Jacob S. Rugh
@jakerugh.bsky.social
Raised on Chicago's South Side. My research has appeared in The Atlantic, 538, The Guardian, KSL, NYT, NPR, Split Ticket, Salt Lake Tribune & Supreme Court cases.
Pinned
NEW AT DEMOGRAPHY: We use difference-in-difference approach using applicant vs. implemented counties w/ 287(g) ICE agreements 2000-2020 to identify a plausibly causal effect immigration enforcement leading to sizeable increase in Latino-White segregation.
OPEN ACCESS PDF
doi.org/10.1215/0070...
OPEN ACCESS PDF
doi.org/10.1215/0070...
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
I've confirmed that San Francisco, Bridgeport, Baltimore, Chicago and Philadelphia hit the lowest levels since before 1970 this year. New Orleans tied 2019 for the lowest since 1970. Still waiting on data from the other cities but likely to check out.
I count 10 cities in 2025 that are on track to have the fewest murders since at least 1970. Newark is on pace to have the fewest murders since 1956 (though only have data through Oct this year) and San Francisco is on pace to have the fewest murders since 1942.
January 2, 2026 at 2:12 AM
I've confirmed that San Francisco, Bridgeport, Baltimore, Chicago and Philadelphia hit the lowest levels since before 1970 this year. New Orleans tied 2019 for the lowest since 1970. Still waiting on data from the other cities but likely to check out.
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
Fewest murders in Chicago since...*1965*
"The number of murders in Chicago decreased from 587 in 2024 to 416 last year, a nearly 30% drop...shootings had fallen 35% from 2024, robberies were down 36% and aggravated batteries had dipped 11%, police data shows."
"The number of murders in Chicago decreased from 587 in 2024 to 416 last year, a nearly 30% drop...shootings had fallen 35% from 2024, robberies were down 36% and aggravated batteries had dipped 11%, police data shows."
Chicago records fewest killings since 1965, despite Trump's attacks against the city
Overall crime continued to drop as the number of murders in Chicago decreased from 587 in 2024 to 416 last year, when scores of federal immigration agents flooded the city and President Trump repeated...
chicago.suntimes.com
January 2, 2026 at 2:45 PM
Fewest murders in Chicago since...*1965*
"The number of murders in Chicago decreased from 587 in 2024 to 416 last year, a nearly 30% drop...shootings had fallen 35% from 2024, robberies were down 36% and aggravated batteries had dipped 11%, police data shows."
"The number of murders in Chicago decreased from 587 in 2024 to 416 last year, a nearly 30% drop...shootings had fallen 35% from 2024, robberies were down 36% and aggravated batteries had dipped 11%, police data shows."
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
WHOA.
"We estimate that from the mid-2000s to 2022, exposure to the opioid epidemic continuously increased the Republican vote share in House, presidential, and gubernatorial elections." This is absolutely nuts. #politics #news
"We estimate that from the mid-2000s to 2022, exposure to the opioid epidemic continuously increased the Republican vote share in House, presidential, and gubernatorial elections." This is absolutely nuts. #politics #news
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Republican Support and Economic Hardship: The Enduring Effects of the Opioid Epidemic,” by Arteaga (@caroartc.bsky.social) and Barone (@vickybarone.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Republican Support and Economic Hardship: The Enduring Effects Of the Opioid Epidemic
Abstract. In this paper, we establish a causal connection between two of the most salient social developments in the United States over the past decades: t
doi.org
December 26, 2025 at 10:07 PM
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
This is the best pundit analysis you’ll find of the Democrats’ situation in 2025. Happy New Year! No more McClellans in 2026!
a little more on one of my favored analogies youtu.be/Msz2daPeTyg
The Democratic Party's McClellan Problem
YouTube video by Takes™ by Jamelle Bouie
youtu.be
December 31, 2025 at 12:57 PM
This is the best pundit analysis you’ll find of the Democrats’ situation in 2025. Happy New Year! No more McClellans in 2026!
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
30
Point
Democratic
Overperformance
I expect a lot of Republican retirements in January & February.
Point
Democratic
Overperformance
I expect a lot of Republican retirements in January & February.
