Alan Wager
@dralanwager.bsky.social
Politics, public opinion and public policy at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
Email: a.wager@institute.global
Email: a.wager@institute.global
Reposted by Alan Wager
Just a reminder that my new book on the Blair years is in the @manchesterup.bsky.social SALE right now - and it's only £12 in hardback! You've got until Saturday night to snap up the bargain...
manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/9781526146328/
manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/9781526146328/
Manchester University Press - New Labour, New Britain?
New Labour, New Britain? - Browse and buy the Hardcover edition of New Labour, New Britain? by Glen O'Hara
manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk
January 29, 2026 at 10:30 AM
Just a reminder that my new book on the Blair years is in the @manchesterup.bsky.social SALE right now - and it's only £12 in hardback! You've got until Saturday night to snap up the bargain...
manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/9781526146328/
manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk/9781526146328/
Reposted by Alan Wager
This is just such a funny quirk on this site. Tons of people are using AI. The genie is out of the bottle and it's not going anywhere
lots of people, especially on here, are fastened onto the idea that it's just AI bro marketing or whatever to consider it a fixture of the information landscape. it's easy to think that when everyone in your circles is an ethical AI refuser. but I'm afraid it really has been mass adopted.
January 29, 2026 at 8:41 AM
This is just such a funny quirk on this site. Tons of people are using AI. The genie is out of the bottle and it's not going anywhere
Reposted by Alan Wager
Tell me again how this BBC editorialising is just my cognitive bias... This isn't a quote from anywhere. It's just the BBC's description of this disgraced, divisive politician.
January 28, 2026 at 1:16 PM
Tell me again how this BBC editorialising is just my cognitive bias... This isn't a quote from anywhere. It's just the BBC's description of this disgraced, divisive politician.
Reposted by Alan Wager
This is quite the high street data tool www.theguardian.com/business/ng-...
How has your local high street changed since 2019? Check your postcode
The makeup of Great Britain’s high streets has changed dramatically. See what the data says about where you live
www.theguardian.com
January 28, 2026 at 10:48 AM
This is quite the high street data tool www.theguardian.com/business/ng-...
Reposted by Alan Wager
Business rate relief for pubs and music venues will be welcomed across Walthamstow - many are much loved local institutions. But so too are our cafes, restaurants and even soft play centres that also need the same help with running costs. share this to support hospitality venues for all ages!
January 27, 2026 at 8:43 PM
Business rate relief for pubs and music venues will be welcomed across Walthamstow - many are much loved local institutions. But so too are our cafes, restaurants and even soft play centres that also need the same help with running costs. share this to support hospitality venues for all ages!
Reposted by Alan Wager
More members of Liz Truss's cabinet are in Reform than in Badenoch's shadow cabinet...
January 26, 2026 at 1:12 PM
More members of Liz Truss's cabinet are in Reform than in Badenoch's shadow cabinet...
Reposted by Alan Wager
Sure, but the NEC are the National Executive Committee of the Labour Party and the question they had to answer was what was best for the Labour Party.
Luckily for all of us, the voters will pass judgement.
Luckily for all of us, the voters will pass judgement.
January 26, 2026 at 9:43 AM
Sure, but the NEC are the National Executive Committee of the Labour Party and the question they had to answer was what was best for the Labour Party.
Luckily for all of us, the voters will pass judgement.
Luckily for all of us, the voters will pass judgement.
Reposted by Alan Wager
"There are few more impressive sights in the world than a Scotsman on the make"
January 24, 2026 at 12:02 PM
"There are few more impressive sights in the world than a Scotsman on the make"
And Patrick Maguire says it will (probably) happen.
Labour Kremlinologist fans, choose your fighter!
Labour Kremlinologist fans, choose your fighter!
Today’s newsletter: it’s just - still! - really difficult for Andy Burnham to get back into Westminster:
Odds are stacked against Andy Burnham in No 10
Selection seems unlikely and there’s no guarantee that Greater Manchester mayor would appeal more than Keir Starmer
www.ft.com
January 23, 2026 at 7:18 PM
And Patrick Maguire says it will (probably) happen.
Labour Kremlinologist fans, choose your fighter!
Labour Kremlinologist fans, choose your fighter!
Reposted by Alan Wager
obviously correct!
January 23, 2026 at 4:13 PM
obviously correct!
@bwalker.uk is the one to follow for data points on Burnham and what might happen if it happens.
This is particularly striking:
This is particularly striking:
January 23, 2026 at 3:54 PM
@bwalker.uk is the one to follow for data points on Burnham and what might happen if it happens.
