Michael Renaudin
@mrenaud04.bsky.social
Scientist by day, amateur demographer by night.
"Walk on air against your better judgment." -Seamus Heaney
"Walk on air against your better judgment." -Seamus Heaney
Reposted by Michael Renaudin
Weakening mortgage apps for purchases suggests all those hoping for a big housing rebound in response to lower rates are likely to be disappointed.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/housing-ma...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/housing-ma...
October 26, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Weakening mortgage apps for purchases suggests all those hoping for a big housing rebound in response to lower rates are likely to be disappointed.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/housing-ma...
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/housing-ma...
Reposted by Michael Renaudin
Recession Watch Metrics www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/rece...
Recession Watch Metrics
Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
September 8, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Recession Watch Metrics www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/rece...
Reposted by Michael Renaudin
Agism runs rampant in VC investment decisions.
Not only does empirical evidence contradict such thinking, but it's unethical behavior which runs directly counter to the core American values of equal opportunity.
mitsloan.mit.edu/shared/ods/d...
Not only does empirical evidence contradict such thinking, but it's unethical behavior which runs directly counter to the core American values of equal opportunity.
mitsloan.mit.edu/shared/ods/d...
September 3, 2025 at 8:53 PM
Agism runs rampant in VC investment decisions.
Not only does empirical evidence contradict such thinking, but it's unethical behavior which runs directly counter to the core American values of equal opportunity.
mitsloan.mit.edu/shared/ods/d...
Not only does empirical evidence contradict such thinking, but it's unethical behavior which runs directly counter to the core American values of equal opportunity.
mitsloan.mit.edu/shared/ods/d...
Reposted by Michael Renaudin
It’s official: Former senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) says he’s running for the Senate seat held by Republican Jon Husted, who was appointed to replace JD Vance. youtu.be/rzrV75TX160?...
Do Something About It For Ohio
YouTube video by Sherrod Brown
youtu.be
August 18, 2025 at 12:40 PM
It’s official: Former senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) says he’s running for the Senate seat held by Republican Jon Husted, who was appointed to replace JD Vance. youtu.be/rzrV75TX160?...
Reposted by Michael Renaudin
Goldman: “We find that US consumers had absorbed 22% of tariff costs through June but that their share will rise to 67% … This implies that US businesses have absorbed more than half of the tariff costs so far but that their share will fall to less than 10%”
More inflation coming!
More inflation coming!
August 10, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Goldman: “We find that US consumers had absorbed 22% of tariff costs through June but that their share will rise to 67% … This implies that US businesses have absorbed more than half of the tariff costs so far but that their share will fall to less than 10%”
More inflation coming!
More inflation coming!
Reposted by Michael Renaudin
Any of Dems’ difficult Senate hopes next year go through North Carolina.
July 23, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Any of Dems’ difficult Senate hopes next year go through North Carolina.
Labor force demographics plus decreased immigration equal wage pressures again?
coloradosun.com/2025/06/15/c...
coloradosun.com/2025/06/15/c...
Colorado workers at 4 Safeway stores and a Denver distribution center go on strike
Grocery workers involved in the strike work at stores in Estes Park, Fountain and Pueblo. More expected to join this week.
coloradosun.com
June 16, 2025 at 7:20 AM
Labor force demographics plus decreased immigration equal wage pressures again?
coloradosun.com/2025/06/15/c...
coloradosun.com/2025/06/15/c...
Reposted by Michael Renaudin
These are the people that make America great 🇲🇽🇺🇸
June 13, 2025 at 1:49 AM
These are the people that make America great 🇲🇽🇺🇸
Bingo 👇
Trump Wants to Rule as a Dictator. Make Him Do It. talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump...
Trump Wants to Rule as a Dictator. Make Him Do It.
I was driving when this afternoon’s events in Los Angeles took place....
talkingpointsmemo.com
June 13, 2025 at 12:02 AM
Bingo 👇
Reposted by Michael Renaudin
The latest HaMMR has dropped: "Tides Turning."
