Mark Bell
@marksbell.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Minneota, mostly studying nuclear weapons, international security, and US foreign policy. Opinions mine. www.markbell.org
Reposted by Mark Bell
Who called it "Elevate Extraordinary" and not "Gopher Broke"
November 13, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Who called it "Elevate Extraordinary" and not "Gopher Broke"
Reposted by Mark Bell
New Strategic Simplicity podcast - Part Two of a series called "Debating Damage Limitation." Link below:
November 13, 2025 at 6:37 PM
New Strategic Simplicity podcast - Part Two of a series called "Debating Damage Limitation." Link below:
Reposted by Mark Bell
The new book... exists!!! Got my author copies in the mail today! Looks quite readable! Spelled my name right on the cover, even!!!
harpercollins.com/products/the-most-awful-responsibility-alex-wellerstein
harpercollins.com/products/the-most-awful-responsibility-alex-wellerstein
November 12, 2025 at 3:42 PM
The new book... exists!!! Got my author copies in the mail today! Looks quite readable! Spelled my name right on the cover, even!!!
harpercollins.com/products/the-most-awful-responsibility-alex-wellerstein
harpercollins.com/products/the-most-awful-responsibility-alex-wellerstein
Reposted by Mark Bell
Professor Mark Bell @marksbell.bsky.social discusses the confusion caused by Trump's recent statement on nuclear testing and what shift it could signal in policy in @startribune.com article.
www.startribune.com/trump-admini...
www.startribune.com/trump-admini...
Rash: Trump’s ‘alarming’ and ‘incoherent’ stand on nuclear testing
Last week, Trump took to Truth Social to call for the resumption of nuclear weapon detonation tests, which the U.S. hasn’t conducted since 1992, John Rash writes.
www.startribune.com
November 7, 2025 at 3:57 PM
Professor Mark Bell @marksbell.bsky.social discusses the confusion caused by Trump's recent statement on nuclear testing and what shift it could signal in policy in @startribune.com article.
www.startribune.com/trump-admini...
www.startribune.com/trump-admini...
Reposted by Mark Bell
Hi folks! A few thoughts on this essay, and the questions that we *should* be asking, rather than the ones this Army officer seems inclined to answer. I haven’t done a CMR thread in a while so I’m overdue. 🧵
Hard to imagine a more sinister & dangerous argument, couched in euphemism & high-minded language. "This essay does not argue liberalism will collapse, only that [US] military officers should be intellectually (and spiritually) prepared for alternatives." warontherocks.com/2025/10/the-...
The American Military Officer After Liberalism
Across academia, government, and Silicon Valley, on social media, and in leading journals, intellectuals and political leaders are openly debating what
warontherocks.com
October 31, 2025 at 3:04 AM
Hi folks! A few thoughts on this essay, and the questions that we *should* be asking, rather than the ones this Army officer seems inclined to answer. I haven’t done a CMR thread in a while so I’m overdue. 🧵
Reposted by Mark Bell
1. Crises, acquisitions, and policy all suggest that conventional weapons are taking on a larger role deterring nuclear use. My new article in @intsecurity.bsky.social examines why US officials would consider conventional options when they have nuclear options available and how they might use them.
October 28, 2025 at 9:48 PM
1. Crises, acquisitions, and policy all suggest that conventional weapons are taking on a larger role deterring nuclear use. My new article in @intsecurity.bsky.social examines why US officials would consider conventional options when they have nuclear options available and how they might use them.
Reposted by Mark Bell
I'm pleased to share my open access article in International Security on the role of allies in U.S. space power.
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
October 28, 2025 at 4:31 PM
I'm pleased to share my open access article in International Security on the role of allies in U.S. space power.
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
Reposted by Mark Bell
Foreign Relations of the United States, 1989–1992, Volume XXXI, START I, 1989–1991 is out today!
Huge congratulations to @jamesgrahamwilson.bsky.social and the rest of the team at the State Department's Office of the Historian. history.state.gov/historicaldo...
Huge congratulations to @jamesgrahamwilson.bsky.social and the rest of the team at the State Department's Office of the Historian. history.state.gov/historicaldo...
September 30, 2025 at 2:54 PM
Foreign Relations of the United States, 1989–1992, Volume XXXI, START I, 1989–1991 is out today!
Huge congratulations to @jamesgrahamwilson.bsky.social and the rest of the team at the State Department's Office of the Historian. history.state.gov/historicaldo...
Huge congratulations to @jamesgrahamwilson.bsky.social and the rest of the team at the State Department's Office of the Historian. history.state.gov/historicaldo...
Reposted by Mark Bell
Thanks @lanoszka.bsky.social for the kind words, and for reminding me to engage in SELF PROMOTION ☝️ Russian ☢️-deployments to Belarus are driven by 🇷🇺 interests: preventing interference in 🇧🇾 and using them as a lever against NATO. At least, that is what I deduce from the limited evidence available.
A timely new article by @alexsorg.bsky.social looks at the reasons for why Russia might have positioned nuclear weapons in Belarus. As he puts it, it is "potentially the first new foreign nuclear-weapons deployment by any state since 1974."