This is particularly striking:
This is particularly striking:
Reposted by Alan Wager
Tory MP Simon Hoare has given a very vivid quote about Donald Trump's comments on Nato allies, which could actually be used in many contexts about the US president:
"Frankly Trump makes my flesh creep and my stomach turn. Where are his advisors? Where is his nurse? Where is his sense of shame?"
"Frankly Trump makes my flesh creep and my stomach turn. Where are his advisors? Where is his nurse? Where is his sense of shame?"
January 23, 2026 at 10:39 AM
Tory MP Simon Hoare has given a very vivid quote about Donald Trump's comments on Nato allies, which could actually be used in many contexts about the US president:
"Frankly Trump makes my flesh creep and my stomach turn. Where are his advisors? Where is his nurse? Where is his sense of shame?"
"Frankly Trump makes my flesh creep and my stomach turn. Where are his advisors? Where is his nurse? Where is his sense of shame?"
McSweeney in zugzwang
Keir Starmer allies have told PolHome that Andy Burnham won't be allowed to stand as Labour's candidate in the by-election in a newly vacated Greater Manchester seat
Sources have suggested to Sienna Rodgers that the party NEC could draw up a list of female candidates only, or an all-BAME shortlist
Sources have suggested to Sienna Rodgers that the party NEC could draw up a list of female candidates only, or an all-BAME shortlist
Starmer Allies Say Burnham Will Not Be Allowed To Stand For Manchester Seat
Allies of Keir Starmer have told PoliticsHome that Andy Burnham will not be allowed to stand as the Labour candidate in the upcoming by-election in...
www.politicshome.com
January 22, 2026 at 10:38 PM
McSweeney in zugzwang
Reposted by Alan Wager
Starmer maybe rightly doesn’t take bait each time but he needs an outrider - a semi-licensed “off message” attack dog - to make Haw-Haw Farage pay for sucking up to the guy who denigrates British war dead.
Trump on NATO: "I've always said, will they be there if we ever needed them? That's really the ultimate test. I'm not sure of that. We've never needed them. They'll say they sent some troops to Afghanistan and this or that. And they did. They stayed a little back, off the front lines."
January 22, 2026 at 1:46 PM
Starmer maybe rightly doesn’t take bait each time but he needs an outrider - a semi-licensed “off message” attack dog - to make Haw-Haw Farage pay for sucking up to the guy who denigrates British war dead.
No doubt this is correct reporting. But it really is peak Labour, risible, tail wagging dog, wood from trees etc etc.
In any case, isn’t it likely a surge in membership subs would cover this cost?
In any case, isn’t it likely a surge in membership subs would cover this cost?
👇 My experience also. And not just a factional thing: as one Starmer critic on the NEC said ‘we really are broke, it really isn’t an unreasonable ask that we not have a GMCA byelection”. (paraphrasing)
Have asked a number of NEC members to tell me the chances Andy Burnham has of being selected to fight a by-election.
Every single one says zero.
Every single one says zero.
January 22, 2026 at 2:18 PM
No doubt this is correct reporting. But it really is peak Labour, risible, tail wagging dog, wood from trees etc etc.
In any case, isn’t it likely a surge in membership subs would cover this cost?
In any case, isn’t it likely a surge in membership subs would cover this cost?
Reposted by Alan Wager
So it was Badenoch *personally* who stabbed Britain in the back during the Greenland crisis! Simply unbelievable. Ought to be a resignation matter.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
How Badenoch’s meeting with Mike Johnson led to Trump’s Chagos deal rant
A brief encounter set off a chain of events that culminated in a public rebuff to the US president from Keir Starmer
www.theguardian.com
January 22, 2026 at 9:58 AM
So it was Badenoch *personally* who stabbed Britain in the back during the Greenland crisis! Simply unbelievable. Ought to be a resignation matter.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
Reposted by Alan Wager
24% of people who voted Labour at the last general election now plan to
vote Green or Lib Dem.
0% of those who voted Reform at the last election now plan to vote Labour.
vote Green or Lib Dem.
0% of those who voted Reform at the last election now plan to vote Labour.
January 21, 2026 at 10:05 PM
24% of people who voted Labour at the last general election now plan to
vote Green or Lib Dem.
0% of those who voted Reform at the last election now plan to vote Labour.
vote Green or Lib Dem.
0% of those who voted Reform at the last election now plan to vote Labour.
Reposted by Alan Wager
Very strong demand at this morning's gilt auction - bids worth 3.66 times the £4.75 billion on offer for a 4% gilt due in 2029.
