Archie Hall
@archiehall.bsky.social
Writing for The Economist — mostly on the US and British economies, with occasional forays elsewhere. Previous lives in macro investing and polling.
Substack at: https://notes.archie-hall.com/
Substack at: https://notes.archie-hall.com/
Pinned
A thread with a few Budget thoughts.
More here: notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...
1/ The shape of this budget depends on which year you look at. Three years out, it's more spending financed with more borrowing. Five years out, it's fiscally prudent tax rises. Up to you which will stick more.
More here: notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...
1/ The shape of this budget depends on which year you look at. Three years out, it's more spending financed with more borrowing. Five years out, it's fiscally prudent tax rises. Up to you which will stick more.
Pretty vast education splits in AI adoption-- especially at work.
Via Brookings: www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
Via Brookings: www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
December 2, 2025 at 9:33 PM
Pretty vast education splits in AI adoption-- especially at work.
Via Brookings: www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
Via Brookings: www.brookings.edu/articles/how...
How doomed is America's jobs market? I took a look for this week's @economist.com.
Certainly, there are some signs of weakness. But the labour market has been cooling gradually for several years now. What we've seen recently looks like a continuation, not a cliff.
www.economist.com/finance-and...
Certainly, there are some signs of weakness. But the labour market has been cooling gradually for several years now. What we've seen recently looks like a continuation, not a cliff.
www.economist.com/finance-and...
December 1, 2025 at 4:49 PM
How doomed is America's jobs market? I took a look for this week's @economist.com.
Certainly, there are some signs of weakness. But the labour market has been cooling gradually for several years now. What we've seen recently looks like a continuation, not a cliff.
www.economist.com/finance-and...
Certainly, there are some signs of weakness. But the labour market has been cooling gradually for several years now. What we've seen recently looks like a continuation, not a cliff.
www.economist.com/finance-and...
Farewell to the K. A brief but memorable tenure in the discourse.
November 28, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Farewell to the K. A brief but memorable tenure in the discourse.
Robotaxis will tranform cities more than we yet realise: my latest for @economist.com
— The tech will get cheaper. Dire traffic jams unless cities learn to love congestion taxes
— Denser city centres (few parking lots), but also more sprawl
— Cycling gets safer
www.economist.com/finance-and...
— The tech will get cheaper. Dire traffic jams unless cities learn to love congestion taxes
— Denser city centres (few parking lots), but also more sprawl
— Cycling gets safer
www.economist.com/finance-and...
November 27, 2025 at 6:48 PM
Robotaxis will tranform cities more than we yet realise: my latest for @economist.com
— The tech will get cheaper. Dire traffic jams unless cities learn to love congestion taxes
— Denser city centres (few parking lots), but also more sprawl
— Cycling gets safer
www.economist.com/finance-and...
— The tech will get cheaper. Dire traffic jams unless cities learn to love congestion taxes
— Denser city centres (few parking lots), but also more sprawl
— Cycling gets safer
www.economist.com/finance-and...
A slightly more considered, day-two take on the Budget from me—ruminating on the politics of it and rounding up some of the interesting bits I missed yesterday.
notes.archie-hall.com/p/a-few-nex...
notes.archie-hall.com/p/a-few-nex...
November 27, 2025 at 4:07 PM
A slightly more considered, day-two take on the Budget from me—ruminating on the politics of it and rounding up some of the interesting bits I missed yesterday.
notes.archie-hall.com/p/a-few-nex...
notes.archie-hall.com/p/a-few-nex...
Today, I think, there were actually two budgets: a spending-and borrowing heavy one for the next few years, and a more tax-heavy one for the very end of parliament.
The government will naturally talk up the first to its backbenchers, and the second to markets.
notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...
The government will naturally talk up the first to its backbenchers, and the second to markets.
notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...
November 26, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Today, I think, there were actually two budgets: a spending-and borrowing heavy one for the next few years, and a more tax-heavy one for the very end of parliament.
The government will naturally talk up the first to its backbenchers, and the second to markets.
notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...
The government will naturally talk up the first to its backbenchers, and the second to markets.
notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...
A thread with a few Budget thoughts.
More here: notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...
1/ The shape of this budget depends on which year you look at. Three years out, it's more spending financed with more borrowing. Five years out, it's fiscally prudent tax rises. Up to you which will stick more.
