FZucchi
@fzucchi.bsky.social
Option & Stocks for L/S positions; corp credit/derivatives; DeMark studies; I trade in time frames of a few wks to a few mths, and occasionally a few years.
Seen Bruce > 100x in last 45yrs, but this was 1 of the best: in my hometown of Milan, w/my brother from another mother, a virtual loop of Bruce feeding on the crowd feeding on Bruce, & Bruce dunking on our POS wanna-be tyrant, corrupt, waste of oxygen, sorry excuse for a president
July 4, 2025 at 5:49 AM
Seen Bruce > 100x in last 45yrs, but this was 1 of the best: in my hometown of Milan, w/my brother from another mother, a virtual loop of Bruce feeding on the crowd feeding on Bruce, & Bruce dunking on our POS wanna-be tyrant, corrupt, waste of oxygen, sorry excuse for a president
1/ The notion that orange ape is shaking hands and making deals w/ a high-ranking Al-Qaeda terrorist, while spitting in the face of every western country - countries who sacrificed their soldiers to back us in the fight against those very terrorists - is a new low even for trump. #MAGA #MAGAMorons
May 14, 2025 at 6:45 PM
1/ The notion that orange ape is shaking hands and making deals w/ a high-ranking Al-Qaeda terrorist, while spitting in the face of every western country - countries who sacrificed their soldiers to back us in the fight against those very terrorists - is a new low even for trump. #MAGA #MAGAMorons
1/ All quiet on the cred front after the massive rally of the last couple of days. Spreads r back to pre 4/2 levels & supportive of stks. After April putrid totals, May issuance has been very strong at > $100B MTD. Idxs r very o/bought on daily...
May 14, 2025 at 5:58 PM
1/ All quiet on the cred front after the massive rally of the last couple of days. Spreads r back to pre 4/2 levels & supportive of stks. After April putrid totals, May issuance has been very strong at > $100B MTD. Idxs r very o/bought on daily...
Reposted by FZucchi
the embarrassment plunges new depths every. fucking. day.
As part of the red-carpet treatment, Saudi officials arranged for a fully operational mobile McDonald’s unit to accompany President Trump during his stay.
According to local reports, the unit was set up near the Saudi Royal Court.
According to local reports, the unit was set up near the Saudi Royal Court.
May 13, 2025 at 5:07 PM
the embarrassment plunges new depths every. fucking. day.
Cross-currents in cred & stks continue. 3-mth VIX curve still < 0; IG/HY spreads still wider than when stks were at these prices b4 4/2.But issuance (most important) is catching up,w/ $30b so far this wk, & much > tdy as cos frontrun the Fed. Spec cred bears in IG CDX seem stuck in neutral for now.
May 6, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Cross-currents in cred & stks continue. 3-mth VIX curve still < 0; IG/HY spreads still wider than when stks were at these prices b4 4/2.But issuance (most important) is catching up,w/ $30b so far this wk, & much > tdy as cos frontrun the Fed. Spec cred bears in IG CDX seem stuck in neutral for now.
Reposted by FZucchi
Impeach and convict this m'fer NOW.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
May 4, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Impeach and convict this m'fer NOW.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Reposted by FZucchi
probably gonna be another fun quarter
5310 to end June would probably make everyone mad
5310 to end June would probably make everyone mad
May 2, 2025 at 5:07 PM
probably gonna be another fun quarter
5310 to end June would probably make everyone mad
5310 to end June would probably make everyone mad
1/ I may be totally off base, but my credit and volatility tells have served me (very) well for a (very) long time. The move off the lows to me looks like a helluva "bull trap". And if I am wrong, I can't think of any reasons why I should get longer at these prices...
May 2, 2025 at 4:51 PM
1/ I may be totally off base, but my credit and volatility tells have served me (very) well for a (very) long time. The move off the lows to me looks like a helluva "bull trap". And if I am wrong, I can't think of any reasons why I should get longer at these prices...
