Kyle Haynes
@kylehaynes.bsky.social
Political scientist studying security, conflict, bargaining, US foreign policy, etc. Scored on by Geoff Cameron. Personal account. Opinions mine alone.
https://kyle-haynes.weebly.com/
https://kyle-haynes.weebly.com/
The incandescent rage of seeing someone try to dunk on you via quote post with a really stupid take…and then seeing that they have replies turned off.
Face me, coward. I demand satisfaction.
Face me, coward. I demand satisfaction.
January 4, 2026 at 4:07 AM
The incandescent rage of seeing someone try to dunk on you via quote post with a really stupid take…and then seeing that they have replies turned off.
Face me, coward. I demand satisfaction.
Face me, coward. I demand satisfaction.
Gonna see a crucial test of how much Americans innately care about breaking other countries. Opinion turned against GWB in Iraq, but mostly due to US casualties. If Trump just sends Venezuela into chaos and then goes off chasing the next car, acting like none of this ever happened, will anyone care?
Friendly reminder that W's Iraq invasion had 65% bipartisan approval when it started, even with debate about whether or not Saddam Hussein actually had WMDs. So the fact that this can't even crack 60% within the GOP is telling. 60% own-party support would typically kill a policy immediately.
Jan 3 poll of 1,902 U.S. adults (+/-2.8 points)
% who support | oppose the U.S. running Venezuela following the U.S. military's capture of President Nicolás Maduro
U.S. adults 34% | 41%
Democrats 16% | 64%
Independents 26% | 43%
Republicans 60% | 16%
today.yougov.com/topics/polit...
% who support | oppose the U.S. running Venezuela following the U.S. military's capture of President Nicolás Maduro
U.S. adults 34% | 41%
Democrats 16% | 64%
Independents 26% | 43%
Republicans 60% | 16%
today.yougov.com/topics/polit...
January 4, 2026 at 3:16 AM
Gonna see a crucial test of how much Americans innately care about breaking other countries. Opinion turned against GWB in Iraq, but mostly due to US casualties. If Trump just sends Venezuela into chaos and then goes off chasing the next car, acting like none of this ever happened, will anyone care?
I really don’t think they care about next week. They’re getting good headlines today. If US boots aren’t on the ground no one will care when the country descends into chaos. Rubio got revenge, and more importantly Trump got to dominate a perceived adversary. Everything else is peripheral.
“.. There is no evidence that anyone on the Trump team has thought about what will happen tomorrow, or next week, or next year ..
“.. we’re not even 24 hours into this .. Decades later, we’re still dealing with the aftermath in Afghanistan and Iraq.”
fallows.substack.com/p/blind-into...
“.. we’re not even 24 hours into this .. Decades later, we’re still dealing with the aftermath in Afghanistan and Iraq.”
fallows.substack.com/p/blind-into...
January 4, 2026 at 1:36 AM
I really don’t think they care about next week. They’re getting good headlines today. If US boots aren’t on the ground no one will care when the country descends into chaos. Rubio got revenge, and more importantly Trump got to dominate a perceived adversary. Everything else is peripheral.
Military force is very good for killing people and breaking things, and deterring others who might want to kill you or break your things. If you want to effect political change in ways that don’t center on killing people and/or breaking things, it’s extraordinarily limited.
I think one of the underrated dangers is that Russia was - on its terms - quite successful militarily under Putin under 2022, and that convinced them they could pull off what turned out to be a disaster. Similarly the relative 'success' of operations in Iran and Venezuela emboldens the U.S.
The last few years have shown us that Russia does war wrong at basically every conceivable level and yet they are now the model the current SecDef is inspired by.
January 4, 2026 at 1:30 AM
Military force is very good for killing people and breaking things, and deterring others who might want to kill you or break your things. If you want to effect political change in ways that don’t center on killing people and/or breaking things, it’s extraordinarily limited.
BREAKING: Susan Collins (R, ME) has been caucusing with Senate Democrats.
Press call with Chuck Schumer says he has been talking with his caucus "I've been talking to so many members of my caucus today. Everybody is very, very just totally, totally, totally troubled."
January 3, 2026 at 9:45 PM
BREAKING: Susan Collins (R, ME) has been caucusing with Senate Democrats.
Look, if “the country’s military” all backed the VP couping Maduro they wouldn’t have needed to call in the Delta Force to do it. That means there’s a big chunk of the military - probably a majority if Maduro had any chops - that opposed this. That’s…really fucking dangerous for the country.
