Jacob S. Rugh
@jakerugh.bsky.social
Raised on Chicago's South Side. My research has appeared in The Atlantic, 538, The Guardian, KSL, NYT, NPR, Split Ticket, Salt Lake Tribune & Supreme Court cases.
Provo, Utah Mayoral Results and
Primary-to-General Shifts
Judkins 8,598 (52.2%) ✅️
Kaufusi-inc. 8,200 (48.8%)
Judkins gained +5 pts margin citywide, including > +30-pt. swings among student areas around BYU and esp. Slate Canyon in SE Provo where mud slide hit local area hard post-primary.
Primary-to-General Shifts
Judkins 8,598 (52.2%) ✅️
Kaufusi-inc. 8,200 (48.8%)
Judkins gained +5 pts margin citywide, including > +30-pt. swings among student areas around BYU and esp. Slate Canyon in SE Provo where mud slide hit local area hard post-primary.
November 7, 2025 at 10:07 PM
Provo, Utah Mayoral Results and
Primary-to-General Shifts
Judkins 8,598 (52.2%) ✅️
Kaufusi-inc. 8,200 (48.8%)
Judkins gained +5 pts margin citywide, including > +30-pt. swings among student areas around BYU and esp. Slate Canyon in SE Provo where mud slide hit local area hard post-primary.
Primary-to-General Shifts
Judkins 8,598 (52.2%) ✅️
Kaufusi-inc. 8,200 (48.8%)
Judkins gained +5 pts margin citywide, including > +30-pt. swings among student areas around BYU and esp. Slate Canyon in SE Provo where mud slide hit local area hard post-primary.
Look at all that GREEN 🟩
November 7, 2025 at 4:09 AM
Look at all that GREEN 🟩
#Breaking Centrist Reform challenger candidate and west side resident Marsha Judkins has clinched the race for Mayor of Provo, 4th most populous city in Utah, after the final batch of votes were tabulated and reported. Her lead is insurmountable given the small number of outstanding ballots to cure.
November 7, 2025 at 2:11 AM
#Breaking Centrist Reform challenger candidate and west side resident Marsha Judkins has clinched the race for Mayor of Provo, 4th most populous city in Utah, after the final batch of votes were tabulated and reported. Her lead is insurmountable given the small number of outstanding ballots to cure.
🗺️MAP Unofficial Results: Provo, UT Mayor
Marsha Judkins (reform candidate) 7,153=50.2%
Michelle Kaufusi (2-term incumbent) 7,094=49.8%
Judkins has gained with every ballot drop, going from down -3.4 to down -1.4 to UP +0.4 already beyond recount threshold. Est. 2K ballots left to drop TONIGHT.
Marsha Judkins (reform candidate) 7,153=50.2%
Michelle Kaufusi (2-term incumbent) 7,094=49.8%
Judkins has gained with every ballot drop, going from down -3.4 to down -1.4 to UP +0.4 already beyond recount threshold. Est. 2K ballots left to drop TONIGHT.
November 6, 2025 at 6:54 PM
🗺️MAP Unofficial Results: Provo, UT Mayor
Marsha Judkins (reform candidate) 7,153=50.2%
Michelle Kaufusi (2-term incumbent) 7,094=49.8%
Judkins has gained with every ballot drop, going from down -3.4 to down -1.4 to UP +0.4 already beyond recount threshold. Est. 2K ballots left to drop TONIGHT.
Marsha Judkins (reform candidate) 7,153=50.2%
Michelle Kaufusi (2-term incumbent) 7,094=49.8%
Judkins has gained with every ballot drop, going from down -3.4 to down -1.4 to UP +0.4 already beyond recount threshold. Est. 2K ballots left to drop TONIGHT.
I will update this map today. Here are the sectors overlaid on the primary election results map:
November 6, 2025 at 12:59 PM
I will update this map today. Here are the sectors overlaid on the primary election results map:
Absolutely incredible shifts in SE Provo--Slate Canyon area especially--and most of the city propelled centrist reform candidate Marsha Judkins to the come-from-behind general election lead vs. 2-term incumbent
Judkins in the driver's seat: very few ballots left to count to change things.
Judkins in the driver's seat: very few ballots left to count to change things.
November 6, 2025 at 4:22 AM
Absolutely incredible shifts in SE Provo--Slate Canyon area especially--and most of the city propelled centrist reform candidate Marsha Judkins to the come-from-behind general election lead vs. 2-term incumbent
Judkins in the driver's seat: very few ballots left to count to change things.
Judkins in the driver's seat: very few ballots left to count to change things.
August 13, 2025 at 9:43 PM
@ryanburge.bsky.social reports NO change in LDS/Mormon vote, 2020-2024
This is meaningful bc the non-LDS vote moved +6 R (LDS +6 D vs. USA chg.)
"The conclusion...is unmistakable-the LDS electorate is not so strongly tied with the Republican party now."
www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/2024-elect...
This is meaningful bc the non-LDS vote moved +6 R (LDS +6 D vs. USA chg.)
"The conclusion...is unmistakable-the LDS electorate is not so strongly tied with the Republican party now."
www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/2024-elect...