More here: notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...
1/ The shape of this budget depends on which year you look at. Three years out, it's more spending financed with more borrowing. Five years out, it's fiscally prudent tax rises. Up to you which will stick more.
November 26, 2025 at 3:17 PM
A thread with a few Budget thoughts.
More here: notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...
1/ The shape of this budget depends on which year you look at. Three years out, it's more spending financed with more borrowing. Five years out, it's fiscally prudent tax rises. Up to you which will stick more.
More here: notes.archie-hall.com/p/fifteen-t...
1/ The shape of this budget depends on which year you look at. Three years out, it's more spending financed with more borrowing. Five years out, it's fiscally prudent tax rises. Up to you which will stick more.
My quick verdict on the Budget, now up.
"Fifteen thoughts on the Budget"
open.substack.com/pub/archieh...
"Fifteen thoughts on the Budget"
open.substack.com/pub/archieh...
November 26, 2025 at 3:09 PM
My quick verdict on the Budget, now up.
"Fifteen thoughts on the Budget"
open.substack.com/pub/archieh...
"Fifteen thoughts on the Budget"
open.substack.com/pub/archieh...
Synthetic controls with a heavy weight on the US always worry me a little, but this is a careful bit of work from Nick Bloom and co with (as I see it) two big implications
1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..!
2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet
www.nber.org/papers/w34459
1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..!
2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet
www.nber.org/papers/w34459
November 13, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Synthetic controls with a heavy weight on the US always worry me a little, but this is a careful bit of work from Nick Bloom and co with (as I see it) two big implications
1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..!
2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet
www.nber.org/papers/w34459
1. They put the Brexit hit to GDP at 6-8%..!
2. Their measure of the damage hasn't bottomed out yet
www.nber.org/papers/w34459
Great piece: www.worksinprogress.news/p/why-the-de...
Why the developing world needs wider streets
Roads are the arteries of cities, making the whole more than the sum of its parts. Cities of the developing world need more of them.
www.worksinprogress.news
November 12, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Great piece: www.worksinprogress.news/p/why-the-de...
From an Economist leader in August 2000
November 11, 2025 at 4:34 PM
From an Economist leader in August 2000
As the shutdown grinds to an end, I took stock for @economist.com on how well private-sector data has done guiding America through the past few months' data drought.
www.economist.com/finance-and...
www.economist.com/finance-and...
November 10, 2025 at 6:01 PM
As the shutdown grinds to an end, I took stock for @economist.com on how well private-sector data has done guiding America through the past few months' data drought.
www.economist.com/finance-and...
www.economist.com/finance-and...
A quick take from me ahead of tomorrow’s Supreme Court arguments on IEEPA tariffs
— There are lots of non-IEEPA authorities Trump can use rebuild his tariff wall
— But, losing IEEPA will make the tariff-setting process more lumbering and chaotic. That could be a problem
economist.com/finance-and...
— There are lots of non-IEEPA authorities Trump can use rebuild his tariff wall
— But, losing IEEPA will make the tariff-setting process more lumbering and chaotic. That could be a problem
economist.com/finance-and...
November 4, 2025 at 5:46 PM
A quick take from me ahead of tomorrow’s Supreme Court arguments on IEEPA tariffs
— There are lots of non-IEEPA authorities Trump can use rebuild his tariff wall
— But, losing IEEPA will make the tariff-setting process more lumbering and chaotic. That could be a problem
economist.com/finance-and...
— There are lots of non-IEEPA authorities Trump can use rebuild his tariff wall
— But, losing IEEPA will make the tariff-setting process more lumbering and chaotic. That could be a problem
economist.com/finance-and...
Reposted by Archie Hall
Farage's jettisoning of the 2024 manifesto in favour of what promises to be a much more fiscally-conservative approach is a significant moment. My colleague @archiehall.bsky.social ran the rule over the policybook as late as May. It wasn't pretty. www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Nigel Farage’s economic plans are a disaster
Three choices: fiscal implosion, deep austerity or a hasty U-turn
www.economist.com
November 3, 2025 at 11:03 AM
Farage's jettisoning of the 2024 manifesto in favour of what promises to be a much more fiscally-conservative approach is a significant moment. My colleague @archiehall.bsky.social ran the rule over the policybook as late as May. It wasn't pretty. www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Here's something I don't have a good explanation for— British households' long-run inflation expectations are pretty severely de-anchored, but markets are totally relaxed.
