JamesSmithRF
@jamessmithrf.bsky.social
Research Director at the Resolution Foundation. Previous lives at the Bank of England and in the civil service. Focussed mainly on macroeconomics (mainly).
Great piece out this morning on the bleak prospects for living standards led by @louisemurphy.bsky.social 👏👏👏
Read more in our new Living Standards Outlook, published today: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
February 10, 2026 at 10:43 AM
Great piece out this morning on the bleak prospects for living standards led by @louisemurphy.bsky.social 👏👏👏
Reposted by JamesSmithRF
Families across Britain have experienced two decades of poor income growth, and the outlook for the rest of the 2020s isn't much better.
In fact, the OBR's projection for income growth for the rest of this decade is worse than any of its previous ones...
In fact, the OBR's projection for income growth for the rest of this decade is worse than any of its previous ones...
February 10, 2026 at 7:45 AM
Families across Britain have experienced two decades of poor income growth, and the outlook for the rest of the 2020s isn't much better.
In fact, the OBR's projection for income growth for the rest of this decade is worse than any of its previous ones...
In fact, the OBR's projection for income growth for the rest of this decade is worse than any of its previous ones...
Reposted by JamesSmithRF
Powerful and thought-provoking new report from @resolutionfoundation.org out today and well worth a read www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Unsung Britain • Resolution Foundation
The 13 million working-age families across the poorer half of the country are widely courted by politicians. No party can win elections without their votes, and the country cannot succeed without thei...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
February 10, 2026 at 9:03 AM
Powerful and thought-provoking new report from @resolutionfoundation.org out today and well worth a read www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Reposted by JamesSmithRF
We're now hearing from our brilliant first panel.
Tune into the livestream here to find out what they have to say ⤵️ buff.ly/TbXMmu8
Tune into the livestream here to find out what they have to say ⤵️ buff.ly/TbXMmu8
February 10, 2026 at 9:36 AM
We're now hearing from our brilliant first panel.
Tune into the livestream here to find out what they have to say ⤵️ buff.ly/TbXMmu8
Tune into the livestream here to find out what they have to say ⤵️ buff.ly/TbXMmu8
Reposted by JamesSmithRF
The Unsung Britain conference is now hearing from Ashwin Prasad, the Chief Executive Officer of Tesco UK.
"My perspective as a major employer in this country is that far fewer people are in work than could be."
"My perspective as a major employer in this country is that far fewer people are in work than could be."
February 10, 2026 at 10:33 AM
The Unsung Britain conference is now hearing from Ashwin Prasad, the Chief Executive Officer of Tesco UK.
"My perspective as a major employer in this country is that far fewer people are in work than could be."
"My perspective as a major employer in this country is that far fewer people are in work than could be."
Reposted by JamesSmithRF
Working isn't working. Our analysis confirms that work is not a guaranteed route out of poverty.
In the latest data, the majority (55 per cent) of non-pensioner families in poverty had someone in work. This is up from fewer than two-in-five families in the mid-1990s.
In the latest data, the majority (55 per cent) of non-pensioner families in poverty had someone in work. This is up from fewer than two-in-five families in the mid-1990s.
February 10, 2026 at 10:05 AM
Working isn't working. Our analysis confirms that work is not a guaranteed route out of poverty.
In the latest data, the majority (55 per cent) of non-pensioner families in poverty had someone in work. This is up from fewer than two-in-five families in the mid-1990s.
In the latest data, the majority (55 per cent) of non-pensioner families in poverty had someone in work. This is up from fewer than two-in-five families in the mid-1990s.
Reposted by JamesSmithRF
🚨 Major NEW research published today 🚨
Our book Unsung Britain reveals that squeezed families now face waiting more than a lifetime for the doubling of living standards we used to enjoy every 40 years.
Full findings here 👉 buff.ly/7WcqrbQ
Our book Unsung Britain reveals that squeezed families now face waiting more than a lifetime for the doubling of living standards we used to enjoy every 40 years.
Full findings here 👉 buff.ly/7WcqrbQ
February 10, 2026 at 8:00 AM
🚨 Major NEW research published today 🚨
Our book Unsung Britain reveals that squeezed families now face waiting more than a lifetime for the doubling of living standards we used to enjoy every 40 years.
Full findings here 👉 buff.ly/7WcqrbQ
Our book Unsung Britain reveals that squeezed families now face waiting more than a lifetime for the doubling of living standards we used to enjoy every 40 years.
Full findings here 👉 buff.ly/7WcqrbQ
At our Resolution Foundation conference we are talking about the poorer half of Britain. Great work from the RF team. For more see: www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/unsun...
February 10, 2026 at 9:56 AM
At our Resolution Foundation conference we are talking about the poorer half of Britain. Great work from the RF team. For more see: www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/unsun...
Here @resolutionfoundation.org we’re hosting Megan Greene of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee. Topic for today: how economic conditions are diverging across US and Europe - plenty to talk about! Hearing from @robwoodecon.bsky.social and our very own @ruthcurtice.bsky.social too.
