Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik
@joeboomzag.bsky.social
Pacific Northwest weather/climate forecasts. Website: theconvergencezone.com
After a crazy December, there's not much PNW weather news to report.
A few weak weather systems will move through from Thursday night -> next week. Temperatures will be near-normal and precipitation will generally be light.
For mid-January, current odds favor a transition back to dry weather.
A few weak weather systems will move through from Thursday night -> next week. Temperatures will be near-normal and precipitation will generally be light.
For mid-January, current odds favor a transition back to dry weather.
December 30, 2025 at 10:53 PM
After a crazy December, there's not much PNW weather news to report.
A few weak weather systems will move through from Thursday night -> next week. Temperatures will be near-normal and precipitation will generally be light.
For mid-January, current odds favor a transition back to dry weather.
A few weak weather systems will move through from Thursday night -> next week. Temperatures will be near-normal and precipitation will generally be light.
For mid-January, current odds favor a transition back to dry weather.
Reposted by Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik
🚨🔥 Warmest Christmas on record for the Contiguous U.S.! The average high of 57.9F and the average low of 36.6F each broke the Christmas record by a full 3F. 🔥🚨
December 26, 2025 at 3:39 PM
🚨🔥 Warmest Christmas on record for the Contiguous U.S.! The average high of 57.9F and the average low of 36.6F each broke the Christmas record by a full 3F. 🔥🚨
Fortunately for everyone, the wind storm didn‘t happen.
The European model had far and away the best forecasts for the event, although there were enough stronger members in the ensemble spread to trigger warnings/advisories.
The European model had far and away the best forecasts for the event, although there were enough stronger members in the ensemble spread to trigger warnings/advisories.
December 24, 2025 at 8:39 PM
Fortunately for everyone, the wind storm didn‘t happen.
The European model had far and away the best forecasts for the event, although there were enough stronger members in the ensemble spread to trigger warnings/advisories.
The European model had far and away the best forecasts for the event, although there were enough stronger members in the ensemble spread to trigger warnings/advisories.
I feel bad for the NAM model, it just wants one last time to shine before NOAA cuts the cord in 2026.
Fortunately it is 10-15+ years outdated and the modeled 70+ mph winds are NOT going to happen in Seattle.
Doesn't mean there won't be a significant storm, but not apocalypse level!
Fortunately it is 10-15+ years outdated and the modeled 70+ mph winds are NOT going to happen in Seattle.
Doesn't mean there won't be a significant storm, but not apocalypse level!
December 23, 2025 at 9:15 PM
I feel bad for the NAM model, it just wants one last time to shine before NOAA cuts the cord in 2026.
Fortunately it is 10-15+ years outdated and the modeled 70+ mph winds are NOT going to happen in Seattle.
Doesn't mean there won't be a significant storm, but not apocalypse level!
Fortunately it is 10-15+ years outdated and the modeled 70+ mph winds are NOT going to happen in Seattle.
Doesn't mean there won't be a significant storm, but not apocalypse level!
Will there be a Christmas Eve windstorm?
It would be nice to have an answer, but unfortunately the best meteorologists can do is say "maybe, maybe not".
I'd say it probably leans about 75/25 in favor of a minor event, so let's hope that ends up being the case.
It would be nice to have an answer, but unfortunately the best meteorologists can do is say "maybe, maybe not".
I'd say it probably leans about 75/25 in favor of a minor event, so let's hope that ends up being the case.
Will there be a windstorm in the PNW on Christmas Eve?
Forecasters are dealing with a tricky scenario over the next day as a potential windstorm with high forecast uncertainty takes aim at the PNW. As of Tuesday morning, NWS Seattle has high wind watch…
theconvergencezone.com
December 23, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Will there be a Christmas Eve windstorm?
It would be nice to have an answer, but unfortunately the best meteorologists can do is say "maybe, maybe not".
I'd say it probably leans about 75/25 in favor of a minor event, so let's hope that ends up being the case.
It would be nice to have an answer, but unfortunately the best meteorologists can do is say "maybe, maybe not".
I'd say it probably leans about 75/25 in favor of a minor event, so let's hope that ends up being the case.
Potential X-mas eve windstorm update --
The European model has a weaker and more inland low resulting in mostly non-damaging winds.
The GFS ensembles are stronger and farther west, resulting in an event that could be damaging for many areas.
Probably will come down to a nowcast 🤷
The European model has a weaker and more inland low resulting in mostly non-damaging winds.
