JamesSmithRF
@jamessmithrf.bsky.social
Research Director at the Resolution Foundation. Previous lives at the Bank of England and in the civil service. Focussed mainly on macroeconomics (mainly).
As expected, BoE cuts rates by 0.25ppts to 3.75%, the sixth cut in this cycle on a tighter-than-expected 5-4 vote. Bigger question for today, though, is how BoE sees balance of stubborn inflation and a weakening labour market. A short thread on that to follow...
December 18, 2025 at 12:05 PM
As expected, BoE cuts rates by 0.25ppts to 3.75%, the sixth cut in this cycle on a tighter-than-expected 5-4 vote. Bigger question for today, though, is how BoE sees balance of stubborn inflation and a weakening labour market. A short thread on that to follow...
Let's try that again! Welcome, surprise fall in UK inflation this morning with CPI at 3.2% in November, down from 3.6% in October (market and BoE expectations were for a smaller fall). This release surely nails on a rate cut from BoE tomorrow. Short thread to follow...
December 17, 2025 at 7:37 AM
Let's try that again! Welcome, surprise fall in UK inflation this morning with CPI at 3.2% in November, down from 3.6% in October (market and BoE expectations were for a smaller fall). This release surely nails on a rate cut from BoE tomorrow. Short thread to follow...
BoE loosened capital standards this morning and upped the emphasis on growth. Clearly fits with the government's agenda, but raises questions about the future safety of the financial system. Helpful thread on all today's announcements below.
The Bank of England published its latest Financial Stability Report this morning. The big news was a reduction of the financial buffers that UK banks need to hold. But what did the report tell us about the financial health of British households and businesses?
December 2, 2025 at 2:32 PM
BoE loosened capital standards this morning and upped the emphasis on growth. Clearly fits with the government's agenda, but raises questions about the future safety of the financial system. Helpful thread on all today's announcements below.
In case you have finished having a row about the Budget process, here's some content on the actual Budget substance👇. (Great to do this with @lseinequalities.bsky.social)
Rachel Reeves’s 2025 Budget pairs fiscal repair with measures to counter child poverty and the cost-of-living crisis.
In our latest blog post, James Smith of @resfoundation.bsky.social asks: was the Budget progressive overall? #LSEInequalitiesBlog
In our latest blog post, James Smith of @resfoundation.bsky.social asks: was the Budget progressive overall? #LSEInequalitiesBlog
Fiscal repair and cost-of-living relief: The Budget’s twin challenges
Rachel Reeves’s 2025 Budget pairs fiscal repair with measures to counter child poverty and the cost-of-living crisis. Was it a progressive Budget overall?
buff.ly
December 2, 2025 at 10:13 AM
In case you have finished having a row about the Budget process, here's some content on the actual Budget substance👇. (Great to do this with @lseinequalities.bsky.social)
New Household Cost Indices data out this morning show inflation is higher for renters, those on lower incomes, younger households and those with children. Unsurprisingly, renters are doing worse because rents are going up faster than mortgage costs.
November 28, 2025 at 11:25 AM
New Household Cost Indices data out this morning show inflation is higher for renters, those on lower incomes, younger households and those with children. Unsurprisingly, renters are doing worse because rents are going up faster than mortgage costs.
Read all about yesterday's Budget here (with huge congrats to the @resolutionfoundation.org for amazing overnight analysis).
🚨 Overnight Budget analysis now live 📢
Read 'Stairway to headroom' to put the Autumn Budget decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context.
The Chancellor has raced ahead with cost of living support but tax rises and spending cuts loom ⤵️ buff.ly/U9ZeozU
Read 'Stairway to headroom' to put the Autumn Budget decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context.
The Chancellor has raced ahead with cost of living support but tax rises and spending cuts loom ⤵️ buff.ly/U9ZeozU
November 27, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Read all about yesterday's Budget here (with huge congrats to the @resolutionfoundation.org for amazing overnight analysis).
Reposted by JamesSmithRF
Kudos to @resolutionfoundation.org , they foresaw a much rosier forecast of Growth despite the productivity downgrade, and they nailed it
Applause to @ruthcurtice.bsky.social @adamcorlett.bsky.social @jamessmithrf.bsky.social or whichever genius is responsible.
Applause to @ruthcurtice.bsky.social @adamcorlett.bsky.social @jamessmithrf.bsky.social or whichever genius is responsible.
November 26, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Kudos to @resolutionfoundation.org , they foresaw a much rosier forecast of Growth despite the productivity downgrade, and they nailed it
Applause to @ruthcurtice.bsky.social @adamcorlett.bsky.social @jamessmithrf.bsky.social or whichever genius is responsible.
Applause to @ruthcurtice.bsky.social @adamcorlett.bsky.social @jamessmithrf.bsky.social or whichever genius is responsible.
