Julian Hinz
@julianhi.nz
Economist focused on international economics—trade policy, sanctions, migration & applied econometrics. Bielefeld University and Kiel Institute.
Pinned
🚨 New KITE analysis on the EU–India trade deal: Simulations show sizable trade effects from the “mother of all deals” linking ~1/4 of global GDP and ~1/5 of the world’s population. Beyond gains, it strengthens supply-chain diversification and market access in an uncertain global economy.
Link here👇
Link here👇
The long-awaited EU–India FTA could boost bilateral trade by 41–65%, raise real incomes on both sides, & reduce reliance on riskier markets - linking economies that represent 21.1% of global GDP. A major win amid global trade fragmentation 👉 www.kielinstitut.de/publications...
January 27, 2026 at 10:51 AM
🚨 New KITE analysis on the EU–India trade deal: Simulations show sizable trade effects from the “mother of all deals” linking ~1/4 of global GDP and ~1/5 of the world’s population. Beyond gains, it strengthens supply-chain diversification and market access in an uncertain global economy.
Link here👇
Link here👇
Reposted by Julian Hinz
Our paper with @gaborbekes.bsky.social @julianhinz.bsky.social and Aaron Lohmann is/was on top of HN. 15 minutes, I guess.
January 26, 2026 at 2:52 PM
Our paper with @gaborbekes.bsky.social @julianhinz.bsky.social and Aaron Lohmann is/was on top of HN. 15 minutes, I guess.
Reposted by Julian Hinz
The PSE Trade Summer School 2026 will focus on Trade Policy and will feature @meredith-crowley.bsky.social @julianhi.nz @mathieupar.bsky.social Roberta Piermartini and myself. www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/en/summer-sc...
HTTPSwww.parisschoolofeconomics.eu
January 26, 2026 at 8:42 AM
The PSE Trade Summer School 2026 will focus on Trade Policy and will feature @meredith-crowley.bsky.social @julianhi.nz @mathieupar.bsky.social Roberta Piermartini and myself. www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/en/summer-sc...
Reposted by Julian Hinz
Vibe coding kills open source.
Our most direct title yet. @koren.mk @julianhi.nz @aaron-lohmann.bsky.social
Theory paper with numbers and policy recs. First at arxiv.org/abs/2601.15494
Comments welcome.
@ceu-economics.bsky.social @kiel.institute
Our most direct title yet. @koren.mk @julianhi.nz @aaron-lohmann.bsky.social
Theory paper with numbers and policy recs. First at arxiv.org/abs/2601.15494
Comments welcome.
@ceu-economics.bsky.social @kiel.institute
January 23, 2026 at 10:40 PM
Vibe coding kills open source.
Our most direct title yet. @koren.mk @julianhi.nz @aaron-lohmann.bsky.social
Theory paper with numbers and policy recs. First at arxiv.org/abs/2601.15494
Comments welcome.
@ceu-economics.bsky.social @kiel.institute
Our most direct title yet. @koren.mk @julianhi.nz @aaron-lohmann.bsky.social
Theory paper with numbers and policy recs. First at arxiv.org/abs/2601.15494
Comments welcome.
@ceu-economics.bsky.social @kiel.institute
Reposted by Julian Hinz
Teures Eigentor: US-Strafzölle treffen vor allem die eigene Wirtschaft: 96 % der Kosten tragen Importeure & Verbraucher in den USA, nicht ausländische Exporteure, wie neue Forschung von @julianhi.nz, @aaron-lohmann.bsky.social, @hendrikmahlkow.com & Anna Vorwig zeigt 👇
Eigentor: Amerikaner bezahlen fast vollständig für Trumps Zölle
Entgegen der Rhetorik der US-Regierung bleiben die Kosten der US-Strafzölle nicht an Exporteuren im Ausland hängen, sondern treffen die amerikanische Wirtschaft selbst. Importeure und Verbraucher in d...
www.kielinstitut.de
January 19, 2026 at 9:48 AM
Teures Eigentor: US-Strafzölle treffen vor allem die eigene Wirtschaft: 96 % der Kosten tragen Importeure & Verbraucher in den USA, nicht ausländische Exporteure, wie neue Forschung von @julianhi.nz, @aaron-lohmann.bsky.social, @hendrikmahlkow.com & Anna Vorwig zeigt 👇
Reposted by Julian Hinz
US consumers bore 96% of the cost of the 2025 Trump tariffs.
