JamesSmithRF
@jamessmithrf.bsky.social
Research Director at the Resolution Foundation. Previous lives at the Bank of England and in the civil service. Focussed mainly on macroeconomics (mainly).
Disappointing UK GDP this morning showing growth of just 0.1% in Q3, slightly below BoE and market expectations (0.2%). The good news for the Chancellor is this comes to late to be included in Budget forecasts - but this underlines the growth challenge we face. Thread to follow...
November 13, 2025 at 7:17 AM
Disappointing UK GDP this morning showing growth of just 0.1% in Q3, slightly below BoE and market expectations (0.2%). The good news for the Chancellor is this comes to late to be included in Budget forecasts - but this underlines the growth challenge we face. Thread to follow...
The new BoE projections databank is a thing of beauty. Big step forward in terms of forecast transparency. 👏👏👏
www.bankofengland.co.uk
November 6, 2025 at 4:45 PM
The new BoE projections databank is a thing of beauty. Big step forward in terms of forecast transparency. 👏👏👏
Bank of England on hold at 4% on tight 5-4 vote with MPC minutes suggesting closer-than-expected decision. Big issue for today is outlook for inflation and new BoE comms. But this is also a key decision for the Chancellor ahead of the Budget. Thread on all that to follow...
November 6, 2025 at 12:14 PM
Bank of England on hold at 4% on tight 5-4 vote with MPC minutes suggesting closer-than-expected decision. Big issue for today is outlook for inflation and new BoE comms. But this is also a key decision for the Chancellor ahead of the Budget. Thread on all that to follow...
Want to know what Rachel Reeves is talking about today? We have all the Budget issues covered in our (@resfoundation.bsky.social) preview:
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
November 4, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Want to know what Rachel Reeves is talking about today? We have all the Budget issues covered in our (@resfoundation.bsky.social) preview:
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
It's me! Talking all things Budget related.
The Budget will be a pivotal moment for a Government looking to improve its mood music.
@jamessmithrf.bsky.social explains why the Chx should prioritise:
🏦 The public finances
👛 The cost of living
📃 Payslips
Read 'Black holes and consolidations' to learn more ⤵️ buff.ly/XPioKOp
@jamessmithrf.bsky.social explains why the Chx should prioritise:
🏦 The public finances
👛 The cost of living
📃 Payslips
Read 'Black holes and consolidations' to learn more ⤵️ buff.ly/XPioKOp
November 4, 2025 at 2:26 PM
It's me! Talking all things Budget related.
Disappointing UK PMI this morning with only a small bounce back after chunky fall in September. This is a key indicator for the BoE so the sliver of good news is that this probably keeps hopes of a rate cut alive for November.
October 24, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Disappointing UK PMI this morning with only a small bounce back after chunky fall in September. This is a key indicator for the BoE so the sliver of good news is that this probably keeps hopes of a rate cut alive for November.
Want to know what is going on with uprating benefits after yesterday's inflation data? @lalithatry.bsky.social has the answers:
New spotlight from me covering what the latest inflation data means for benefit uprating out now. Here’s a quick summary:
October 23, 2025 at 10:24 AM
Want to know what is going on with uprating benefits after yesterday's inflation data? @lalithatry.bsky.social has the answers:
UK CPI inflation finally surprised to the downside in September at 3.8% (4.0% expected). This is good news for mortgagors as it makes it more likely that the BoE will cut rates next month, but comes in key month for benefits uprating. Thread on all the details to follow...
October 22, 2025 at 6:22 AM
UK CPI inflation finally surprised to the downside in September at 3.8% (4.0% expected). This is good news for mortgagors as it makes it more likely that the BoE will cut rates next month, but comes in key month for benefits uprating. Thread on all the details to follow...
This morning's public finances release is the final set of meaningful number we get before the Budget. Borrowing was £20.2bn in September, close to official and market expectations BUT is running around £7.1bn above the OBR forecast year to date. Short thread to follow...
October 21, 2025 at 6:25 AM
This morning's public finances release is the final set of meaningful number we get before the Budget. Borrowing was £20.2bn in September, close to official and market expectations BUT is running around £7.1bn above the OBR forecast year to date. Short thread to follow...
This morning's data show UK GDP growth was 0.3% in the three months to August, with output expanding 0.1% on the month, in line with market expectations. Worrying thing in this release is the flatlining of the all-important service sector in July and August. A short thread on this to follow...
October 16, 2025 at 6:17 AM
This morning's data show UK GDP growth was 0.3% in the three months to August, with output expanding 0.1% on the month, in line with market expectations. Worrying thing in this release is the flatlining of the all-important service sector in July and August. A short thread on this to follow...