It ranks as the 9th strongest out of the 1,208 auctions held since 1998.
DMO said to be ecstatic, someone has broken out a packet of Blue Ribands.
It ranks as the 9th strongest out of the 1,208 auctions held since 1998.
DMO said to be ecstatic, someone has broken out a packet of Blue Ribands.
January 21, 2026 at 10:22 AM
Very strong demand at this morning's gilt auction - bids worth 3.66 times the £4.75 billion on offer for a 4% gilt due in 2029.
It ranks as the 9th strongest out of the 1,208 auctions held since 1998.
DMO said to be ecstatic, someone has broken out a packet of Blue Ribands.
It ranks as the 9th strongest out of the 1,208 auctions held since 1998.
DMO said to be ecstatic, someone has broken out a packet of Blue Ribands.
New, from @gelliottmorris.com, for those in the market for some hope.
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
January 21, 2026 at 11:43 AM
New, from @gelliottmorris.com, for those in the market for some hope.
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
Reposted by Alan Wager
They got so so much wrong. And we are all paying the price.
January 21, 2026 at 7:56 AM
They got so so much wrong. And we are all paying the price.
Reposted by Alan Wager
In the face of Trump’s threats, Britain’s best path is clearer than ever: hurry back to Europe | Stella Creasy
In the face of Trump’s threats, Britain’s best path is clearer than ever: hurry back to Europe | Stella Creasy
Labour must urgently seek new roles and alliances, while also enhancing the UK’s own military capabilities, says Stella Creasy, MP and chair of the Labour Movement for Europe
www.theguardian.com
January 20, 2026 at 4:38 PM
In the face of Trump’s threats, Britain’s best path is clearer than ever: hurry back to Europe | Stella Creasy
Deeper and urgent economic and security integration with Europe, without the side order of ‘leaving NATO’ and ‘unilateral nuclear disarmament’.
A path forward to react to this crisis without abandoning principles and allies, from @stellacreasy.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
A path forward to react to this crisis without abandoning principles and allies, from @stellacreasy.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
In the face of Trump’s threats, Britain’s best path is clearer than ever: hurry back to Europe | Stella Creasy
Labour must urgently seek new roles and alliances, while also enhancing the UK’s own military capabilities, says Stella Creasy, MP and chair of the Labour Movement for Europe
www.theguardian.com
January 20, 2026 at 5:10 PM
Deeper and urgent economic and security integration with Europe, without the side order of ‘leaving NATO’ and ‘unilateral nuclear disarmament’.
A path forward to react to this crisis without abandoning principles and allies, from @stellacreasy.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
A path forward to react to this crisis without abandoning principles and allies, from @stellacreasy.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Reposted by Alan Wager
Single most interesting data point over the medium term is the decline in the health number.
YouGov most important issues tracker, 17-19 January 2026
Economy: 53% (no change from 10-12 Jan)
Immigration: 50% (=)
Health: 33% (-1)
Defence: 25% (-1)
Crime: 18% (+2)
Tax: 17% (-1)
Housing: 17% (+1)
Welfare: 16% (=)
Environment: 15% (=)
Europe: 13% (=)
yougov.co.uk/topics/socie...
Economy: 53% (no change from 10-12 Jan)
Immigration: 50% (=)
Health: 33% (-1)
Defence: 25% (-1)
Crime: 18% (+2)
Tax: 17% (-1)
Housing: 17% (+1)
Welfare: 16% (=)
Environment: 15% (=)
Europe: 13% (=)
yougov.co.uk/topics/socie...
January 20, 2026 at 11:45 AM
Single most interesting data point over the medium term is the decline in the health number.
Reposted by Alan Wager
"He said he wanted to see the UK give up its nuclear weapons, saying he would try to persuade other nuclear-armed countries – including Russia – to do the same."
What an optimistic fellow.
What an optimistic fellow.
EXC: Zack Polanski tells us Britain should consider closing US military bases, leave Nato and denuclearise, as he begins to flesh out the Greens’ foreign policy.
Also spells out to @pippacrerar.bsky.social and me his red lines in any coalition talks to come.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Also spells out to @pippacrerar.bsky.social and me his red lines in any coalition talks to come.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
UK should consider expelling US forces from British bases, says Zack Polanski
Exclusive: Green party leader advocates leaving Nato and says Britain should wean itself off its reliance on the US
www.theguardian.com
January 20, 2026 at 8:15 AM
"He said he wanted to see the UK give up its nuclear weapons, saying he would try to persuade other nuclear-armed countries – including Russia – to do the same."
What an optimistic fellow.
What an optimistic fellow.