Check out our key takeaways and link below for our breakdown last week's biggest data releases and what they mean for the outlook.
#EconSky
Check out our key takeaways and link below for our breakdown last week's biggest data releases and what they mean for the outlook.
#EconSky
June 10, 2025 at 8:46 PM
The latest HaMMR has dropped: "Tides Turning."
Check out our key takeaways and link below for our breakdown last week's biggest data releases and what they mean for the outlook.
#EconSky
Check out our key takeaways and link below for our breakdown last week's biggest data releases and what they mean for the outlook.
#EconSky
Reposted by Michael Renaudin
The implications of a flagging labor force are disconcerting. It means serious disruptions to businesses that rely on immigrant labor, ranging from construction and agriculture to hospitality and retailing. It also means higher inflation, just when the higher tariffs are set to push up prices.
June 9, 2025 at 4:54 PM
The implications of a flagging labor force are disconcerting. It means serious disruptions to businesses that rely on immigrant labor, ranging from construction and agriculture to hospitality and retailing. It also means higher inflation, just when the higher tariffs are set to push up prices.
Reposted by Michael Renaudin
Haliburton, as called in:
Brazil, France, Iceland, U.S. (in Spanish), Albania, U.S. (ESPN Radio), Indianapolis, Oklahoma City, the Netherlands, Türkiye, Canada, and Croatia:
Brazil, France, Iceland, U.S. (in Spanish), Albania, U.S. (ESPN Radio), Indianapolis, Oklahoma City, the Netherlands, Türkiye, Canada, and Croatia:
June 6, 2025 at 4:08 AM
Haliburton, as called in:
Brazil, France, Iceland, U.S. (in Spanish), Albania, U.S. (ESPN Radio), Indianapolis, Oklahoma City, the Netherlands, Türkiye, Canada, and Croatia:
Brazil, France, Iceland, U.S. (in Spanish), Albania, U.S. (ESPN Radio), Indianapolis, Oklahoma City, the Netherlands, Türkiye, Canada, and Croatia:
Interesting anecdotal data coming in that made me abandon the SP500 for money market funds in all holdings. Belt tightening is underway and it's going to snowball.
May 8, 2025 at 7:56 PM
Interesting anecdotal data coming in that made me abandon the SP500 for money market funds in all holdings. Belt tightening is underway and it's going to snowball.
Reposted by Michael Renaudin
Texas conservatives who've championed book bans & anti-LGBT policies suffered big losses tonight in school board races.
And They seem to have lost their working majorities to pass their policies in big school boards.
I tracked these results in FOUR boards tonight. So a 🧵 on each ICYMI.
And They seem to have lost their working majorities to pass their policies in big school boards.
I tracked these results in FOUR boards tonight. So a 🧵 on each ICYMI.
May 4, 2025 at 4:57 AM
Texas conservatives who've championed book bans & anti-LGBT policies suffered big losses tonight in school board races.
And They seem to have lost their working majorities to pass their policies in big school boards.
I tracked these results in FOUR boards tonight. So a 🧵 on each ICYMI.
And They seem to have lost their working majorities to pass their policies in big school boards.
I tracked these results in FOUR boards tonight. So a 🧵 on each ICYMI.
Trump is underestimating 1.) the power of authoritarianism in a trade war and 2.) the magnitude of nationalism currently in the people of China. Oh, and JD Vance implying that China is a nation of peasants isn't particularly helpful with point number 2.
BREAKING: China announced countermeasures by raising tariffs on U.S. goods from 84% to 125% starting Saturday.
China announces countermeasures by raising tariffs on US goods from 84% to 125% from Saturday
China has announced countermeasures by raising tariffs on U.S. goods from 84% to 125% starting Saturday.
bit.ly
April 11, 2025 at 9:21 AM
Trump is underestimating 1.) the power of authoritarianism in a trade war and 2.) the magnitude of nationalism currently in the people of China. Oh, and JD Vance implying that China is a nation of peasants isn't particularly helpful with point number 2.
