FZucchi
@fzucchi.bsky.social
Option & Stocks for L/S positions; corp credit/derivatives; DeMark studies; I trade in time frames of a few wks to a few mths, and occasionally a few years.
Seen Bruce > 100x in last 45yrs, but this was 1 of the best: in my hometown of Milan, w/my brother from another mother, a virtual loop of Bruce feeding on the crowd feeding on Bruce, & Bruce dunking on our POS wanna-be tyrant, corrupt, waste of oxygen, sorry excuse for a president
July 4, 2025 at 5:49 AM
Seen Bruce > 100x in last 45yrs, but this was 1 of the best: in my hometown of Milan, w/my brother from another mother, a virtual loop of Bruce feeding on the crowd feeding on Bruce, & Bruce dunking on our POS wanna-be tyrant, corrupt, waste of oxygen, sorry excuse for a president
#QQQ touched the 200dma from below and turned south. If this is just a pullback before a break above the 200dma, imho it needs to hold $484ish on a closing basis, or the red trendline in the chart below whichever is higher.
March 26, 2025 at 4:15 PM
#QQQ touched the 200dma from below and turned south. If this is just a pullback before a break above the 200dma, imho it needs to hold $484ish on a closing basis, or the red trendline in the chart below whichever is higher.
#GEV CEO saying by end of summer their capacity shud be sold out thru 2028; AI only about 15% of backlog. Above > $400 it might have gotten ahead of itself, but < $300 it's pretty much the definition of GAARP imho.
GAAP EPS Est. ↓
GAAP EPS Est. ↓
March 11, 2025 at 4:27 PM
#GEV CEO saying by end of summer their capacity shud be sold out thru 2028; AI only about 15% of backlog. Above > $400 it might have gotten ahead of itself, but < $300 it's pretty much the definition of GAARP imho.
GAAP EPS Est. ↓
GAAP EPS Est. ↓
3-mth #VIX curve in puke mode. Generally from this level (inverted by 6.5pts) we shud b close 2a bounce. Only 2 stabs lower in last 3yrs (since 0DTE gambling became the thing).Caveat: LOTS of #SPY puts OI 4 Wed at 558. If that gives,more -ve gamma kicks in.Tdy & tmrw max put OI = 545. Stay safe 😜
March 10, 2025 at 6:14 PM
1/ The 4.5 points inverted 3-mth #VIX curve did the trick almost on the nose: mkt reversed when curve hit -4.89 (white line on chart/SPY red) and #QQQ hit the $480 level I highlighted on Mon in this piece filzucchi.substack.com/p/random-tho... That said, bounce wasn't convincing...
March 7, 2025 at 11:24 PM
1/ The 4.5 points inverted 3-mth #VIX curve did the trick almost on the nose: mkt reversed when curve hit -4.89 (white line on chart/SPY red) and #QQQ hit the $480 level I highlighted on Mon in this piece filzucchi.substack.com/p/random-tho... That said, bounce wasn't convincing...
1/ #SPY trading < 100dma. There have been only 3 closes below that ma in the last year. Also 50dma has turned downward sloping. #IWM shows textbook rejection at 200dma (chart ↓). It's also trading < 50wma for 1st time since Nov'23, and only $0.70 > neckline of a freaky looking H&S pattern (↓)...
