Parker Ross
@econparker.bsky.social
Global Chief Economist @ Arch Capital Group | ex JPM AIG HUD | Husband to Jamie; Dad to Landon, Greyson & Logan | No investment advice & views are my own 🦬🇺🇸🇮🇱
https://www.linkedin.com/in/econ-parker/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/econ-parker/
I’ve been a bit quiet on here recently as my family ramped up preparations for our third son.
Thrilled to announce baby Logan has arrived!
Mom and baby are healthy and happy, and the big bros are over the moon!
Thrilled to announce baby Logan has arrived!
Mom and baby are healthy and happy, and the big bros are over the moon!
November 10, 2025 at 8:02 PM
I’ve been a bit quiet on here recently as my family ramped up preparations for our third son.
Thrilled to announce baby Logan has arrived!
Mom and baby are healthy and happy, and the big bros are over the moon!
Thrilled to announce baby Logan has arrived!
Mom and baby are healthy and happy, and the big bros are over the moon!
As I showed yesterday, business investment in software & tech is adding more to GDP growth than ever before.
But here’s the catch: that capex contribution only captures the domestic slice of the boom.
Imports of Tech capex - up 90% in 2 years - tell the rest of the story.
More in 🧵
#EconThreads
But here’s the catch: that capex contribution only captures the domestic slice of the boom.
Imports of Tech capex - up 90% in 2 years - tell the rest of the story.
More in 🧵
#EconThreads
September 26, 2025 at 2:39 PM
As I showed yesterday, business investment in software & tech is adding more to GDP growth than ever before.
But here’s the catch: that capex contribution only captures the domestic slice of the boom.
Imports of Tech capex - up 90% in 2 years - tell the rest of the story.
More in 🧵
#EconThreads
But here’s the catch: that capex contribution only captures the domestic slice of the boom.
Imports of Tech capex - up 90% in 2 years - tell the rest of the story.
More in 🧵
#EconThreads
Software + Tech Bubble 2.0?
In terms of contribution to GDP, we've never seen a surge in tech & software investment of this scale.
For some perspective, here's the contribution to real GDP growth from businesses investing in software and technology since 1960.
#EconSky
In terms of contribution to GDP, we've never seen a surge in tech & software investment of this scale.
For some perspective, here's the contribution to real GDP growth from businesses investing in software and technology since 1960.
#EconSky
September 25, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Software + Tech Bubble 2.0?
In terms of contribution to GDP, we've never seen a surge in tech & software investment of this scale.
For some perspective, here's the contribution to real GDP growth from businesses investing in software and technology since 1960.
#EconSky
In terms of contribution to GDP, we've never seen a surge in tech & software investment of this scale.
For some perspective, here's the contribution to real GDP growth from businesses investing in software and technology since 1960.
#EconSky
Pretty notable upward revisions to 2Q25 real GDP growth this morning: up 50bps to 3.8% from 3.3% prior.
All of the upward revision was due to stronger than previously reported Consumer spending on of Services, Business Investment and a modest bump to Government consumption.
Details in 🧵
#EconSky
All of the upward revision was due to stronger than previously reported Consumer spending on of Services, Business Investment and a modest bump to Government consumption.
Details in 🧵
#EconSky
September 25, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Pretty notable upward revisions to 2Q25 real GDP growth this morning: up 50bps to 3.8% from 3.3% prior.
All of the upward revision was due to stronger than previously reported Consumer spending on of Services, Business Investment and a modest bump to Government consumption.
Details in 🧵
#EconSky
All of the upward revision was due to stronger than previously reported Consumer spending on of Services, Business Investment and a modest bump to Government consumption.
Details in 🧵
#EconSky
After spiking to a new post-pandemic high due to fraudulent claims in Texas, initial jobless claims have plunged back below their 3y average (222k) to 218k.
Meanwhile, continuing claims also ticked down (1,926k vs 1,928k the week before) but remained near post-pandemic highs.
Details in 🧵
#EconSky
Meanwhile, continuing claims also ticked down (1,926k vs 1,928k the week before) but remained near post-pandemic highs.
Details in 🧵
#EconSky
September 25, 2025 at 2:37 PM
After spiking to a new post-pandemic high due to fraudulent claims in Texas, initial jobless claims have plunged back below their 3y average (222k) to 218k.
Meanwhile, continuing claims also ticked down (1,926k vs 1,928k the week before) but remained near post-pandemic highs.