Looks like most of the vote is in for the Iowa #SD16 (Harris+17) special election:
Renee Hardman (D)- 73.3%
Lucas Loftin (R)- 26.7%
Nearly a 30 point overperformance to cap off an amazing 2025 for the Iowa Democrats
Renee Hardman (D)- 73.3%
Lucas Loftin (R)- 26.7%
Nearly a 30 point overperformance to cap off an amazing 2025 for the Iowa Democrats
December 31, 2025 at 2:24 AM
30
Point
Democratic
Overperformance
I expect a lot of Republican retirements in January & February.
Point
Democratic
Overperformance
I expect a lot of Republican retirements in January & February.
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
Year 1 data on congestion pricing in Manhattan…
* Vehicle traffic: -11%
* Foot traffic: +3.4%
* Storefront vacancy: -0.9%
* Pollution: -22%
* Revenue for mass transit: $548M
So YES this has been a huge success.
* Vehicle traffic: -11%
* Foot traffic: +3.4%
* Storefront vacancy: -0.9%
* Pollution: -22%
* Revenue for mass transit: $548M
So YES this has been a huge success.
December 23, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Year 1 data on congestion pricing in Manhattan…
* Vehicle traffic: -11%
* Foot traffic: +3.4%
* Storefront vacancy: -0.9%
* Pollution: -22%
* Revenue for mass transit: $548M
So YES this has been a huge success.
* Vehicle traffic: -11%
* Foot traffic: +3.4%
* Storefront vacancy: -0.9%
* Pollution: -22%
* Revenue for mass transit: $548M
So YES this has been a huge success.
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
Thread on important new work in Demography. Local law enforcement cooperation with ICE increases Latino/white segregation. (I'm editorializing but there's good evidence that was the point of cooperation).
NEW AT DEMOGRAPHY: We use difference-in-difference approach using applicant vs. implemented counties w/ 287(g) ICE agreements 2000-2020 to identify a plausibly causal effect immigration enforcement leading to sizeable increase in Latino-White segregation.
OPEN ACCESS PDF
doi.org/10.1215/0070...
OPEN ACCESS PDF
doi.org/10.1215/0070...
December 24, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Thread on important new work in Demography. Local law enforcement cooperation with ICE increases Latino/white segregation. (I'm editorializing but there's good evidence that was the point of cooperation).
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
🧵on our newest paper in Demography on mass deportation and Latino segregation
NEW AT DEMOGRAPHY: We use difference-in-difference approach using applicant vs. implemented counties w/ 287(g) ICE agreements 2000-2020 to identify a plausibly causal effect immigration enforcement leading to sizeable increase in Latino-White segregation.
OPEN ACCESS PDF
doi.org/10.1215/0070...
OPEN ACCESS PDF
doi.org/10.1215/0070...
December 22, 2025 at 7:17 PM
🧵on our newest paper in Demography on mass deportation and Latino segregation
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
"...restrictive policies toward immigrants shape residential patterns not only by facilitating deportations but also by increasing economic vulnerability, inciting fear and anxiety, and eroding trust between Latinos and other groups."
Policies that divide communities literally divide communities.
Policies that divide communities literally divide communities.
NEW AT DEMOGRAPHY: We use difference-in-difference approach using applicant vs. implemented counties w/ 287(g) ICE agreements 2000-2020 to identify a plausibly causal effect immigration enforcement leading to sizeable increase in Latino-White segregation.
OPEN ACCESS PDF
doi.org/10.1215/0070...
OPEN ACCESS PDF
doi.org/10.1215/0070...
December 22, 2025 at 10:28 PM
"...restrictive policies toward immigrants shape residential patterns not only by facilitating deportations but also by increasing economic vulnerability, inciting fear and anxiety, and eroding trust between Latinos and other groups."
Policies that divide communities literally divide communities.
Policies that divide communities literally divide communities.
NEW AT DEMOGRAPHY: We use difference-in-difference approach using applicant vs. implemented counties w/ 287(g) ICE agreements 2000-2020 to identify a plausibly causal effect immigration enforcement leading to sizeable increase in Latino-White segregation.
OPEN ACCESS PDF
doi.org/10.1215/0070...
OPEN ACCESS PDF
doi.org/10.1215/0070...