1/ YTD IG bond issuance = $730b; YTD HY bond issuance = $76b.This is the No.1 reason I'm often a bit dismissive of focusing on HY bonds/spreads:the size of the mkt is relatively insignificant.The 2d reason is that HY holders expect/shud expect losses so they r not likely to freak out if that happens
May 1, 2025 at 5:07 PM
1/ YTD IG bond issuance = $730b; YTD HY bond issuance = $76b.This is the No.1 reason I'm often a bit dismissive of focusing on HY bonds/spreads:the size of the mkt is relatively insignificant.The 2d reason is that HY holders expect/shud expect losses so they r not likely to freak out if that happens
As stks romp, IG spread is flat w/ breadth 2:1 to the bad; HY is leading, tighter by 9bps, w/ breadth 7:1 to the good; volume in both IG/HY is very light; IG CDX flat; 3-mth $VIX curve is still inverted by about 1pt. As confusing as it gets imho
May 1, 2025 at 2:56 PM
As stks romp, IG spread is flat w/ breadth 2:1 to the bad; HY is leading, tighter by 9bps, w/ breadth 7:1 to the good; volume in both IG/HY is very light; IG CDX flat; 3-mth $VIX curve is still inverted by about 1pt. As confusing as it gets imho
1/ A strange month going out with a very strange day: IG/HY at the worst levels of the day, +4.5/+15; IG CDX +1bp; almost no issuance; but stks at the best level of day; 3-mth $VIX curve still under water by 1pt. Total bond issuance for the month is the lowest for a month of April since 2013...
May 1, 2025 at 1:03 PM
1/ A strange month going out with a very strange day: IG/HY at the worst levels of the day, +4.5/+15; IG CDX +1bp; almost no issuance; but stks at the best level of day; 3-mth $VIX curve still under water by 1pt. Total bond issuance for the month is the lowest for a month of April since 2013...
Reposted by FZucchi
my favorite bit from the weekend was Bessent trying to pretend the utter chaos and dysfunction that is Trump's trade and tariff policy is driven by game theory!
"strategic uncertainty"
hahahaha
you're gonna see that a ton from me!
"strategic uncertainty"
hahahaha
you're gonna see that a ton from me!
April 28, 2025 at 3:12 PM
my favorite bit from the weekend was Bessent trying to pretend the utter chaos and dysfunction that is Trump's trade and tariff policy is driven by game theory!
"strategic uncertainty"
hahahaha
you're gonna see that a ton from me!
"strategic uncertainty"
hahahaha
you're gonna see that a ton from me!
Ever wonder why Iraqi men all had the same mustache as Saddam Hussein, or the rajneeshees all wore red clothing…?
Ever wondered why so many MAGA men kind of look the same?
The slim-fit uniform of grindset entrepreneurs and right-wing podcasters can be traced back decades, Derek Guy writes for Businessweek
The slim-fit uniform of grindset entrepreneurs and right-wing podcasters can be traced back decades, Derek Guy writes for Businessweek
Why So Many MAGA Men Look Like Joe Rogan
The slim-fit uniform of grindset entrepreneurs and right wing podcasters can be traced back decades.
bloom.bg
April 27, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Ever wonder why Iraqi men all had the same mustache as Saddam Hussein, or the rajneeshees all wore red clothing…?
Reposted by FZucchi
Good!
Denver is building so many new apartments that vacancy rates reached a 16-year high and the average rent has fallen below levels seen two years ago, according to the Apartment Association of Metro Denver.
The average apartment rent in metro Denver fell to $1,819 in the first quarter.
The average apartment rent in metro Denver fell to $1,819 in the first quarter.
Metro Denver apartment market erases two years of rent increases
Developers continue to deliver so many new apartments that vacancy rates have reached a 16-year high.
www.denverpost.com
April 27, 2025 at 1:47 AM
Good!
Reposted by FZucchi
BRUSUELAS: “.. investors have pushed U.S. five-year credit default swaps roughly 20 basis points higher. Those swaps now stand well above comparable risk to German and U.K. swaps, which reflects a modest loss in the safe haven status of U.S. Treasury securities." 👀
April 26, 2025 at 10:28 AM
BRUSUELAS: “.. investors have pushed U.S. five-year credit default swaps roughly 20 basis points higher. Those swaps now stand well above comparable risk to German and U.K. swaps, which reflects a modest loss in the safe haven status of U.S. Treasury securities." 👀
Reposted by FZucchi
I trade HY munis. No liquidity rn can drive a bus thru spreads.
April 24, 2025 at 6:09 PM
I trade HY munis. No liquidity rn can drive a bus thru spreads.
1/ IG/HY spreads -3/-1 still can't make a decent move relative to stks. 3-mth $VIX curve peeked above -3 and made a U-turn south. Also, IG trading breadth is 11:1 to the good but volume is tepid, and HY breadth is only 1:1 also on low volume...