June 2, 2025 at 8:33 PM
@ryanburge.bsky.social reports NO change in LDS/Mormon vote, 2020-2024
This is meaningful bc the non-LDS vote moved +6 R (LDS +6 D vs. USA chg.)
"The conclusion...is unmistakable-the LDS electorate is not so strongly tied with the Republican party now."
www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/2024-elect...
This is meaningful bc the non-LDS vote moved +6 R (LDS +6 D vs. USA chg.)
"The conclusion...is unmistakable-the LDS electorate is not so strongly tied with the Republican party now."
www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/2024-elect...
Bonus precinct-level maps of 2024 election results and 2020-2024 vote swing.
Comment below on the Easter eggs in here like big blue swings in South Jordan (Daybreak), Orem (UVU new campus ballot drop box), Centerville/Bountiful, north/east Provo (educational polarization 3 cycles in a row), etc.
Comment below on the Easter eggs in here like big blue swings in South Jordan (Daybreak), Orem (UVU new campus ballot drop box), Centerville/Bountiful, north/east Provo (educational polarization 3 cycles in a row), etc.
May 23, 2025 at 3:00 AM
Bonus precinct-level maps of 2024 election results and 2020-2024 vote swing.
Comment below on the Easter eggs in here like big blue swings in South Jordan (Daybreak), Orem (UVU new campus ballot drop box), Centerville/Bountiful, north/east Provo (educational polarization 3 cycles in a row), etc.
Comment below on the Easter eggs in here like big blue swings in South Jordan (Daybreak), Orem (UVU new campus ballot drop box), Centerville/Bountiful, north/east Provo (educational polarization 3 cycles in a row), etc.
🔵NEW MAP: 81% (48/59) of suburban Utah metro Wasatch Front cities swung blue, 2020-2024.
📈Heavily Latino central cities like Ogden edged right a tiny bit--much less than other such US cities.
👀The 4-county area is the only major metro to not swing right in 2024: ATL, PIT, SEA were close, just +1 R.
📈Heavily Latino central cities like Ogden edged right a tiny bit--much less than other such US cities.
👀The 4-county area is the only major metro to not swing right in 2024: ATL, PIT, SEA were close, just +1 R.
May 23, 2025 at 3:00 AM
🔵NEW MAP: 81% (48/59) of suburban Utah metro Wasatch Front cities swung blue, 2020-2024.
📈Heavily Latino central cities like Ogden edged right a tiny bit--much less than other such US cities.
👀The 4-county area is the only major metro to not swing right in 2024: ATL, PIT, SEA were close, just +1 R.
📈Heavily Latino central cities like Ogden edged right a tiny bit--much less than other such US cities.
👀The 4-county area is the only major metro to not swing right in 2024: ATL, PIT, SEA were close, just +1 R.
Utah County has swung left (D +36) more than any other county in the state since 2004.
Utah has swung left (D +24) more than other state.
Provo, Utah County seat, has swung left (D +52) more than any other city in Utah.
Congrats to the new Utah Co. Democratic chair @darinself.com Let's go!
Utah has swung left (D +24) more than other state.
Provo, Utah County seat, has swung left (D +52) more than any other city in Utah.
Congrats to the new Utah Co. Democratic chair @darinself.com Let's go!
May 18, 2025 at 3:22 AM
Utah County has swung left (D +36) more than any other county in the state since 2004.
Utah has swung left (D +24) more than other state.
Provo, Utah County seat, has swung left (D +52) more than any other city in Utah.
Congrats to the new Utah Co. Democratic chair @darinself.com Let's go!
Utah has swung left (D +24) more than other state.
Provo, Utah County seat, has swung left (D +52) more than any other city in Utah.
Congrats to the new Utah Co. Democratic chair @darinself.com Let's go!
Whereas neighborhood racial segregation between Black and White Americans has decreased rapidly in Sunbelt cities like Orlando and Las Vegas, Rustbelt cities like Detroit, Chicago, Milwaukee, and even diverse NYC remain stubbornly segregated today.
These graphs show what we mean by two Americas:
These graphs show what we mean by two Americas:
May 2, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Whereas neighborhood racial segregation between Black and White Americans has decreased rapidly in Sunbelt cities like Orlando and Las Vegas, Rustbelt cities like Detroit, Chicago, Milwaukee, and even diverse NYC remain stubbornly segregated today.
These graphs show what we mean by two Americas:
These graphs show what we mean by two Americas:
Doug Massey and I argue that we have transformed from American Apartheid into two Americas: one stubbornly segregated, another rapidly integrating.
Most Black Americans live in stubbornly segregated metros @clancyny.bsky.social lists (+Detroit) (>60 out of 100)
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Most Black Americans live in stubbornly segregated metros @clancyny.bsky.social lists (+Detroit) (>60 out of 100)
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
May 2, 2025 at 8:06 PM
Doug Massey and I argue that we have transformed from American Apartheid into two Americas: one stubbornly segregated, another rapidly integrating.