December 22, 2025 at 6:00 PM
NEW AT DEMOGRAPHY: We use difference-in-difference approach using applicant vs. implemented counties w/ 287(g) ICE agreements 2000-2020 to identify a plausibly causal effect immigration enforcement leading to sizeable increase in Latino-White segregation.
OPEN ACCESS PDF
doi.org/10.1215/0070...
OPEN ACCESS PDF
doi.org/10.1215/0070...
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
Trump is weak.
Indiana’s Senate has voted AGAINST the GOP gerrymander that’d have locked in a 9-0 map.
This keeps the 7-2 map in place, saving two Democratic seats heading into 2026.
The vote failed big, 19/31.
The MAJORITY of the GOP senators opposed it!
This keeps the 7-2 map in place, saving two Democratic seats heading into 2026.
The vote failed big, 19/31.
The MAJORITY of the GOP senators opposed it!
December 11, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Trump is weak.
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
Good on Indiana! bsky.app/profile/meid...
MAJOR BREAKING: Despite Trump's threats, the Indiana State Senate has REJECTED the Trump-backed 9-0 gerrymandered map, leaving the existing 7-2 map in place.
December 11, 2025 at 10:28 PM
Good on Indiana! bsky.app/profile/meid...
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
BREAKING: In a powerful reproach to Trump, the Indiana Senate votes against advancing the state’s GOP-led congressional gerrymander that would have handed Republicans both of Indiana’s blue districts.
In Blow to Trump, Indiana Rejects GOP Gerrymander
Read more here.
www.democracydocket.com
December 11, 2025 at 9:47 PM
BREAKING: In a powerful reproach to Trump, the Indiana Senate votes against advancing the state’s GOP-led congressional gerrymander that would have handed Republicans both of Indiana’s blue districts.
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
BREAKING: Kilmar Abrego Garcia has been released.
NEW: A federal judge ordered Kilmar Abrego Garcia — the Maryland man who was wrongly removed from the U.S. and sent to El Salvador without due process by the Trump administration — to be released from an ICE detention center, ruling his detention unlawful.
Judge Orders Abrego Garcia's Immediate Release from Immigration Custody
Read more here.
www.democracydocket.com
December 11, 2025 at 10:16 PM
BREAKING: Kilmar Abrego Garcia has been released.
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
🚨Judge Xinis finds that, incredibly, Mr. Abrego Garcia was never ordered deported in 2019. She notes that every since this saga began all the way back in March, the government has NEVER been able to produce any evidence that the immigration judge actually issued a removal order.
December 11, 2025 at 4:13 PM
🚨Judge Xinis finds that, incredibly, Mr. Abrego Garcia was never ordered deported in 2019. She notes that every since this saga began all the way back in March, the government has NEVER been able to produce any evidence that the immigration judge actually issued a removal order.
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
The Indiana GOP's new congressional gerrymander failed by a vote of 31-19.
21 Republicans joined the 10 Democrats in voting no.
21 Republicans joined the 10 Democrats in voting no.
BREAKING: Indiana Republicans FAILED to pass a new 9-0 congressional gerrymander after enough GOP senators sided with Dems. The GOP's 7-2 map stays in place.
Trump is trying to re-gerrymander maps nationwide. At least 11 Indiana Rs got death threats after he called for primaries—but it still failed
Trump is trying to re-gerrymander maps nationwide. At least 11 Indiana Rs got death threats after he called for primaries—but it still failed
December 11, 2025 at 9:38 PM
The Indiana GOP's new congressional gerrymander failed by a vote of 31-19.
21 Republicans joined the 10 Democrats in voting no.
21 Republicans joined the 10 Democrats in voting no.
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
Avg swing in specials to Congress is 17 pts left since 2024. But bc they've been so low-turnout, the data b4 last night suggested a 100% turnout (relative to the past midterm) special would have swung closer to 6-7 points. So TN-7 (13 pts) is updating priors about the share of swing that's turnout
December 3, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Avg swing in specials to Congress is 17 pts left since 2024. But bc they've been so low-turnout, the data b4 last night suggested a 100% turnout (relative to the past midterm) special would have swung closer to 6-7 points. So TN-7 (13 pts) is updating priors about the share of swing that's turnout
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
Before tonight, the average Dem overperformance in special elections was 13 points.