Reposted by Michael Renaudin
Global businesses are now signaling recession. This is according to Moody’s weekly survey of businesses we’ve conducted for over 20 years. President Trump’s shocking hike in U.S. tariffs and China's tit-for-tat response crushed global business sentiment last week. 🧵
April 9, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Global businesses are now signaling recession. This is according to Moody’s weekly survey of businesses we’ve conducted for over 20 years. President Trump’s shocking hike in U.S. tariffs and China's tit-for-tat response crushed global business sentiment last week. 🧵
Even gold-adjusted, we're now in negative GDP territory. Model for Q1 2025 at -0.3%. Not a great start for the year.
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
April 9, 2025 at 4:27 PM
Even gold-adjusted, we're now in negative GDP territory. Model for Q1 2025 at -0.3%. Not a great start for the year.
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
"If you're going to come to your senses [re: supporting Trump] just because your 401k took a nosedive, you still haven't pulled your head out of your ass." -Sam Harris, April 2025
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlrU...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlrU...
Sam Harris on Tariffs, SignalGate, Trump, Elon, Joe Rogan, & Douglas Murray
YouTube video by Sam Harris
www.youtube.com
April 7, 2025 at 4:03 AM
"If you're going to come to your senses [re: supporting Trump] just because your 401k took a nosedive, you still haven't pulled your head out of your ass." -Sam Harris, April 2025
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlrU...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlrU...
4 in 10 ppl in the US will eventually get cancer. It statistically has, does or will affect every family in the country. This disastrous incursion into the NIH needs to be shouted from every corner of the country!
I would be making a big deal out of this if I were an elected Democrat
NIH scientists have a cancer breakthrough. Layoffs are delaying it.
A big step forward in cancer therapy has been slowed by layoffs and new restrictions at the National Institutes of Health, where it was developed.
www.washingtonpost.com
April 7, 2025 at 3:13 AM
4 in 10 ppl in the US will eventually get cancer. It statistically has, does or will affect every family in the country. This disastrous incursion into the NIH needs to be shouted from every corner of the country!
Reposted by Michael Renaudin
Yes! There are 6 laws that grant the President these powers and he is currently using Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977. In that act, it specifically says that Congress can terminate the national emergency serving as the basis for the tariffs. A simple majority in both houses will do it.
April 7, 2025 at 2:14 AM
Yes! There are 6 laws that grant the President these powers and he is currently using Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977. In that act, it specifically says that Congress can terminate the national emergency serving as the basis for the tariffs. A simple majority in both houses will do it.
Reposted by Michael Renaudin
Recession Watch www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/04/rece...
To conclude: I'm now on recession watch, but I'm not predicting a recession.
To conclude: I'm now on recession watch, but I'm not predicting a recession.
April 5, 2025 at 11:21 PM
Recession Watch www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/04/rece...
To conclude: I'm now on recession watch, but I'm not predicting a recession.
To conclude: I'm now on recession watch, but I'm not predicting a recession.
Reposted by Michael Renaudin
This is a good, funny sign. But it gets at a key element of what Social Security does. Middle aged people who aren't fully supporting aging parents can fund their kids education. It runs through the whole life cycle.
April 5, 2025 at 9:13 PM
This is a good, funny sign. But it gets at a key element of what Social Security does. Middle aged people who aren't fully supporting aging parents can fund their kids education. It runs through the whole life cycle.
!!!
April 4, 2025 at 3:35 AM
!!!
Very much looking forward to this!
We will have a lot to talk about starting April 9 on the new David Frum podcast, aka "the free trade hour" www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqKI...
Introducing: The David Frum Show
YouTube video by The Atlantic
www.youtube.com
April 3, 2025 at 11:26 PM
Very much looking forward to this!
Reposted by Michael Renaudin
Kevin Hassett promised Dow 36,000 and by God, Kevin Hassett will deliver Dow 36,000! Only 5000 more points to drop
April 3, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Kevin Hassett promised Dow 36,000 and by God, Kevin Hassett will deliver Dow 36,000! Only 5000 more points to drop