The GFS ensembles are stronger and farther west, resulting in an event that could be damaging for many areas.
Probably will come down to a nowcast 🤷
December 23, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Potential X-mas eve windstorm update --
The European model has a weaker and more inland low resulting in mostly non-damaging winds.
The GFS ensembles are stronger and farther west, resulting in an event that could be damaging for many areas.
Probably will come down to a nowcast 🤷
The European model has a weaker and more inland low resulting in mostly non-damaging winds.
The GFS ensembles are stronger and farther west, resulting in an event that could be damaging for many areas.
Probably will come down to a nowcast 🤷
PNW wind storms exist to frustrate forecasters.
After a bunch of news articles ran today, the threat greatly diminished in the models.
Wednesday just looks to be a normal day with light rain and a gentle breeze. Unless the models flip again 😅
After a bunch of news articles ran today, the threat greatly diminished in the models.
Wednesday just looks to be a normal day with light rain and a gentle breeze. Unless the models flip again 😅
December 23, 2025 at 6:29 AM
PNW wind storms exist to frustrate forecasters.
After a bunch of news articles ran today, the threat greatly diminished in the models.
Wednesday just looks to be a normal day with light rain and a gentle breeze. Unless the models flip again 😅
After a bunch of news articles ran today, the threat greatly diminished in the models.
Wednesday just looks to be a normal day with light rain and a gentle breeze. Unless the models flip again 😅
It's raining again...that makes it 18/22 days with measurable rain this December in Seattle, 20/22 if you include 2 days with a trace.
December 23, 2025 at 12:04 AM
It's raining again...that makes it 18/22 days with measurable rain this December in Seattle, 20/22 if you include 2 days with a trace.
Reposted by Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik
They're trying to squeak one more Harrell Administration priority through before the end of the year: allowing huge-ass corporate signs on skyscrapers in Downtown Seattle.
services.seattle.gov/Portal/Cap/C...
services.seattle.gov/Portal/Cap/C...
December 22, 2025 at 3:59 PM
They're trying to squeak one more Harrell Administration priority through before the end of the year: allowing huge-ass corporate signs on skyscrapers in Downtown Seattle.
services.seattle.gov/Portal/Cap/C...
services.seattle.gov/Portal/Cap/C...
A Christmas Eve windstorm is appearing increasingly likely with a compact 980 hPa low + trailing sting jet expected to take a troublesome S to N track. Willamette Valley, coast, PDX, SEA metros all potentially impacted.
Lots of model uncertainty…follow forecasts closely. Could be a bad one.
Lots of model uncertainty…follow forecasts closely. Could be a bad one.
December 22, 2025 at 2:47 PM
A Christmas Eve windstorm is appearing increasingly likely with a compact 980 hPa low + trailing sting jet expected to take a troublesome S to N track. Willamette Valley, coast, PDX, SEA metros all potentially impacted.
Lots of model uncertainty…follow forecasts closely. Could be a bad one.
Lots of model uncertainty…follow forecasts closely. Could be a bad one.
Watching a possible snow event for the WA lowlands on Christmas Eve.
Currently looks like a "dusting on the higher hills" type event for Seattle.
Areas north and at higher elevations have a better chance at seeing accumulating snow, but it's still too early to tell...
Currently looks like a "dusting on the higher hills" type event for Seattle.
Areas north and at higher elevations have a better chance at seeing accumulating snow, but it's still too early to tell...
December 19, 2025 at 6:59 PM
Watching a possible snow event for the WA lowlands on Christmas Eve.
Currently looks like a "dusting on the higher hills" type event for Seattle.
Areas north and at higher elevations have a better chance at seeing accumulating snow, but it's still too early to tell...
Currently looks like a "dusting on the higher hills" type event for Seattle.
Areas north and at higher elevations have a better chance at seeing accumulating snow, but it's still too early to tell...
Sea-Tac is now over 7 inches of rain for December. Average Dec total is 5.90 in.
The high water mark for Dec is 11.85" from 1979. Second is Dec 2015, 11.21".
Models suggest that we'll get to the 12-13 inch range by the end of the month, which would be #3 all time for any month.
The high water mark for Dec is 11.85" from 1979. Second is Dec 2015, 11.21".
Models suggest that we'll get to the 12-13 inch range by the end of the month, which would be #3 all time for any month.
December 18, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Sea-Tac is now over 7 inches of rain for December. Average Dec total is 5.90 in.
