Jan Stropek
@honzastropek.bsky.social
War in Ukraine and related geopolitics
Pinned
Jan Stropek
@honzastropek.bsky.social
· Sep 28
Summary:
The single biggest russian issue for financing the war in 2025 is the sharp decline in corporate lending, which directly affects the military-industrial complex
Budget 2026 (next post) follows the trend and means less money for the industrial complex and even directly for RuAF too.
The single biggest russian issue for financing the war in 2025 is the sharp decline in corporate lending, which directly affects the military-industrial complex
Budget 2026 (next post) follows the trend and means less money for the industrial complex and even directly for RuAF too.
Reposted by Jan Stropek
Discount for Russian Ural oil from Primorsk and Novorossiysk reached the highest this year to 19,4 USD per barrel vs 13-14 USD a week earlier and 11-12 USD before the sanctioning of Rosneft and Lukoil.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8194662
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8194662
Дисконт на нефть Urals достиг максимума за год
Подробнее на сайте
www.kommersant.ru
November 12, 2025 at 8:48 AM
Discount for Russian Ural oil from Primorsk and Novorossiysk reached the highest this year to 19,4 USD per barrel vs 13-14 USD a week earlier and 11-12 USD before the sanctioning of Rosneft and Lukoil.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8194662
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8194662
Reposted by Jan Stropek
‼️ Russia: “Saudi Arabia has announced discounts on oil for India and China to replace Russian barrels.”
How much more can Russia mark down their oil in response?
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/11/07/s...
How much more can Russia mark down their oil in response?
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/11/07/s...
November 7, 2025 at 5:50 PM
‼️ Russia: “Saudi Arabia has announced discounts on oil for India and China to replace Russian barrels.”
How much more can Russia mark down their oil in response?
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/11/07/s...
How much more can Russia mark down their oil in response?
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/11/07/s...
This may evolve in a promising way ...
Ho dei dubbi anche su controllo di Radiivka da parte russa, ma per ora lascio linee di controllo fino a qui.
November 3, 2025 at 8:11 PM
This may evolve in a promising way ...
Reposted by Jan Stropek
South Korea's exports to tiny Kyrgyzstan just reached half a billion Dollars in one month. This stuff is obviously not headed to Kyrgyzstan but is going to Russia. The West is guilty of a collective failure on Ukraine: chasing short term profits instead of shutting down autocrats. We must do better.
November 2, 2025 at 1:21 PM
South Korea's exports to tiny Kyrgyzstan just reached half a billion Dollars in one month. This stuff is obviously not headed to Kyrgyzstan but is going to Russia. The West is guilty of a collective failure on Ukraine: chasing short term profits instead of shutting down autocrats. We must do better.
To all the "UA manpower shortage" doomers out there:
October 31, 2025 at 7:10 AM
To all the "UA manpower shortage" doomers out there:
Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson confirms to Iltalehti that Sweden and Ukraine are negotiating on the sale of Gripen E fighters.
The Gripens have plenty of advantages for Ukraine, e.g. compatibility with Meteor and Taurus missiles and ability to use shorter and narrower runways (or streets).
The Gripens have plenty of advantages for Ukraine, e.g. compatibility with Meteor and Taurus missiles and ability to use shorter and narrower runways (or streets).
October 22, 2025 at 10:59 AM
Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson confirms to Iltalehti that Sweden and Ukraine are negotiating on the sale of Gripen E fighters.
The Gripens have plenty of advantages for Ukraine, e.g. compatibility with Meteor and Taurus missiles and ability to use shorter and narrower runways (or streets).
The Gripens have plenty of advantages for Ukraine, e.g. compatibility with Meteor and Taurus missiles and ability to use shorter and narrower runways (or streets).
Reposted by Jan Stropek
𝐍𝐨, 𝐃𝐮𝐭𝐜𝐡 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐢𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐬𝐮𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐔𝐒 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐮𝐭𝐜𝐡 𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐚𝐚𝐲 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐮𝐥.
