment intended to stimulate academic discussion and exchange, centered on papers published in Econometrica 1/5
March 27, 2025 at 1:46 PM
That sounds like a good idea. I just hope it doesn't have unintended effects like discrimination.
Reposted by Muhammed Bulutay
I finally have a publication date for my new Experimental Economics textbook: December 12. Equally as important, I am proud to have negotiated a low price for the book: $38.10...for a nearly 800 page book!
You can find the book here: www.amazon.com/Experimental...
You can find the book here: www.amazon.com/Experimental...
March 25, 2025 at 9:23 AM
I finally have a publication date for my new Experimental Economics textbook: December 12. Equally as important, I am proud to have negotiated a low price for the book: $38.10...for a nearly 800 page book!
You can find the book here: www.amazon.com/Experimental...
You can find the book here: www.amazon.com/Experimental...
Reposted by Muhammed Bulutay
Whenever I post about climate, skeptical folks inevitable respond with this graph. So I decided to do something radical: actually read the underling scientific paper and ask the authors.
As it turns out, it actually says the opposite of what skeptics claim: www.theclimatebrink....
As it turns out, it actually says the opposite of what skeptics claim: www.theclimatebrink....
March 24, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Whenever I post about climate, skeptical folks inevitable respond with this graph. So I decided to do something radical: actually read the underling scientific paper and ask the authors.
As it turns out, it actually says the opposite of what skeptics claim: www.theclimatebrink....
As it turns out, it actually says the opposite of what skeptics claim: www.theclimatebrink....
Much of the recent literature uses non-incentivized measures of beliefs and attitudes. The typical justification is based on simplicity. This study seems to show otherwise.
Experimental validation, which links economic preferences to choices in incentivized elicitations, may fail to produce reliable new measures, from Jonathan Chapman, Pietro Ortoleva, Erik Snowberg, Leeat Yariv, and Colin Camerer https://www.nber.org/papers/w33520
March 5, 2025 at 7:45 PM
Much of the recent literature uses non-incentivized measures of beliefs and attitudes. The typical justification is based on simplicity. This study seems to show otherwise.
Reposted by Muhammed Bulutay
If one person gives a euro to Ukraine, the result is €1.
If two people give 2 each, it is €4.
If 3,000 give 3,000 each, it is 9 million.
Let’s coordinate, here 👇
and please re-post to spread the word.
yourcontributionsquared.eu/en/
If two people give 2 each, it is €4.
If 3,000 give 3,000 each, it is 9 million.
Let’s coordinate, here 👇
and please re-post to spread the word.
yourcontributionsquared.eu/en/
Your Contribution Squared
yourcontributionsquared.eu
March 3, 2025 at 10:22 AM
If one person gives a euro to Ukraine, the result is €1.
If two people give 2 each, it is €4.
If 3,000 give 3,000 each, it is 9 million.
Let’s coordinate, here 👇
and please re-post to spread the word.
yourcontributionsquared.eu/en/
If two people give 2 each, it is €4.
If 3,000 give 3,000 each, it is 9 million.
Let’s coordinate, here 👇
and please re-post to spread the word.
yourcontributionsquared.eu/en/
This is the summer school that got me interested in macroeconomics and finance. I highly recommend it.
And it is in Barcelona!
www.upf.edu/web/beslab/h...
And it is in Barcelona!
www.upf.edu/web/beslab/h...
16th BESLAB Experimental Economics Summer School in Macroeconomics, June 16-22, 2025
16th BESLAB Experimental Economics Summer School in Macroeconomics
www.upf.edu
February 28, 2025 at 12:23 PM
This is the summer school that got me interested in macroeconomics and finance. I highly recommend it.
And it is in Barcelona!
www.upf.edu/web/beslab/h...
And it is in Barcelona!
www.upf.edu/web/beslab/h...
I wonder if they would behave differently if there were some humans in the market. The common knowledge of rationality may be what's driving their outcome.
LLM agents behave unlike humans in standard experimental finance (bubble) experiments.
February 28, 2025 at 12:18 PM
I wonder if they would behave differently if there were some humans in the market. The common knowledge of rationality may be what's driving their outcome.
Reposted by Muhammed Bulutay
After a long wait, the working paper for the Many-Economists Project: The Sources of Researcher Variation in Economics. We had 146 teams perform the same research three times, each time with less freedom. What source of freedom leads to different choices and results? papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
The Sources of Researcher Variation in Economics
We use a rigorous three-stage many-analysts design to assess how different researcher decisions—specifically data cleaning, research design, and the interpretat
papers.ssrn.com
February 25, 2025 at 7:17 PM
After a long wait, the working paper for the Many-Economists Project: The Sources of Researcher Variation in Economics. We had 146 teams perform the same research three times, each time with less freedom. What source of freedom leads to different choices and results? papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
This is a very interesting result.