Great opportunity to come and help shape our work here @resfoundation.bsky.social: www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp... (although you will have to work with me....)
Research Director • Resolution Foundation
The Resolution Foundation is looking for an exceptional candidate to help lead our research team. This is an exciting opportunity to join the Foundation’s senior leadership as we seek to turn around t...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
October 15, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Great opportunity to come and help shape our work here @resfoundation.bsky.social: www.resolutionfoundation.org/about-us/opp... (although you will have to work with me....)
IMF forecasts being widely reported. In truth, not a lot of news: growth is stronger in 2025, reflecting outturns, 2026 has been revised down, partly due to tariffs, v.similar to BoE fcast changes. Expect OBR to also revise 2025 up and 2026 onwards down (although likely by more) in November.
October 14, 2025 at 7:04 PM
IMF forecasts being widely reported. In truth, not a lot of news: growth is stronger in 2025, reflecting outturns, 2026 has been revised down, partly due to tariffs, v.similar to BoE fcast changes. Expect OBR to also revise 2025 up and 2026 onwards down (although likely by more) in November.
Here at the Resolution Foundation we have Catherine Mann talking about demand weakness. Great event with Michael Saunders too: www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/expla...
October 9, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Here at the Resolution Foundation we have Catherine Mann talking about demand weakness. Great event with Michael Saunders too: www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/expla...
Do sign up for this event tomorrow - is great panel, with Catherine Mann and Michael Saunders, a really important topic (why families aren't spending), and all hosted by our very own Ruth Curtice. What more could you want??
🚨Keynote speech by External MPC member Dr. Catherine L. Mann🚨
Join us on Thursday to hear how the recent episode of above-target inflation and higher interest rates have affected households’ behaviour⤵️
buff.ly/m6NUN5b
Join us on Thursday to hear how the recent episode of above-target inflation and higher interest rates have affected households’ behaviour⤵️
buff.ly/m6NUN5b
October 8, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Do sign up for this event tomorrow - is great panel, with Catherine Mann and Michael Saunders, a really important topic (why families aren't spending), and all hosted by our very own Ruth Curtice. What more could you want??
Genuine sympathy with Office for National Statistics on this. What's happened here is a bog-standard HMRC recording error on VAT which the ONS have been commendably open about. On substance, it doesn't change the outlook much as low VAT receipts always looked erratic.
ONS revises down government borrowing estimates after data error on.ft.com/4h1HLGG
ONS revises down government borrowing estimates after data error
Office for National Statistics says there was an error in VAT receipts used to calculate the figures
on.ft.com
October 8, 2025 at 9:32 AM
Genuine sympathy with Office for National Statistics on this. What's happened here is a bog-standard HMRC recording error on VAT which the ONS have been commendably open about. On substance, it doesn't change the outlook much as low VAT receipts always looked erratic.
This is the quintessential read on household wealth inequality Britain - is well worth your time.
🚨 New research published today
'Before the fall' looks at what has happened to the distribution of household wealth in Britain and the impact on families.
Read it here 👉 buff.ly/Ya8kInK
'Before the fall' looks at what has happened to the distribution of household wealth in Britain and the impact on families.
Read it here 👉 buff.ly/Ya8kInK
October 8, 2025 at 8:46 AM
This is the quintessential read on household wealth inequality Britain - is well worth your time.
We are talking household wealth inequality at the Resolution Foundation with Molly Broome, Polly Toynbee, Mike Savage and our very own David Willetts. To read the research, see: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
October 8, 2025 at 8:44 AM
We are talking household wealth inequality at the Resolution Foundation with Molly Broome, Polly Toynbee, Mike Savage and our very own David Willetts. To read the research, see: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
This is good from Simon Wren-Lewis on why the country's fiscal woes are not caused by OBR forecasts, the bond market or (most improbably) the frequency of fiscal forecasts.
This weeks post: Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/misu...
The government delegating some technical tasks to independent experts doesn't create a democratic deficit, but it does avoid wishful thinking.
The government delegating some technical tasks to independent experts doesn't create a democratic deficit, but it does avoid wishful thinking.
Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market
I often see pieces from those on the left criticising the OBR. Here is Louise Haigh , for example, talking about the “rigid orthodoxy of t...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
October 2, 2025 at 12:30 PM
This is good from Simon Wren-Lewis on why the country's fiscal woes are not caused by OBR forecasts, the bond market or (most improbably) the frequency of fiscal forecasts.
ONS published a revised set of national accounts data this morning - key data for BoE and OBR in judging whats going on with the economy. Key takeaway is little change in near term pattern of growth but ONS think the economy is a little bigger than previously thought...
