Kyle Haynes
@kylehaynes.bsky.social
Political scientist studying security, conflict, bargaining, US foreign policy, etc. Scored on by Geoff Cameron. Personal account. Opinions mine alone.
https://kyle-haynes.weebly.com/
https://kyle-haynes.weebly.com/
This also got me thinking that Morgenthau would’ve had a god damn field day with Trump, Xi, and Putin
I don’t think IR theory can explain what we are seeing
January 6, 2026 at 5:23 PM
This also got me thinking that Morgenthau would’ve had a god damn field day with Trump, Xi, and Putin
“our hemisphere”
MILLER: The US is using its military to secure our interests unapologetically in our hemisphere. We're a superpower. It's absurd we'd allow a nation in our backyard to become a supplier of resources to our adversaries
TAPPER: Sovereign countries shouldn't be able to do what they want?
M: *yells*
TAPPER: Sovereign countries shouldn't be able to do what they want?
M: *yells*
January 6, 2026 at 12:22 AM
“our hemisphere”
By what right does France control Paris? Or Italy control Rome? This is quite literally a justification for attacking any of our NATO allies, anywhere, at any time, for any reason.
TAPPER: Can you rule out the US is going to take Greenland by force?
MILLER: Greenland should be part of the US. By what right does Denmark assert control over Greenland? The US is the power of NATO
T: So force is on the table?
M: Nobody is gonna fight the US militarily over future of Greenland
MILLER: Greenland should be part of the US. By what right does Denmark assert control over Greenland? The US is the power of NATO
T: So force is on the table?
M: Nobody is gonna fight the US militarily over future of Greenland
January 6, 2026 at 12:19 AM
By what right does France control Paris? Or Italy control Rome? This is quite literally a justification for attacking any of our NATO allies, anywhere, at any time, for any reason.
This is insane. Anyone who thinks the United States today is within shouting distance of being a liberal democracy is totally deluded.
The Pentagon will cut the military retirement pay of Sen. Mark Kelly for what Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called the Arizona Democrat’s “seditious” statements on a video telling service members they have the right to refuse to execute illegal orders.
Read more: cnb.cx/495FHLo
Read more: cnb.cx/495FHLo
January 5, 2026 at 5:27 PM
This is insane. Anyone who thinks the United States today is within shouting distance of being a liberal democracy is totally deluded.
It's oddly reassuring in these uncertain times that Man U continues to be an absolute goat rodeo.
January 5, 2026 at 2:31 PM
It's oddly reassuring in these uncertain times that Man U continues to be an absolute goat rodeo.
Yes but what about their precious bodily fluids?
In a study following 23 million people age 18-59 (pretty young) for 4 years…despite the fact that the ones who got the COVID vaccine were overall older and sicker at baseline, they not only had 74% lower risk of dying from COVID than the unvaccinated but 25% lower risk of dying from any other cause!
January 5, 2026 at 3:46 AM
Yes but what about their precious bodily fluids?
It’s certainly not oil corps driving things, but the president also stopped learning about the world in the 1980s and definitely sees this as at least partially about getting some of that sweet sweet oil.
The amount of “this is clearly about oil” posting across all platforms as story after story comes out where the oil industry is saying that the oil isn’t worth extracting is making me feel a little insane
January 5, 2026 at 12:43 AM
It’s certainly not oil corps driving things, but the president also stopped learning about the world in the 1980s and definitely sees this as at least partially about getting some of that sweet sweet oil.
Seems like for now they’re mostly just hoping the regime collapses under its own weight without Venezuelan support. But yeah I certainly wouldn’t rule out some other nonsense as midterms approach if it hasn’t happened by then (it won’t).
January 5, 2026 at 12:27 AM
Seems like for now they’re mostly just hoping the regime collapses under its own weight without Venezuelan support. But yeah I certainly wouldn’t rule out some other nonsense as midterms approach if it hasn’t happened by then (it won’t).
I’ve always done an intro IR lecture on alliances and collective security organizations, emphasizing that NATO has elements of both (Russians out, Germans down etc). Another set of slides I never anticipated having to overhaul that…are definitely in need of some updating.
After 9/11, the US invoked Article 5 of the NATO treaty and every NATO member helped to combat terrorism.
Some of our closest allies, like Denmark, went even further, voluntarily sending troops to Afghanistan and Iraq in support of US-led wars there.
Today, Trump is threatening to attack Denmark.
Some of our closest allies, like Denmark, went even further, voluntarily sending troops to Afghanistan and Iraq in support of US-led wars there.
Today, Trump is threatening to attack Denmark.
January 5, 2026 at 12:21 AM
I’ve always done an intro IR lecture on alliances and collective security organizations, emphasizing that NATO has elements of both (Russians out, Germans down etc). Another set of slides I never anticipated having to overhaul that…are definitely in need of some updating.
See also Gaza 2005-2023
So we’re not doing Iraq 2003. Instead, we’re doing Iraq 1991-2002. Wonder how that went?