Impeccable timing for this paper by @julianhi.nz and colleagues at @kiel.institute.
www.kielinstitut.de/de/publikati...
Impeccable timing for this paper by @julianhi.nz and colleagues at @kiel.institute.
www.kielinstitut.de/de/publikati...
America’s Own Goal: Who Pays the Tariffs? - Kiel Institut
www.kielinstitut.de
January 19, 2026 at 1:47 PM
US consumers bore 96% of the cost of the 2025 Trump tariffs.
Impeccable timing for this paper by @julianhi.nz and colleagues at @kiel.institute.
www.kielinstitut.de/de/publikati...
Impeccable timing for this paper by @julianhi.nz and colleagues at @kiel.institute.
www.kielinstitut.de/de/publikati...
Reposted by Julian Hinz
Mindestimportpreise für chinesische E-Autos sind die schlechteste Lösung, kommentiert @julianhi.nz, sie zementieren Überkapazitäten, schaffen ein Bürokratie- und Lobbying-Monster und die EU verschenkt mit einer solchen Maßnahme massive Einnahmen 👇
Mindestimportpreise für Chinas E-Autos: „Schlechteste aller Lösungen“
Julian Hinz, Leiter der Forschungsgruppe Handelspolitik am Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft, kommentiert die Entscheidung der Europäischen Kommission zu Preisverpflichtungen (Mindestimportpreisen) für...
www.kielinstitut.de
January 15, 2026 at 9:26 AM
Mindestimportpreise für chinesische E-Autos sind die schlechteste Lösung, kommentiert @julianhi.nz, sie zementieren Überkapazitäten, schaffen ein Bürokratie- und Lobbying-Monster und die EU verschenkt mit einer solchen Maßnahme massive Einnahmen 👇
Reposted by Julian Hinz
⌛️Deadline approaching in 5 days!
Whether you've already applied, are applying now or in a caffeine-powered final push on Sunday at 23:59, we can’t wait to read your file. ☕📄
🔶 #EconJobMarket 👉 econjobmarket.org/positions/12...
@julianhi.nz
Whether you've already applied, are applying now or in a caffeine-powered final push on Sunday at 23:59, we can’t wait to read your file. ☕📄
🔶 #EconJobMarket 👉 econjobmarket.org/positions/12...
@julianhi.nz
November 25, 2025 at 5:17 PM
⌛️Deadline approaching in 5 days!
Whether you've already applied, are applying now or in a caffeine-powered final push on Sunday at 23:59, we can’t wait to read your file. ☕📄
🔶 #EconJobMarket 👉 econjobmarket.org/positions/12...
@julianhi.nz
Whether you've already applied, are applying now or in a caffeine-powered final push on Sunday at 23:59, we can’t wait to read your file. ☕📄
🔶 #EconJobMarket 👉 econjobmarket.org/positions/12...
@julianhi.nz
Exciting times ahead: we’re launching the first cohort of the Albert O. Hirschman PostDoc Program in Berlin/Kiel — apply now!
📢 We are proud to launch the Albert O. Hirschman PostDoc Program in Berlin/Kiel. Join a small, ambitious cohort exploring international economics broadly defined: trade, macro, development,..., geoeconomics!
🔶Start September 2026
🔶Apply via #EconJobMarket 👉 econjobmarket.org/positions/12...
🔶Start September 2026
🔶Apply via #EconJobMarket 👉 econjobmarket.org/positions/12...
November 13, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Exciting times ahead: we’re launching the first cohort of the Albert O. Hirschman PostDoc Program in Berlin/Kiel — apply now!
Reposted by Julian Hinz
Ein „Deal“ im #Handelsstreit 🇺🇸🇨🇳 könnte Zollpausen & Ausnahmen bei Exportkontrollen bringen, sagt @julianhi.nz #tagesthemen. Beide Seiten können gewinnen & verlieren, Zollniveau bleibt höher als vor Trump. Größtes Plus für 🇪🇺: weniger Unsicherheit 👇
Julian Hinz, Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft, über mögliche Handeldeals zwischen China und den USA
Julian Hinz, Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft, über mögliche Handeldeals zwischen China und den USA
www.tagesschau.de
October 28, 2025 at 4:45 AM
Ein „Deal“ im #Handelsstreit 🇺🇸🇨🇳 könnte Zollpausen & Ausnahmen bei Exportkontrollen bringen, sagt @julianhi.nz #tagesthemen. Beide Seiten können gewinnen & verlieren, Zollniveau bleibt höher als vor Trump. Größtes Plus für 🇪🇺: weniger Unsicherheit 👇
Reposted by Julian Hinz
Simulations with the KITE Model show a joint response would raise US costs by 34% vs. no retaliation—reaching ~60% of the effect of a global reaction. In contrast, going it alone is less effective and riskier, esp. for integrated economies like 🇨🇦 & 🇲🇽 👇 @emanuelornelas.bsky.social @ckhead.bsky.social
The US is playing countries off against each other. A coalition of the 🇪🇺,🇨🇦,🇲🇽,🇧🇷 & 🇰🇷 could put real pressure on Washington with a joint response. They would have strong leverage against tariffs. Read more in the new KPB 👉 ifw-kiel.de/publications...
