Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
@macromau.bsky.social
Research economist at the Bank of England. Opinions are mine alone, RT and likes are inscrutable!
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
In today’s Bank Underground post, Tuli Saha (BoE) and Alexandra Varadi (BoE) explore how household debt shapes the transmission of interest rates to spending and mortgage defaults. 🔗 bankunderground.co.uk/2025/11/20/t...
November 21, 2025 at 1:17 PM
In today’s Bank Underground post, Tuli Saha (BoE) and Alexandra Varadi (BoE) explore how household debt shapes the transmission of interest rates to spending and mortgage defaults. 🔗 bankunderground.co.uk/2025/11/20/t...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Home Office: How dare people say we are acting like the far-right?
Also the Home Office: These far-right graphics look great, let's copy them.
Also the Home Office: These far-right graphics look great, let's copy them.
November 21, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Home Office: How dare people say we are acting like the far-right?
Also the Home Office: These far-right graphics look great, let's copy them.
Also the Home Office: These far-right graphics look great, let's copy them.
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
The reality that I think increasingly dawns is that none of A, B or C are tenable answers. Which unfortunately suggests it is
D) To signal hostility in the hope that people with anti-migration views will see this as them being 'tough'.
D) To signal hostility in the hope that people with anti-migration views will see this as them being 'tough'.
Mahmood/government should say explain *objective* of increasing time to settlement for 15 years for care workers who arrived 2022-24
Is it
A) to get them to leave? Why?
B) to save money? Then why not just restrict benefits?
C) to "encourage integration"? How? Will do opposite.
Is it
A) to get them to leave? Why?
B) to save money? Then why not just restrict benefits?
C) to "encourage integration"? How? Will do opposite.
15 years for people in medium skilled jobs and care workers too. I believe this goes down to 10 years if they earn over £50,270. Someone in a high skilled job earning over that qualifies in 5 years.
November 21, 2025 at 3:39 PM
The reality that I think increasingly dawns is that none of A, B or C are tenable answers. Which unfortunately suggests it is
D) To signal hostility in the hope that people with anti-migration views will see this as them being 'tough'.
D) To signal hostility in the hope that people with anti-migration views will see this as them being 'tough'.
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Half (49.7%) of people of colour are migrants (2021 Census data for England & Wales)
54% of Asian British
51% of Black British
18% of 'Mixed'
68% of 'Other'
Racism affects both the 5.5 million ethnic minorities who were born in Britain and the 5.4 million ethnic minorities who were born elsewhere
54% of Asian British
51% of Black British
18% of 'Mixed'
68% of 'Other'
Racism affects both the 5.5 million ethnic minorities who were born in Britain and the 5.4 million ethnic minorities who were born elsewhere
November 21, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Half (49.7%) of people of colour are migrants (2021 Census data for England & Wales)
54% of Asian British
51% of Black British
18% of 'Mixed'
68% of 'Other'
Racism affects both the 5.5 million ethnic minorities who were born in Britain and the 5.4 million ethnic minorities who were born elsewhere
54% of Asian British
51% of Black British
18% of 'Mixed'
68% of 'Other'
Racism affects both the 5.5 million ethnic minorities who were born in Britain and the 5.4 million ethnic minorities who were born elsewhere
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
That is what it looks like, yes. Which should be our starting point for wondering if there is something deeper going on. youngvulgarian.substack.com
November 21, 2025 at 6:05 PM
That is what it looks like, yes. Which should be our starting point for wondering if there is something deeper going on. youngvulgarian.substack.com
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Shabana Mahmood's Indefinite Leave To Remain Culture War
3 years - if you're earning £125k+
15 years - if you're e.g. a nurse, or a teacher
Labour's two tier system which rewards high earners and insults those who work just as hard but don't earn as much - really sad to see Labour fall
3 years - if you're earning £125k+
15 years - if you're e.g. a nurse, or a teacher
Labour's two tier system which rewards high earners and insults those who work just as hard but don't earn as much - really sad to see Labour fall
November 20, 2025 at 10:02 PM
Shabana Mahmood's Indefinite Leave To Remain Culture War
3 years - if you're earning £125k+
15 years - if you're e.g. a nurse, or a teacher
Labour's two tier system which rewards high earners and insults those who work just as hard but don't earn as much - really sad to see Labour fall
3 years - if you're earning £125k+
15 years - if you're e.g. a nurse, or a teacher
Labour's two tier system which rewards high earners and insults those who work just as hard but don't earn as much - really sad to see Labour fall
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
📢 #CallForPapers 📢
Submissions are now welcome for the Bank of England’s 2026 BEAR #conference on “The Interconnected World”
📆 7-8 May 2026 📍 London, Bank of England
📆 Submission deadline: 15 February 2026
👉 Submit here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/events/2026/... (1/4)
Submissions are now welcome for the Bank of England’s 2026 BEAR #conference on “The Interconnected World”
📆 7-8 May 2026 📍 London, Bank of England
📆 Submission deadline: 15 February 2026
👉 Submit here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/events/2026/... (1/4)
Call for papers - Bank of England’s 2026 BEAR conference 'The Interconnected World'
London, 7 and 8 May 2026
www.bankofengland.co.uk
November 19, 2025 at 10:35 AM
📢 #CallForPapers 📢
Submissions are now welcome for the Bank of England’s 2026 BEAR #conference on “The Interconnected World”
📆 7-8 May 2026 📍 London, Bank of England
📆 Submission deadline: 15 February 2026
👉 Submit here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/events/2026/... (1/4)
Submissions are now welcome for the Bank of England’s 2026 BEAR #conference on “The Interconnected World”
📆 7-8 May 2026 📍 London, Bank of England
📆 Submission deadline: 15 February 2026
👉 Submit here: www.bankofengland.co.uk/events/2026/... (1/4)
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Want some good news about the UK economy for once...levels of GDP (and forecasts) keep getting revised up...
