Archie Hall
@archiehall.bsky.social
Writing for The Economist — mostly on the US and British economies, with occasional forays elsewhere. Previous lives in macro investing and polling.
Substack at: https://notes.archie-hall.com/
Substack at: https://notes.archie-hall.com/
Pinned
Archie Hall
@archiehall.bsky.social
· Jul 31
Energy in Britain has gotten scarce—and thus expensive.
Prices are high in absolute terms, and further above the European average than any point in at least 40 years (barring the 22/23 shock).
What's behind this, and is it crimping growth? I took a look for @economist.com. (🧵)
Prices are high in absolute terms, and further above the European average than any point in at least 40 years (barring the 22/23 shock).
What's behind this, and is it crimping growth? I took a look for @economist.com. (🧵)
Synthetic controls with a heavy weight on the US always worry me a little, but this is a careful bit of work from Nick Bloom and co with (as I see it) two big implications
1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..!
2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet
www.nber.org/papers/w34459
1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..!
2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet
www.nber.org/papers/w34459
November 13, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Synthetic controls with a heavy weight on the US always worry me a little, but this is a careful bit of work from Nick Bloom and co with (as I see it) two big implications
1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..!
2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet
www.nber.org/papers/w34459
1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..!
2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet
www.nber.org/papers/w34459
Great piece: www.worksinprogress.news/p/why-the-de...
Why the developing world needs wider streets
Roads are the arteries of cities, making the whole more than the sum of its parts. Cities of the developing world need more of them.
www.worksinprogress.news
November 12, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Great piece: www.worksinprogress.news/p/why-the-de...
From an Economist leader in August 2000
November 11, 2025 at 4:34 PM
From an Economist leader in August 2000
As the shutdown grinds to an end, I took stock for @economist.com on how well private-sector data has done guiding America through the past few months' data drought.
www.economist.com/finance-and...
www.economist.com/finance-and...
November 10, 2025 at 6:01 PM
As the shutdown grinds to an end, I took stock for @economist.com on how well private-sector data has done guiding America through the past few months' data drought.
www.economist.com/finance-and...
www.economist.com/finance-and...
A quick take from me ahead of tomorrow’s Supreme Court arguments on IEEPA tariffs
— There are lots of non-IEEPA authorities Trump can use rebuild his tariff wall
— But, losing IEEPA will make the tariff-setting process more lumbering and chaotic. That could be a problem
economist.com/finance-and...
— There are lots of non-IEEPA authorities Trump can use rebuild his tariff wall
— But, losing IEEPA will make the tariff-setting process more lumbering and chaotic. That could be a problem
economist.com/finance-and...
November 4, 2025 at 5:46 PM
A quick take from me ahead of tomorrow’s Supreme Court arguments on IEEPA tariffs
— There are lots of non-IEEPA authorities Trump can use rebuild his tariff wall
— But, losing IEEPA will make the tariff-setting process more lumbering and chaotic. That could be a problem
economist.com/finance-and...
— There are lots of non-IEEPA authorities Trump can use rebuild his tariff wall
— But, losing IEEPA will make the tariff-setting process more lumbering and chaotic. That could be a problem
economist.com/finance-and...
Reposted by Archie Hall
Farage's jettisoning of the 2024 manifesto in favour of what promises to be a much more fiscally-conservative approach is a significant moment. My colleague @archiehall.bsky.social ran the rule over the policybook as late as May. It wasn't pretty. www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Nigel Farage’s economic plans are a disaster
Three choices: fiscal implosion, deep austerity or a hasty U-turn
www.economist.com
November 3, 2025 at 11:03 AM
Farage's jettisoning of the 2024 manifesto in favour of what promises to be a much more fiscally-conservative approach is a significant moment. My colleague @archiehall.bsky.social ran the rule over the policybook as late as May. It wasn't pretty. www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Here's something I don't have a good explanation for— British households' long-run inflation expectations are pretty severely de-anchored, but markets are totally relaxed.
November 2, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Here's something I don't have a good explanation for— British households' long-run inflation expectations are pretty severely de-anchored, but markets are totally relaxed.
Have data centres raised power bills? Not really, our analysis @economist.com finds—at least so far. Adding data centres to a state-level model of electricity prices shows no significant effect
But backlash is brewing. My latest, on the politics of the data centre: www.economist.com/united-state...
But backlash is brewing. My latest, on the politics of the data centre: www.economist.com/united-state...
October 30, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Have data centres raised power bills? Not really, our analysis @economist.com finds—at least so far. Adding data centres to a state-level model of electricity prices shows no significant effect
But backlash is brewing. My latest, on the politics of the data centre: www.economist.com/united-state...
But backlash is brewing. My latest, on the politics of the data centre: www.economist.com/united-state...