@julianhi.nz @schularick.bsky.social
@julianhi.nz @schularick.bsky.social
July 24, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Simulations with the KITE Model show a joint response would raise US costs by 34% vs. no retaliation—reaching ~60% of the effect of a global reaction. In contrast, going it alone is less effective and riskier, esp. for integrated economies like 🇨🇦 & 🇲🇽 👇 @emanuelornelas.bsky.social @ckhead.bsky.social
There is talk of an EU-US trade deal. The EU shouldn't agree to a WTO rule-breaking shakedown that undermines the multilateral system. Instead, it should build a coalition to push back.👇
NB: The piece is written by a coalition of coauthors from Canada, Brazil, France and Germany.
NB: The piece is written by a coalition of coauthors from Canada, Brazil, France and Germany.
The US is playing countries off against each other. A coalition of the 🇪🇺,🇨🇦,🇲🇽,🇧🇷 & 🇰🇷 could put real pressure on Washington with a joint response. They would have strong leverage against tariffs. Read more in the new KPB 👉 ifw-kiel.de/publications...
@julianhi.nz @schularick.bsky.social
@julianhi.nz @schularick.bsky.social
July 24, 2025 at 5:17 PM
There is talk of an EU-US trade deal. The EU shouldn't agree to a WTO rule-breaking shakedown that undermines the multilateral system. Instead, it should build a coalition to push back.👇
NB: The piece is written by a coalition of coauthors from Canada, Brazil, France and Germany.
NB: The piece is written by a coalition of coauthors from Canada, Brazil, France and Germany.
Happening now ⬇️
Register now for the next Kiel Trade Talk! Chek Yin Choi @iies.su.se presents research on how falling global search costs have reshaped firm size, trade patterns, and market concentration—favoring both top and small firms in complex ways 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
@julianhi.nz
@julianhi.nz
July 4, 2025 at 10:07 AM
Happening now ⬇️
Reposted by Julian Hinz
Register now for the next Kiel Trade Talk! Chek Yin Choi @iies.su.se presents research on how falling global search costs have reshaped firm size, trade patterns, and market concentration—favoring both top and small firms in complex ways 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
@julianhi.nz
@julianhi.nz
June 26, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Register now for the next Kiel Trade Talk! Chek Yin Choi @iies.su.se presents research on how falling global search costs have reshaped firm size, trade patterns, and market concentration—favoring both top and small firms in complex ways 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
@julianhi.nz
@julianhi.nz
Reposted by Julian Hinz
#Globalisierung unter Druck! 🌍 Wie muss sich Deutschland in einer "post-globalisierten" Welt aufstellen? @julianhi.nz & Aurora Li diskutieren über die neue, unsichere #Handelsordnung.
📌Berlin-Mitte
📅 25.6., ab 18:30 Uhr
Jetzt anmelden! 👉
share-eu1.hsforms.com/1nYIsVdHnTyq...
📌Berlin-Mitte
📅 25.6., ab 18:30 Uhr
Jetzt anmelden! 👉
share-eu1.hsforms.com/1nYIsVdHnTyq...
Form
share-eu1.hsforms.com
June 24, 2025 at 2:42 PM
#Globalisierung unter Druck! 🌍 Wie muss sich Deutschland in einer "post-globalisierten" Welt aufstellen? @julianhi.nz & Aurora Li diskutieren über die neue, unsichere #Handelsordnung.
📌Berlin-Mitte
📅 25.6., ab 18:30 Uhr
Jetzt anmelden! 👉
share-eu1.hsforms.com/1nYIsVdHnTyq...
📌Berlin-Mitte
📅 25.6., ab 18:30 Uhr
Jetzt anmelden! 👉
share-eu1.hsforms.com/1nYIsVdHnTyq...