January 23, 2026 at 9:39 AM
Here @resolutionfoundation.org we’re hosting Megan Greene of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee. Topic for today: how economic conditions are diverging across US and Europe - plenty to talk about! Hearing from @robwoodecon.bsky.social and our very own @ruthcurtice.bsky.social too.
Quick word on this morning's public finances data for the UK which were pretty much in line with expectations. Borrowing in December was £11.6bn, slightly lower than market expectations of £13.4bn. Year to date, borrowing is £140.4bn, which looks broadly consistent with the OBR's Nov forecast.
January 22, 2026 at 8:08 AM
Quick word on this morning's public finances data for the UK which were pretty much in line with expectations. Borrowing in December was £11.6bn, slightly lower than market expectations of £13.4bn. Year to date, borrowing is £140.4bn, which looks broadly consistent with the OBR's Nov forecast.
UK inflation out this morning shows CPI ended 2025 on a 'high', rising 0.2pp to 3.4% for December, the first monthly rise in 5 months, and higher than market expectations. We're now expecting falls in the coming months- big issue for today is how fast they'll come. Short thread on that to follow...
January 21, 2026 at 7:07 AM
UK inflation out this morning shows CPI ended 2025 on a 'high', rising 0.2pp to 3.4% for December, the first monthly rise in 5 months, and higher than market expectations. We're now expecting falls in the coming months- big issue for today is how fast they'll come. Short thread on that to follow...
Forget what’s going on up a mountain in Switzerland, here @resolutionfoundation.org we’re talking about UK growth and the government’s struggles to deliver on its key priority. Great panel to chew over where policy can go further. For more, see: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
January 19, 2026 at 9:46 AM
Forget what’s going on up a mountain in Switzerland, here @resolutionfoundation.org we’re talking about UK growth and the government’s struggles to deliver on its key priority. Great panel to chew over where policy can go further. For more, see: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
At RF we are talking prospects for 2026, focusing on growth, living standards and…Zombies! Great panel with @claire-ainsley.bsky.social and @luketryl.bsky.social and our very own Greg Thwaites and @ruthcurtice.bsky.social.
Read our NY outlook here: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Read our NY outlook here: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
January 8, 2026 at 10:02 AM
At RF we are talking prospects for 2026, focusing on growth, living standards and…Zombies! Great panel with @claire-ainsley.bsky.social and @luketryl.bsky.social and our very own Greg Thwaites and @ruthcurtice.bsky.social.
Read our NY outlook here: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Read our NY outlook here: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
As expected, BoE cuts rates by 0.25ppts to 3.75%, the sixth cut in this cycle on a tighter-than-expected 5-4 vote. Bigger question for today, though, is how BoE sees balance of stubborn inflation and a weakening labour market. A short thread on that to follow...
December 18, 2025 at 12:05 PM
As expected, BoE cuts rates by 0.25ppts to 3.75%, the sixth cut in this cycle on a tighter-than-expected 5-4 vote. Bigger question for today, though, is how BoE sees balance of stubborn inflation and a weakening labour market. A short thread on that to follow...
Let's try that again! Welcome, surprise fall in UK inflation this morning with CPI at 3.2% in November, down from 3.6% in October (market and BoE expectations were for a smaller fall). This release surely nails on a rate cut from BoE tomorrow. Short thread to follow...
December 17, 2025 at 7:37 AM
Let's try that again! Welcome, surprise fall in UK inflation this morning with CPI at 3.2% in November, down from 3.6% in October (market and BoE expectations were for a smaller fall). This release surely nails on a rate cut from BoE tomorrow. Short thread to follow...
BoE loosened capital standards this morning and upped the emphasis on growth. Clearly fits with the government's agenda, but raises questions about the future safety of the financial system. Helpful thread on all today's announcements below.
The Bank of England published its latest Financial Stability Report this morning. The big news was a reduction of the financial buffers that UK banks need to hold. But what did the report tell us about the financial health of British households and businesses?
December 2, 2025 at 2:32 PM
BoE loosened capital standards this morning and upped the emphasis on growth. Clearly fits with the government's agenda, but raises questions about the future safety of the financial system. Helpful thread on all today's announcements below.
In case you have finished having a row about the Budget process, here's some content on the actual Budget substance👇. (Great to do this with @lseinequalities.bsky.social)
Rachel Reeves’s 2025 Budget pairs fiscal repair with measures to counter child poverty and the cost-of-living crisis.
In our latest blog post, James Smith of @resfoundation.bsky.social asks: was the Budget progressive overall? #LSEInequalitiesBlog
In our latest blog post, James Smith of @resfoundation.bsky.social asks: was the Budget progressive overall? #LSEInequalitiesBlog
Fiscal repair and cost-of-living relief: The Budget’s twin challenges
Rachel Reeves’s 2025 Budget pairs fiscal repair with measures to counter child poverty and the cost-of-living crisis. Was it a progressive Budget overall?
buff.ly
December 2, 2025 at 10:13 AM
In case you have finished having a row about the Budget process, here's some content on the actual Budget substance👇. (Great to do this with @lseinequalities.bsky.social)
New Household Cost Indices data out this morning show inflation is higher for renters, those on lower incomes, younger households and those with children. Unsurprisingly, renters are doing worse because rents are going up faster than mortgage costs.
