Emily Fry
@emilyfry.bsky.social
Senior Economist at Resolution Foundation, researching trade, growth and living standards.
Reposted by Emily Fry
🚨 Vacancies alert!
We're currently hiring for three new roles. Applications for all three will close on September 19th.
See details and how to apply here 👉 buff.ly/EjyZen5
We're currently hiring for three new roles. Applications for all three will close on September 19th.
See details and how to apply here 👉 buff.ly/EjyZen5
September 9, 2025 at 4:37 PM
🚨 Vacancies alert!
We're currently hiring for three new roles. Applications for all three will close on September 19th.
See details and how to apply here 👉 buff.ly/EjyZen5
We're currently hiring for three new roles. Applications for all three will close on September 19th.
See details and how to apply here 👉 buff.ly/EjyZen5
Personal update: I'm joining the Bank of England for six months - stepping away from my Resolution Foundation desk. I will be tweeting a bit less while I’m heads-down on policy work, but will see you on the other side!
June 30, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Personal update: I'm joining the Bank of England for six months - stepping away from my Resolution Foundation desk. I will be tweeting a bit less while I’m heads-down on policy work, but will see you on the other side!
Reposted by Emily Fry
Chart-heavy thread incoming. This is an attempt to survey the research to answer the question - were the forecasts predicting a lot of Brexit damage correct? 1/n.
The Constitution Society and Federal Trust asked me to do a survey of the evidence on the economics of Brexit, nine years on from the vote.
Hopefully it's a helpful reference. Short answer: the consensus was right - a large hit to GDP, trade and investment.
consoc.org.uk/publications...
Hopefully it's a helpful reference. Short answer: the consensus was right - a large hit to GDP, trade and investment.
consoc.org.uk/publications...
The Economic Impact of Brexit, Nine Years On: Was the Consensus Right? - The Constitution Society
John Springford analyses the economic consequences of Brexit and compares this predictions made at the time of the Leave vote.
consoc.org.uk
June 23, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Chart-heavy thread incoming. This is an attempt to survey the research to answer the question - were the forecasts predicting a lot of Brexit damage correct? 1/n.
Pay varies hugely across England: in 2024 weekly pay was just £610 in Liskeard to £1,130 in London.
Is this because high‑earning areas attract inherently higher‑earning people, or because the jobs located there pay more to any worker?
Our new @resfoundation.bsky.social report finds out.
Is this because high‑earning areas attract inherently higher‑earning people, or because the jobs located there pay more to any worker?
Our new @resfoundation.bsky.social report finds out.
June 23, 2025 at 11:04 AM
Pay varies hugely across England: in 2024 weekly pay was just £610 in Liskeard to £1,130 in London.
Is this because high‑earning areas attract inherently higher‑earning people, or because the jobs located there pay more to any worker?
Our new @resfoundation.bsky.social report finds out.
Is this because high‑earning areas attract inherently higher‑earning people, or because the jobs located there pay more to any worker?
Our new @resfoundation.bsky.social report finds out.
Reposted by Emily Fry
🚨 New research published today
Our latest report by Richmond Egyei @emilyfry.bsky.social @tasoskitsos.bsky.social @gthwaites.bsky.social @dalilariba.bsky.social & Enrico Vanino looks at the impact of place in regional inequality.
Read more ⬇️
buff.ly/ycjN6KI
Our latest report by Richmond Egyei @emilyfry.bsky.social @tasoskitsos.bsky.social @gthwaites.bsky.social @dalilariba.bsky.social & Enrico Vanino looks at the impact of place in regional inequality.
Read more ⬇️
buff.ly/ycjN6KI
June 23, 2025 at 7:28 AM
🚨 New research published today
Our latest report by Richmond Egyei @emilyfry.bsky.social @tasoskitsos.bsky.social @gthwaites.bsky.social @dalilariba.bsky.social & Enrico Vanino looks at the impact of place in regional inequality.
Read more ⬇️
buff.ly/ycjN6KI
Our latest report by Richmond Egyei @emilyfry.bsky.social @tasoskitsos.bsky.social @gthwaites.bsky.social @dalilariba.bsky.social & Enrico Vanino looks at the impact of place in regional inequality.
Read more ⬇️
buff.ly/ycjN6KI
Reposted by Emily Fry
There's a really nice @productivity.bsky.social episode here on why trade is great for productivity, with @bartvanark.bsky.social interviewing @emilyfry.bsky.social and others
Here's the Pocket Casts link
pca.st/episode/ddfe...
Here's the Pocket Casts link
pca.st/episode/ddfe...
