Archie Hall
@archiehall.bsky.social
Writing for The Economist — mostly on the US and British economies, with occasional forays elsewhere. Previous lives in macro investing and polling.
Substack at: https://notes.archie-hall.com/
Substack at: https://notes.archie-hall.com/
Synthetic controls with a heavy weight on the US always worry me a little, but this is a careful bit of work from Nick Bloom and co with (as I see it) two big implications
1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..!
2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet
www.nber.org/papers/w34459
1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..!
2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet
www.nber.org/papers/w34459
November 13, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Synthetic controls with a heavy weight on the US always worry me a little, but this is a careful bit of work from Nick Bloom and co with (as I see it) two big implications
1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..!
2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet
www.nber.org/papers/w34459
1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..!
2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet
www.nber.org/papers/w34459
From an Economist leader in August 2000
November 11, 2025 at 4:34 PM
From an Economist leader in August 2000
That chart above is also a comparatively generous perspective. Zoom in on the one-month level (i.e. release-to-release) and initial ADP prints are pretty much entirely uncorrelated with initial private payrolls prints (and somewhat, but not vastly, correlated with final prints).
November 10, 2025 at 6:01 PM
That chart above is also a comparatively generous perspective. Zoom in on the one-month level (i.e. release-to-release) and initial ADP prints are pretty much entirely uncorrelated with initial private payrolls prints (and somewhat, but not vastly, correlated with final prints).
Another issue is that private-sector data tends to benchmark itself heavily to the official stuff.
That means even the better sources, like ADP's payrolls measure, look a lot worse when you look at the actual initial releases, not the final revisions.
That means even the better sources, like ADP's payrolls measure, look a lot worse when you look at the actual initial releases, not the final revisions.
November 10, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Another issue is that private-sector data tends to benchmark itself heavily to the official stuff.
That means even the better sources, like ADP's payrolls measure, look a lot worse when you look at the actual initial releases, not the final revisions.
That means even the better sources, like ADP's payrolls measure, look a lot worse when you look at the actual initial releases, not the final revisions.
One simply proxy for whether government data still matters is whether it moves markets. Over the past few years, government data has been more market-moving that ever.
November 10, 2025 at 6:01 PM
One simply proxy for whether government data still matters is whether it moves markets. Over the past few years, government data has been more market-moving that ever.
The trouble is that even in places with plenty of solid alternatives (like payrolls), they rarely agree.
Further down, a very quick 🧵 with a few more highlights.
Further down, a very quick 🧵 with a few more highlights.
November 10, 2025 at 6:01 PM
The trouble is that even in places with plenty of solid alternatives (like payrolls), they rarely agree.
Further down, a very quick 🧵 with a few more highlights.
Further down, a very quick 🧵 with a few more highlights.
You don't see a similar gap in the US, at least if you use the NY Fed inflation expectations data rather than the UMich series. (Even in the jumpier UMich series, the cause is pretty clearly tariffs, which is a fairly clear story.)
No pretty chart but see that roughly below:
No pretty chart but see that roughly below:
November 2, 2025 at 4:10 PM
You don't see a similar gap in the US, at least if you use the NY Fed inflation expectations data rather than the UMich series. (Even in the jumpier UMich series, the cause is pretty clearly tariffs, which is a fairly clear story.)
No pretty chart but see that roughly below:
No pretty chart but see that roughly below:
Here's something I don't have a good explanation for— British households' long-run inflation expectations are pretty severely de-anchored, but markets are totally relaxed.
November 2, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Here's something I don't have a good explanation for— British households' long-run inflation expectations are pretty severely de-anchored, but markets are totally relaxed.
Have data centres raised power bills? Not really, our analysis @economist.com finds—at least so far. Adding data centres to a state-level model of electricity prices shows no significant effect
But backlash is brewing. My latest, on the politics of the data centre: www.economist.com/united-state...
But backlash is brewing. My latest, on the politics of the data centre: www.economist.com/united-state...
October 30, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Have data centres raised power bills? Not really, our analysis @economist.com finds—at least so far. Adding data centres to a state-level model of electricity prices shows no significant effect
But backlash is brewing. My latest, on the politics of the data centre: www.economist.com/united-state...
But backlash is brewing. My latest, on the politics of the data centre: www.economist.com/united-state...
9/ The $100k H1-B fee also polls terribly: 57% of Americans opposite it, only 26% support it. Even among Republicans it's barely above water.
October 7, 2025 at 8:42 PM
9/ The $100k H1-B fee also polls terribly: 57% of Americans opposite it, only 26% support it. Even among Republicans it's barely above water.
8/ Will the policy stick?
Public opinion on migration has rebounded sharply upward this year. 79% of Americans now thing immigration is good for the country, the highest on record.
Public opinion on migration has rebounded sharply upward this year. 79% of Americans now thing immigration is good for the country, the highest on record.
October 7, 2025 at 8:42 PM
8/ Will the policy stick?
Public opinion on migration has rebounded sharply upward this year. 79% of Americans now thing immigration is good for the country, the highest on record.
Public opinion on migration has rebounded sharply upward this year. 79% of Americans now thing immigration is good for the country, the highest on record.
7/ ... its issues with an aging workforce, especially if what we're seeing today sticks.
October 7, 2025 at 8:42 PM
7/ ... its issues with an aging workforce, especially if what we're seeing today sticks.
6/ Zero Migration also worsens America's deficit problems, and...
October 7, 2025 at 8:42 PM
6/ Zero Migration also worsens America's deficit problems, and...
5/ The hit to growth from a serious attempt to squeeze skilled migration would be pretty stark.
October 7, 2025 at 8:42 PM
5/ The hit to growth from a serious attempt to squeeze skilled migration would be pretty stark.
4/ But the more consequential story is long-term.