November 2, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Here's something I don't have a good explanation for— British households' long-run inflation expectations are pretty severely de-anchored, but markets are totally relaxed.
Have data centres raised power bills? Not really, our analysis @economist.com finds—at least so far. Adding data centres to a state-level model of electricity prices shows no significant effect
But backlash is brewing. My latest, on the politics of the data centre: www.economist.com/united-state...
But backlash is brewing. My latest, on the politics of the data centre: www.economist.com/united-state...
October 30, 2025 at 3:22 PM
Have data centres raised power bills? Not really, our analysis @economist.com finds—at least so far. Adding data centres to a state-level model of electricity prices shows no significant effect
But backlash is brewing. My latest, on the politics of the data centre: www.economist.com/united-state...
But backlash is brewing. My latest, on the politics of the data centre: www.economist.com/united-state...
For the first time in about 70 years, net immigration to America could be zero. Beneath the noise of tariff and budget fights, migration may well be the biggest economic story of 2025.
My latest for @economist.com: Welcome to Zero Migration America
Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
🧵 below
My latest for @economist.com: Welcome to Zero Migration America
Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
🧵 below
October 7, 2025 at 8:42 PM
For the first time in about 70 years, net immigration to America could be zero. Beneath the noise of tariff and budget fights, migration may well be the biggest economic story of 2025.
My latest for @economist.com: Welcome to Zero Migration America
Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
🧵 below
My latest for @economist.com: Welcome to Zero Migration America
Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...
🧵 below
Pretty crazy how the economic weakness of H1 2025 has just been... revised away
September 25, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Pretty crazy how the economic weakness of H1 2025 has just been... revised away
Reposted by Archie Hall
Goes nicely with a slice of @spignal.bsky.social 's column about Europe's increasingly pungent lack of urgency www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
September 15, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Goes nicely with a slice of @spignal.bsky.social 's column about Europe's increasingly pungent lack of urgency www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
A dose of everything-is-fine-ism from me in @economist.com.
Amid worries about a slowdown in America
—The latest data isn't awful (even payrolls), and seems to have stopped getting worse
—That leaves America with more than enough growth to keep Europeans jealous
www.economist.com/finance-and...
Amid worries about a slowdown in America
—The latest data isn't awful (even payrolls), and seems to have stopped getting worse
—That leaves America with more than enough growth to keep Europeans jealous
www.economist.com/finance-and...
September 15, 2025 at 12:33 PM
A dose of everything-is-fine-ism from me in @economist.com.
Amid worries about a slowdown in America
—The latest data isn't awful (even payrolls), and seems to have stopped getting worse
—That leaves America with more than enough growth to keep Europeans jealous
www.economist.com/finance-and...
Amid worries about a slowdown in America
—The latest data isn't awful (even payrolls), and seems to have stopped getting worse
—That leaves America with more than enough growth to keep Europeans jealous
www.economist.com/finance-and...
Charts with the same energy: longue duree Lib Dem polling and the VIX
September 15, 2025 at 9:29 AM
Charts with the same energy: longue duree Lib Dem polling and the VIX
One for the degens: pulled together a tracker of Fed betting markets w/ colleagues @economist.com.
Odds of Lisa Cook being ousted by December are still just 27%, and Waller has a narrow lead in the Fedstakes at 32%.
Link:
www.economist.com/interactive...
Odds of Lisa Cook being ousted by December are still just 27%, and Waller has a narrow lead in the Fedstakes at 32%.
Link:
www.economist.com/interactive...
September 3, 2025 at 8:46 PM
One for the degens: pulled together a tracker of Fed betting markets w/ colleagues @economist.com.
Odds of Lisa Cook being ousted by December are still just 27%, and Waller has a narrow lead in the Fedstakes at 32%.
Link:
www.economist.com/interactive...
Odds of Lisa Cook being ousted by December are still just 27%, and Waller has a narrow lead in the Fedstakes at 32%.
Link:
www.economist.com/interactive...
Has Britain's workforce sickness problem topped out?
September 3, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Has Britain's workforce sickness problem topped out?
Bracing chart from Deutsche on just how messy a compromised Fed can be for the dollar
September 2, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Bracing chart from Deutsche on just how messy a compromised Fed can be for the dollar