The high water mark for Dec is 11.85" from 1979. Second is Dec 2015, 11.21".
Models suggest that we'll get to the 12-13 inch range by the end of the month, which would be #3 all time for any month.
The high water mark for Dec is 11.85" from 1979. Second is Dec 2015, 11.21".
Models suggest that we'll get to the 12-13 inch range by the end of the month, which would be #3 all time for any month.
"What if it was all snow?"
It was at one spot in Washington -- Harts Pass, the highest elevation SNOTEL site in the Washington Cascades.
Snowpack is now 173% of normal for the date. Last winter it took until March 14 to reach this level of snowpack.
It was at one spot in Washington -- Harts Pass, the highest elevation SNOTEL site in the Washington Cascades.
Snowpack is now 173% of normal for the date. Last winter it took until March 14 to reach this level of snowpack.
December 17, 2025 at 4:47 PM
"What if it was all snow?"
It was at one spot in Washington -- Harts Pass, the highest elevation SNOTEL site in the Washington Cascades.
Snowpack is now 173% of normal for the date. Last winter it took until March 14 to reach this level of snowpack.
It was at one spot in Washington -- Harts Pass, the highest elevation SNOTEL site in the Washington Cascades.
Snowpack is now 173% of normal for the date. Last winter it took until March 14 to reach this level of snowpack.
What’s the likelihood this actually happens? Killing the mothership would be the knockout blow for weather and climate research in this country.
Trump administration to dismantle key climate research center
Any such plan "would set back our nation’s ability to predict, prepare for, and respond to severe weather and other natural disasters,” said Antonio Busalacchi, who oversees the center: www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
Any such plan "would set back our nation’s ability to predict, prepare for, and respond to severe weather and other natural disasters,” said Antonio Busalacchi, who oversees the center: www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
Trump administration to dismantle key climate research center
Russell Vought, who directs the White House Office of Management and Budget, announced plans to split up the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, citing concerns about “clima...
www.washingtonpost.com
December 17, 2025 at 2:10 PM
What’s the likelihood this actually happens? Killing the mothership would be the knockout blow for weather and climate research in this country.
Reposted by Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik
Efforts by the USACE and facilitated by accurate NWS forecasts appear to have significantly reduced impacts from record flooding on the Skagit River in WA last week. A look at how that worked and why we have to protect the foundations of our fed science/water agencies. tinyurl.com/bdebat4m
A look at a successful real-time effort to reduce flooding in western Washington last week
Looking at how federal science and water agencies work together in flood events. Also - flood risk continue in the Pacific Northwest while the rest of the country warms up.
tinyurl.com
December 16, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Efforts by the USACE and facilitated by accurate NWS forecasts appear to have significantly reduced impacts from record flooding on the Skagit River in WA last week. A look at how that worked and why we have to protect the foundations of our fed science/water agencies. tinyurl.com/bdebat4m
This is incredible -- if the claims are true that the Skagit crest height was reduced by 4-5 ft (consistent with some forecasts), this emergency measure may have saved hundreds of millions in damage to Mt. Vernon and other towns along the Skagit river.
The Army Corps of Engineers was able to reduce flooding on the Skagit River with emergency operations of two hydropower dams upstream.
Army takeover of Skagit dams lowers flood waters
The Army Corps of Engineers was able to reduce flooding on the Skagit River with emergency operations of two hydropower dams upstream.
www.kuow.org
December 16, 2025 at 1:18 AM
This is incredible -- if the claims are true that the Skagit crest height was reduced by 4-5 ft (consistent with some forecasts), this emergency measure may have saved hundreds of millions in damage to Mt. Vernon and other towns along the Skagit river.
A flash flood warning has been issued for a levee failure on the Green River near Tukwila
Evacuation info: This is for residents and businesses east of the Green River in the Orillia area in Tukwila, Renton and Kent. Due to breach in the Desimone Levee, this area is under a GO NOW evacuation notice
Evacuation info: This is for residents and businesses east of the Green River in the Orillia area in Tukwila, Renton and Kent. Due to breach in the Desimone Levee, this area is under a GO NOW evacuation notice
SEW corrects Flash Flood Warning [flash flood: observed, flash flood damage threat: considerable, levee failure: occurring] for King [WA] till Dec 15, 9:00 PM PST Link
December 15, 2025 at 8:28 PM
A flash flood warning has been issued for a levee failure on the Green River near Tukwila
Evacuation info: This is for residents and businesses east of the Green River in the Orillia area in Tukwila, Renton and Kent. Due to breach in the Desimone Levee, this area is under a GO NOW evacuation notice
Evacuation info: This is for residents and businesses east of the Green River in the Orillia area in Tukwila, Renton and Kent. Due to breach in the Desimone Levee, this area is under a GO NOW evacuation notice
Reposted by Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik
SEW corrects Flash Flood Warning [flash flood: observed, flash flood damage threat: considerable, levee failure: occurring] for King [WA] till Dec 15, 9:00 PM PST Link
December 15, 2025 at 8:11 PM
SEW corrects Flash Flood Warning [flash flood: observed, flash flood damage threat: considerable, levee failure: occurring] for King [WA] till Dec 15, 9:00 PM PST Link
Sea-Tac is now over 5.25" of rainfall for December.