January 3, 2026 at 8:45 PM
Look, if “the country’s military” all backed the VP couping Maduro they wouldn’t have needed to call in the Delta Force to do it. That means there’s a big chunk of the military - probably a majority if Maduro had any chops - that opposed this. That’s…really fucking dangerous for the country.
Predictable this is being discussed, but broadly speaking the possible outcomes in Venezuela appear to be 1) some form of military coup, civil war, and/or state failure; or 2) regime continuity under VP Rodriguez. None of these outcomes are terribly propitious for new US investment.
And there ya have it…
Officials from top Wall Street firms will be traveling to Venezuela to investigate “investment prospects” of the country. “The trip will feature about 20 officials from the finance, energy and defense sectors.”
Officials from top Wall Street firms will be traveling to Venezuela to investigate “investment prospects” of the country. “The trip will feature about 20 officials from the finance, energy and defense sectors.”
Finance Industry Eyes Investment Opportunities in Venezuela
Some on Wall Street are already considering possible investment opportunities in Venezuela following the capture of Nicolás Maduro, according to Charles Myers, chairman of consulting firm Signum Globa...
www.wsj.com
January 3, 2026 at 8:39 PM
Predictable this is being discussed, but broadly speaking the possible outcomes in Venezuela appear to be 1) some form of military coup, civil war, and/or state failure; or 2) regime continuity under VP Rodriguez. None of these outcomes are terribly propitious for new US investment.
So best I can tell the plan here is to (maybe? hopefully?) collapse the regime through decapitation and then coerce…someone (?) into allowing US oil companies free rein by threatening another “capture” and extradition or more air strikes or tariffs or something. Am I missing anything?
January 3, 2026 at 8:11 PM
So best I can tell the plan here is to (maybe? hopefully?) collapse the regime through decapitation and then coerce…someone (?) into allowing US oil companies free rein by threatening another “capture” and extradition or more air strikes or tariffs or something. Am I missing anything?
Venezuela’s population today is almost exactly the same size as Iraq’s in 2003 (~28m). Ultimately, 300k troops proved insufficient to “run the country.” But I’m sure tomahawks and tariffs will suffice to ensure a good outcome here.
Trump on Venezuela: "We're going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition"
January 3, 2026 at 4:55 PM
Venezuela’s population today is almost exactly the same size as Iraq’s in 2003 (~28m). Ultimately, 300k troops proved insufficient to “run the country.” But I’m sure tomahawks and tariffs will suffice to ensure a good outcome here.
The good news is that militaries in highly personalized dictatorships are notorious for their scrupulous adherence to rules of succession and respect for democratic procedures.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado has called for Edmundo González, who was widely considered to have won last year's presidential election, to take power immediately and be recognised by the military as commander-in-chief.
Follow live updates: ft.trib.al/rFS4VYD
Follow live updates: ft.trib.al/rFS4VYD
January 3, 2026 at 4:18 PM
The good news is that militaries in highly personalized dictatorships are notorious for their scrupulous adherence to rules of succession and respect for democratic procedures.
I regularly point out Trump’s total inability to think even one move down the game tree but somehow this is still shocking.
FOX & FRIENDS: What do you think is next for the Venezuelan people now that you have removed Maduro so he can face American justice?
TRUMP: Well, we're making that decision now. We can't take a chance on letting somebody else run it, just take over where he left off. So we're making that decision
TRUMP: Well, we're making that decision now. We can't take a chance on letting somebody else run it, just take over where he left off. So we're making that decision
January 3, 2026 at 4:13 PM
I regularly point out Trump’s total inability to think even one move down the game tree but somehow this is still shocking.
At its core, this admin is a bunch of vicious ideologues with specific agendas (Miller, Vought, Rubio) and a president who values only the act and appearance of domination. It’s an incredibly symbiotic and dangerous combination given the violence and suffering the ideologues’ agendas entail.
January 3, 2026 at 3:49 PM
At its core, this admin is a bunch of vicious ideologues with specific agendas (Miller, Vought, Rubio) and a president who values only the act and appearance of domination. It’s an incredibly symbiotic and dangerous combination given the violence and suffering the ideologues’ agendas entail.
Maybe worth noting that capturing Maduro is itself wildly illegal
The European Union urged the adherence to international law after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro earlier today.
