Archie Hall
@archiehall.bsky.social
Writing for The Economist—mostly on the US economy, with occasional forays elsewhere. Recreational Britain-watcher. Previous lives in macro investing and polling.
Substack at: https://notes.archie-hall.com/
Substack at: https://notes.archie-hall.com/
Pinned
Archie Hall
@archiehall.bsky.social
· Nov 26
A thread with a few Budget thoughts.
More here: notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...
1/ The shape of this budget depends on which year you look at. Three years out, it's more spending financed with more borrowing. Five years out, it's fiscally prudent tax rises. Up to you which will stick more.
More here: notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...
1/ The shape of this budget depends on which year you look at. Three years out, it's more spending financed with more borrowing. Five years out, it's fiscally prudent tax rises. Up to you which will stick more.
The impact of Trump's attacks on the IRS, in two charts.
From my latest for @economist.com.
www.economist.com/finance-and...
From my latest for @economist.com.
www.economist.com/finance-and...
February 17, 2026 at 4:32 PM
The impact of Trump's attacks on the IRS, in two charts.
From my latest for @economist.com.
www.economist.com/finance-and...
From my latest for @economist.com.
www.economist.com/finance-and...
PEAK TARIFFS?
As tariff rates surged in 2025, so did tariff revenues. But since the middle of last year, they have pretty much flatlined. Has America's tariff take peaked? I play with that idea for @economist.com this week. A few possible drivers there in a 🧵 below
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
As tariff rates surged in 2025, so did tariff revenues. But since the middle of last year, they have pretty much flatlined. Has America's tariff take peaked? I play with that idea for @economist.com this week. A few possible drivers there in a 🧵 below
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
February 5, 2026 at 5:09 PM
PEAK TARIFFS?
As tariff rates surged in 2025, so did tariff revenues. But since the middle of last year, they have pretty much flatlined. Has America's tariff take peaked? I play with that idea for @economist.com this week. A few possible drivers there in a 🧵 below
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
As tariff rates surged in 2025, so did tariff revenues. But since the middle of last year, they have pretty much flatlined. Has America's tariff take peaked? I play with that idea for @economist.com this week. A few possible drivers there in a 🧵 below
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
WHAT IS WARSHONOMICS?
Kevin Warsh's dovish pivot since Donald Trump won in 2024 is staggering. Over a 20+ year career, he has pretty much always been a hawk: until now.
But on his real hobbyhorse, unwinding QE, Warsh remains remarkably consistent.
My column: www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Kevin Warsh's dovish pivot since Donald Trump won in 2024 is staggering. Over a 20+ year career, he has pretty much always been a hawk: until now.
But on his real hobbyhorse, unwinding QE, Warsh remains remarkably consistent.
My column: www.economist.com/finance-and-...
February 5, 2026 at 3:46 PM
WHAT IS WARSHONOMICS?
Kevin Warsh's dovish pivot since Donald Trump won in 2024 is staggering. Over a 20+ year career, he has pretty much always been a hawk: until now.
But on his real hobbyhorse, unwinding QE, Warsh remains remarkably consistent.
My column: www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Kevin Warsh's dovish pivot since Donald Trump won in 2024 is staggering. Over a 20+ year career, he has pretty much always been a hawk: until now.
But on his real hobbyhorse, unwinding QE, Warsh remains remarkably consistent.
My column: www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Some reflections on Kevin Warsh as a prose stylist, from me in this week's "Money Talks" newsletter for @economist.com
www.economist.com/newsletters/...
www.economist.com/newsletters/...
February 5, 2026 at 3:09 PM
Some reflections on Kevin Warsh as a prose stylist, from me in this week's "Money Talks" newsletter for @economist.com
www.economist.com/newsletters/...
www.economist.com/newsletters/...
Can a hawk change its feathers? A few thoughts on Kevin Warsh-- www.economist.com/finance-and-...
What will Kevin Warsh’s Federal Reserve look like?