Reposted by Julian Hinz
unsere grundlagenfolge zu zöllen mit @julianhi.nz ist nun frei für alle: mikrooekonomen.de/premiummikro...
(Premium)MikroGespräch044 mit Julian Hinz über Donald Trumps Handelskrieg - Mikroökonomen
Julian Hinz und Marco Herack besprechen Zölle. Was sie sind, wohin sie führen und wie Donald Trumps Zölle wirken könnten. Da Wortwahl manchmal schwierig ist, fragen wir uns auch: Befinden wir uns in e...
mikrooekonomen.de
June 20, 2025 at 3:54 PM
unsere grundlagenfolge zu zöllen mit @julianhi.nz ist nun frei für alle: mikrooekonomen.de/premiummikro...
Reposted by Julian Hinz
🍕 Jetzt anmelden zum Pizza-Event mit @julianhi.nz zum Thema Welthandel & Globalisierung - bei unseren Büronachbarn in Berlin @dezernatzukunft.bsky.social 👇
#Welthandel am Abgrund?
In 8 Tagen diskutieren wir bei Pizza & Getränken mit Handelsökonom Julian Hinz (@kielinstitute) über die Zukunft der #Globalisierung.
📅 25. Juni, 18:30 Uhr
📍 Dezernat Zukunft, Berlin
Jetzt anmelden:
share-eu1.hsforms.com/1nYIsVdHnTyq... cc @schularick.bsky.social
In 8 Tagen diskutieren wir bei Pizza & Getränken mit Handelsökonom Julian Hinz (@kielinstitute) über die Zukunft der #Globalisierung.
📅 25. Juni, 18:30 Uhr
📍 Dezernat Zukunft, Berlin
Jetzt anmelden:
share-eu1.hsforms.com/1nYIsVdHnTyq... cc @schularick.bsky.social
June 18, 2025 at 6:48 AM
🍕 Jetzt anmelden zum Pizza-Event mit @julianhi.nz zum Thema Welthandel & Globalisierung - bei unseren Büronachbarn in Berlin @dezernatzukunft.bsky.social 👇
Reposted by Julian Hinz
Join us for the next Kiel Trade Talks! Laszlo Tetenyi @bportugal.pt presents research on Malawi’s Farm Input Subsidy Program and its impact on welfare, undernutrition, and resource allocation.
Register here 👉 ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
@julianhi.nz
Register here 👉 ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
@julianhi.nz
June 9, 2025 at 7:58 AM
Join us for the next Kiel Trade Talks! Laszlo Tetenyi @bportugal.pt presents research on Malawi’s Farm Input Subsidy Program and its impact on welfare, undernutrition, and resource allocation.
Register here 👉 ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
@julianhi.nz
Register here 👉 ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
@julianhi.nz
Looking forward to this @BrookingsInst event on Thursday on the state of the Russia sanctions ⬇️
Oil tankers and Russia's shadow fleet are Putin's Achilles heel. We're doing a @brookings.edu event on the shadow fleet this week to discuss policy options, with a panel discussion that includes @julianhi.nz and a kick-off presentation by @econharris.bsky.social.
www.brookings.edu/events/backi...
www.brookings.edu/events/backi...
Backing Ukraine: What’s next for Russian sanctions?
On June 5, Brookings will host a panel of distinguished scholars to discuss the risks of Russian oil sanctions.
www.brookings.edu
June 3, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Looking forward to this @BrookingsInst event on Thursday on the state of the Russia sanctions ⬇️
🚨 KITE Insta-Analys: Trump just suggested additional 50% tariff on all goods imports from EU. This one would hurt the EU: 🇩🇪 Germany real output falls –0.78%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –0.66%, 🇺🇸 US -1.51%. In EU hardest hit sector is transportation (automotive, aircraft, etc.): -5% real production. 1/n
May 23, 2025 at 1:00 PM
🚨 KITE Insta-Analys: Trump just suggested additional 50% tariff on all goods imports from EU. This one would hurt the EU: 🇩🇪 Germany real output falls –0.78%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –0.66%, 🇺🇸 US -1.51%. In EU hardest hit sector is transportation (automotive, aircraft, etc.): -5% real production. 1/n
Reposted by Julian Hinz
📈 📊 Two days of lively discussion & exchange on global supply chains, intangibles, and services. The RETHINK-GSC Gdańsk Workshop offered valuable insights & fresh perspectives for application.