The H1-B fee mess showed a fairly clear direction of travel on the Trump admin's desire to pull down skilled migration. The next place to watch is OPT, the post-grad work status that gets most talented foreigners into the US.
The H1-B fee mess showed a fairly clear direction of travel on the Trump admin's desire to pull down skilled migration. The next place to watch is OPT, the post-grad work status that gets most talented foreigners into the US.
October 7, 2025 at 8:42 PM
4/ But the more consequential story is long-term.
The H1-B fee mess showed a fairly clear direction of travel on the Trump admin's desire to pull down skilled migration. The next place to watch is OPT, the post-grad work status that gets most talented foreigners into the US.
The H1-B fee mess showed a fairly clear direction of travel on the Trump admin's desire to pull down skilled migration. The next place to watch is OPT, the post-grad work status that gets most talented foreigners into the US.
2/ What's happened? Crossings at the southern border have crashed after Trump's asylum ban.
Deportations are up and skilled-worker visa are already creeping down (even before talk of the $100k H1-B fee).
That is a stark reversal: net migration was ~2-3m in 2023 and 2024.
Deportations are up and skilled-worker visa are already creeping down (even before talk of the $100k H1-B fee).
That is a stark reversal: net migration was ~2-3m in 2023 and 2024.
October 7, 2025 at 8:42 PM
2/ What's happened? Crossings at the southern border have crashed after Trump's asylum ban.
Deportations are up and skilled-worker visa are already creeping down (even before talk of the $100k H1-B fee).
That is a stark reversal: net migration was ~2-3m in 2023 and 2024.
Deportations are up and skilled-worker visa are already creeping down (even before talk of the $100k H1-B fee).
That is a stark reversal: net migration was ~2-3m in 2023 and 2024.
For the first time in about 70 years, net immigration to America could be zero. Beneath the noise of tariff and budget fights, migration may well be the biggest economic story of 2025.
My latest for @economist.com: Welcome to Zero Migration America
Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
🧵 below
My latest for @economist.com: Welcome to Zero Migration America
Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
🧵 below
October 7, 2025 at 8:42 PM
For the first time in about 70 years, net immigration to America could be zero. Beneath the noise of tariff and budget fights, migration may well be the biggest economic story of 2025.
My latest for @economist.com: Welcome to Zero Migration America
Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
🧵 below
My latest for @economist.com: Welcome to Zero Migration America
Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
🧵 below
9/ The $100k H1-B fee also polls terribly: 57% of Americans opposite it, only 26% support it. Even among Republicans it's barely above water.
October 7, 2025 at 8:40 PM
9/ The $100k H1-B fee also polls terribly: 57% of Americans opposite it, only 26% support it. Even among Republicans it's barely above water.
8/ Will the policy stick?
Public opinion on migration has rebounded sharply upward this year. 79% of Americans now thing immigration is good for the country, the highest on record.
Public opinion on migration has rebounded sharply upward this year. 79% of Americans now thing immigration is good for the country, the highest on record.
October 7, 2025 at 8:40 PM
8/ Will the policy stick?
Public opinion on migration has rebounded sharply upward this year. 79% of Americans now thing immigration is good for the country, the highest on record.
Public opinion on migration has rebounded sharply upward this year. 79% of Americans now thing immigration is good for the country, the highest on record.
7/ ... its issues with an aging workforce, especially if what we're seeing today sticks.
October 7, 2025 at 8:40 PM
7/ ... its issues with an aging workforce, especially if what we're seeing today sticks.
6/ Zero Migration also worsens America's deficit problems, and...
October 7, 2025 at 8:40 PM
6/ Zero Migration also worsens America's deficit problems, and...
5/ The hit to growth from a serious attempt to squeeze skilled migration would be pretty stark.
October 7, 2025 at 8:40 PM
5/ The hit to growth from a serious attempt to squeeze skilled migration would be pretty stark.
4/ But the more consequential story is long-term.
The H1-B fee mess showed a fairly clear direction of travel on the Trump admin's desire to pull down skilled migration. The next place to watch is OPT, the post-grad work status that gets most talented foreigners into the US.
The H1-B fee mess showed a fairly clear direction of travel on the Trump admin's desire to pull down skilled migration. The next place to watch is OPT, the post-grad work status that gets most talented foreigners into the US.
October 7, 2025 at 8:40 PM
4/ But the more consequential story is long-term.
The H1-B fee mess showed a fairly clear direction of travel on the Trump admin's desire to pull down skilled migration. The next place to watch is OPT, the post-grad work status that gets most talented foreigners into the US.
The H1-B fee mess showed a fairly clear direction of travel on the Trump admin's desire to pull down skilled migration. The next place to watch is OPT, the post-grad work status that gets most talented foreigners into the US.
2/ What's happened? Crossings at the southern border have crashed after Trump's asylum ban.
Deportations are up and skilled-worker visa are already creeping down (even before talk of the $100k H1-B fee).
That is a stark reversal: net migration was ~2-3m in 2023 and 2024.
Deportations are up and skilled-worker visa are already creeping down (even before talk of the $100k H1-B fee).
That is a stark reversal: net migration was ~2-3m in 2023 and 2024.
October 7, 2025 at 8:40 PM
2/ What's happened? Crossings at the southern border have crashed after Trump's asylum ban.
Deportations are up and skilled-worker visa are already creeping down (even before talk of the $100k H1-B fee).
That is a stark reversal: net migration was ~2-3m in 2023 and 2024.
Deportations are up and skilled-worker visa are already creeping down (even before talk of the $100k H1-B fee).
That is a stark reversal: net migration was ~2-3m in 2023 and 2024.
Pretty crazy how the economic weakness of H1 2025 has just been... revised away
September 25, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Pretty crazy how the economic weakness of H1 2025 has just been... revised away