Details in 🧵
#EconSky
Meanwhile, continuing claims also ticked down (1,926k vs 1,928k the week before) but remained near post-pandemic highs.
Details in 🧵
#EconSky
Fed restarts policy normalization after almost a year due to soft data...
Data immediately starts rapidly surprising to the upside
#EconSky
Data immediately starts rapidly surprising to the upside
#EconSky
September 25, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Fed restarts policy normalization after almost a year due to soft data...
Data immediately starts rapidly surprising to the upside
#EconSky
Data immediately starts rapidly surprising to the upside
#EconSky
The latest HaMMR has dropped: "Risk Management 101."
Last week, the Fed's rate normalization process kicked back off & we got updates on the housing market, labor market, the consumer& industrial production.
Some thoughts on the latest developments + a link to this week's report in the 🧵
#EconSky
Last week, the Fed's rate normalization process kicked back off & we got updates on the housing market, labor market, the consumer& industrial production.
Some thoughts on the latest developments + a link to this week's report in the 🧵
#EconSky
September 23, 2025 at 7:05 PM
The latest HaMMR has dropped: "Risk Management 101."
Last week, the Fed's rate normalization process kicked back off & we got updates on the housing market, labor market, the consumer& industrial production.
Some thoughts on the latest developments + a link to this week's report in the 🧵
#EconSky
Last week, the Fed's rate normalization process kicked back off & we got updates on the housing market, labor market, the consumer& industrial production.
Some thoughts on the latest developments + a link to this week's report in the 🧵
#EconSky
The morning's MBA mortgage application report revealed something we haven't seen since the early days of the pandemic...
Mortgage refinance applications jumped 58% w/w last week as the 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell to the lowest level since last September.
Some more details in the 🧵
#EconSky
Mortgage refinance applications jumped 58% w/w last week as the 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell to the lowest level since last September.
Some more details in the 🧵
#EconSky
September 17, 2025 at 5:10 PM
The morning's MBA mortgage application report revealed something we haven't seen since the early days of the pandemic...
Mortgage refinance applications jumped 58% w/w last week as the 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell to the lowest level since last September.
Some more details in the 🧵
#EconSky
Mortgage refinance applications jumped 58% w/w last week as the 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell to the lowest level since last September.
Some more details in the 🧵
#EconSky
This was likely the cause of the highly unusual spike in Texas jobless claims 👇
www.twc.texas.gov/news/reminde...
#EconSky
www.twc.texas.gov/news/reminde...
#EconSky
September 11, 2025 at 4:12 PM
This was likely the cause of the highly unusual spike in Texas jobless claims 👇
www.twc.texas.gov/news/reminde...
#EconSky
www.twc.texas.gov/news/reminde...
#EconSky
Well, well, well...
After sitting on the backburner for some time, jobless claims are back in the headlines with the highest weekly print since the pandemic.
Initial jobless claims jumped by 32k to 263k during the week ending Sept 6.
Let's see what's going on in the 🧵
#EconSky
After sitting on the backburner for some time, jobless claims are back in the headlines with the highest weekly print since the pandemic.
Initial jobless claims jumped by 32k to 263k during the week ending Sept 6.
Let's see what's going on in the 🧵
#EconSky
September 11, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Well, well, well...
After sitting on the backburner for some time, jobless claims are back in the headlines with the highest weekly print since the pandemic.
Initial jobless claims jumped by 32k to 263k during the week ending Sept 6.
Let's see what's going on in the 🧵
#EconSky
After sitting on the backburner for some time, jobless claims are back in the headlines with the highest weekly print since the pandemic.
Initial jobless claims jumped by 32k to 263k during the week ending Sept 6.
Let's see what's going on in the 🧵
#EconSky
Aug PPI declined -0.1%, softer than expected (0.3%) although PPI excluding food, energy & trade was in-line with expectations at 0.3%.
What does this mean?
Core goods prices are still rising at an above trend pace, while broader price pressures eased.
Details in the 🧵
#EconSky
What does this mean?
Core goods prices are still rising at an above trend pace, while broader price pressures eased.
Details in the 🧵
#EconSky
September 10, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Aug PPI declined -0.1%, softer than expected (0.3%) although PPI excluding food, energy & trade was in-line with expectations at 0.3%.
What does this mean?
Core goods prices are still rising at an above trend pace, while broader price pressures eased.
Details in the 🧵
#EconSky
What does this mean?