Read more 👉: rethink-gsc.eu/rethink-gsc-...
#RETHINK-GSC #GlobalSupplyChains #EU-funded #HorizonEU
Read more 👉: rethink-gsc.eu/rethink-gsc-...
#RETHINK-GSC #GlobalSupplyChains #EU-funded #HorizonEU
May 21, 2025 at 8:04 AM
📈 📊 Two days of lively discussion & exchange on global supply chains, intangibles, and services. The RETHINK-GSC Gdańsk Workshop offered valuable insights & fresh perspectives for application.
Read more 👉: rethink-gsc.eu/rethink-gsc-...
#RETHINK-GSC #GlobalSupplyChains #EU-funded #HorizonEU
Read more 👉: rethink-gsc.eu/rethink-gsc-...
#RETHINK-GSC #GlobalSupplyChains #EU-funded #HorizonEU
Reposted by Julian Hinz
Neue Folge MikroGespräch (Premium): Ich habe mit mich mit @julianhi.nz über Zölle unterhalten. Von ihrer Funktion über die Trump'schen Auswirkungen und ob man das alles 'Strafzölle' oder 'globaler Handelskrieg' nennen sollte. mikrooekonomen.de/premiummikro...
(Premium)MikroGespräch044 mit Julian Hinz über Donald Trumps Handelskrieg - Mikroökonomen
Julian Hinz und Marco Herack besprechen Zölle. Was sie sind, wohin sie führen und wie Donald Trumps Zölle wirken könnten. Da Wortwahl manchmal schwierig ist, fragen wir uns auch: Befinden wir uns in e...
mikrooekonomen.de
May 20, 2025 at 7:28 AM
Neue Folge MikroGespräch (Premium): Ich habe mit mich mit @julianhi.nz über Zölle unterhalten. Von ihrer Funktion über die Trump'schen Auswirkungen und ob man das alles 'Strafzölle' oder 'globaler Handelskrieg' nennen sollte. mikrooekonomen.de/premiummikro...
Reposted by Julian Hinz
📢 Kiel Trade Talks #8 - Alina Sorgner (John Cabot University
& Kiel Institute) will present research on regional patterns of AI adoption in European firms using novel web-scraped data.
Register now, as the event is already scheduled for Friday 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
@julianhi.nz
& Kiel Institute) will present research on regional patterns of AI adoption in European firms using novel web-scraped data.
Register now, as the event is already scheduled for Friday 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
@julianhi.nz
May 20, 2025 at 6:46 AM
📢 Kiel Trade Talks #8 - Alina Sorgner (John Cabot University
& Kiel Institute) will present research on regional patterns of AI adoption in European firms using novel web-scraped data.
Register now, as the event is already scheduled for Friday 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
@julianhi.nz
& Kiel Institute) will present research on regional patterns of AI adoption in European firms using novel web-scraped data.
Register now, as the event is already scheduled for Friday 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
@julianhi.nz
Reposted by Julian Hinz
…and the rest of the workshop didn’t disappoint either - great keynote, two more paper presentations, many conversations, sharp minds, and plenty of inspiration! Thanks to all speakers and participants 👏!
@cepr.org @schularick.bsky.social @julianhi.nz @joschkawanner.bsky.social
@cepr.org @schularick.bsky.social @julianhi.nz @joschkawanner.bsky.social
May 16, 2025 at 10:17 AM
…and the rest of the workshop didn’t disappoint either - great keynote, two more paper presentations, many conversations, sharp minds, and plenty of inspiration! Thanks to all speakers and participants 👏!
@cepr.org @schularick.bsky.social @julianhi.nz @joschkawanner.bsky.social
@cepr.org @schularick.bsky.social @julianhi.nz @joschkawanner.bsky.social
Reposted by Julian Hinz
Great start to the Kiel-CEPR "Firms in International Trade" workshop in Berlin today! Insightful presentations by Paola Conconi, Holger Breinlich, @emilyjblanchard.bsky.social & @aggraziano.bsky.social! Up next: keynote by @imanelici.bsky.social – looking forward! 👉 ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...
May 15, 2025 at 11:18 AM
Great start to the Kiel-CEPR "Firms in International Trade" workshop in Berlin today! Insightful presentations by Paola Conconi, Holger Breinlich, @emilyjblanchard.bsky.social & @aggraziano.bsky.social! Up next: keynote by @imanelici.bsky.social – looking forward! 👉 ifw-kiel.de/institute/ev...