We really don't know much at this point. We'll update these numbers once we do. In the meantime, find other scenario simulations at Kiel Trade & Tariffs Monitor: kiel.institute/tariffs 4/4

Take the numbers with a huge grain of salt, but the measures obviously also significantly increase deflationary pressure in Eurozone and inflationary pressure in US: Price index dives across Europe, with 🇩🇪 –2.70%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –2.43%, versus global uptick of +0.69%. 3/n

Should this be enacted and stay in place for about a year, we expect exports to the US collapse: 🇩🇪 Germany –23.85%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –20.64%, global trade barely moves at –0.30%. 2/n

PS: To reiterate — the US tariffs are now still about 6x (six!) as high as they were in January. Or if you like big numbers, +500%. This is not a win for the US administration, they reduce their self-induced harm a bit.

Bottom line: Tariff pause reduces immediate damage, especially for the US, but uncertainty remains high. More data and scenarios on the Kiel Trade & Tariffs Monitor: kiel.institute/tariffs 4/4

Price impacts remain significant: 🇺🇸 US prices now reduced to (!) +4.27% within 1yr, 🇨🇳 China sees -1.51% deflationary pressure. 🇩🇪 Germany (-0.38%), 🇪🇺 EU (-0.27%) similar to before. 3/n

There will be a big catching-up in Chinese exports to the US now — but remember, exports still face +30% tariffs: Within 1 year, we still see 🇨🇳 China’s export drop to US by -19.10%. 2/n