EU urges respect for international law after US capture of Maduro
“We call for restraint,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said after U.S. operation to fly Maduro out of Venezuela.
www.politico.eu
January 3, 2026 at 1:42 PM
Maybe worth noting that capturing Maduro is itself wildly illegal
Maybe someone should remind GOPers that Ronald Reagan took a very soft line against Noriega because he viewed US federal indictments as meaningless and unenforceable against a sitting foreign head of state.
January 3, 2026 at 1:35 PM
Maybe someone should remind GOPers that Ronald Reagan took a very soft line against Noriega because he viewed US federal indictments as meaningless and unenforceable against a sitting foreign head of state.
The media’s steadfast refusal to treat transparently bad faith actors telling obvious lies accordingly is like 95% of the reason we’re on this mess.
The Bari Weiss hysteria continues. Exactly what in "this piece isn't ready" and "try harder to get comment from the administration" constitutes the death of American journalism? www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
What Bari Weiss Got Right
And what she got wrong
www.theatlantic.com
December 23, 2025 at 7:13 PM
The media’s steadfast refusal to treat transparently bad faith actors telling obvious lies accordingly is like 95% of the reason we’re on this mess.
Even for an administration fundamentally built on lying and prevarication, “Russia remains fully committed to achieving peace in Ukraine” is a shocker
This statement is a sick joke. US foreign policy is a sick joke, being implemented by enemies of truth, freedom & democracy - people driven by personal greed & the opportunity to exploit the suffering of others by trading US power and prestige for death & business opportunities.
December 22, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Even for an administration fundamentally built on lying and prevarication, “Russia remains fully committed to achieving peace in Ukraine” is a shocker
Tearing down the physical manifestations of Trumpism will be a huge catharsis whenever this shit ends, but it cannot distract from the urgent need to hold accountable all the *people* who have lawlessly imposed it on us
A no-brainer for any Democratic aspirant for the presidency is to vow to remove Trump’s name from the Kennedy Center and to tear down his White House ballroom to be replaced by a refurbished East Wing.
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/u...
The White House Says the Trump-Kennedy Center Vote Was ‘Unanimous.’ But Someone Was Muted.
www.nytimes.com
December 18, 2025 at 11:17 PM
Tearing down the physical manifestations of Trumpism will be a huge catharsis whenever this shit ends, but it cannot distract from the urgent need to hold accountable all the *people* who have lawlessly imposed it on us
No no…you see, slavery and Jim Crow were modest unfairnesses. Wokeness and DEI are systemic scourges that upend the fundamental premises of autonomy and equality on which liberal democracy was founded.
The collective delusion here is useful in that it has provoked conservatives to dispense with decades of bootstrap rhetoric and reveal what they would say if they thought black people were people, that is to say, if these things were happening to them
December 18, 2025 at 11:07 PM
No no…you see, slavery and Jim Crow were modest unfairnesses. Wokeness and DEI are systemic scourges that upend the fundamental premises of autonomy and equality on which liberal democracy was founded.
Journalists can’t even downplay the president’s close friendship with a rapist pedophile in order to conceal their own relationship with the same rapist pedophile anymore.
cancel culture run amok smdh
cancel culture run amok smdh
David Brooks, who wrote in the NYT last month, "The Epstein Story? Count Me Out" is... in the latest Epstein photo dump published by @oversightdemocrats.house.gov.
He should absolutely be fired by NYT for this. Major conflict of interest that he didn't disclose.
He should absolutely be fired by NYT for this. Major conflict of interest that he didn't disclose.
December 18, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Journalists can’t even downplay the president’s close friendship with a rapist pedophile in order to conceal their own relationship with the same rapist pedophile anymore.
cancel culture run amok smdh
cancel culture run amok smdh
Pretty telling that white men are ~30% of the population, and Douthat sees the world where white men only get 21.5% of the jobs as more of an injustice than the world where they get 53% of them.
The nyt’s Douthat launders racism and misogyny. Not for the first time.
He and the entitled whiner he champions promote as “evidence” of grievance that white men are hired … at about the proportion of the population they constitute.
He and the entitled whiner he champions promote as “evidence” of grievance that white men are hired … at about the proportion of the population they constitute.
December 18, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Pretty telling that white men are ~30% of the population, and Douthat sees the world where white men only get 21.5% of the jobs as more of an injustice than the world where they get 53% of them.
This seems mostly right to me.
Relatedly, does anyone have any idea how many “sanctioned oil tankers” there are and what percent of Venezuela’s oil exports they typically handle?