𝑇ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑖𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝐷𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑠 𝑉𝐴𝐷𝑀 𝑅𝑒𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑘 (𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑙; 𝑀𝑜𝐷) 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴𝑘𝑒𝑟𝑏𝑜𝑜𝑚 (𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑙 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑙; 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑟 𝑀𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑦) 𝑑𝑖𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑦 [ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑙𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑒 -𝑊𝐵]: 👇
𝑇ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑖𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝐷𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑠 𝑉𝐴𝐷𝑀 𝑅𝑒𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑘 (𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑙; 𝑀𝑜𝐷) 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴𝑘𝑒𝑟𝑏𝑜𝑜𝑚 (𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑙 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑙; 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑟 𝑀𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑦) 𝑑𝑖𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑦 [ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑙𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑒 -𝑊𝐵]: 👇
October 19, 2025 at 3:18 PM
𝐍𝐨, 𝐃𝐮𝐭𝐜𝐡 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐢𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐬𝐮𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐔𝐒 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐮𝐭𝐜𝐡 𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐚𝐚𝐲 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐮𝐥.
𝑇ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑖𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝐷𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑠 𝑉𝐴𝐷𝑀 𝑅𝑒𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑘 (𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑙; 𝑀𝑜𝐷) 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴𝑘𝑒𝑟𝑏𝑜𝑜𝑚 (𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑙 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑙; 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑟 𝑀𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑦) 𝑑𝑖𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑦 [ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑙𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑒 -𝑊𝐵]: 👇
𝑇ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑖𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝐷𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑠 𝑉𝐴𝐷𝑀 𝑅𝑒𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑘 (𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑦 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑙; 𝑀𝑜𝐷) 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴𝑘𝑒𝑟𝑏𝑜𝑜𝑚 (𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑙 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑙; 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑟 𝑀𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑦) 𝑑𝑖𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑦 [ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑙𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑒 -𝑊𝐵]: 👇
Reposted by Jan Stropek
Christ, Trump just admitted he gave Zelensky nothing, but forced him to travel all the way to Washington to be told he needed to make concessions to Putin for "peace". He really just tortured the Ukrainian president because it makes him feel good.
October 17, 2025 at 9:04 PM
Christ, Trump just admitted he gave Zelensky nothing, but forced him to travel all the way to Washington to be told he needed to make concessions to Putin for "peace". He really just tortured the Ukrainian president because it makes him feel good.
US sanctions against chinese port addressing irainian oil seem to work, at least short term, and it's worth following how this issue evolves and how it affects their relations.
oilprice.com/Latest-Energ...
oilprice.com/Latest-Energ...
Tanker Bound for China Diverted After U.S. Sanctions Hit Rizhao Port | OilPrice.com
The U.S. has sanctioned China’s Rizhao Shihua Crude Oil Terminal, forcing the diversion of a major tanker and escalating tensions over Chinese imports of Iranian crude.
oilprice.com
October 15, 2025 at 5:41 PM
US sanctions against chinese port addressing irainian oil seem to work, at least short term, and it's worth following how this issue evolves and how it affects their relations.
oilprice.com/Latest-Energ...
oilprice.com/Latest-Energ...
Reposted by Jan Stropek
If you’re wondering how russia’s REPO creates inflation, AI gave a surprisingly good explanation.
October 15, 2025 at 8:34 AM
If you’re wondering how russia’s REPO creates inflation, AI gave a surprisingly good explanation.
The regions with budget deficits seem to simply start lacking money.
The Russians complained that payments to contract soldiers have been sharply reduced in the regions and that the resources of regional budgets have been exhausted
October 11, 2025 at 6:51 AM
The regions with budget deficits seem to simply start lacking money.
Investments completely stopped in russia this year. Did I say it? I think I did...
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/10/10/t...
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/10/10/t...
Центробанк зафиксировал резкое сокращение денежных потоков в экономике - Русская служба The Moscow Times
www.moscowtimes.ru
October 10, 2025 at 12:53 PM
Investments completely stopped in russia this year. Did I say it? I think I did...
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/10/10/t...
www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/10/10/t...
There is a non zero probability, that the Neptune launcher can be modified for launching Tomahawk, maybe it was intentional. What we sadly don't know is the inner diameter of the launching tube. Tomahawk has 53cm. Neptune has something very close (between 50-55cm) but I can't find the real value.
October 7, 2025 at 8:05 AM
There is a non zero probability, that the Neptune launcher can be modified for launching Tomahawk, maybe it was intentional. What we sadly don't know is the inner diameter of the launching tube. Tomahawk has 53cm. Neptune has something very close (between 50-55cm) but I can't find the real value.
Reposted by Jan Stropek
This morning, the Trump Administration’s Department of War gave me an ultimatum: call up your troops, or we will. It is absolutely outrageous and un-American to demand a Governor send military troops within our own borders and against our will.
October 4, 2025 at 6:10 PM
This morning, the Trump Administration’s Department of War gave me an ultimatum: call up your troops, or we will. It is absolutely outrageous and un-American to demand a Governor send military troops within our own borders and against our will.