November 14, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Want some good news about the UK economy for once...levels of GDP (and forecasts) keep getting revised up...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Insights from Larry Summers
"I observed that half the IQ In world was possessed by women without mentioning they are more than 51 percent of population..."
"I observed that half the IQ In world was possessed by women without mentioning they are more than 51 percent of population..."
November 12, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Insights from Larry Summers
"I observed that half the IQ In world was possessed by women without mentioning they are more than 51 percent of population..."
"I observed that half the IQ In world was possessed by women without mentioning they are more than 51 percent of population..."
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Re-upping this thing I did for the FT last year suggesting how Rachel Reeves could reform the BoE. It's not a budget matter, but since everyone is thinking about what she could do... www.ft.com/content/23d0...
How Rachel Reeves should reform her old employer: the Bank of England
The time is surely ripe for a rethink of some of the strictures governing the central lender
www.ft.com
November 9, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Re-upping this thing I did for the FT last year suggesting how Rachel Reeves could reform the BoE. It's not a budget matter, but since everyone is thinking about what she could do... www.ft.com/content/23d0...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
"Far from draining our welfare system, migrants are supporting the British state’s solvency."
New analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
New analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
November 7, 2025 at 8:17 AM
"Far from draining our welfare system, migrants are supporting the British state’s solvency."
New analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
New analysis by @lgilbert.co
ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
NEW from me:
Political hostility, high visa fees and (in the case of the UK) stagnant incomes are making the UK and US less attractive destinations for top international talent.
That steep decline in the appeal of moving to the US after 2016 is 👀
Political hostility, high visa fees and (in the case of the UK) stagnant incomes are making the UK and US less attractive destinations for top international talent.
That steep decline in the appeal of moving to the US after 2016 is 👀
October 31, 2025 at 2:32 PM
NEW from me:
Political hostility, high visa fees and (in the case of the UK) stagnant incomes are making the UK and US less attractive destinations for top international talent.
That steep decline in the appeal of moving to the US after 2016 is 👀
Political hostility, high visa fees and (in the case of the UK) stagnant incomes are making the UK and US less attractive destinations for top international talent.
That steep decline in the appeal of moving to the US after 2016 is 👀
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
...I agree with JBM that UK is making itself relatively less attractive to high-skill migrants through combination of hostile rhetoric, excessive fees & stupid/unnecessary rules that will disproportionately deter those with options elsewhere. But this just gets current system wrong.
October 31, 2025 at 8:00 AM
...I agree with JBM that UK is making itself relatively less attractive to high-skill migrants through combination of hostile rhetoric, excessive fees & stupid/unnecessary rules that will disproportionately deter those with options elsewhere. But this just gets current system wrong.
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
This is unusually sloppy for @jburnmurdoch.ft.com - uncharacteristically, he doesn't cite *any* data to back up his claims about the outcomes of the UK system.
But we have Home Office/HMRC data on this! Those on skilled work visas earn about 2x UK average..
www.ft.com/content/d70c...
But we have Home Office/HMRC data on this! Those on skilled work visas earn about 2x UK average..
www.ft.com/content/d70c...
October 31, 2025 at 7:40 AM
This is unusually sloppy for @jburnmurdoch.ft.com - uncharacteristically, he doesn't cite *any* data to back up his claims about the outcomes of the UK system.