Core goods prices are still rising at an above trend pace, while broader price pressures eased.
Details in the 🧵
#EconSky
The latest HaMMR has dropped: "Weirdonomics."
Last week brought us updates on the labor market & broader economic trends.
This week's big news will be the last CPI report ahead of next week's Sept. FOMC decision.
Quick thoughts on the latest developments and link to the report in the 🧵
#EconSky
Last week brought us updates on the labor market & broader economic trends.
This week's big news will be the last CPI report ahead of next week's Sept. FOMC decision.
Quick thoughts on the latest developments and link to the report in the 🧵
#EconSky
September 9, 2025 at 7:22 PM
The latest HaMMR has dropped: "Weirdonomics."
Last week brought us updates on the labor market & broader economic trends.
This week's big news will be the last CPI report ahead of next week's Sept. FOMC decision.
Quick thoughts on the latest developments and link to the report in the 🧵
#EconSky
Last week brought us updates on the labor market & broader economic trends.
This week's big news will be the last CPI report ahead of next week's Sept. FOMC decision.
Quick thoughts on the latest developments and link to the report in the 🧵
#EconSky
How will recent job growth look after today's Current Employment Statistics (CES) preliminary benchmark revisions?
Glad you asked.
Here's a look at monthly job growth if we include the revised data and carry forward that monthly pace of negative revisions through August.
Details in the 🧵
#EconSky
Glad you asked.
Here's a look at monthly job growth if we include the revised data and carry forward that monthly pace of negative revisions through August.
Details in the 🧵
#EconSky
September 9, 2025 at 3:15 PM
How will recent job growth look after today's Current Employment Statistics (CES) preliminary benchmark revisions?
Glad you asked.
Here's a look at monthly job growth if we include the revised data and carry forward that monthly pace of negative revisions through August.
Details in the 🧵
#EconSky
Glad you asked.
Here's a look at monthly job growth if we include the revised data and carry forward that monthly pace of negative revisions through August.
Details in the 🧵
#EconSky
The latest HaMMR has dropped: "Whipsawed."
Last week brought us updates on the consumer, inflation trends, and the manufacturing sector.
This week will be capped by Powell's speech at Jackson Hole.
Some quick thoughts on the latest developments and a link to this week's report in the 🧵
#EconSky
Last week brought us updates on the consumer, inflation trends, and the manufacturing sector.
This week will be capped by Powell's speech at Jackson Hole.
Some quick thoughts on the latest developments and a link to this week's report in the 🧵
#EconSky
August 19, 2025 at 7:07 PM
The latest HaMMR has dropped: "Whipsawed."
Last week brought us updates on the consumer, inflation trends, and the manufacturing sector.
This week will be capped by Powell's speech at Jackson Hole.
Some quick thoughts on the latest developments and a link to this week's report in the 🧵
#EconSky
Last week brought us updates on the consumer, inflation trends, and the manufacturing sector.
This week will be capped by Powell's speech at Jackson Hole.
Some quick thoughts on the latest developments and a link to this week's report in the 🧵
#EconSky
During a chat with @renmacllc.bsky.social, we were pontificating about the implications of weak office-using job growth.
I realized I haven't included that metric in my usual jobs report updates, so I whipped up a quick chart.
The trend over the last couple years is rather striking...
#EconSky
I realized I haven't included that metric in my usual jobs report updates, so I whipped up a quick chart.
The trend over the last couple years is rather striking...
#EconSky
August 15, 2025 at 8:02 PM
During a chat with @renmacllc.bsky.social, we were pontificating about the implications of weak office-using job growth.
I realized I haven't included that metric in my usual jobs report updates, so I whipped up a quick chart.
The trend over the last couple years is rather striking...
#EconSky
I realized I haven't included that metric in my usual jobs report updates, so I whipped up a quick chart.
The trend over the last couple years is rather striking...
#EconSky
July retail sales came in a tad lighter than expected at 0.5% m/m (consensus 0.6%) but June was revised up to 0.9% from 0.6%.
On the surface: steady and solid consumer momentum.
Under the hood: a rising share of sales growth is being “paid for” by inflation.
Details in the 🧵
#EconSky
On the surface: steady and solid consumer momentum.
Under the hood: a rising share of sales growth is being “paid for” by inflation.
Details in the 🧵
#EconSky
August 15, 2025 at 3:04 PM
July retail sales came in a tad lighter than expected at 0.5% m/m (consensus 0.6%) but June was revised up to 0.9% from 0.6%.
