Peter McLeod
@mcleodp.bsky.social
Opinion polls and focus groups, UK and elsewhere.
I suppose Labour could raise taxes and spend more on public services, might be an idea.
November 13, 2025 at 7:27 PM
I suppose Labour could raise taxes and spend more on public services, might be an idea.
Like I said it deserves a deeper dive, but one thought: if the remaining Tories are never-Farage, maybe Labour should try to win them.
November 12, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Like I said it deserves a deeper dive, but one thought: if the remaining Tories are never-Farage, maybe Labour should try to win them.
It is quite a big if, and deserves a deeper look, but: would you rule out a voter who moved Con->Ref either before or since GE24 going back to the Tories if it helped beat Labour? I would not.
November 12, 2025 at 5:49 PM
It is quite a big if, and deserves a deeper look, but: would you rule out a voter who moved Con->Ref either before or since GE24 going back to the Tories if it helped beat Labour? I would not.
The single biggest vote shift from GE19 to 24 was Tory->Reform. Current polls show big numbers still shifting across. But these are people who voted Tory in 2019 and/or 24, and definitely could do again!
November 12, 2025 at 5:39 PM
The single biggest vote shift from GE19 to 24 was Tory->Reform. Current polls show big numbers still shifting across. But these are people who voted Tory in 2019 and/or 24, and definitely could do again!
Digging into tactical voting on the right specifically would be a really interesting project; my point is based on a) voting is way more volatile than it used to be (Fieldhouse et al); b) party ID is way down; c) a left-only strategy would encourage RW tactical voting against Labour.
November 12, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Digging into tactical voting on the right specifically would be a really interesting project; my point is based on a) voting is way more volatile than it used to be (Fieldhouse et al); b) party ID is way down; c) a left-only strategy would encourage RW tactical voting against Labour.
Lab->Reform voters have a lot in common with other Lab24 voters on economics. Another example is environment/low-carbon economy (Persuasion UK published good stuff on this in Spring).
November 12, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Lab->Reform voters have a lot in common with other Lab24 voters on economics. Another example is environment/low-carbon economy (Persuasion UK published good stuff on this in Spring).
They're really hard to win back from Reform especially. It's also really hard to imagine a winning coalition without at least some of them! But also: it's a long time until campaign season.
November 12, 2025 at 5:21 PM
They're really hard to win back from Reform especially. It's also really hard to imagine a winning coalition without at least some of them! But also: it's a long time until campaign season.
Thanks, v generous!
November 12, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Thanks, v generous!
None of this is to say that they're getting everything right: obviously the polls attest to that. The broad but shallow coalition of 2024 presents really difficult challenges. Labour will need to win voters back from other progressive parties to be successful. But giving up on the right won't work.
November 12, 2025 at 4:39 PM
None of this is to say that they're getting everything right: obviously the polls attest to that. The broad but shallow coalition of 2024 presents really difficult challenges. Labour will need to win voters back from other progressive parties to be successful. But giving up on the right won't work.
Third problem, and to me this is the crux: Labour is very unlikely to win without getting some voters back over from the right. The right block is bigger than the left at current polling averages. Voters are prepared to be tactical, and if both sides vote efficiently, the right wins.
November 12, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Third problem, and to me this is the crux: Labour is very unlikely to win without getting some voters back over from the right. The right block is bigger than the left at current polling averages. Voters are prepared to be tactical, and if both sides vote efficiently, the right wins.
Second problem: voting isn't determined by social attitudes only, and even just looking at these graphs you'll see that Lab-Ref voters as a whole are further left on economics than people who stuck with Labour. Surely not unrealistic that some could be won back.
November 12, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Second problem: voting isn't determined by social attitudes only, and even just looking at these graphs you'll see that Lab-Ref voters as a whole are further left on economics than people who stuck with Labour. Surely not unrealistic that some could be won back.
That group is now split between Labour, Reform and other destinations that include the Tories, Lib Dems, non-voting and don't know. It's misleading to suggest the sole focus is Lab-Reform, or that the characteristics of Lab-Reform voters in specific constituencies are what determines the strategy.
November 12, 2025 at 4:39 PM
That group is now split between Labour, Reform and other destinations that include the Tories, Lib Dems, non-voting and don't know. It's misleading to suggest the sole focus is Lab-Reform, or that the characteristics of Lab-Reform voters in specific constituencies are what determines the strategy.
There are a number of problems here. The first is that, as has been reported time and time again in the media, Labour strategists' main focus before, during and after the election has been "hero" Tory to Labour switchers.
November 12, 2025 at 4:39 PM
There are a number of problems here. The first is that, as has been reported time and time again in the media, Labour strategists' main focus before, during and after the election has been "hero" Tory to Labour switchers.
The larger claim behind that one is that strategists' main focus is Lab->Reform voters, and that this is hopeless because such people hold very different views on social issues than other Lab24 voters.
November 12, 2025 at 4:39 PM
The larger claim behind that one is that strategists' main focus is Lab->Reform voters, and that this is hopeless because such people hold very different views on social issues than other Lab24 voters.
Whoa, just realized that ChatGPT's uncomfortably patronising obsequiousness is modelled on the doors from the Heart of Gold.
November 9, 2025 at 9:30 AM
Whoa, just realized that ChatGPT's uncomfortably patronising obsequiousness is modelled on the doors from the Heart of Gold.
See also: every other home game for the past 18 months?
November 8, 2025 at 3:13 PM
See also: every other home game for the past 18 months?
Tories' supermajority message was consequential!
November 5, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Tories' supermajority message was consequential!
Someone needs to subtitle it "An Office for Ovals"
November 5, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Someone needs to subtitle it "An Office for Ovals"
Any Opposition should surely dream of this kind of cut-through.
October 23, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Any Opposition should surely dream of this kind of cut-through.
Good one to have in the back pocket when someone accuses environmentalists of being "holier than thou".
October 23, 2025 at 12:53 PM
Good one to have in the back pocket when someone accuses environmentalists of being "holier than thou".