Follow along live! (or read the OBR document!)
Live posting about the speech feels slightly unnecessary when all the details are out. But I'm a sucker for tradition nonetheless.
November 26, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Follow along live! (or read the OBR document!)
Reposted by JamesSmithRF
We'll stay up all night crunching Budget numbers, so you don't have to.
Join us On Thursday morning to learn what it means for the public, markets & cost of living ⤵️ buff.ly/drrsXC8
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social, @jamessmithrf.bsky.social, @kamalahmednews.bsky.social, Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes
Join us On Thursday morning to learn what it means for the public, markets & cost of living ⤵️ buff.ly/drrsXC8
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social, @jamessmithrf.bsky.social, @kamalahmednews.bsky.social, Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes
November 24, 2025 at 9:23 AM
We'll stay up all night crunching Budget numbers, so you don't have to.
Join us On Thursday morning to learn what it means for the public, markets & cost of living ⤵️ buff.ly/drrsXC8
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social, @jamessmithrf.bsky.social, @kamalahmednews.bsky.social, Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes
Join us On Thursday morning to learn what it means for the public, markets & cost of living ⤵️ buff.ly/drrsXC8
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social, @jamessmithrf.bsky.social, @kamalahmednews.bsky.social, Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes
Welcome reforms on minimum wage enforcement coming with the Budget.
Good to see this story over the weekend that the Government is doubling down on 'naming and shaming' employers who have been found to underpay the minimum wage. Our past research has shown that reputational concerns can help convince employers to play by the rules. www.thesun.co.uk/money/374030...
Rogue bosses face tougher 'naming and shaming' over minimum wage breaches
ROGUE bosses are set for more regular “naming and shaming” to ensure they pay national minimum wage workers the full amount. Businesses breaking the rules will have no hiding place in a gover…
www.thesun.co.uk
November 24, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Welcome reforms on minimum wage enforcement coming with the Budget.
Final public finances release before the Budget shows borrowing was slightly above market expectations at £17.4bn in October. Year-to-date borrowing was £116.8bn, £9.9bn above the OBR forecast. This comes too late for next week's forecast but is a key snapshot of the pub finances. Thread to follow.
November 21, 2025 at 7:16 AM
Final public finances release before the Budget shows borrowing was slightly above market expectations at £17.4bn in October. Year-to-date borrowing was £116.8bn, £9.9bn above the OBR forecast. This comes too late for next week's forecast but is a key snapshot of the pub finances. Thread to follow.
UK CPI inflation begins its long march back to 2%, falling from 3.8% in September to 3.6% in October. This is a welcome decrease but the BoE says it will be a long path down and families are still struggling with the high cost of living. The Chancellor shd act at the Budget. Thread to follow...
November 19, 2025 at 7:58 AM
UK CPI inflation begins its long march back to 2%, falling from 3.8% in September to 3.6% in October. This is a welcome decrease but the BoE says it will be a long path down and families are still struggling with the high cost of living. The Chancellor shd act at the Budget. Thread to follow...
Reposted by JamesSmithRF
What can we expect from the Budget?
Join us the morning after as we unpack what Autumn Budget 2025 means for the public, financial markets & cost of living
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social will discuss w/ @jamessmithrf.bsky.social @kamalahmednews.bsky.social Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes
buff.ly/drrsXC8
Join us the morning after as we unpack what Autumn Budget 2025 means for the public, financial markets & cost of living
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social will discuss w/ @jamessmithrf.bsky.social @kamalahmednews.bsky.social Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes
buff.ly/drrsXC8
November 16, 2025 at 5:18 PM
What can we expect from the Budget?
Join us the morning after as we unpack what Autumn Budget 2025 means for the public, financial markets & cost of living
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social will discuss w/ @jamessmithrf.bsky.social @kamalahmednews.bsky.social Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes
buff.ly/drrsXC8
Join us the morning after as we unpack what Autumn Budget 2025 means for the public, financial markets & cost of living
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social will discuss w/ @jamessmithrf.bsky.social @kamalahmednews.bsky.social Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes
buff.ly/drrsXC8
Disappointing UK GDP this morning showing growth of just 0.1% in Q3, slightly below BoE and market expectations (0.2%). The good news for the Chancellor is this comes to late to be included in Budget forecasts - but this underlines the growth challenge we face. Thread to follow...
November 13, 2025 at 7:17 AM
Disappointing UK GDP this morning showing growth of just 0.1% in Q3, slightly below BoE and market expectations (0.2%). The good news for the Chancellor is this comes to late to be included in Budget forecasts - but this underlines the growth challenge we face. Thread to follow...
