Michael Renaudin
@mrenaud04.bsky.social
Scientist by day, amateur demographer by night.
"Walk on air against your better judgment." -Seamus Heaney
"Walk on air against your better judgment." -Seamus Heaney
I’ve agreed for a while that this is going to be a spectacular mess. I still think private credit will smack Wall Street (and everyone else) in the face first.
August 12, 2025 at 6:52 AM
I’ve agreed for a while that this is going to be a spectacular mess. I still think private credit will smack Wall Street (and everyone else) in the face first.
I posted this over two years ago. And that green line is correcting. People just underestimate how long it will take and how boring it will be.
July 19, 2025 at 7:23 PM
I posted this over two years ago. And that green line is correcting. People just underestimate how long it will take and how boring it will be.
At the end of the day, isn't it all just demographics?
July 11, 2025 at 6:38 AM
At the end of the day, isn't it all just demographics?
Great podcast! When you said that if we have a recession unemployment might go up but "not as much", I agree. I've been leaning on this chart for a few years now. We could very well have a low unemployment recession (whatever that looks like🤷♂️).
June 10, 2025 at 8:17 AM
Great podcast! When you said that if we have a recession unemployment might go up but "not as much", I agree. I've been leaning on this chart for a few years now. We could very well have a low unemployment recession (whatever that looks like🤷♂️).
Barring some massive AI-induced productivity surge (of which I'm very skeptical), I think this will keep jobs data fine for a few more years maybe even in turbulent times.
June 3, 2025 at 11:55 PM
Barring some massive AI-induced productivity surge (of which I'm very skeptical), I think this will keep jobs data fine for a few more years maybe even in turbulent times.
Thank you. I'm guessing we'll see upward pressure on openings then until maybe the end of the decade.
June 3, 2025 at 11:49 PM
Thank you. I'm guessing we'll see upward pressure on openings then until maybe the end of the decade.
Can household debt and employment demographics keep nutty policy decisions at bay? My fear is that these two macro data points conceal trade war damage long enough (year or more) and then finally run out leading to a giant disaster that gets blamed on something else? Just asking as an amateur.
May 2, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Can household debt and employment demographics keep nutty policy decisions at bay? My fear is that these two macro data points conceal trade war damage long enough (year or more) and then finally run out leading to a giant disaster that gets blamed on something else? Just asking as an amateur.
Would it be reasonable to say these two macro data points provide a significant cushion against a serious downturn? Households seem to have breathing room and demographics make it difficult for unemployment to spike significantly?
May 2, 2025 at 6:52 PM
Would it be reasonable to say these two macro data points provide a significant cushion against a serious downturn? Households seem to have breathing room and demographics make it difficult for unemployment to spike significantly?
Even gold-adjusted, we're now in negative GDP territory. Model for Q1 2025 at -0.3%. Not a great start for the year.
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
April 9, 2025 at 4:27 PM
Even gold-adjusted, we're now in negative GDP territory. Model for Q1 2025 at -0.3%. Not a great start for the year.
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
Quick comment. In the "Savings provisions" part of the IEEP Act of 1977, Congress can terminate the basis of the tariffs at any time with a concurrent resolution. I know that SCOTUS has ruled that concurrent resolutions are a form of Congressional veto but not sure if that applies to this law?
April 7, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Quick comment. In the "Savings provisions" part of the IEEP Act of 1977, Congress can terminate the basis of the tariffs at any time with a concurrent resolution. I know that SCOTUS has ruled that concurrent resolutions are a form of Congressional veto but not sure if that applies to this law?
It's going to take so much pain to break this cultish fever. Unfortunately, MAGA is going to socialize the pain.
April 7, 2025 at 4:28 AM
It's going to take so much pain to break this cultish fever. Unfortunately, MAGA is going to socialize the pain.
Four Republicans in the House and Four in the Senate is all it will take to stop this. From the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977:
www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/...
www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/...
April 7, 2025 at 3:41 AM
Four Republicans in the House and Four in the Senate is all it will take to stop this. From the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977:
www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/...
www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/...
Will it break this cult fever though? The results of this YouGov poll last week makes me think it will take a lot of pain 😔
April 7, 2025 at 3:22 AM
Will it break this cult fever though? The results of this YouGov poll last week makes me think it will take a lot of pain 😔
Yes! There are 6 laws that grant the President these powers and he is currently using Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977. In that act, it specifically says that Congress can terminate the national emergency serving as the basis for the tariffs. A simple majority in both houses will do it.
April 7, 2025 at 2:14 AM
Yes! There are 6 laws that grant the President these powers and he is currently using Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977. In that act, it specifically says that Congress can terminate the national emergency serving as the basis for the tariffs. A simple majority in both houses will do it.
Soooo close. Quick question as you’ve been following this waaaay longer than I have. Do you see a psychological effect when the 10 yr breaks a whole number? Is there a crowd mentality of “oh things are getting bad, time to move to treasuries” compounding the yield drop?
April 4, 2025 at 2:39 AM
Soooo close. Quick question as you’ve been following this waaaay longer than I have. Do you see a psychological effect when the 10 yr breaks a whole number? Is there a crowd mentality of “oh things are getting bad, time to move to treasuries” compounding the yield drop?
@loganmohtashami.bsky.social You have that pic ready to go?
April 3, 2025 at 3:33 AM
@loganmohtashami.bsky.social You have that pic ready to go?
This from @jeffstein.bsky.social's recent article makes me think Trump is going all the way with this. And he fully believes the short term pain / long term gain magical thinking we're already hearing come from his people.
March 29, 2025 at 7:05 PM
This from @jeffstein.bsky.social's recent article makes me think Trump is going all the way with this. And he fully believes the short term pain / long term gain magical thinking we're already hearing come from his people.
It's hard for this administration to shock at this point, but this shocked me. Anyone trying to scrub Sgt. William Carney from our history books should be forced to surrender their US citizenship.
www.gazettextra.com/news/nation_...
www.gazettextra.com/news/nation_...
March 21, 2025 at 6:00 PM
It's hard for this administration to shock at this point, but this shocked me. Anyone trying to scrub Sgt. William Carney from our history books should be forced to surrender their US citizenship.
www.gazettextra.com/news/nation_...
www.gazettextra.com/news/nation_...
One thing I've learned from @loganmohtashami.bsky.social is to watch this closely. If construction employment goes south, would that push you into "watch" territory or is there a higher priority indicator you're watching?
March 19, 2025 at 2:05 AM
One thing I've learned from @loganmohtashami.bsky.social is to watch this closely. If construction employment goes south, would that push you into "watch" territory or is there a higher priority indicator you're watching?
Page 62, why do Republicans love cancer so much?
March 8, 2025 at 11:20 PM
Page 62, why do Republicans love cancer so much?
March 6, 2025 at 5:09 PM
A few reasons why the US does conspiracy theories like no other. Terrible inequality and a terrible social safety net. Fascinating paper.
And if uncertainty is a good of a predictor of conspiracy adoption, we're headed into one hell of a mind storm.
spssi.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
And if uncertainty is a good of a predictor of conspiracy adoption, we're headed into one hell of a mind storm.
spssi.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
March 5, 2025 at 4:16 AM
A few reasons why the US does conspiracy theories like no other. Terrible inequality and a terrible social safety net. Fascinating paper.
And if uncertainty is a good of a predictor of conspiracy adoption, we're headed into one hell of a mind storm.
spssi.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
And if uncertainty is a good of a predictor of conspiracy adoption, we're headed into one hell of a mind storm.
spssi.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
March 4, 2025 at 12:52 AM