Trade and UK Productivity: From Global Markets to Local Gains
pca.st
June 19, 2025 at 6:58 AM
There's a really nice @productivity.bsky.social episode here on why trade is great for productivity, with @bartvanark.bsky.social interviewing @emilyfry.bsky.social and others
Here's the Pocket Casts link
pca.st/episode/ddfe...
Here's the Pocket Casts link
pca.st/episode/ddfe...
Yesterday’s US GDP release showed how businesses can quickly respond to tariff threats.
Real US GDP fell 0.3% in Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024, dragged down by a surge in imports and inventories.
The headline number is tricky to interpret, but it raises a question: is the UK part of this import surge?
Real US GDP fell 0.3% in Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024, dragged down by a surge in imports and inventories.
The headline number is tricky to interpret, but it raises a question: is the UK part of this import surge?
May 1, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Yesterday’s US GDP release showed how businesses can quickly respond to tariff threats.
Real US GDP fell 0.3% in Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024, dragged down by a surge in imports and inventories.
The headline number is tricky to interpret, but it raises a question: is the UK part of this import surge?
Real US GDP fell 0.3% in Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024, dragged down by a surge in imports and inventories.
The headline number is tricky to interpret, but it raises a question: is the UK part of this import surge?
Reposted by Emily Fry
Short piece out tonight on what tariffs mean for UK living standards (h/t @emilyfry.bsky.social & @gthwaites.bsky.social). Key point: tariffs hurt the economy and destroy good jobs outside London & SE, so expect a policy response. But big risk is this turns into a global recession.
Trump Tariff Turmoil • Resolution Foundation
President Trump’s tariff announcements have taken a wrecking ball to the global system of international trade, pushing US tariff rates back to early 20th century levels. Following the suspension of ‘r...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
April 14, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Short piece out tonight on what tariffs mean for UK living standards (h/t @emilyfry.bsky.social & @gthwaites.bsky.social). Key point: tariffs hurt the economy and destroy good jobs outside London & SE, so expect a policy response. But big risk is this turns into a global recession.
There has been a lot of focus on the UK's direct export exposure to the US, but this chart is the one that worries me.
In 2019, $24bn worth of UK motor vehicle value added ended up in the US via supply chains.
That’s 22% of ALL Britain’s motor vehicle output.
In 2019, $24bn worth of UK motor vehicle value added ended up in the US via supply chains.
That’s 22% of ALL Britain’s motor vehicle output.
April 14, 2025 at 4:22 PM
There has been a lot of focus on the UK's direct export exposure to the US, but this chart is the one that worries me.
In 2019, $24bn worth of UK motor vehicle value added ended up in the US via supply chains.
That’s 22% of ALL Britain’s motor vehicle output.
In 2019, $24bn worth of UK motor vehicle value added ended up in the US via supply chains.
That’s 22% of ALL Britain’s motor vehicle output.
Reposted by Emily Fry
🚨New today - @resfoundation.bsky.social latest research on who benefits from public services - and what it means for the Spending Review.
👇
👇
New @resfoundation.bsky.social research out this morning from @emilyfry.bsky.social, @camronaref.bsky.social and I which uses the first ever comprehensive analysis of public service use across the income distribution to show how we can make public services better for low-to-middle income families.
April 9, 2025 at 10:43 AM
🚨New today - @resfoundation.bsky.social latest research on who benefits from public services - and what it means for the Spending Review.
👇
👇
Reposted by Emily Fry
The rare good-ish news story on the British economy—why Britain is surprisingly well-insulated from a tariff crash, at least compared to most of its peers:
Part, but not all of the answer is in quite how much (un-tariffed) services dominate British exports.
Link: www.economist.com/britain/202...
Part, but not all of the answer is in quite how much (un-tariffed) services dominate British exports.
Link: www.economist.com/britain/202...
April 8, 2025 at 5:24 PM
The rare good-ish news story on the British economy—why Britain is surprisingly well-insulated from a tariff crash, at least compared to most of its peers:
Part, but not all of the answer is in quite how much (un-tariffed) services dominate British exports.
Link: www.economist.com/britain/202...
Part, but not all of the answer is in quite how much (un-tariffed) services dominate British exports.
Link: www.economist.com/britain/202...
Reposted by Emily Fry
🚨Event tomorrow🚨
Public services are vital for families – providing ‘in kind’ benefits which provide a huge boost to the living standards of lower-income households.
Sign-up for our event tomorrow to discuss future provision ➡️ buff.ly/OVqX64M
Public services are vital for families – providing ‘in kind’ benefits which provide a huge boost to the living standards of lower-income households.
Sign-up for our event tomorrow to discuss future provision ➡️ buff.ly/OVqX64M
April 8, 2025 at 11:42 AM
🚨Event tomorrow🚨
Public services are vital for families – providing ‘in kind’ benefits which provide a huge boost to the living standards of lower-income households.