Normal for the entire month is 5.75".
Model forecasts show about 2 additional inches falling this week.
Normal for the entire month is 5.75".
Model forecasts show about 2 additional inches falling this week.
December 15, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Sea-Tac is now over 5.25" of rainfall for December.
Normal for the entire month is 5.75".
Model forecasts show about 2 additional inches falling this week.
Normal for the entire month is 5.75".
Model forecasts show about 2 additional inches falling this week.
I spent way too much time on a Saturday analyzing snowfall trends in Washington, but it does appear that the start to snow season in the WA Cascades has trended later in recent decades. Check out my post to learn more...
Is the slow start to snowpack season in Washington State part of a declining snowfall trend?
Summary: YES, early season snowpack has declined recently, even as season total snowfall and melt out dates remain essentially unchanged. Read on to learn more… In my previous post I showed t…
theconvergencezone.com
December 13, 2025 at 10:54 PM
I spent way too much time on a Saturday analyzing snowfall trends in Washington, but it does appear that the start to snow season in the WA Cascades has trended later in recent decades. Check out my post to learn more...
The catastrophic flooding has been rough to handle, so here's some good news.
One more warm atmos river on Monday, then the Cascades are going to get pummeled with snow when cold air finally moves in next Wednesday.
Snoqualmie Pass could see 4 feet of snow by Christmas.
Skiing will be great.
One more warm atmos river on Monday, then the Cascades are going to get pummeled with snow when cold air finally moves in next Wednesday.
Snoqualmie Pass could see 4 feet of snow by Christmas.
Skiing will be great.
December 11, 2025 at 11:11 PM
The catastrophic flooding has been rough to handle, so here's some good news.
One more warm atmos river on Monday, then the Cascades are going to get pummeled with snow when cold air finally moves in next Wednesday.
Snoqualmie Pass could see 4 feet of snow by Christmas.
Skiing will be great.
One more warm atmos river on Monday, then the Cascades are going to get pummeled with snow when cold air finally moves in next Wednesday.
Snoqualmie Pass could see 4 feet of snow by Christmas.
Skiing will be great.
Reposted by Joe Boomgard-Zagrodnik
Another record stage reached on a western Washington river, this time the Cedar River at Renton. Records go back to at least 1940. #wawx
December 11, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Another record stage reached on a western Washington river, this time the Cedar River at Renton. Records go back to at least 1940. #wawx
A brief summary as the atmospheric river finally tapers off, with the worst flooding along the Skagit river still to come.
Historic river flooding as atmospheric river aims at Washington for a 4th consecutive day
It’s hard to put into words how extraordinary the ongoing atmospheric river event has been for western Washington. A 72-hour IR satellite loop shows how a band of moisture originating in the …
theconvergencezone.com
December 11, 2025 at 6:19 PM
A brief summary as the atmospheric river finally tapers off, with the worst flooding along the Skagit river still to come.
Here's a sampling of some rainfall totals since Monday morning if you were wondering why rivers are experiencing historic flooding in the WA Cascades. Normally one would expect at least some of this to fall as snow in the high terrain, but it was 100% rain in this area.
December 11, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Here's a sampling of some rainfall totals since Monday morning if you were wondering why rivers are experiencing historic flooding in the WA Cascades. Normally one would expect at least some of this to fall as snow in the high terrain, but it was 100% rain in this area.
Morning update: it rained all night and the Snohomish River is now above its modern record and still rising. For now the Snoqualmie River remains slightly below record level, but still in major flood stage.
December 11, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Morning update: it rained all night and the Snohomish River is now above its modern record and still rising. For now the Snoqualmie River remains slightly below record level, but still in major flood stage.