Aftyn Behn matched that figure almost exactly.
If anything remotely like this holds next year, GOP hopes of holding the House will be very slim.
Track all these races with our special election Big Board →→→
Aftyn Behn matched that figure almost exactly.
If anything remotely like this holds next year, GOP hopes of holding the House will be very slim.
Track all these races with our special election Big Board →→→
The Downballot's special elections Big Board for the 2025-26 cycle
docs.google.com
December 3, 2025 at 3:08 AM
Before tonight, the average Dem overperformance in special elections was 13 points.
Aftyn Behn matched that figure almost exactly.
If anything remotely like this holds next year, GOP hopes of holding the House will be very slim.
Track all these races with our special election Big Board →→→
Aftyn Behn matched that figure almost exactly.
If anything remotely like this holds next year, GOP hopes of holding the House will be very slim.
Track all these races with our special election Big Board →→→
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
59 special elections
49 Dem over-performances
27 of 28 Repub-held districts were Dem over-performances
6 R=>D flips
0 D=>R flips
0 D under-performance by>7
36 R under-performance by>7
49 Dem over-performances
27 of 28 Repub-held districts were Dem over-performances
6 R=>D flips
0 D=>R flips
0 D under-performance by>7
36 R under-performance by>7
December 2, 2025 at 2:01 AM
59 special elections
49 Dem over-performances
27 of 28 Repub-held districts were Dem over-performances
6 R=>D flips
0 D=>R flips
0 D under-performance by>7
36 R under-performance by>7
49 Dem over-performances
27 of 28 Repub-held districts were Dem over-performances
6 R=>D flips
0 D=>R flips
0 D under-performance by>7
36 R under-performance by>7
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
What was once a long-shot bid to flip a R+22 district in TN has turned into a tight race, with progressive Aftyn Behn, within two points of her GOP opponent, telling me that she can feel the "Republican eye of Sauron breathing down my neck."
www.salon.com/2025/12/01/a...
www.salon.com/2025/12/01/a...
Aftyn Behn’s rise challenges Tennessee’s GOP establishment - Salon.com
Tennessee’s 7th District race is challenging assumptions about how Democrats win red states
www.salon.com
December 1, 2025 at 8:19 PM
What was once a long-shot bid to flip a R+22 district in TN has turned into a tight race, with progressive Aftyn Behn, within two points of her GOP opponent, telling me that she can feel the "Republican eye of Sauron breathing down my neck."
www.salon.com/2025/12/01/a...
www.salon.com/2025/12/01/a...
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
So I’ve made it official folks: I’ve filed the paperwork to run for Governor of Alabama. It’s time to remind this state of who we are and what we can accomplish together.
#DougForAlabama
#DougForAlabama
November 24, 2025 at 8:54 PM
So I’ve made it official folks: I’ve filed the paperwork to run for Governor of Alabama. It’s time to remind this state of who we are and what we can accomplish together.
#DougForAlabama
#DougForAlabama
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
🚨We analyzed 138 million geocoded property tax records to quantify how municipal boundaries spatially overlap onto economic segregation in every US metro area—creating disparities in localities’ ability to fund public goods. And we made an interactive map of our results! [1/16]
November 24, 2025 at 4:31 PM
🚨We analyzed 138 million geocoded property tax records to quantify how municipal boundaries spatially overlap onto economic segregation in every US metro area—creating disparities in localities’ ability to fund public goods. And we made an interactive map of our results! [1/16]
Reposted by Jacob S. Rugh
6/🧵 Why does conventional wisdom miss this? We confuse electoral swings with attitude changes. Gen Z shifted 6 points toward Trump in 2024, suddenly pundits say they're "the most conservative generation in 50 years." Only 42% of Gen Z voted. We mistake turnout shifts for ideological transformation.
November 14, 2025 at 8:44 PM
6/🧵 Why does conventional wisdom miss this? We confuse electoral swings with attitude changes. Gen Z shifted 6 points toward Trump in 2024, suddenly pundits say they're "the most conservative generation in 50 years." Only 42% of Gen Z voted. We mistake turnout shifts for ideological transformation.