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Nuclear Belarus: explaining Russian security guarantees
In 2022, Russia announced its plans to deploy nuclear weapons to Belarus, which would mark the first such deployment in an allied state since the Soviet Union’s collapse. Deploying nuclear weapons ...
www.tandfonline.com
September 10, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Thanks @lanoszka.bsky.social for the kind words, and for reminding me to engage in SELF PROMOTION ☝️ Russian ☢️-deployments to Belarus are driven by 🇷🇺 interests: preventing interference in 🇧🇾 and using them as a lever against NATO. At least, that is what I deduce from the limited evidence available.
Reposted by Mark Bell
🚨 How & why do nuclear delivery vehicles proliferate? My article on the spread of delivery vehicles is out at Security Studies! #OpenAccess
It explains:
- Why the NPT allows nuclear delivery vehicles to spread
- How did India acquire its #nuclear delivery technology
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
It explains:
- Why the NPT allows nuclear delivery vehicles to spread
- How did India acquire its #nuclear delivery technology
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Explaining the Proliferation of Nuclear Delivery Vehicles
How and why do nuclear delivery vehicles proliferate? This article identifies a permissive environment in the nonproliferation regime shaped by three drivers for proliferation: First, the multipurp...
tandfonline.com
September 5, 2025 at 1:56 PM
🚨 How & why do nuclear delivery vehicles proliferate? My article on the spread of delivery vehicles is out at Security Studies! #OpenAccess
It explains:
- Why the NPT allows nuclear delivery vehicles to spread
- How did India acquire its #nuclear delivery technology
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
It explains:
- Why the NPT allows nuclear delivery vehicles to spread
- How did India acquire its #nuclear delivery technology
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Mark Bell
TL;DR of nukes at China's military parade yesterday:
🤔 DF-61 - new ICBM??
🕳️ DF-31BJ - silo loader?
✈️ air-launched ballistic missile?
🔺 entire nuclear triad displayed for first time
Read our @scientistsorg.bsky.social team's full analysis below:
🤔 DF-61 - new ICBM??
🕳️ DF-31BJ - silo loader?
✈️ air-launched ballistic missile?
🔺 entire nuclear triad displayed for first time
Read our @scientistsorg.bsky.social team's full analysis below:
Nuclear Weapons At China's 2025 Victory Day Parade - Federation of American Scientists
This buildup appears to contradict China's obligations under the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and could well stimulate nuclear buildups in the United States and India.
fas.org
September 4, 2025 at 1:48 PM
TL;DR of nukes at China's military parade yesterday:
🤔 DF-61 - new ICBM??
🕳️ DF-31BJ - silo loader?
✈️ air-launched ballistic missile?
🔺 entire nuclear triad displayed for first time
Read our @scientistsorg.bsky.social team's full analysis below:
🤔 DF-61 - new ICBM??
🕳️ DF-31BJ - silo loader?
✈️ air-launched ballistic missile?
🔺 entire nuclear triad displayed for first time
Read our @scientistsorg.bsky.social team's full analysis below:
Reposted by Mark Bell
🚨 It’s publication day!
THE ART OF COERCION is finally out.
When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough.
Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”
shorturl.at/qa4T5
THE ART OF COERCION is finally out.
When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough.
Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”
shorturl.at/qa4T5
The Art of Coercion by Reid B. C. Pauly | Paperback | Cornell University Press
The Art of Coercion presents a fresh explanation for the success—and failure—of coercive demands in international politics.Strong states are surprisingly bad at coercion. History shows they prevail...
www.cornellpress.cornell.edu
August 15, 2025 at 3:34 PM
🚨 It’s publication day!
THE ART OF COERCION is finally out.
When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough.
Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”
shorturl.at/qa4T5
THE ART OF COERCION is finally out.
When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough.
Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”
shorturl.at/qa4T5
Reposted by Mark Bell
Why did Margaret Thatcher oppose German reunification 35 years ago? Yes, she disliked the Germans - but her deeper fear was socialism creeping into Britain through the Brussels backdoor, driven by an increasingly dominant Germany. Probably my best research. Let me know if you’d like a copy.
Britain's Opposition to German Reunification, 1989–1990: The Fine Line between Strategic, Political, and Personal Factors
Great Britain had no interest in a reunified Germany, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher told Mikhail Gorbachev, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU), in a sec...
direct.mit.edu
July 7, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Why did Margaret Thatcher oppose German reunification 35 years ago? Yes, she disliked the Germans - but her deeper fear was socialism creeping into Britain through the Brussels backdoor, driven by an increasingly dominant Germany. Probably my best research. Let me know if you’d like a copy.
Reposted by Mark Bell
Vipin and I wrote a new piece for Foreign Affairs, called "How to Survive the New Nuclear Age". Gift link below.
June 24, 2025 at 7:40 PM
Vipin and I wrote a new piece for Foreign Affairs, called "How to Survive the New Nuclear Age". Gift link below.