US/EU politicians still have plenty of levers/bargaining chips to project more pressure on russia and should use them asap in this regard.
The offsite power outage at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is in its 11th day.
Three of 20 emergency diesel generators have failed.
Three of 20 emergency diesel generators have failed.
October 5, 2025 at 7:28 AM
US/EU politicians still have plenty of levers/bargaining chips to project more pressure on russia and should use them asap in this regard.
Reposted by Jan Stropek
China is providing Russia with satellite intelligence data for missile strikes on Ukraine, including targets owned by foreign investors, Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service reported.
October 4, 2025 at 8:13 AM
China is providing Russia with satellite intelligence data for missile strikes on Ukraine, including targets owned by foreign investors, Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service reported.
Reposted by Jan Stropek
Black market sellers in Khabarovsk krai's worst impacted districts are offering gasoline at 120 rubles per liter:
September 29, 2025 at 6:45 AM
Black market sellers in Khabarovsk krai's worst impacted districts are offering gasoline at 120 rubles per liter:
Summary:
The single biggest russian issue for financing the war in 2025 is the sharp decline in corporate lending, which directly affects the military-industrial complex
Budget 2026 (next post) follows the trend and means less money for the industrial complex and even directly for RuAF too.
The single biggest russian issue for financing the war in 2025 is the sharp decline in corporate lending, which directly affects the military-industrial complex
Budget 2026 (next post) follows the trend and means less money for the industrial complex and even directly for RuAF too.
September 28, 2025 at 6:13 AM
Summary:
The single biggest russian issue for financing the war in 2025 is the sharp decline in corporate lending, which directly affects the military-industrial complex
Budget 2026 (next post) follows the trend and means less money for the industrial complex and even directly for RuAF too.
The single biggest russian issue for financing the war in 2025 is the sharp decline in corporate lending, which directly affects the military-industrial complex
Budget 2026 (next post) follows the trend and means less money for the industrial complex and even directly for RuAF too.
On russian 2025 and 2026 budget - they already know they are fucked.
September 27, 2025 at 9:36 AM
On russian 2025 and 2026 budget - they already know they are fucked.
Reposted by Jan Stropek
1/ Russia appears to be running out of surface-to-air missiles, with air defence crews having to be reassigned to the infantry because they have nothing to fire. ⬇️
bsky.app/profile/anto...
bsky.app/profile/anto...
Beautiful kaboom as a Russian Buk-M2 surface-to-air missile system explodes.
Impressive fireworks courtesy of #Ukrainian Defenders from the 15th Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade "Black Forest".
The launcher, worth around $25 million, was completely destroyed.
Glory!
Impressive fireworks courtesy of #Ukrainian Defenders from the 15th Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade "Black Forest".
The launcher, worth around $25 million, was completely destroyed.
Glory!
September 26, 2025 at 8:18 AM
1/ Russia appears to be running out of surface-to-air missiles, with air defence crews having to be reassigned to the infantry because they have nothing to fire. ⬇️
bsky.app/profile/anto...
bsky.app/profile/anto...
Reposted by Jan Stropek
An Axios journalist asked what those working in the Kremlin should know after an attack on Kyiv’s government building. Zelensky answered plainly: first, know where your bomb shelters are. If you do not stop the war, you will need them.
September 25, 2025 at 10:00 AM
An Axios journalist asked what those working in the Kremlin should know after an attack on Kyiv’s government building. Zelensky answered plainly: first, know where your bomb shelters are. If you do not stop the war, you will need them.
Reposted by Jan Stropek
🤯🤯🤯 Trump:
I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.
I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.
September 23, 2025 at 7:00 PM
🤯🤯🤯 Trump:
I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.
I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.
To explain the graph of russian military investments decline. It's sadly pretty long, but I'd say it's worth reading.
September 21, 2025 at 9:27 AM
To explain the graph of russian military investments decline. It's sadly pretty long, but I'd say it's worth reading.
Is this trend of russian military investments the most important thing for a war of attrition? I'd probably say so...
September 20, 2025 at 10:17 PM
Is this trend of russian military investments the most important thing for a war of attrition? I'd probably say so...
Reposted by Jan Stropek
Russian milbloggers are deeply concerned about the situation near Dobropillia. The area they proudly advanced into is now at risk of becoming a pocket.
September 20, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Russian milbloggers are deeply concerned about the situation near Dobropillia. The area they proudly advanced into is now at risk of becoming a pocket.