Relatedly, does anyone have any idea how many “sanctioned oil tankers” there are and what percent of Venezuela’s oil exports they typically handle?
I keep saying this but no one is connecting the dots. The war is to satisfy legal preconditions for mass removal *domestically* of Latinos (i.e., suddenly a lot of people are going to be “Venezuelan” for purposes of removal). This is 100% Stephen Miller…oil claim is to make grandpa go along
There is no national security logic that would impel the US to want to do regime change in Venezuela. It's simply not that important. I'm not even sure wag the dog is the right metaphor for what's happening here. Seems like an insane misallocation of US national security assets and attention.
December 17, 2025 at 1:25 AM
This seems mostly right to me.
Relatedly, does anyone have any idea how many “sanctioned oil tankers” there are and what percent of Venezuela’s oil exports they typically handle?
Relatedly, does anyone have any idea how many “sanctioned oil tankers” there are and what percent of Venezuela’s oil exports they typically handle?
Anyone wanna bet what the natalists will think of promoting fertility by trying to ensure it doesn’t kill women’s careers?
New U-M research from ISR’s Sasha Killewald finds that women now earn about 85% of men’s hourly wages, up from 65% in the mid 1980s, and about 8% of that narrowing is linked to having fewer children.
Learn more: myumi.ch/kPWeG
Learn more: myumi.ch/kPWeG
December 16, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Anyone wanna bet what the natalists will think of promoting fertility by trying to ensure it doesn’t kill women’s careers?
We’ve normalized seeing the military on the streets of our own cities. We’ve normalized extrajudicial killings of purported criminals carried out by our military abroad. It’d be wishful thinking to believe they won’t eventually try this.
Spoke with @nickturse.bsky.social.
“That is one of the concerns with the administration asserting that the President essentially has a license to kill outside the law based on his own say so. That prerogative might be wielded elsewhere — including inside the US.”
theintercept.com/2025/12/16/t...
“That is one of the concerns with the administration asserting that the President essentially has a license to kill outside the law based on his own say so. That prerogative might be wielded elsewhere — including inside the US.”
theintercept.com/2025/12/16/t...
U.S. Military Willing to Attack “Designated Terrorist Organizations” Within America, General Says
“If I had no concerns and I was confident in the lawful order, I would definitely execute that order.”
theintercept.com
December 16, 2025 at 2:34 PM
We’ve normalized seeing the military on the streets of our own cities. We’ve normalized extrajudicial killings of purported criminals carried out by our military abroad. It’d be wishful thinking to believe they won’t eventually try this.
Any country where a president can do this with impunity is not a democracy. It’s not even ambiguous. Only question is whether competitive authoritarianism becomes consolidated. I’m cautiously optimistic it won’t, but it’s wild to sit with the fact that American democracy has just totally collapsed.
🚨BREAKING: The Trump administration escalated its effort to punish a sitting U.S. senator for protected political speech Monday, formally converting the Pentagon’s review of Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) into an official Command Investigation under military law. www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/...
Trump Admin Intensifies Military Probe Against Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, Launches Command Investigation
Read more here.
www.democracydocket.com
December 16, 2025 at 3:53 AM
Any country where a president can do this with impunity is not a democracy. It’s not even ambiguous. Only question is whether competitive authoritarianism becomes consolidated. I’m cautiously optimistic it won’t, but it’s wild to sit with the fact that American democracy has just totally collapsed.
Independence Day.
I’m half convinced American democracy is collapsing because no one can live up to the expectations for a president set by Bill Pullman.
I’m half convinced American democracy is collapsing because no one can live up to the expectations for a president set by Bill Pullman.
Raising the always fun question: What are your most memorable theater-going experiences?
Mine also include The Matrix, Blair Witch, and being way too stoned in Belgium when Fellowship of the Ring was sold out so we sat in the back row for Mulholland Drive instead.
Mine also include The Matrix, Blair Witch, and being way too stoned in Belgium when Fellowship of the Ring was sold out so we sat in the back row for Mulholland Drive instead.
It was hands-down one of the most memorable theater-going experiences I can remember, a collective 30-minute butt-clench/armrest-grab for the final climb. And we knew he lived! Wild.
December 12, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Independence Day.
I’m half convinced American democracy is collapsing because no one can live up to the expectations for a president set by Bill Pullman.
I’m half convinced American democracy is collapsing because no one can live up to the expectations for a president set by Bill Pullman.