Reposted by Mark Bell
Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17
June 23, 2025 at 1:27 AM
Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17
Reposted by Mark Bell
Melissa Hortman, who was assassinated last night, was the Speaker of the Minnesota House in the 2023-2024 session, when Democrats ran the state government.
That means she had a leading role in shepherding the many landmark reforms that Dems adopted in that period—an important legacy. Brief 🧵.
That means she had a leading role in shepherding the many landmark reforms that Dems adopted in that period—an important legacy. Brief 🧵.
June 14, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Melissa Hortman, who was assassinated last night, was the Speaker of the Minnesota House in the 2023-2024 session, when Democrats ran the state government.
That means she had a leading role in shepherding the many landmark reforms that Dems adopted in that period—an important legacy. Brief 🧵.
That means she had a leading role in shepherding the many landmark reforms that Dems adopted in that period—an important legacy. Brief 🧵.
Reposted by Mark Bell
The Israelis are calling this a "preemptive" strike. Whether you agree or disagree with this attack, these are not - from what we know tonight - "preemptive" strikes. The Israelis are using that word for a reason. Read on. /1
Netanyahu in video: "We struck at the heart of Iran's nuclear enrichment program. We struck at the heart of Iran's nuclear weaponization program. We targeted Iran's main enrichment facility in Natanz." 1/2
June 13, 2025 at 1:16 AM
The Israelis are calling this a "preemptive" strike. Whether you agree or disagree with this attack, these are not - from what we know tonight - "preemptive" strikes. The Israelis are using that word for a reason. Read on. /1
Reposted by Mark Bell
🚨The UK Nuclear Deterrence Network's Deterrence Futures Fellowship is now open for applications. Join the conversation on the evolving nature of deterrence in today's complex security landscape. For more details visit our website: bit.ly/4mWPE2F
June 11, 2025 at 4:08 PM
🚨The UK Nuclear Deterrence Network's Deterrence Futures Fellowship is now open for applications. Join the conversation on the evolving nature of deterrence in today's complex security landscape. For more details visit our website: bit.ly/4mWPE2F
Reposted by Mark Bell
Without the U.S. nuclear backstop, Europe would be best served by prioritizing nonproliferation and credible deterrence—and accepting a level of strategic instability in Europe-Russian relations, write @marksbell.bsky.social and @frhoffmann.bsky.social.
Europe’s Nuclear Trilemma
The difficult and dangerous options for post-American deterrence.
www.foreignaffairs.com
June 4, 2025 at 10:29 PM
Without the U.S. nuclear backstop, Europe would be best served by prioritizing nonproliferation and credible deterrence—and accepting a level of strategic instability in Europe-Russian relations, write @marksbell.bsky.social and @frhoffmann.bsky.social.
Reposted by Mark Bell
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists republished my remembrance of Dick Garwin. thebulletin.org/2025/05/h-bo...
H-bomb creator Richard Garwin was a giant in science, technology, and policy
Matt Bunn, a Harvard nuclear security expert, recalls how he got to know Garwin as a tireless and effective participant in dialogues with scientists and officials in Russia, China, India, and elsewher...
thebulletin.org
May 23, 2025 at 5:43 PM
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists republished my remembrance of Dick Garwin. thebulletin.org/2025/05/h-bo...
Reposted by Mark Bell
Very pleased to have this research note in ISQ! It finds that unconditional signals of U.S. abandonment, and to a lesser extent conditional U.S. threats of abandonment and increased alliance burden-sharing, modestly increase support for nuclear weapons. But effect sizes are fairly small overall.
@brianblankenship.bsky.social tests whether U.S. signals of abandonment and efforts to encourage allied burden-sharing using threats of abandonment increase support for nuclear weapons acquisition, using a survey of foreign policy elites from 16 European NATO members.
tinyurl.com/sqaf039
tinyurl.com/sqaf039
Do Alliance Abandonment and Coercion Increase Support for Nuclear Weapons? An Elite Survey in NATO
Abstract. Alliances are central to U.S. nuclear nonproliferation efforts. Many scholars suggest that actions which might undermine allies’ faith in or depe
tinyurl.com
May 12, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Very pleased to have this research note in ISQ! It finds that unconditional signals of U.S. abandonment, and to a lesser extent conditional U.S. threats of abandonment and increased alliance burden-sharing, modestly increase support for nuclear weapons. But effect sizes are fairly small overall.
Reposted by Mark Bell
Short thread (hopefully in plain English) on the nuclear deterrence dynamics in the India-Pakistan relationship and where this goes if escalation continues. <1>
May 10, 2025 at 1:52 AM
Short thread (hopefully in plain English) on the nuclear deterrence dynamics in the India-Pakistan relationship and where this goes if escalation continues. <1>
Reposted by Mark Bell
Based on what I've seen credibly reported over the last 2-3 hours, it is fair to now call this a full-scale war.
Another threshold of escalation crumbles: India apparently has started air operations inside Pakistan. (This was the suggestion with the SEAD strikes yesterday.)
May 10, 2025 at 1:13 AM
Based on what I've seen credibly reported over the last 2-3 hours, it is fair to now call this a full-scale war.