For the first time in about 70 years, net immigration to America could be zero. Beneath the noise of tariff and budget fights, migration may well be the biggest economic story of 2025.
My latest for @economist.com: Welcome to Zero Migration America
Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
🧵 below
My latest for @economist.com: Welcome to Zero Migration America
Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
🧵 below
October 7, 2025 at 8:42 PM
For the first time in about 70 years, net immigration to America could be zero. Beneath the noise of tariff and budget fights, migration may well be the biggest economic story of 2025.
My latest for @economist.com: Welcome to Zero Migration America
Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
🧵 below
My latest for @economist.com: Welcome to Zero Migration America
Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
🧵 below
Pretty crazy how the economic weakness of H1 2025 has just been... revised away
September 25, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Pretty crazy how the economic weakness of H1 2025 has just been... revised away
Reposted by Archie Hall
Goes nicely with a slice of @spignal.bsky.social 's column about Europe's increasingly pungent lack of urgency www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
September 15, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Goes nicely with a slice of @spignal.bsky.social 's column about Europe's increasingly pungent lack of urgency www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
A dose of everything-is-fine-ism from me in @economist.com.
Amid worries about a slowdown in America
—The latest data isn't awful (even payrolls), and seems to have stopped getting worse
—That leaves America with more than enough growth to keep Europeans jealous
www.economist.com/finance-and...
Amid worries about a slowdown in America
—The latest data isn't awful (even payrolls), and seems to have stopped getting worse
—That leaves America with more than enough growth to keep Europeans jealous
www.economist.com/finance-and...
September 15, 2025 at 12:33 PM
A dose of everything-is-fine-ism from me in @economist.com.
Amid worries about a slowdown in America
—The latest data isn't awful (even payrolls), and seems to have stopped getting worse
—That leaves America with more than enough growth to keep Europeans jealous
www.economist.com/finance-and...
Amid worries about a slowdown in America
—The latest data isn't awful (even payrolls), and seems to have stopped getting worse
—That leaves America with more than enough growth to keep Europeans jealous
www.economist.com/finance-and...
Charts with the same energy: longue duree Lib Dem polling and the VIX
September 15, 2025 at 9:29 AM
Charts with the same energy: longue duree Lib Dem polling and the VIX
One for the degens: pulled together a tracker of Fed betting markets w/ colleagues @economist.com.
Odds of Lisa Cook being ousted by December are still just 27%, and Waller has a narrow lead in the Fedstakes at 32%.
Link:
www.economist.com/interactive...
Odds of Lisa Cook being ousted by December are still just 27%, and Waller has a narrow lead in the Fedstakes at 32%.
Link:
www.economist.com/interactive...
September 3, 2025 at 8:46 PM
One for the degens: pulled together a tracker of Fed betting markets w/ colleagues @economist.com.
Odds of Lisa Cook being ousted by December are still just 27%, and Waller has a narrow lead in the Fedstakes at 32%.
Link:
www.economist.com/interactive...
Odds of Lisa Cook being ousted by December are still just 27%, and Waller has a narrow lead in the Fedstakes at 32%.
Link:
www.economist.com/interactive...
Has Britain's workforce sickness problem topped out?
September 3, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Has Britain's workforce sickness problem topped out?
Bracing chart from Deutsche on just how messy a compromised Fed can be for the dollar
September 2, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Bracing chart from Deutsche on just how messy a compromised Fed can be for the dollar
Reposted by Archie Hall
We’re looking for a writer to join us in London for 12 months
The Economist is hiring a science and technology correspondent
We’re looking for a writer to join us in London for 12 months
econ.st
September 2, 2025 at 5:05 PM
We’re looking for a writer to join us in London for 12 months
Petition to ban “unlocking” in British public policy, a term that obscures far more than it illuminates.
A brief lexicon:
— “Unlock investment” = backdoor subsidies
— “Fiscal rules unlock” = borrowing
— “Unlock money” = spending
— “Unlock new homes” = could have built them years ago
A brief lexicon:
— “Unlock investment” = backdoor subsidies
— “Fiscal rules unlock” = borrowing
— “Unlock money” = spending
— “Unlock new homes” = could have built them years ago
September 2, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Petition to ban “unlocking” in British public policy, a term that obscures far more than it illuminates.
A brief lexicon:
— “Unlock investment” = backdoor subsidies
— “Fiscal rules unlock” = borrowing
— “Unlock money” = spending
— “Unlock new homes” = could have built them years ago
A brief lexicon:
— “Unlock investment” = backdoor subsidies
— “Fiscal rules unlock” = borrowing
— “Unlock money” = spending
— “Unlock new homes” = could have built them years ago
The case not to worry, and then the case to worry about the attacks on the Fed, from me in @economist.com
Reassuringly, the path to stacking the Fed is narrow. But norms are fragile, and Trump's obsessions (see tariffs) tend to linger in US politics
Short 🧵 below
www.economist.com/finance-and...