February 26, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Re: #NVDA report: no idea what happens, but peeps r > worried than in Nov. ↓is the option Skew on Nov EPS day & tdy. Note how the whole term structure is higher (top line) and it skews bearish. For 2/28, max OI positions for puts & calls r at 140 strike,while Max $ pain is at 131. Good luck
February 26, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Re: #NVDA report: no idea what happens, but peeps r > worried than in Nov. ↓is the option Skew on Nov EPS day & tdy. Note how the whole term structure is higher (top line) and it skews bearish. For 2/28, max OI positions for puts & calls r at 140 strike,while Max $ pain is at 131. Good luck
4/ I’d trade our whole gov for 25% of 🇮🇹/ 🇫🇷 gov for the next 4 years, no questions asked.” #MAGA #MAGAMorons
February 19, 2025 at 12:00 AM
4/ I’d trade our whole gov for 25% of 🇮🇹/ 🇫🇷 gov for the next 4 years, no questions asked.” #MAGA #MAGAMorons
Since 0DTE options became the preferred gambling game the implied vol term structure has been meaningfully compressed. +3 on the 3-month #VIX curve(white) was the bulls sweetspot, now it's a pretty frothy level. As u can see ↓, most times that level was reached a correction followed; #SPY in red
February 14, 2025 at 7:21 PM
#RH has been the subj of a number of of scathing short reports, and just by listening to ccalls it's easy to conclude that the CEO is an egomaniacal asshole. As short interest goes in these names, 12% SI is not crazy high and the chart is now breaking.
February 11, 2025 at 5:30 PM
#RH has been the subj of a number of of scathing short reports, and just by listening to ccalls it's easy to conclude that the CEO is an egomaniacal asshole. As short interest goes in these names, 12% SI is not crazy high and the chart is now breaking.
The shitco parade will continue until all the shorts are dead.
December 17, 2024 at 12:11 AM
The shitco parade will continue until all the shorts are dead.
Here is a look at how #GEV rev and adj EBITDA margin estimates for the next 3yrs have changed over the last 6 months. No lack of optimism as you can see. IMHO this stock will be stuck b/w $280-360 for a while, so at $320 it shows the friction b/w optimists & realists
December 10, 2024 at 6:26 PM
Here is a look at how #GEV rev and adj EBITDA margin estimates for the next 3yrs have changed over the last 6 months. No lack of optimism as you can see. IMHO this stock will be stuck b/w $280-360 for a while, so at $320 it shows the friction b/w optimists & realists
And they said you can’t go wrong buying real estate bc they don’t make any more of it; that’s actually true in D.C. and still… (from Wash Biz Journal)
#CRE
#CRE
December 5, 2024 at 1:44 PM
And they said you can’t go wrong buying real estate bc they don’t make any more of it; that’s actually true in D.C. and still… (from Wash Biz Journal)
#CRE
#CRE
If people didn't know this is a chart of Eli Lilly, most wud be inclined to sell/short it against the 50 & 200 DMA.
December 4, 2024 at 5:00 PM
If people didn't know this is a chart of Eli Lilly, most wud be inclined to sell/short it against the 50 & 200 DMA.
For fast money types (& in light of JPow at 1:40pm), there's a notable -ve divergence b/w IG CDX (white line) and $SPY $QQQ (red/green lines - inverted scale)
December 4, 2024 at 4:55 PM
For fast money types (& in light of JPow at 1:40pm), there's a notable -ve divergence b/w IG CDX (white line) and $SPY $QQQ (red/green lines - inverted scale)
W/ this kinda whiplash in IG credit derivs today, bunch of traders are gonna need some "billboard-quality" injury lawyers by the end of the day.
$SPY $QQQ $IWM
$SPY $QQQ $IWM
November 19, 2024 at 5:14 PM
W/ this kinda whiplash in IG credit derivs today, bunch of traders are gonna need some "billboard-quality" injury lawyers by the end of the day.
$SPY $QQQ $IWM
$SPY $QQQ $IWM
Cud b, but if it inverts again w/ Fed cutting I'm scared 2c what's gonna do to mkts.The small no. of times the curve has univerted, it has always gotten steeper. Given how deeply & for how long the last inversion has been, a reinversion wud be the ulitmate "this x is different" event
November 18, 2024 at 6:40 PM
Cud b, but if it inverts again w/ Fed cutting I'm scared 2c what's gonna do to mkts.The small no. of times the curve has univerted, it has always gotten steeper. Given how deeply & for how long the last inversion has been, a reinversion wud be the ulitmate "this x is different" event