November 28, 2025 at 11:25 AM
New Household Cost Indices data out this morning show inflation is higher for renters, those on lower incomes, younger households and those with children. Unsurprisingly, renters are doing worse because rents are going up faster than mortgage costs.
Read all about yesterday's Budget here (with huge congrats to the @resolutionfoundation.org for amazing overnight analysis).
🚨 Overnight Budget analysis now live 📢
Read 'Stairway to headroom' to put the Autumn Budget decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context.
The Chancellor has raced ahead with cost of living support but tax rises and spending cuts loom ⤵️ buff.ly/U9ZeozU
Read 'Stairway to headroom' to put the Autumn Budget decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context.
The Chancellor has raced ahead with cost of living support but tax rises and spending cuts loom ⤵️ buff.ly/U9ZeozU
November 27, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Read all about yesterday's Budget here (with huge congrats to the @resolutionfoundation.org for amazing overnight analysis).
Reposted by JamesSmithRF
Kudos to @resolutionfoundation.org , they foresaw a much rosier forecast of Growth despite the productivity downgrade, and they nailed it
Applause to @ruthcurtice.bsky.social @adamcorlett.bsky.social @jamessmithrf.bsky.social or whichever genius is responsible.
Applause to @ruthcurtice.bsky.social @adamcorlett.bsky.social @jamessmithrf.bsky.social or whichever genius is responsible.
November 26, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Kudos to @resolutionfoundation.org , they foresaw a much rosier forecast of Growth despite the productivity downgrade, and they nailed it
Applause to @ruthcurtice.bsky.social @adamcorlett.bsky.social @jamessmithrf.bsky.social or whichever genius is responsible.
Applause to @ruthcurtice.bsky.social @adamcorlett.bsky.social @jamessmithrf.bsky.social or whichever genius is responsible.
Follow along live! (or read the OBR document!)
Live posting about the speech feels slightly unnecessary when all the details are out. But I'm a sucker for tradition nonetheless.
November 26, 2025 at 12:38 PM
Follow along live! (or read the OBR document!)
Reposted by JamesSmithRF
We'll stay up all night crunching Budget numbers, so you don't have to.
Join us On Thursday morning to learn what it means for the public, markets & cost of living ⤵️ buff.ly/drrsXC8
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social, @jamessmithrf.bsky.social, @kamalahmednews.bsky.social, Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes
Join us On Thursday morning to learn what it means for the public, markets & cost of living ⤵️ buff.ly/drrsXC8
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social, @jamessmithrf.bsky.social, @kamalahmednews.bsky.social, Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes
November 24, 2025 at 9:23 AM
We'll stay up all night crunching Budget numbers, so you don't have to.
Join us On Thursday morning to learn what it means for the public, markets & cost of living ⤵️ buff.ly/drrsXC8
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social, @jamessmithrf.bsky.social, @kamalahmednews.bsky.social, Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes
Join us On Thursday morning to learn what it means for the public, markets & cost of living ⤵️ buff.ly/drrsXC8
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social, @jamessmithrf.bsky.social, @kamalahmednews.bsky.social, Yael Selfin & Richard Hughes
Welcome reforms on minimum wage enforcement coming with the Budget.
Good to see this story over the weekend that the Government is doubling down on 'naming and shaming' employers who have been found to underpay the minimum wage. Our past research has shown that reputational concerns can help convince employers to play by the rules. www.thesun.co.uk/money/374030...
Rogue bosses face tougher 'naming and shaming' over minimum wage breaches
ROGUE bosses are set for more regular “naming and shaming” to ensure they pay national minimum wage workers the full amount. Businesses breaking the rules will have no hiding place in a gover…
www.thesun.co.uk
November 24, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Welcome reforms on minimum wage enforcement coming with the Budget.
Final public finances release before the Budget shows borrowing was slightly above market expectations at £17.4bn in October. Year-to-date borrowing was £116.8bn, £9.9bn above the OBR forecast. This comes too late for next week's forecast but is a key snapshot of the pub finances. Thread to follow.
November 21, 2025 at 7:16 AM
Final public finances release before the Budget shows borrowing was slightly above market expectations at £17.4bn in October. Year-to-date borrowing was £116.8bn, £9.9bn above the OBR forecast. This comes too late for next week's forecast but is a key snapshot of the pub finances. Thread to follow.
UK CPI inflation begins its long march back to 2%, falling from 3.8% in September to 3.6% in October. This is a welcome decrease but the BoE says it will be a long path down and families are still struggling with the high cost of living. The Chancellor shd act at the Budget. Thread to follow...
November 19, 2025 at 7:58 AM
UK CPI inflation begins its long march back to 2%, falling from 3.8% in September to 3.6% in October. This is a welcome decrease but the BoE says it will be a long path down and families are still struggling with the high cost of living. The Chancellor shd act at the Budget. Thread to follow...