April 24, 2025 at 5:49 PM
1/ IG/HY spreads -3/-1 still can't make a decent move relative to stks. 3-mth $VIX curve peeked above -3 and made a U-turn south. Also, IG trading breadth is 11:1 to the good but volume is tepid, and HY breadth is only 1:1 also on low volume...
Reposted by FZucchi
I mean if you’re China, why not just sit back and wait? I’m not rooting for China, I’m in favor of strategy, coherence and consistency with a positive goal that will boost US and global economic growth. None of that here.
April 23, 2025 at 11:17 PM
I mean if you’re China, why not just sit back and wait? I’m not rooting for China, I’m in favor of strategy, coherence and consistency with a positive goal that will boost US and global economic growth. None of that here.
Reposted by FZucchi
Remarkable how Trump dealt himself the worst possible hand to negotiate w/ China.
1st card: Enacted tariffs that threaten to tank the economy
2nd: Backs China into a corner.
3rd: Makes fed incapable of responding
4th: Tanks markets, bonds and the dollar
5th: no end game, no plan
1st card: Enacted tariffs that threaten to tank the economy
2nd: Backs China into a corner.
3rd: Makes fed incapable of responding
4th: Tanks markets, bonds and the dollar
5th: no end game, no plan
April 23, 2025 at 11:17 PM
Remarkable how Trump dealt himself the worst possible hand to negotiate w/ China.
1st card: Enacted tariffs that threaten to tank the economy
2nd: Backs China into a corner.
3rd: Makes fed incapable of responding
4th: Tanks markets, bonds and the dollar
5th: no end game, no plan
1st card: Enacted tariffs that threaten to tank the economy
2nd: Backs China into a corner.
3rd: Makes fed incapable of responding
4th: Tanks markets, bonds and the dollar
5th: no end game, no plan
Everything that comes out of the circus tent on PA Ave-good or bad-is almost certain to be walked back sooner than l8r. Every x that happens a piece of the econ dies as > & > biz throw in the towel on hiring/spending. The bad h/lines will hammer mkts > & >, while good h/lines will work <& <.
April 23, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Everything that comes out of the circus tent on PA Ave-good or bad-is almost certain to be walked back sooner than l8r. Every x that happens a piece of the econ dies as > & > biz throw in the towel on hiring/spending. The bad h/lines will hammer mkts > & >, while good h/lines will work <& <.
1/ W/ ref to last nites posts (↓): IG spreads -6.0 is good, not gr8; HY -25 btr than IG; 3-mth $VIX curve at -4 (from -5 at yday close) 100% unconvinced of rally;bond issuance a little btr; I've reloaded LOTs of low delta long dated indx puts, but also scaling into more #GEV long and a few others...
1/ Just got back to the screens to see that the orange ape looks to have folded like a wet noodle. Two thoughts: i) Even if the tariff issue is resolved w/ most of the world, we still have no idea where it will settle w/ China; that's a major econ hangover...
April 23, 2025 at 3:41 PM
1/ W/ ref to last nites posts (↓): IG spreads -6.0 is good, not gr8; HY -25 btr than IG; 3-mth $VIX curve at -4 (from -5 at yday close) 100% unconvinced of rally;bond issuance a little btr; I've reloaded LOTs of low delta long dated indx puts, but also scaling into more #GEV long and a few others...
1/ Just got back to the screens to see that the orange ape looks to have folded like a wet noodle. Two thoughts: i) Even if the tariff issue is resolved w/ most of the world, we still have no idea where it will settle w/ China; that's a major econ hangover...
April 23, 2025 at 12:04 AM
1/ Just got back to the screens to see that the orange ape looks to have folded like a wet noodle. Two thoughts: i) Even if the tariff issue is resolved w/ most of the world, we still have no idea where it will settle w/ China; that's a major econ hangover...
Reposted by FZucchi
AUTHERS: “.. Once confidence is lost and people try to repatriate money, the landslide can build momentum. It needed a catalyst, a first rock to slip, and Trump 2.0 seems to have provided it.”
@johnauthers.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
@johnauthers.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
April 22, 2025 at 9:05 AM
AUTHERS: “.. Once confidence is lost and people try to repatriate money, the landslide can build momentum. It needed a catalyst, a first rock to slip, and Trump 2.0 seems to have provided it.”
@johnauthers.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
@johnauthers.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...