Reassuringly, the path to stacking the Fed is narrow. But norms are fragile, and Trump's obsessions (see tariffs) tend to linger in US politics
Short 🧵 below
www.economist.com/finance-and...
How Trump’s war on the Federal Reserve could do serious damage
Just consider what happens if inflation starts to rise again
www.economist.com
August 28, 2025 at 2:14 PM
The case not to worry, and then the case to worry about the attacks on the Fed, from me in @economist.com
Reassuringly, the path to stacking the Fed is narrow. But norms are fragile, and Trump's obsessions (see tariffs) tend to linger in US politics
Short 🧵 below
www.economist.com/finance-and...
Reassuringly, the path to stacking the Fed is narrow. But norms are fragile, and Trump's obsessions (see tariffs) tend to linger in US politics
Short 🧵 below
www.economist.com/finance-and...
Quick overnight take on the Lisa Cook mess:
— A big, and troubling escalation in Trump's war on the Fed
— Market reaction you'd expect: broad selloff in US assets
— But: scale of the moves is not huge (bond yields have actually come back down). Still pricing in TACO
www.economist.com/finance-and...
— A big, and troubling escalation in Trump's war on the Fed
— Market reaction you'd expect: broad selloff in US assets
— But: scale of the moves is not huge (bond yields have actually come back down). Still pricing in TACO
www.economist.com/finance-and...
Trump “fires” Lisa Cook, escalating his war on the Federal Reserve
There is little precedent: no Fed governor has been dismissed for cause before
www.economist.com
August 26, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Quick overnight take on the Lisa Cook mess:
— A big, and troubling escalation in Trump's war on the Fed
— Market reaction you'd expect: broad selloff in US assets
— But: scale of the moves is not huge (bond yields have actually come back down). Still pricing in TACO
www.economist.com/finance-and...
— A big, and troubling escalation in Trump's war on the Fed
— Market reaction you'd expect: broad selloff in US assets
— But: scale of the moves is not huge (bond yields have actually come back down). Still pricing in TACO
www.economist.com/finance-and...
New Substack post: on what I've been thinking and writing about over the summer, including:
— Britain's worryingly not-cheapening wind turbines
— The possible demise of the Sun Belt migration boom
— America's growing fondness for Britshoring
Link ➡️ notes.archie-hall.com/p/what-i-wr...
— Britain's worryingly not-cheapening wind turbines
— The possible demise of the Sun Belt migration boom
— America's growing fondness for Britshoring
Link ➡️ notes.archie-hall.com/p/what-i-wr...
What I wrote this summer
Plus: a shift in focus for my work, and for this Substack
notes.archie-hall.com
August 25, 2025 at 2:50 PM
New Substack post: on what I've been thinking and writing about over the summer, including:
— Britain's worryingly not-cheapening wind turbines
— The possible demise of the Sun Belt migration boom
— America's growing fondness for Britshoring
Link ➡️ notes.archie-hall.com/p/what-i-wr...
— Britain's worryingly not-cheapening wind turbines
— The possible demise of the Sun Belt migration boom
— America's growing fondness for Britshoring
Link ➡️ notes.archie-hall.com/p/what-i-wr...
Had not expected Jeremy Hunt’s book to be so amusingly catty towards his successor
August 22, 2025 at 9:48 PM
Had not expected Jeremy Hunt’s book to be so amusingly catty towards his successor
My latest for @economist.com: on America's data-centre boom.
Vast short-run impact on GDP growth:
— Accounts for ~1/6th of growth over the past year
— And ~1/2 of growth over the past six months
But: so far still much smaller than the 1990s dotcom buildout. And...
www.economist.com/finance-and...
Vast short-run impact on GDP growth:
— Accounts for ~1/6th of growth over the past year
— And ~1/2 of growth over the past six months
But: so far still much smaller than the 1990s dotcom buildout. And...
www.economist.com/finance-and...
August 19, 2025 at 6:16 PM
My latest for @economist.com: on America's data-centre boom.
Vast short-run impact on GDP growth:
— Accounts for ~1/6th of growth over the past year
— And ~1/2 of growth over the past six months
But: so far still much smaller than the 1990s dotcom buildout. And...
www.economist.com/finance-and...
Vast short-run impact on GDP growth:
— Accounts for ~1/6th of growth over the past year
— And ~1/2 of growth over the past six months
But: so far still much smaller than the 1990s dotcom buildout. And...
www.economist.com/finance-and...
A vignette from me in @economist.com on NoMa: "The YIMBYest Neighbourhood in America"
August 17, 2025 at 3:55 PM
A vignette from me in @economist.com on NoMa: "The YIMBYest Neighbourhood in America"