September 30, 2025 at 8:13 AM
ONS published a revised set of national accounts data this morning - key data for BoE and OBR in judging whats going on with the economy. Key takeaway is little change in near term pattern of growth but ONS think the economy is a little bigger than previously thought...
More on the frequency of fiscal events this morning. Most important thing to understand here is that our fiscal problems are NOT caused by too many events (or OBR forecasts)- they reflect weak growth and higher interest rates that have left the public finances stretched, making decisions difficult.
September 29, 2025 at 10:35 AM
More on the frequency of fiscal events this morning. Most important thing to understand here is that our fiscal problems are NOT caused by too many events (or OBR forecasts)- they reflect weak growth and higher interest rates that have left the public finances stretched, making decisions difficult.
Disappointing S&P global PMI this morning for the UK - suggests a step down in growth in September. Bad news for the government as it suggests the strong growth in the first half of the year was a blip rather than a new trend. Worrying weakening in growth in the all-important service sector.
UK S&P Global Services PMI Sep P: 51.9 (est 53.5; prev 54.2)
- Manufacturing PMI: 46.2 (est 47.1; prev 47.0)
- Composite PMI: 51.0 (est 53.0; prev 53.5)
www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
- Manufacturing PMI: 46.2 (est 47.1; prev 47.0)
- Composite PMI: 51.0 (est 53.0; prev 53.5)
www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
www.pmi.spglobal.com
September 23, 2025 at 9:49 AM
Disappointing S&P global PMI this morning for the UK - suggests a step down in growth in September. Bad news for the government as it suggests the strong growth in the first half of the year was a blip rather than a new trend. Worrying weakening in growth in the all-important service sector.
This morning's public sector finance data were not great for the government ahead of a difficult Budget. Borrowing was £18bn in Aug, £3.5bn higher than last year, highest in 5 years, and £5.5bn above the OBR forecast. Borrowing is now £11.4bn above the OBR forecast in the year to date.
September 19, 2025 at 8:07 AM
This morning's public sector finance data were not great for the government ahead of a difficult Budget. Borrowing was £18bn in Aug, £3.5bn higher than last year, highest in 5 years, and £5.5bn above the OBR forecast. Borrowing is now £11.4bn above the OBR forecast in the year to date.
As expected, BoE keeps rates on hold at 4% (with two members voting for 0.25ppts cut) as it juggles higher near-term inflation and weaker labour market. Bigger news is the slowing of QT sales to £70bn and skewing to shorter maturities. Thread on all that to follow...
September 18, 2025 at 11:08 AM
As expected, BoE keeps rates on hold at 4% (with two members voting for 0.25ppts cut) as it juggles higher near-term inflation and weaker labour market. Bigger news is the slowing of QT sales to £70bn and skewing to shorter maturities. Thread on all that to follow...
UK CPI inflation was 3.8% in August, in line with market and BoE expectations. Below the top line there was some good news on underlying inflation but food price inflation accelerated to 5.1%, increasing pressure on struggling families. Short thread to follow...
September 17, 2025 at 6:12 AM
UK CPI inflation was 3.8% in August, in line with market and BoE expectations. Below the top line there was some good news on underlying inflation but food price inflation accelerated to 5.1%, increasing pressure on struggling families. Short thread to follow...
New piece out today on recent market moves.
Key takeaway is that we shdnt be surprised UK borrowing costs are high given inflation struggles & reliance on foreign investors. Much of this is not about govt fiscal policy BUT risks mean a decisive response is needed from the Chancellor, BoE and DMO.
Key takeaway is that we shdnt be surprised UK borrowing costs are high given inflation struggles & reliance on foreign investors. Much of this is not about govt fiscal policy BUT risks mean a decisive response is needed from the Chancellor, BoE and DMO.
The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook: Q3 2025 • Resolution Foundation
UK Government borrowing costs have once again been in the headlines. Recent moves have, however, been overblown: since benchmark 10-year yields peaked at post-financial-crisis highs of 4.9 per cent in...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
September 12, 2025 at 11:21 AM
New piece out today on recent market moves.
Key takeaway is that we shdnt be surprised UK borrowing costs are high given inflation struggles & reliance on foreign investors. Much of this is not about govt fiscal policy BUT risks mean a decisive response is needed from the Chancellor, BoE and DMO.
Key takeaway is that we shdnt be surprised UK borrowing costs are high given inflation struggles & reliance on foreign investors. Much of this is not about govt fiscal policy BUT risks mean a decisive response is needed from the Chancellor, BoE and DMO.