Sign-up for our event tomorrow to discuss future provision ➡️ buff.ly/OVqX64M
Public services are vital for families – providing ‘in kind’ benefits which provide a huge boost to the living standards of lower-income households.
Sign-up for our event tomorrow to discuss future provision ➡️ buff.ly/OVqX64M
What should the government prioritise in the Spending Review?
@camronaref.bsky.social, @zackleather.bsky.social & I built a distributional model of public services to help answer that. It's nerdy but also important.
And we're discussing tomorrow 👇
www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/publi...
@camronaref.bsky.social, @zackleather.bsky.social & I built a distributional model of public services to help answer that. It's nerdy but also important.
And we're discussing tomorrow 👇
www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/publi...
Making public services better for low-to-middle income families • Resolution Foundation
Despite the cuts announced in the Chancellor’s Spring Statement, spending on public services is set to be on average £43 billion higher over the years of the upcoming Spending Review, compared with wh...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
April 8, 2025 at 11:45 AM
What should the government prioritise in the Spending Review?
@camronaref.bsky.social, @zackleather.bsky.social & I built a distributional model of public services to help answer that. It's nerdy but also important.
And we're discussing tomorrow 👇
www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/publi...
@camronaref.bsky.social, @zackleather.bsky.social & I built a distributional model of public services to help answer that. It's nerdy but also important.
And we're discussing tomorrow 👇
www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/publi...
Reposted by Emily Fry
We have an excellent event tomorrow morning on how the Government can turnaround its economic policy at the Spending Review with David Gauke and Sandra McNally: www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/publi.... Will feature new work on who benefits from public services by @emilyfry.bsky.social.
Making public services better for low-to-middle income families • Resolution Foundation
Despite the cuts announced in the Chancellor’s Spring Statement, spending on public services is set to be on average £43 billion higher over the years of the upcoming Spending Review, compared with wh...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
April 8, 2025 at 9:25 AM
We have an excellent event tomorrow morning on how the Government can turnaround its economic policy at the Spending Review with David Gauke and Sandra McNally: www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/publi.... Will feature new work on who benefits from public services by @emilyfry.bsky.social.
Reposted by Emily Fry
With Trump's new tariffs coming into effect, how should the UK respond?
In their piece from February, @emilyfry.bsky.social and @gthwaites.bsky.social suggested we should be cautious about retaliating.
Read more➡️ buff.ly/9Z9LRmK
In their piece from February, @emilyfry.bsky.social and @gthwaites.bsky.social suggested we should be cautious about retaliating.
Read more➡️ buff.ly/9Z9LRmK
April 4, 2025 at 3:22 PM
With Trump's new tariffs coming into effect, how should the UK respond?
In their piece from February, @emilyfry.bsky.social and @gthwaites.bsky.social suggested we should be cautious about retaliating.
Read more➡️ buff.ly/9Z9LRmK
In their piece from February, @emilyfry.bsky.social and @gthwaites.bsky.social suggested we should be cautious about retaliating.
Read more➡️ buff.ly/9Z9LRmK
Brilliant rapid analysis of new US tariffs
🚨 KITE Insta-Analysis: New "reciprocal" US tariffs are serious. We ran both status quo (tariffs until April 2 incl. retaliation) and newly announced reciprocal tariff regime through the KITE model. (Non-) spoiler: 🇺🇸 hits itself the hardest. NB: Short-run, extremely ad-hoc. 1/n
April 3, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Brilliant rapid analysis of new US tariffs
Reposted by Emily Fry
Should the UK retaliate if Trump imposes tariffs?
Economic case for retaliation is weak, but the political case is harder to judge. Hinges on whether you think retaliating creates leverage for future negotiations
Overall, a tough decision and I could see it going either way
Economic case for retaliation is weak, but the political case is harder to judge. Hinges on whether you think retaliating creates leverage for future negotiations
Overall, a tough decision and I could see it going either way
April 2, 2025 at 8:02 AM
Should the UK retaliate if Trump imposes tariffs?
Economic case for retaliation is weak, but the political case is harder to judge. Hinges on whether you think retaliating creates leverage for future negotiations
Overall, a tough decision and I could see it going either way
Economic case for retaliation is weak, but the political case is harder to judge. Hinges on whether you think retaliating creates leverage for future negotiations
Overall, a tough decision and I could see it going either way
Reposted by Emily Fry
Today might be the day Donald Trump slaps tariffs on UK goods — because he thinks VAT is a tariff. Yes, he's wrong. But the reason *why* he's wrong is fun.