Donald Trump’s nominee was an inflation hawk—until he wasn’t
www.economist.com
January 30, 2026 at 6:54 PM
Can a hawk change its feathers? A few thoughts on Kevin Warsh-- www.economist.com/finance-and-...
AMERICA'S ABSENT BOND VIGILANTES
Here's a remarkable fact: since last year, America's bond market has comfortably beaten all of its peers.
Soaring deficits, attacks on the Fed, trade wars and Greenlandic aggression — all shrugged off.
I look at why: www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Here's a remarkable fact: since last year, America's bond market has comfortably beaten all of its peers.
Soaring deficits, attacks on the Fed, trade wars and Greenlandic aggression — all shrugged off.
I look at why: www.economist.com/finance-and-...
January 22, 2026 at 7:09 PM
AMERICA'S ABSENT BOND VIGILANTES
Here's a remarkable fact: since last year, America's bond market has comfortably beaten all of its peers.
Soaring deficits, attacks on the Fed, trade wars and Greenlandic aggression — all shrugged off.
I look at why: www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Here's a remarkable fact: since last year, America's bond market has comfortably beaten all of its peers.
Soaring deficits, attacks on the Fed, trade wars and Greenlandic aggression — all shrugged off.
I look at why: www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Reposted by Archie Hall
“There are some pretty scary hypotheticals you can get to.” @archiehall.bsky.social talks to “The Intelligence” about where Donald Trump’s pressure on the Fed may lead
Independence Jay? Inflation and attacks on the Fed
Also on the daily podcast: weighing the effects of Brexit six years on and what self-help books really reveal
econ.st
January 14, 2026 at 5:40 PM
“There are some pretty scary hypotheticals you can get to.” @archiehall.bsky.social talks to “The Intelligence” about where Donald Trump’s pressure on the Fed may lead
The key historical context to this week's Fed madness.
And a quick piece from me on how this turned out to be a surprisingly good week for central bank independence: www.economist.com/finance-and-...
And a quick piece from me on how this turned out to be a surprisingly good week for central bank independence: www.economist.com/finance-and-...
January 15, 2026 at 6:08 PM
The key historical context to this week's Fed madness.
And a quick piece from me on how this turned out to be a surprisingly good week for central bank independence: www.economist.com/finance-and-...
And a quick piece from me on how this turned out to be a surprisingly good week for central bank independence: www.economist.com/finance-and-...
One respect in which Britain is not European
January 13, 2026 at 1:32 PM
One respect in which Britain is not European
A quick take from me on tonight's bizarre -- and dangerous -- spat between the Fed and White House
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Jerome Powell says Donald Trump has launched a criminal investigation against the Fed
The president denies all knowledge. A bizarre fight could get nasty
www.economist.com
January 12, 2026 at 4:59 AM
A quick take from me on tonight's bizarre -- and dangerous -- spat between the Fed and White House
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
AMERICA'S MISSING MANUFACTURING RENAISSANCE
Manufacturing has been in a recession for three years. The evidence is pretty convincing that tariffs have made things worse.
I explore this in my latest for @economist.com.
Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
Manufacturing has been in a recession for three years. The evidence is pretty convincing that tariffs have made things worse.
I explore this in my latest for @economist.com.
Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
January 8, 2026 at 3:25 PM
AMERICA'S MISSING MANUFACTURING RENAISSANCE
Manufacturing has been in a recession for three years. The evidence is pretty convincing that tariffs have made things worse.
I explore this in my latest for @economist.com.
Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
Manufacturing has been in a recession for three years. The evidence is pretty convincing that tariffs have made things worse.
I explore this in my latest for @economist.com.
Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
"AFFORDABILITY ANGST"
I wrote this week's @economist.com cover story, on affordability in America
Politically, "affordability" is a potent slogan. But on the economics, the issue is mostly a mirage—real wages have risen handsomely. That mismatch spells trouble
Thread and link ⬇️
I wrote this week's @economist.com cover story, on affordability in America
Politically, "affordability" is a potent slogan. But on the economics, the issue is mostly a mirage—real wages have risen handsomely. That mismatch spells trouble
Thread and link ⬇️
January 7, 2026 at 9:49 PM
"AFFORDABILITY ANGST"
I wrote this week's @economist.com cover story, on affordability in America
Politically, "affordability" is a potent slogan. But on the economics, the issue is mostly a mirage—real wages have risen handsomely. That mismatch spells trouble
Thread and link ⬇️
I wrote this week's @economist.com cover story, on affordability in America
Politically, "affordability" is a potent slogan. But on the economics, the issue is mostly a mirage—real wages have risen handsomely. That mismatch spells trouble
Thread and link ⬇️
Pretty vast education splits in AI adoption-- especially at work.
Via Brookings: www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
Via Brookings: www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
December 2, 2025 at 9:33 PM
Pretty vast education splits in AI adoption-- especially at work.
Via Brookings: www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
Via Brookings: www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
How doomed is America's jobs market? I took a look for this week's @economist.com.
Certainly, there are some signs of weakness. But the labour market has been cooling gradually for several years now. What we've seen recently looks like a continuation, not a cliff.
www.economist.com/finance-and...
Certainly, there are some signs of weakness. But the labour market has been cooling gradually for several years now. What we've seen recently looks like a continuation, not a cliff.
www.economist.com/finance-and...
December 1, 2025 at 4:49 PM
How doomed is America's jobs market? I took a look for this week's @economist.com.
Certainly, there are some signs of weakness. But the labour market has been cooling gradually for several years now. What we've seen recently looks like a continuation, not a cliff.
www.economist.com/finance-and...
Certainly, there are some signs of weakness. But the labour market has been cooling gradually for several years now. What we've seen recently looks like a continuation, not a cliff.
www.economist.com/finance-and...
Farewell to the K. A brief but memorable tenure in the discourse.
November 28, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Farewell to the K. A brief but memorable tenure in the discourse.
Robotaxis will tranform cities more than we yet realise: my latest for @economist.com
— The tech will get cheaper. Dire traffic jams unless cities learn to love congestion taxes
— Denser city centres (few parking lots), but also more sprawl
— Cycling gets safer
www.economist.com/finance-and...
— The tech will get cheaper. Dire traffic jams unless cities learn to love congestion taxes
— Denser city centres (few parking lots), but also more sprawl
— Cycling gets safer
www.economist.com/finance-and...
November 27, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Robotaxis will tranform cities more than we yet realise: my latest for @economist.com
— The tech will get cheaper. Dire traffic jams unless cities learn to love congestion taxes
— Denser city centres (few parking lots), but also more sprawl
— Cycling gets safer
www.economist.com/finance-and...
— The tech will get cheaper. Dire traffic jams unless cities learn to love congestion taxes
— Denser city centres (few parking lots), but also more sprawl
— Cycling gets safer
www.economist.com/finance-and...
A slightly more considered, day-two take on the Budget from me—ruminating on the politics of it and rounding up some of the interesting bits I missed yesterday.
notes.archie-hall.com/p/a-few-nex...
notes.archie-hall.com/p/a-few-nex...
November 27, 2025 at 4:07 PM
A slightly more considered, day-two take on the Budget from me—ruminating on the politics of it and rounding up some of the interesting bits I missed yesterday.
notes.archie-hall.com/p/a-few-nex...
notes.archie-hall.com/p/a-few-nex...
Today, I think, there were actually two budgets: a spending-and borrowing heavy one for the next few years, and a more tax-heavy one for the very end of parliament.
The government will naturally talk up the first to its backbenchers, and the second to markets.
notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...
The government will naturally talk up the first to its backbenchers, and the second to markets.
notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...
November 26, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Today, I think, there were actually two budgets: a spending-and borrowing heavy one for the next few years, and a more tax-heavy one for the very end of parliament.