The new BoE projections databank is a thing of beauty. Big step forward in terms of forecast transparency. 👏👏👏
www.bankofengland.co.uk
November 6, 2025 at 4:45 PM
The new BoE projections databank is a thing of beauty. Big step forward in terms of forecast transparency. 👏👏👏
Bank of England on hold at 4% on tight 5-4 vote with MPC minutes suggesting closer-than-expected decision. Big issue for today is outlook for inflation and new BoE comms. But this is also a key decision for the Chancellor ahead of the Budget. Thread on all that to follow...
November 6, 2025 at 12:14 PM
Bank of England on hold at 4% on tight 5-4 vote with MPC minutes suggesting closer-than-expected decision. Big issue for today is outlook for inflation and new BoE comms. But this is also a key decision for the Chancellor ahead of the Budget. Thread on all that to follow...
Want to know what Rachel Reeves is talking about today? We have all the Budget issues covered in our (@resfoundation.bsky.social) preview:
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
November 4, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Want to know what Rachel Reeves is talking about today? We have all the Budget issues covered in our (@resfoundation.bsky.social) preview:
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
It's me! Talking all things Budget related.
The Budget will be a pivotal moment for a Government looking to improve its mood music.
@jamessmithrf.bsky.social explains why the Chx should prioritise:
🏦 The public finances
👛 The cost of living
📃 Payslips
Read 'Black holes and consolidations' to learn more ⤵️ buff.ly/XPioKOp
@jamessmithrf.bsky.social explains why the Chx should prioritise:
🏦 The public finances
👛 The cost of living
📃 Payslips
Read 'Black holes and consolidations' to learn more ⤵️ buff.ly/XPioKOp
November 4, 2025 at 2:26 PM
It's me! Talking all things Budget related.
Disappointing UK PMI this morning with only a small bounce back after chunky fall in September. This is a key indicator for the BoE so the sliver of good news is that this probably keeps hopes of a rate cut alive for November.
October 24, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Disappointing UK PMI this morning with only a small bounce back after chunky fall in September. This is a key indicator for the BoE so the sliver of good news is that this probably keeps hopes of a rate cut alive for November.
Want to know what is going on with uprating benefits after yesterday's inflation data? @lalithatry.bsky.social has the answers:
New spotlight from me covering what the latest inflation data means for benefit uprating out now. Here’s a quick summary:
October 23, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Want to know what is going on with uprating benefits after yesterday's inflation data? @lalithatry.bsky.social has the answers:
UK CPI inflation finally surprised to the downside in September at 3.8% (4.0% expected). This is good news for mortgagors as it makes it more likely that the BoE will cut rates next month, but comes in key month for benefits uprating. Thread on all the details to follow...
October 22, 2025 at 6:22 AM
UK CPI inflation finally surprised to the downside in September at 3.8% (4.0% expected). This is good news for mortgagors as it makes it more likely that the BoE will cut rates next month, but comes in key month for benefits uprating. Thread on all the details to follow...
This morning's public finances release is the final set of meaningful number we get before the Budget. Borrowing was £20.2bn in September, close to official and market expectations BUT is running around £7.1bn above the OBR forecast year to date. Short thread to follow...
October 21, 2025 at 6:25 AM
This morning's public finances release is the final set of meaningful number we get before the Budget. Borrowing was £20.2bn in September, close to official and market expectations BUT is running around £7.1bn above the OBR forecast year to date. Short thread to follow...
This morning's data show UK GDP growth was 0.3% in the three months to August, with output expanding 0.1% on the month, in line with market expectations. Worrying thing in this release is the flatlining of the all-important service sector in July and August. A short thread on this to follow...
October 16, 2025 at 6:17 AM
This morning's data show UK GDP growth was 0.3% in the three months to August, with output expanding 0.1% on the month, in line with market expectations. Worrying thing in this release is the flatlining of the all-important service sector in July and August. A short thread on this to follow...
Great opportunity to come and help shape our work here @resfoundation.bsky.social: www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp... (although you will have to work with me....)
Research Director • Resolution Foundation
The Resolution Foundation is looking for an exceptional candidate to help lead our research team. This is an exciting opportunity to join the Foundation’s senior leadership as we seek to turn around t...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
October 15, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Great opportunity to come and help shape our work here @resfoundation.bsky.social: www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp... (although you will have to work with me....)
IMF forecasts being widely reported. In truth, not a lot of news: growth is stronger in 2025, reflecting outturns, 2026 has been revised down, partly due to tariffs, v.similar to BoE fcast changes. Expect OBR to also revise 2025 up and 2026 onwards down (although likely by more) in November.
October 14, 2025 at 7:04 PM
IMF forecasts being widely reported. In truth, not a lot of news: growth is stronger in 2025, reflecting outturns, 2026 has been revised down, partly due to tariffs, v.similar to BoE fcast changes. Expect OBR to also revise 2025 up and 2026 onwards down (although likely by more) in November.