Peter McLeod
@mcleodp.bsky.social
Opinion polls and focus groups, UK and elsewhere.
This is a really interesting analysis but I don't think it's quite the debunking of Labour's strategy that it claims to be. The premise is that strategists believe people who've shifted Lab->Reform since GE24 have different characteristics in marginal constituencies than elsewhere.
A month ago I looked at what I called Labour's midlife crisis- an obsession with chasing socially conservative Reform-curious voters and ignoring groups of disaffected voters with social attitudes much closer to Labour voters. But some people thought there was method in their madness. Was there? 1/n
November 12, 2025 at 4:39 PM
This is a really interesting analysis but I don't think it's quite the debunking of Labour's strategy that it claims to be. The premise is that strategists believe people who've shifted Lab->Reform since GE24 have different characteristics in marginal constituencies than elsewhere.
This is good. Shows humour working at 2 levels: 1) a signal that you're smart, confident, charismatic and authentic; 2) a tool you can use to launch attacks without seeming mean, and divert without seeming slippery.
I had enormous fun writing this piece over the half term break for @thetimes.com Why humour is the superpower of politics. Featuring polling from @focaldata.bsky.social and @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social
Why we should pay more attention to political humour @jameskanag.bsky.social
www.thetimes.com/article/8bf3...
www.thetimes.com/article/8bf3...
October 31, 2025 at 1:10 PM
This is good. Shows humour working at 2 levels: 1) a signal that you're smart, confident, charismatic and authentic; 2) a tool you can use to launch attacks without seeming mean, and divert without seeming slippery.
There are many, many ways of dressing up your "the voters are stupid" point of view, and this is among the more creative, but it's still that.
I’ve been thinking a lot about a new kind of polling I’d like to see. We have polling that measures public opinion, which is obviously important, but I’d love to see a little more empirical work on public knowledge: what do voters know about politics and policy?
October 29, 2025 at 9:58 PM
There are many, many ways of dressing up your "the voters are stupid" point of view, and this is among the more creative, but it's still that.
This is what happens when you think you're Gandalf but you're actually Saruman. NB we also know who Sauron is here (he controls the palantiri).
Elon Musk: "It is time for the English to ally with the hard men, like Tommy Robinson, and fight for their survival or they shall surely all die" 29th October 2025. 2 million views in its first hour.
October 29, 2025 at 12:17 PM
This is what happens when you think you're Gandalf but you're actually Saruman. NB we also know who Sauron is here (he controls the palantiri).
Horrifying to learn that I was born within 4 days of RJ.
The chances that Robert Jenrick *literally* went to "more than a few football matches in the away end" at Villa Park *in the 1980s* (ie, before his 8th birthday on 8.1.1990) are vanishingly small to non-existent. (He may have been in the away end at Villa Park as a child or teenager in the 1990s)
October 18, 2025 at 10:18 AM
Horrifying to learn that I was born within 4 days of RJ.
Hold Sway polling for the TUC here!
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Wealth tax needed to help working people and avoid threat from Reform, says union chief
Exclusive: Paul Novak says Rachel Reeves should ‘stay the course’ on plans for investment
www.theguardian.com
September 4, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Hold Sway polling for the TUC here!
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Feels like a headline from... 2017? 2019 at latest?
Class no longer main dividing line in UK politics, survey shows
Class no longer main dividing line in UK politics, survey shows
Age and education now bigger indicators, according to study, which also shows record support for electoral reform
Age and education have displaced class as the main demographic dividing line in British politics, according to a leading study on trends in public views.
The British Social Attitudes survey, which has run annually since 1983, found that traditional class-based support for parties had diminished. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
June 25, 2025 at 8:48 AM
Feels like a headline from... 2017? 2019 at latest?
New data from me, for @tuc.org.uk, on tax. Overall support for several measures inc. a 2% wealth tax, notably shared by 2024 "hero" switchers and with Lab24 now considering Reform.
Voters overwhelmingly back tax on wealthy to protect public services
www.mirror.co.uk/news/politic...
www.mirror.co.uk/news/politic...
Voters overwhelmingly back tax on wealthy to protect public services
A poll commissioned by the Trades Union Congress (TUC), found the public support tax increases on the wealthy and big businesses by a margin of almost two to one - 58% to 28%
www.mirror.co.uk
June 8, 2025 at 11:12 AM
New data from me, for @tuc.org.uk, on tax. Overall support for several measures inc. a 2% wealth tax, notably shared by 2024 "hero" switchers and with Lab24 now considering Reform.
Am at a handball festival in western Norway. Couple of c. 10 yr old boys just walked by towing a big portable speaker, pumping out Gangsta's Paradise.
Related-ish point. My sample size here is purely my eldest two and their friends: but one thing I’m really interested in is how streaming means that young people listen to a lot more ‘older’ music than they used to. They’ll happily listen to something released in 2025 then something from 1995.
June 8, 2025 at 11:06 AM
Am at a handball festival in western Norway. Couple of c. 10 yr old boys just walked by towing a big portable speaker, pumping out Gangsta's Paradise.
One of the weirder bits of the ERB debate is opposition parties claiming it amounts to a crackdown on pub banter. (Needless to say?), voters find this an odd line of argument to take. Daily Mirror story on Hold Sway poll findings for the TUC here: www.mirror.co.uk/news/politic...