The government will naturally talk up the first to its backbenchers, and the second to markets.
notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...
The government will naturally talk up the first to its backbenchers, and the second to markets.
notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...
A thread with a few Budget thoughts.
More here: notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...
1/ The shape of this budget depends on which year you look at. Three years out, it's more spending financed with more borrowing. Five years out, it's fiscally prudent tax rises. Up to you which will stick more.
More here: notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...
1/ The shape of this budget depends on which year you look at. Three years out, it's more spending financed with more borrowing. Five years out, it's fiscally prudent tax rises. Up to you which will stick more.
November 26, 2025 at 3:17 PM
A thread with a few Budget thoughts.
More here: notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...
1/ The shape of this budget depends on which year you look at. Three years out, it's more spending financed with more borrowing. Five years out, it's fiscally prudent tax rises. Up to you which will stick more.
More here: notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...
1/ The shape of this budget depends on which year you look at. Three years out, it's more spending financed with more borrowing. Five years out, it's fiscally prudent tax rises. Up to you which will stick more.
My quick verdict on the Budget, now up.
"Fifteen thoughts on the Budget"
open.substack.com/pub/archieh...
"Fifteen thoughts on the Budget"
open.substack.com/pub/archieh...
November 26, 2025 at 3:09 PM
My quick verdict on the Budget, now up.
"Fifteen thoughts on the Budget"
open.substack.com/pub/archieh...
"Fifteen thoughts on the Budget"
open.substack.com/pub/archieh...
Synthetic controls with a heavy weight on the US always worry me a little, but this is a careful bit of work from Nick Bloom and co with (as I see it) two big implications
1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..!
2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet
www.nber.org/papers/w34459
1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..!
2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet
www.nber.org/papers/w34459
November 13, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Synthetic controls with a heavy weight on the US always worry me a little, but this is a careful bit of work from Nick Bloom and co with (as I see it) two big implications
1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..!
2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet
www.nber.org/papers/w34459
1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..!
2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet
www.nber.org/papers/w34459
Great piece: www.worksinprogress.news/p/why-the-de...
Why the developing world needs wider streets
Roads are the arteries of cities, making the whole more than the sum of its parts. Cities of the developing world need more of them.
www.worksinprogress.news
November 12, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Great piece: www.worksinprogress.news/p/why-the-de...
From an Economist leader in August 2000
November 11, 2025 at 4:34 PM
From an Economist leader in August 2000
As the shutdown grinds to an end, I took stock for @economist.com on how well private-sector data has done guiding America through the past few months' data drought.
www.economist.com/finance-and...
www.economist.com/finance-and...
November 10, 2025 at 6:01 PM
As the shutdown grinds to an end, I took stock for @economist.com on how well private-sector data has done guiding America through the past few months' data drought.
www.economist.com/finance-and...
www.economist.com/finance-and...
A quick take from me ahead of tomorrow’s Supreme Court arguments on IEEPA tariffs
— There are lots of non-IEEPA authorities Trump can use rebuild his tariff wall
— But, losing IEEPA will make the tariff-setting process more lumbering and chaotic. That could be a problem
economist.com/finance-and...
— There are lots of non-IEEPA authorities Trump can use rebuild his tariff wall
— But, losing IEEPA will make the tariff-setting process more lumbering and chaotic. That could be a problem
economist.com/finance-and...
November 4, 2025 at 5:46 PM
A quick take from me ahead of tomorrow’s Supreme Court arguments on IEEPA tariffs
— There are lots of non-IEEPA authorities Trump can use rebuild his tariff wall
— But, losing IEEPA will make the tariff-setting process more lumbering and chaotic. That could be a problem
economist.com/finance-and...
— There are lots of non-IEEPA authorities Trump can use rebuild his tariff wall
— But, losing IEEPA will make the tariff-setting process more lumbering and chaotic. That could be a problem
economist.com/finance-and...