Muhammed Bulutay
@mvbulutay.bsky.social
Postdoc at Heidelberg University.
I am a behavioral economist who works on topics related to information and expectations, using experimental methods.
https://www.muhammedbulutay.com/
I am a behavioral economist who works on topics related to information and expectations, using experimental methods.
https://www.muhammedbulutay.com/
We ran a pre-registered experiment to test the model.
🎯Task: Guess average age of people in historical pictures (e.g., Solvay Conference) — before & after seeing info.
Treatments:
- Feedback on belief calibration (overprecision shifter)
- Noise on the info (attention costs shifter)
🎯Task: Guess average age of people in historical pictures (e.g., Solvay Conference) — before & after seeing info.
Treatments:
- Feedback on belief calibration (overprecision shifter)
- Noise on the info (attention costs shifter)
April 24, 2025 at 1:12 PM
We ran a pre-registered experiment to test the model.
🎯Task: Guess average age of people in historical pictures (e.g., Solvay Conference) — before & after seeing info.
Treatments:
- Feedback on belief calibration (overprecision shifter)
- Noise on the info (attention costs shifter)
🎯Task: Guess average age of people in historical pictures (e.g., Solvay Conference) — before & after seeing info.
Treatments:
- Feedback on belief calibration (overprecision shifter)
- Noise on the info (attention costs shifter)
We extend rational inattention theory to incorporate overprecision.
A new prediction: Reducing costs of info processing has asymmetric welfare effects.
Example: A central bank simplifies communication to reduce inattention.
✅ Overprecise households react more
❌ Underprecise households react less
A new prediction: Reducing costs of info processing has asymmetric welfare effects.
Example: A central bank simplifies communication to reduce inattention.
✅ Overprecise households react more
❌ Underprecise households react less
April 24, 2025 at 1:12 PM
We extend rational inattention theory to incorporate overprecision.
A new prediction: Reducing costs of info processing has asymmetric welfare effects.
Example: A central bank simplifies communication to reduce inattention.
✅ Overprecise households react more
❌ Underprecise households react less
A new prediction: Reducing costs of info processing has asymmetric welfare effects.
Example: A central bank simplifies communication to reduce inattention.
✅ Overprecise households react more
❌ Underprecise households react less
🚨New paper🚨
Classic rational inattention says people weigh costs vs. benefits when processing info.
We show that overprecision biases this evaluation — leading to misallocated attention.
📄 Theory + experiment
(link in last post)
#econsky @boschrosa.bsky.social
Classic rational inattention says people weigh costs vs. benefits when processing info.
We show that overprecision biases this evaluation — leading to misallocated attention.
📄 Theory + experiment
(link in last post)
#econsky @boschrosa.bsky.social
April 24, 2025 at 1:12 PM
🚨New paper🚨
Classic rational inattention says people weigh costs vs. benefits when processing info.
We show that overprecision biases this evaluation — leading to misallocated attention.
📄 Theory + experiment
(link in last post)
#econsky @boschrosa.bsky.social
Classic rational inattention says people weigh costs vs. benefits when processing info.
We show that overprecision biases this evaluation — leading to misallocated attention.
📄 Theory + experiment
(link in last post)
#econsky @boschrosa.bsky.social
Tomorrow at #EWMES 2024 I'll be presenting a new project with @boschrosa.bsky.social and Bernhard Kassner on how overconfidence affects attention allocation.
Come and listen if you're in Palma and interested!
WP available on request.
Come and listen if you're in Palma and interested!
WP available on request.
December 17, 2024 at 10:04 PM
Tomorrow at #EWMES 2024 I'll be presenting a new project with @boschrosa.bsky.social and Bernhard Kassner on how overconfidence affects attention allocation.
Come and listen if you're in Palma and interested!
WP available on request.
Come and listen if you're in Palma and interested!
WP available on request.
Mark Blaug has a great discussion of the applicability and appropriateness of Kuhn's approach to economics in 1975.
It's a great read that I highly recommend.
It's a great read that I highly recommend.
November 29, 2024 at 11:25 AM
Mark Blaug has a great discussion of the applicability and appropriateness of Kuhn's approach to economics in 1975.
It's a great read that I highly recommend.
It's a great read that I highly recommend.
Heidelberg is a mesmerizing city.
October 6, 2024 at 11:57 AM
Heidelberg is a mesmerizing city.
This will look cooler when we reach 100 million.
September 19, 2024 at 3:17 PM
This will look cooler when we reach 100 million.
Unforgettable moment with Ryan Rholes from the high table of Jesus College. Stay tuned for our upcoming project ;)
December 2, 2023 at 2:34 PM
Unforgettable moment with Ryan Rholes from the high table of Jesus College. Stay tuned for our upcoming project ;)
Hence, I have met my idol 😌🥲
November 15, 2023 at 8:53 AM
Hence, I have met my idol 😌🥲
Tomorrow I will present the main findings of my job market paper in CEPR's "Central Bank Communication" webinar (organized by Michael McMahon).
Sign up and hear from inspiring junior researchers in the field:
cepr-org.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Sign up and hear from inspiring junior researchers in the field:
cepr-org.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
October 18, 2023 at 12:01 PM
Tomorrow I will present the main findings of my job market paper in CEPR's "Central Bank Communication" webinar (organized by Michael McMahon).
Sign up and hear from inspiring junior researchers in the field:
cepr-org.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Sign up and hear from inspiring junior researchers in the field:
cepr-org.zoom.us/webinar/regi...