Tories accused of 'insulting' voters with desperate pub banter claims
Shadow Business Secretary Andrew Griffith claimed vital legislation to keep employees safe from being harassed by abusive customers was an attempt to 'ban banter'
www.mirror.co.uk
May 13, 2025 at 10:45 AM
One of the weirder bits of the ERB debate is opposition parties claiming it amounts to a crackdown on pub banter. (Needless to say?), voters find this an odd line of argument to take. Daily Mirror story on Hold Sway poll findings for the TUC here: www.mirror.co.uk/news/politic...
Reform on 27% in this More in Common poll. On these figures that means a little over 3% of the electorate are Lab24->Ref25 voters, or in other words, about 10% of Labour's voters at the GE are now with Reform. Not insignificant.
May 10, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Reform on 27% in this More in Common poll. On these figures that means a little over 3% of the electorate are Lab24->Ref25 voters, or in other words, about 10% of Labour's voters at the GE are now with Reform. Not insignificant.
Wouldn't qualify myself as a music dork but would nominate Random Access Memories, think it's 16 years after Homework.
here's a fun game if you're a music dork: what is the best album released by a music act at least 15 years after its debut album?
May 1, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Wouldn't qualify myself as a music dork but would nominate Random Access Memories, think it's 16 years after Homework.
Reposted by Peter McLeod
Polling by me for the TUC covered here by @jessicaelgot.bsky.social.
www.theguardian.com/law/2025/apr...
www.theguardian.com/law/2025/apr...
Employment rights bill ‘improves Labour’s favourability among voters’
Polling for TUC suggests measures could lure voters back from Reform, Greens or independents, but finds low awareness
www.theguardian.com
April 29, 2025 at 8:57 AM
Polling by me for the TUC covered here by @jessicaelgot.bsky.social.
www.theguardian.com/law/2025/apr...
www.theguardian.com/law/2025/apr...
Substantial piece of work from Steve and team.
NEW: Who are the voters Labour risks losing to Reform?
How might Lab unite them with the rest of its election winning coalition? How might Reform win them over?
Some big new research out today with @persuasionuk.bsky.social as featured by @greenmirandahere.bsky.social in today's FT 🧵👇
How might Lab unite them with the rest of its election winning coalition? How might Reform win them over?
Some big new research out today with @persuasionuk.bsky.social as featured by @greenmirandahere.bsky.social in today's FT 🧵👇
Getting to know 'Reform curious Labour voters'
exploring the attitudes, demography and values of Reform curious Labour voters and the coalitional dilemmas they lose
persuasionuk.org
April 29, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Substantial piece of work from Steve and team.
Polling by me for the TUC covered here by @jessicaelgot.bsky.social.
www.theguardian.com/law/2025/apr...
www.theguardian.com/law/2025/apr...
Employment rights bill ‘improves Labour’s favourability among voters’
Polling for TUC suggests measures could lure voters back from Reform, Greens or independents, but finds low awareness
www.theguardian.com
April 29, 2025 at 8:57 AM
Polling by me for the TUC covered here by @jessicaelgot.bsky.social.
www.theguardian.com/law/2025/apr...
www.theguardian.com/law/2025/apr...
"...but that's not important right now."
April 2, 2025 at 9:40 PM
"...but that's not important right now."
Think I've got to the bottom of it.
March 31, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Think I've got to the bottom of it.
You can try all you like but you'll never beat "hang in there ladies".
When Turkey's courts ban Erdogan's frontrunning Presidential opponent, the liberal mind rebels and rejects forthwith Erdogan's argument that the law is the law. When France's courts do they same, the liberal mind rejoices & parrots the law is the law. Mind-boggling hypocrisy!
March 31, 2025 at 4:26 PM
You can try all you like but you'll never beat "hang in there ladies".
IMO it's underrated just how weak these guys are.
Musk: I mean, have you Tim Walz, who is a huge jerk, running on stage with the Tesla stock price.. What an evil thing to do. What a creep, what a jerk. Like who derives joy from that?
March 29, 2025 at 3:49 PM
IMO it's underrated just how weak these guys are.
Magnificent new meme template just dropped.
Jennie showed more remorse than many other MPs have shown in the past when being disciplined by their party whip
March 20, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Magnificent new meme template just dropped.
Big move by the TUC (and a little writeup of some groups I did for them recently).
Britain’s biggest unions call for much closer UK-EU ties amid ‘volatile’ global economy
Britain’s biggest unions call for much closer UK-EU ties amid ‘volatile’ global economy
Exclusive: union umbrella body calls for new cooperation agreement ahead of Keir Starmer’s reset talks with Brussels
The UK should forge much closer ties with Europe amid an increasingly “volatile and unpredictable” global economy, Britain’s biggest…
www.theguardian.com
March 7, 2025 at 6:52 PM
Big move by the TUC (and a little writeup of some groups I did for them recently).
Quote with a photo of a bridge from your gallery.
January 27, 2025 at 8:54 AM
Quote with a photo of a bridge from your gallery.
Fair enough but if anything he'll be glad of missing that Q&A.
November 18, 2024 at 1:45 PM
Fair enough but if anything he'll be glad of missing that Q&A.