On the surface: steady and solid consumer momentum.
Under the hood: a rising share of sales growth is being “paid for” by inflation.
Details in the 🧵
#EconSky
On the surface: steady and solid consumer momentum.
Under the hood: a rising share of sales growth is being “paid for” by inflation.
Details in the 🧵
#EconSky
Congrats to EJ Antoni on his new role leading the BLS
August 11, 2025 at 10:53 PM
Congrats to EJ Antoni on his new role leading the BLS
Heads of agencies like the BEA and BLS are indeed political appointees, but the boots on the ground?
Career civil servants committed to rigorous and well-documented methodologies.
Their work anchors every key economic indicator.
A short 🧵
#EconSky
Career civil servants committed to rigorous and well-documented methodologies.
Their work anchors every key economic indicator.
A short 🧵
#EconSky
August 7, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Heads of agencies like the BEA and BLS are indeed political appointees, but the boots on the ground?
Career civil servants committed to rigorous and well-documented methodologies.
Their work anchors every key economic indicator.
A short 🧵
#EconSky
Career civil servants committed to rigorous and well-documented methodologies.
Their work anchors every key economic indicator.
A short 🧵
#EconSky
The regime change appears to be underway
August 1, 2025 at 7:35 PM
The regime change appears to be underway
One of the big surprises in today's jobs report was the contraction in government payrolls.
The government sector lost -10k jobs, thanks to a -14k decline in Federal workers (non-USPS).
This shouldn't have been a big surprise, but it was to consensus economists...
A quick 🧵
#EconSky
The government sector lost -10k jobs, thanks to a -14k decline in Federal workers (non-USPS).
This shouldn't have been a big surprise, but it was to consensus economists...
A quick 🧵
#EconSky
August 1, 2025 at 5:38 PM
One of the big surprises in today's jobs report was the contraction in government payrolls.
The government sector lost -10k jobs, thanks to a -14k decline in Federal workers (non-USPS).
This shouldn't have been a big surprise, but it was to consensus economists...
A quick 🧵
#EconSky
The government sector lost -10k jobs, thanks to a -14k decline in Federal workers (non-USPS).
This shouldn't have been a big surprise, but it was to consensus economists...
A quick 🧵
#EconSky
Not a pretty jobs report today...
I think this one chart sums up what's wrong with anyone pointing to unemployment as a sign the labor market is "solid."
A lot to unpack in the 🧵
#EconSky
I think this one chart sums up what's wrong with anyone pointing to unemployment as a sign the labor market is "solid."
A lot to unpack in the 🧵
#EconSky
August 1, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Not a pretty jobs report today...
I think this one chart sums up what's wrong with anyone pointing to unemployment as a sign the labor market is "solid."
A lot to unpack in the 🧵
#EconSky
I think this one chart sums up what's wrong with anyone pointing to unemployment as a sign the labor market is "solid."
A lot to unpack in the 🧵
#EconSky
Let's check back in on the Fed Funds Futures market...
Apparently, the market doesn't agree with Powell's assessment that the labor market is "solid."
#EconSky
Apparently, the market doesn't agree with Powell's assessment that the labor market is "solid."
#EconSky
August 1, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Let's check back in on the Fed Funds Futures market...
Apparently, the market doesn't agree with Powell's assessment that the labor market is "solid."
#EconSky
Apparently, the market doesn't agree with Powell's assessment that the labor market is "solid."
#EconSky
Challenger released its July job cuts report this morning and it showed a 139% y/y gain.
While I usually provide context to downplay eye-popping figures, in this case the y/y figure isn't too far off from how elevated job cuts are vs their pre-COVID norm: 98%
Details in the 🧵
#EconSky
While I usually provide context to downplay eye-popping figures, in this case the y/y figure isn't too far off from how elevated job cuts are vs their pre-COVID norm: 98%
Details in the 🧵
#EconSky
July 31, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Challenger released its July job cuts report this morning and it showed a 139% y/y gain.
While I usually provide context to downplay eye-popping figures, in this case the y/y figure isn't too far off from how elevated job cuts are vs their pre-COVID norm: 98%
Details in the 🧵
#EconSky
While I usually provide context to downplay eye-popping figures, in this case the y/y figure isn't too far off from how elevated job cuts are vs their pre-COVID norm: 98%
Details in the 🧵
#EconSky