So here's a 🧵 on the nerdy detail of VAT: via Jaffa Cakes and an economic theorem from 1936.
buff.ly/6Lms19H
So here's a 🧵 on the nerdy detail of VAT: via Jaffa Cakes and an economic theorem from 1936.
buff.ly/6Lms19H
buff.ly
April 2, 2025 at 8:34 AM
Today might be the day Donald Trump slaps tariffs on UK goods — because he thinks VAT is a tariff. Yes, he's wrong. But the reason *why* he's wrong is fun.
So here's a 🧵 on the nerdy detail of VAT: via Jaffa Cakes and an economic theorem from 1936.
buff.ly/6Lms19H
So here's a 🧵 on the nerdy detail of VAT: via Jaffa Cakes and an economic theorem from 1936.
buff.ly/6Lms19H
Key chart for Britain as we head into a tariff-ying April.
Brexit has really hammered the UK car industry. Trump tariffs coming next. Another bump for my piece on wrong-headed minimising by Policy Exchange and Jeremy Hunt
jspringford.substack.com/p/policy-exc...
jspringford.substack.com/p/policy-exc...
March 28, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Key chart for Britain as we head into a tariff-ying April.
Delayed UK trade data for Jan out today from ONS reports strong monthly growth in UK exports: goods +6.3% & services +1.9%.
But, the bigger news is an upward revision to trade in 2023 & 2024: services exports were revised +7.3% (£34.3bn) in 2024, and services imports +5.7% (£17.1bn).
But, the bigger news is an upward revision to trade in 2023 & 2024: services exports were revised +7.3% (£34.3bn) in 2024, and services imports +5.7% (£17.1bn).
March 28, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Delayed UK trade data for Jan out today from ONS reports strong monthly growth in UK exports: goods +6.3% & services +1.9%.
But, the bigger news is an upward revision to trade in 2023 & 2024: services exports were revised +7.3% (£34.3bn) in 2024, and services imports +5.7% (£17.1bn).
But, the bigger news is an upward revision to trade in 2023 & 2024: services exports were revised +7.3% (£34.3bn) in 2024, and services imports +5.7% (£17.1bn).
Reposted by Emily Fry
The big-picture outlook for living standards remains grim after the Chancellor’s Spring Statement.
It’s particularly dismal for the poorer half of Britain, who are set to become £500 a year poorer over the Parliament.
Here’s what you need to know 🧵 ⤵️ buff.ly/5CHyJII
It’s particularly dismal for the poorer half of Britain, who are set to become £500 a year poorer over the Parliament.
Here’s what you need to know 🧵 ⤵️ buff.ly/5CHyJII
March 27, 2025 at 1:00 PM
The big-picture outlook for living standards remains grim after the Chancellor’s Spring Statement.
It’s particularly dismal for the poorer half of Britain, who are set to become £500 a year poorer over the Parliament.
Here’s what you need to know 🧵 ⤵️ buff.ly/5CHyJII
It’s particularly dismal for the poorer half of Britain, who are set to become £500 a year poorer over the Parliament.
Here’s what you need to know 🧵 ⤵️ buff.ly/5CHyJII
Reposted by Emily Fry
The most extreme examples are couples on UC where one is disabled and the other cares for them. If the disabled member loses PIP eligibility, the other would lose the UC carer element and they would also likely lose from the UC health cut. The loss could total £10,300 by 2029-30 (current prices)
March 27, 2025 at 11:54 AM
The most extreme examples are couples on UC where one is disabled and the other cares for them. If the disabled member loses PIP eligibility, the other would lose the UC carer element and they would also likely lose from the UC health cut. The loss could total £10,300 by 2029-30 (current prices)
A couple of striking charts from our spending response to the Chancellor's Spring Statement yesterday.
1) Despite it being billed as a spending consolidation, real terms spending will be +£1.1 billion higher over the years of the 2025 Spending Review than it was expected to be in the Autumn Budget.
1) Despite it being billed as a spending consolidation, real terms spending will be +£1.1 billion higher over the years of the 2025 Spending Review than it was expected to be in the Autumn Budget.
March 27, 2025 at 11:38 AM
A couple of striking charts from our spending response to the Chancellor's Spring Statement yesterday.
1) Despite it being billed as a spending consolidation, real terms spending will be +£1.1 billion higher over the years of the 2025 Spending Review than it was expected to be in the Autumn Budget.
1) Despite it being billed as a spending consolidation, real terms spending will be +£1.1 billion higher over the years of the 2025 Spending Review than it was expected to be in the Autumn Budget.
Great explainer from @benchu.bsky.social on whether to expect austerity tomorrow
March 25, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Great explainer from @benchu.bsky.social on whether to expect austerity tomorrow