My opinion: RCTs remain one of the more robust methods for p-hacking because the results are more verifiable due to data availability, pre-registration, and simplicity of analyses. In contrast, IV, structural, and simulations are much more flexible for p-hacking.
My opinion: RCTs remain one of the more robust methods for p-hacking because the results are more verifiable due to data availability, pre-registration, and simplicity of analyses. In contrast, IV, structural, and simulations are much more flexible for p-hacking.
There is large variation by Methods.
RCTs and RDDs have relatively high null results across all fields. Typically, with RCTs it is harder to do specification mining to get your desired large result.
Sadly, the scandal shows there may be other research malpractice that can get you there.
RCTs and RDDs have relatively high null results across all fields. Typically, with RCTs it is harder to do specification mining to get your desired large result.
Sadly, the scandal shows there may be other research malpractice that can get you there.
February 25, 2025 at 3:04 PM
This is a very interesting result.
My opinion: RCTs remain one of the more robust methods for p-hacking because the results are more verifiable due to data availability, pre-registration, and simplicity of analyses. In contrast, IV, structural, and simulations are much more flexible for p-hacking.
My opinion: RCTs remain one of the more robust methods for p-hacking because the results are more verifiable due to data availability, pre-registration, and simplicity of analyses. In contrast, IV, structural, and simulations are much more flexible for p-hacking.
Reposted by Muhammed Bulutay
The 2025 Annual Meeting of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA) will be co-organized with the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Harvard Business School
Deadline March 20!
Also a session organized by @suomenpankki.fi !
cebra.org/events/annua...
Deadline March 20!
Also a session organized by @suomenpankki.fi !
cebra.org/events/annua...
Annual Meeting - CEBRA
2025 CEBRA Annual Meeting: Call for Papers The 2025 Annual Meeting of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA) will be co-organized with the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Harvard Business Sc...
cebra.org
February 25, 2025 at 9:04 AM
The 2025 Annual Meeting of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA) will be co-organized with the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Harvard Business School
Deadline March 20!
Also a session organized by @suomenpankki.fi !
cebra.org/events/annua...
Deadline March 20!
Also a session organized by @suomenpankki.fi !
cebra.org/events/annua...
Reposted by Muhammed Bulutay
After being alerted about possible misconduct, the I4R are reproducing published papers that use data from a specific NGO (GDRI). This thread releases the first 2 reports and provides more information about the work and responses/statements from authors journals and journals. 🧵
February 24, 2025 at 1:55 AM
After being alerted about possible misconduct, the I4R are reproducing published papers that use data from a specific NGO (GDRI). This thread releases the first 2 reports and provides more information about the work and responses/statements from authors journals and journals. 🧵
I really like stacked bar charts for time series.
🗳️ Germany: Left, centre, and right at the federal elections since 1949, updated with the official 2025 preliminary results
February 24, 2025 at 8:05 AM
I really like stacked bar charts for time series.
Reposted by Muhammed Bulutay
With companies debating return-to-office policies, Alessandra Fenizia @afenizia.bsky.social (GWU) examines productivity differences between remote and office work—using data from UK public sector workers.
Hosted by @talknormal.co.uk
🔊 Listen here: cepr.org/multimedia/d...
#EconSky
Hosted by @talknormal.co.uk
🔊 Listen here: cepr.org/multimedia/d...
#EconSky
February 21, 2025 at 1:52 PM
With companies debating return-to-office policies, Alessandra Fenizia @afenizia.bsky.social (GWU) examines productivity differences between remote and office work—using data from UK public sector workers.
Hosted by @talknormal.co.uk
🔊 Listen here: cepr.org/multimedia/d...
#EconSky
Hosted by @talknormal.co.uk
🔊 Listen here: cepr.org/multimedia/d...
#EconSky
I always wanted to see the data on train delays. My experience with German trains has been so bad that I've begun to think I might be underestimating train delays in other countries. This data proves otherwise.
Olaf Scholz mocked British railways over “broken tracks and bad trains”, claiming that "nothing works any more” in the UK. Turns out: Germany rail problems have become so bad that Deutsche Bahn long-distance service is less punctual than even the worst operator in Britain. www.ft.com/content/d3b6...
February 19, 2025 at 12:42 PM
I always wanted to see the data on train delays. My experience with German trains has been so bad that I've begun to think I might be underestimating train delays in other countries. This data proves otherwise.