A former staffer said that U.S. officials would not be performing a formal occupation like in Iraq. “We’re going to tell them: ‘Hey, this is what you have to do in order for there not to be another strike. That’s what [Trump] sees as running the country.” www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
January 4, 2026 at 6:02 PM
See also Gaza 2005-2023
The incandescent rage of seeing someone try to dunk on you via quote post with a really stupid take…and then seeing that they have replies turned off.
Face me, coward. I demand satisfaction.
Face me, coward. I demand satisfaction.
January 4, 2026 at 4:07 AM
The incandescent rage of seeing someone try to dunk on you via quote post with a really stupid take…and then seeing that they have replies turned off.
Face me, coward. I demand satisfaction.
Face me, coward. I demand satisfaction.
Gonna see a crucial test of how much Americans innately care about breaking other countries. Opinion turned against GWB in Iraq, but mostly due to US casualties. If Trump just sends Venezuela into chaos and then goes off chasing the next car, acting like none of this ever happened, will anyone care?
Friendly reminder that W's Iraq invasion had 65% bipartisan approval when it started, even with debate about whether or not Saddam Hussein actually had WMDs. So the fact that this can't even crack 60% within the GOP is telling. 60% own-party support would typically kill a policy immediately.
Jan 3 poll of 1,902 U.S. adults (+/-2.8 points)
% who support | oppose the U.S. running Venezuela following the U.S. military's capture of President Nicolás Maduro
U.S. adults 34% | 41%
Democrats 16% | 64%
Independents 26% | 43%
Republicans 60% | 16%
today.yougov.com/topics/polit...
% who support | oppose the U.S. running Venezuela following the U.S. military's capture of President Nicolás Maduro
U.S. adults 34% | 41%
Democrats 16% | 64%
Independents 26% | 43%
Republicans 60% | 16%
today.yougov.com/topics/polit...
January 4, 2026 at 3:16 AM
Gonna see a crucial test of how much Americans innately care about breaking other countries. Opinion turned against GWB in Iraq, but mostly due to US casualties. If Trump just sends Venezuela into chaos and then goes off chasing the next car, acting like none of this ever happened, will anyone care?
I really don’t think they care about next week. They’re getting good headlines today. If US boots aren’t on the ground no one will care when the country descends into chaos. Rubio got revenge, and more importantly Trump got to dominate a perceived adversary. Everything else is peripheral.
“.. There is no evidence that anyone on the Trump team has thought about what will happen tomorrow, or next week, or next year ..
“.. we’re not even 24 hours into this .. Decades later, we’re still dealing with the aftermath in Afghanistan and Iraq.”
fallows.substack.com/p/blind-into...
“.. we’re not even 24 hours into this .. Decades later, we’re still dealing with the aftermath in Afghanistan and Iraq.”
fallows.substack.com/p/blind-into...
January 4, 2026 at 1:36 AM
I really don’t think they care about next week. They’re getting good headlines today. If US boots aren’t on the ground no one will care when the country descends into chaos. Rubio got revenge, and more importantly Trump got to dominate a perceived adversary. Everything else is peripheral.
Military force is very good for killing people and breaking things, and deterring others who might want to kill you or break your things. If you want to effect political change in ways that don’t center on killing people and/or breaking things, it’s extraordinarily limited.
I think one of the underrated dangers is that Russia was - on its terms - quite successful militarily under Putin under 2022, and that convinced them they could pull off what turned out to be a disaster. Similarly the relative 'success' of operations in Iran and Venezuela emboldens the U.S.
The last few years have shown us that Russia does war wrong at basically every conceivable level and yet they are now the model the current SecDef is inspired by.
January 4, 2026 at 1:30 AM
Military force is very good for killing people and breaking things, and deterring others who might want to kill you or break your things. If you want to effect political change in ways that don’t center on killing people and/or breaking things, it’s extraordinarily limited.
BREAKING: Susan Collins (R, ME) has been caucusing with Senate Democrats.
Press call with Chuck Schumer says he has been talking with his caucus "I've been talking to so many members of my caucus today. Everybody is very, very just totally, totally, totally troubled."
January 3, 2026 at 9:45 PM
BREAKING: Susan Collins (R, ME) has been caucusing with Senate Democrats.
Look, if “the country’s military” all backed the VP couping Maduro they wouldn’t have needed to call in the Delta Force to do it. That means there’s a big chunk of the military - probably a majority if Maduro had any chops - that opposed this. That’s…really fucking dangerous for the country.
January 3, 2026 at 8:45 PM
Look, if “the country’s military” all backed the VP couping Maduro they wouldn’t have needed to call in the Delta Force to do it. That means there’s a big chunk of the military - probably a majority if Maduro had any chops - that opposed this. That’s…really fucking dangerous for the country.
Predictable this is being discussed, but broadly speaking the possible outcomes in Venezuela appear to be 1) some form of military coup, civil war, and/or state failure; or 2) regime continuity under VP Rodriguez. None of these outcomes are terribly propitious for new US investment.