But we have Home Office/HMRC data on this! Those on skilled work visas earn about 2x UK average..
www.ft.com/content/d70c...
But we have Home Office/HMRC data on this! Those on skilled work visas earn about 2x UK average..
www.ft.com/content/d70c...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
On the one hand: Interesting just how long post-imperial Britain could cling on to its relative economic position. On the other hand: Yikes.
www.ft.com/content/d70c...
www.ft.com/content/d70c...
October 31, 2025 at 8:23 AM
On the one hand: Interesting just how long post-imperial Britain could cling on to its relative economic position. On the other hand: Yikes.
www.ft.com/content/d70c...
www.ft.com/content/d70c...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Net migration to the UK is falling rapidly. But how far will it fall? A new, detailed estimate by @jamesbowes01.bsky.social projects net migration in 2026 will be 70K to 170K.
This will have significant consequences, both economic and political.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
This will have significant consequences, both economic and political.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
October 29, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Net migration to the UK is falling rapidly. But how far will it fall? A new, detailed estimate by @jamesbowes01.bsky.social projects net migration in 2026 will be 70K to 170K.
This will have significant consequences, both economic and political.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
This will have significant consequences, both economic and political.
ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Fed cuts rates by a quarter point.
For the first time in forever, there's a dissent on either side. Miran wants more (sigh, it's Miran). Schmid surprises and says he wanted no change.
Quantitative tightening ended.
For the first time in forever, there's a dissent on either side. Miran wants more (sigh, it's Miran). Schmid surprises and says he wanted no change.
Quantitative tightening ended.
October 29, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Fed cuts rates by a quarter point.
For the first time in forever, there's a dissent on either side. Miran wants more (sigh, it's Miran). Schmid surprises and says he wanted no change.
Quantitative tightening ended.
For the first time in forever, there's a dissent on either side. Miran wants more (sigh, it's Miran). Schmid surprises and says he wanted no change.
Quantitative tightening ended.
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
This is what tolerance of anti-migrant political rhetoric leads to. A surge in racial abuse against nurses and care workers. www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Racist incidents against UK nurses surge by 55%
Royal College of Nursing calls on government to stop using anti-migrant rhetoric, which it says emboldens racist behaviour
www.theguardian.com
October 27, 2025 at 8:53 AM
This is what tolerance of anti-migrant political rhetoric leads to. A surge in racial abuse against nurses and care workers. www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Ed Luce watching democracy die in the United States of America
October 24, 2025 at 6:53 AM
Ed Luce watching democracy die in the United States of America
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Bill Nelson says it's time for the Fed to restart open market operations
October 22, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Bill Nelson says it's time for the Fed to restart open market operations
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
it's important to call things what they are
"mass deportations of legal residents for cultural homogeneity" is an ethnic cleansing policy
"mass deportations of legal residents for cultural homogeneity" is an ethnic cleansing policy
October 22, 2025 at 8:21 AM
it's important to call things what they are
"mass deportations of legal residents for cultural homogeneity" is an ethnic cleansing policy
"mass deportations of legal residents for cultural homogeneity" is an ethnic cleansing policy
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Ah! Good morning, reality. And welcome. We’ve been expecting you…
October 20, 2025 at 6:43 AM
Ah! Good morning, reality. And welcome. We’ve been expecting you…
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
Just ignorant, ahistorical rubbish from Blair.
The average burden of direct taxes (income tax and employee NICs) has barely shifted in two decades. Was 21% of gross incomes in 2004, was 21% last year.
archive.ph/MVNMw
The average burden of direct taxes (income tax and employee NICs) has barely shifted in two decades. Was 21% of gross incomes in 2004, was 21% last year.
archive.ph/MVNMw
October 19, 2025 at 11:31 AM
Just ignorant, ahistorical rubbish from Blair.
The average burden of direct taxes (income tax and employee NICs) has barely shifted in two decades. Was 21% of gross incomes in 2004, was 21% last year.
archive.ph/MVNMw
The average burden of direct taxes (income tax and employee NICs) has barely shifted in two decades. Was 21% of gross incomes in 2004, was 21% last year.
archive.ph/MVNMw
Reposted by Mauricio Salgado-Moreno
This is, in fact, apropos of Reform and *Conservative* proposals to do exactly that for hundreds of thousands of legal migrants with permanent status.
Apropos of nothing, I really do think UK journalists and politicians need some reminding that mass deportation of LEGAL immigrants, particularly those with permanent status, is far more extreme than even Trump's America and would basically place Britain completely on its own among democracies.
October 19, 2025 at 11:39 AM
This is, in fact, apropos of Reform and *Conservative* proposals to do exactly that for hundreds of thousands of legal migrants with permanent status.