Most Black Americans live in stubbornly segregated metros @clancyny.bsky.social lists (+Detroit) (>60 out of 100)
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Most Black Americans live in stubbornly segregated metros @clancyny.bsky.social lists (+Detroit) (>60 out of 100)
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Doug Massey and I argued that we have transformed from American Apartheid into two Americas: one stubbornly segregated, another rapidly integrating.
Most Black Americans live in metros you list (+Detroit) that remain highly segregated (>60 on a scale of 0-100).
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Most Black Americans live in metros you list (+Detroit) that remain highly segregated (>60 on a scale of 0-100).
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
May 2, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Doug Massey and I argued that we have transformed from American Apartheid into two Americas: one stubbornly segregated, another rapidly integrating.
Most Black Americans live in metros you list (+Detroit) that remain highly segregated (>60 on a scale of 0-100).
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Most Black Americans live in metros you list (+Detroit) that remain highly segregated (>60 on a scale of 0-100).
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Rep. Blake Moore #UT01 thinks the Trump administration should adhere to a recent SCOTUS ruling to facilitate the return of Kilmar Abrego Garcia:
“There should be an honoring of the Supreme Court by saying, ‘This individual needs to be brought back and come through the process,’” Moore said.
“There should be an honoring of the Supreme Court by saying, ‘This individual needs to be brought back and come through the process,’” Moore said.
April 30, 2025 at 9:33 PM
Rep. Blake Moore #UT01 thinks the Trump administration should adhere to a recent SCOTUS ruling to facilitate the return of Kilmar Abrego Garcia:
“There should be an honoring of the Supreme Court by saying, ‘This individual needs to be brought back and come through the process,’” Moore said.
“There should be an honoring of the Supreme Court by saying, ‘This individual needs to be brought back and come through the process,’” Moore said.
N=97 LDS respondents, or not a whole lot
www.prri.org/research/dem...
www.prri.org/research/dem...
April 30, 2025 at 4:26 PM
N=97 LDS respondents, or not a whole lot
www.prri.org/research/dem...
www.prri.org/research/dem...
A colossal waste and a terrorizing time whose effects will reverberate and lower enrollments, damage university research and teaching, and harm college town metro economies. And no real assurance international scholars and students are safe until this administration is over...
April 28, 2025 at 10:33 PM
A colossal waste and a terrorizing time whose effects will reverberate and lower enrollments, damage university research and teaching, and harm college town metro economies. And no real assurance international scholars and students are safe until this administration is over...
Excellent closing from @jamellebouie.net today.
April 23, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Excellent closing from @jamellebouie.net today.
Wow, talk about an effective opening paragraph:
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
April 22, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Wow, talk about an effective opening paragraph:
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
In fact, Utah's fertility rate declined by 3.4% the previous year, or more than the 2.8% decline in the most recent year--a slow-down in the rate of decrease.
Source: Utah Kem Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah (April 2025): d36oiwf74r1rap.cloudfront.net/wp-content/u... [PDF]
Source: Utah Kem Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah (April 2025): d36oiwf74r1rap.cloudfront.net/wp-content/u... [PDF]
April 22, 2025 at 6:26 PM
In fact, Utah's fertility rate declined by 3.4% the previous year, or more than the 2.8% decline in the most recent year--a slow-down in the rate of decrease.
Source: Utah Kem Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah (April 2025): d36oiwf74r1rap.cloudfront.net/wp-content/u... [PDF]
Source: Utah Kem Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah (April 2025): d36oiwf74r1rap.cloudfront.net/wp-content/u... [PDF]
The drop in the total fertility rate in Utah was roughly in line with the national decrease and statistically the same as in Alaska, Oregon, Missouri, Illinois, Florida, North Carolina, and Massachusetts.
There's really nothing extraordinary at all about Utah's change, just its starting point.
There's really nothing extraordinary at all about Utah's change, just its starting point.
April 22, 2025 at 6:26 PM
The drop in the total fertility rate in Utah was roughly in line with the national decrease and statistically the same as in Alaska, Oregon, Missouri, Illinois, Florida, North Carolina, and Massachusetts.
There's really nothing extraordinary at all about Utah's change, just its starting point.
There's really nothing extraordinary at all about Utah's change, just its starting point.
The Utah change is overblown: differences with other states ranked high in fertility is miniscule to none.
47/50 states saw TFR declines 2022-2023
Louisiana & Texas are only states with higher TFR and higher populations. Others are tiny states.
Utah decline is a long-term trend, not short-term.
47/50 states saw TFR declines 2022-2023
Louisiana & Texas are only states with higher TFR and higher populations. Others are tiny states.
Utah decline is a long-term trend, not short-term.
April 22, 2025 at 6:26 PM
The Utah change is overblown: differences with other states ranked high in fertility is miniscule to none.
47/50 states saw TFR declines 2022-2023
Louisiana & Texas are only states with higher TFR and higher populations. Others are tiny states.
Utah decline is a long-term trend, not short-term.
47/50 states saw TFR declines 2022-2023
Louisiana & Texas are only states with higher TFR and higher populations. Others are tiny states.
Utah decline is a long-term trend, not short-term.