And there ya have it…
Officials from top Wall Street firms will be traveling to Venezuela to investigate “investment prospects” of the country. “The trip will feature about 20 officials from the finance, energy and defense sectors.”
Officials from top Wall Street firms will be traveling to Venezuela to investigate “investment prospects” of the country. “The trip will feature about 20 officials from the finance, energy and defense sectors.”
Finance Industry Eyes Investment Opportunities in Venezuela
Some on Wall Street are already considering possible investment opportunities in Venezuela following the capture of Nicolás Maduro, according to Charles Myers, chairman of consulting firm Signum Globa...
www.wsj.com
January 3, 2026 at 8:39 PM
Predictable this is being discussed, but broadly speaking the possible outcomes in Venezuela appear to be 1) some form of military coup, civil war, and/or state failure; or 2) regime continuity under VP Rodriguez. None of these outcomes are terribly propitious for new US investment.
So best I can tell the plan here is to (maybe? hopefully?) collapse the regime through decapitation and then coerce…someone (?) into allowing US oil companies free rein by threatening another “capture” and extradition or more air strikes or tariffs or something. Am I missing anything?
January 3, 2026 at 8:11 PM
So best I can tell the plan here is to (maybe? hopefully?) collapse the regime through decapitation and then coerce…someone (?) into allowing US oil companies free rein by threatening another “capture” and extradition or more air strikes or tariffs or something. Am I missing anything?
Venezuela’s population today is almost exactly the same size as Iraq’s in 2003 (~28m). Ultimately, 300k troops proved insufficient to “run the country.” But I’m sure tomahawks and tariffs will suffice to ensure a good outcome here.
Trump on Venezuela: "We're going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition"
January 3, 2026 at 4:55 PM
Venezuela’s population today is almost exactly the same size as Iraq’s in 2003 (~28m). Ultimately, 300k troops proved insufficient to “run the country.” But I’m sure tomahawks and tariffs will suffice to ensure a good outcome here.
The good news is that militaries in highly personalized dictatorships are notorious for their scrupulous adherence to rules of succession and respect for democratic procedures.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado has called for Edmundo González, who was widely considered to have won last year's presidential election, to take power immediately and be recognised by the military as commander-in-chief.
Follow live updates: ft.trib.al/rFS4VYD
Follow live updates: ft.trib.al/rFS4VYD
January 3, 2026 at 4:18 PM
The good news is that militaries in highly personalized dictatorships are notorious for their scrupulous adherence to rules of succession and respect for democratic procedures.
I regularly point out Trump’s total inability to think even one move down the game tree but somehow this is still shocking.
FOX & FRIENDS: What do you think is next for the Venezuelan people now that you have removed Maduro so he can face American justice?
TRUMP: Well, we're making that decision now. We can't take a chance on letting somebody else run it, just take over where he left off. So we're making that decision
TRUMP: Well, we're making that decision now. We can't take a chance on letting somebody else run it, just take over where he left off. So we're making that decision
January 3, 2026 at 4:13 PM
I regularly point out Trump’s total inability to think even one move down the game tree but somehow this is still shocking.
At its core, this admin is a bunch of vicious ideologues with specific agendas (Miller, Vought, Rubio) and a president who values only the act and appearance of domination. It’s an incredibly symbiotic and dangerous combination given the violence and suffering the ideologues’ agendas entail.
January 3, 2026 at 3:49 PM
At its core, this admin is a bunch of vicious ideologues with specific agendas (Miller, Vought, Rubio) and a president who values only the act and appearance of domination. It’s an incredibly symbiotic and dangerous combination given the violence and suffering the ideologues’ agendas entail.
Maybe worth noting that capturing Maduro is itself wildly illegal
The European Union urged the adherence to international law after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro earlier today.
EU urges respect for international law after US capture of Maduro
“We call for restraint,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said after U.S. operation to fly Maduro out of Venezuela.
www.politico.eu
January 3, 2026 at 1:42 PM
Maybe worth noting that capturing Maduro is itself wildly illegal
Maybe someone should remind GOPers that Ronald Reagan took a very soft line against Noriega because he viewed US federal indictments as meaningless and unenforceable against a sitting foreign head of state.
January 3, 2026 at 1:35 PM
Maybe someone should remind GOPers that Ronald Reagan took a very soft line against Noriega because he viewed US federal indictments as meaningless and unenforceable against a sitting foreign head of state.
The media’s steadfast refusal to treat transparently bad faith actors telling obvious lies accordingly is like 95% of the reason we’re on this mess.
The Bari Weiss hysteria continues. Exactly what in "this piece isn't ready" and "try harder to get comment from the administration" constitutes the death of American journalism? www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2025/1...
What Bari Weiss Got Right
And what she got wrong
www.theatlantic.com
December 23, 2025 at 7:13 PM
The media’s steadfast refusal to treat transparently bad faith actors telling obvious lies accordingly is like 95% of the reason we’re on this mess.