Alan Wager
@dralanwager.bsky.social
Politics, public opinion and public policy at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.
Email: a.wager@institute.global
Email: a.wager@institute.global
Superb stuff from @nickanstead.bsky.social.
The Celebrity Traitors are behaving like a more fragmented and volatile electorate. Perhaps because they have less on the line?
The Celebrity Traitors are behaving like a more fragmented and volatile electorate. Perhaps because they have less on the line?
November 6, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Superb stuff from @nickanstead.bsky.social.
The Celebrity Traitors are behaving like a more fragmented and volatile electorate. Perhaps because they have less on the line?
The Celebrity Traitors are behaving like a more fragmented and volatile electorate. Perhaps because they have less on the line?
'Alarm clock Britain' is remarkably hackneyed, cliched and - frankly - dull - phraseology from someone who is meant to be good at this stuff.
November 3, 2025 at 8:51 AM
'Alarm clock Britain' is remarkably hackneyed, cliched and - frankly - dull - phraseology from someone who is meant to be good at this stuff.
As @luketryl.bsky.social says, ‘if government is to rebuild support for digital ID it will have to start with making a clearer use case.’
Plenty of ideas for how to reset and begin doing that in our latest report here.
institute.global/insights/pol...
Plenty of ideas for how to reset and begin doing that in our latest report here.
institute.global/insights/pol...
October 1, 2025 at 1:25 PM
As @luketryl.bsky.social says, ‘if government is to rebuild support for digital ID it will have to start with making a clearer use case.’
Plenty of ideas for how to reset and begin doing that in our latest report here.
institute.global/insights/pol...
Plenty of ideas for how to reset and begin doing that in our latest report here.
institute.global/insights/pol...
Day two has begun. Come join us.
September 29, 2025 at 8:47 AM
Day two has begun. Come join us.
Lammy with us making the case that Australian Labor, Canadian Liberals and Norwegian Labour Party all show a comeback is possible – provided ‘you show who’s side you’re on’ and that you ‘pick some fights and win them’
September 28, 2025 at 3:49 PM
Lammy with us making the case that Australian Labor, Canadian Liberals and Norwegian Labour Party all show a comeback is possible – provided ‘you show who’s side you’re on’ and that you ‘pick some fights and win them’
‘The Centre-Left only wins when they speak about Hope rather than Fear’
Great to have a big of optimism and vision to kick off conference — Alan Milburn on the need to inject some forward facing hope when talking about public services, rather than being mired in despair.
Great to have a big of optimism and vision to kick off conference — Alan Milburn on the need to inject some forward facing hope when talking about public services, rather than being mired in despair.
September 28, 2025 at 1:31 PM
‘The Centre-Left only wins when they speak about Hope rather than Fear’
Great to have a big of optimism and vision to kick off conference — Alan Milburn on the need to inject some forward facing hope when talking about public services, rather than being mired in despair.
Great to have a big of optimism and vision to kick off conference — Alan Milburn on the need to inject some forward facing hope when talking about public services, rather than being mired in despair.
When we segmented the population, we found Reform voters were split on their views on Digital ID - but with overall support at 2:1 in favour.
Another issue where Farage could be trapped into being the voice of the online fringes rather than the median voter.
institute.global/insights/pol...
Another issue where Farage could be trapped into being the voice of the online fringes rather than the median voter.
institute.global/insights/pol...
September 25, 2025 at 2:44 PM
When we segmented the population, we found Reform voters were split on their views on Digital ID - but with overall support at 2:1 in favour.
Another issue where Farage could be trapped into being the voice of the online fringes rather than the median voter.
institute.global/insights/pol...
Another issue where Farage could be trapped into being the voice of the online fringes rather than the median voter.
institute.global/insights/pol...
This defeatism is presented as a steel man argument against Digital ID.
But it is, of course, simultaneously one of the best reasons to digitise the British state (at the moment, it doesn't work!) and one of the key reasons we're in the state we are in (the belief that "reform is impossible").
But it is, of course, simultaneously one of the best reasons to digitise the British state (at the moment, it doesn't work!) and one of the key reasons we're in the state we are in (the belief that "reform is impossible").
September 25, 2025 at 7:48 AM
This defeatism is presented as a steel man argument against Digital ID.
But it is, of course, simultaneously one of the best reasons to digitise the British state (at the moment, it doesn't work!) and one of the key reasons we're in the state we are in (the belief that "reform is impossible").
But it is, of course, simultaneously one of the best reasons to digitise the British state (at the moment, it doesn't work!) and one of the key reasons we're in the state we are in (the belief that "reform is impossible").
The growing AI confidence gap.
And what the government should do about it:
institute.global/insights/tec...
And what the government should do about it:
institute.global/insights/tec...
September 22, 2025 at 2:06 PM
The growing AI confidence gap.
And what the government should do about it:
institute.global/insights/tec...
And what the government should do about it:
institute.global/insights/tec...
My policy colleagues have come up with some great recommendations around upskilling and communicating how AI is used.
September 22, 2025 at 12:17 PM
My policy colleagues have come up with some great recommendations around upskilling and communicating how AI is used.
5. Finally, we did some sectoral deep-dives. This on education and use by sectors was really interesting. To my surprise, peopel were marginally more comfortable with the concept of AI tutors than teachers using AI for routine tasks.
September 22, 2025 at 12:17 PM
5. Finally, we did some sectoral deep-dives. This on education and use by sectors was really interesting. To my surprise, peopel were marginally more comfortable with the concept of AI tutors than teachers using AI for routine tasks.
4. A problem for the country to address. Using a longitudinal question from Ipsos, we found confidence in AI skills is growing - but look at where that change in skills confidence is happening...
September 22, 2025 at 12:17 PM
4. A problem for the country to address. Using a longitudinal question from Ipsos, we found confidence in AI skills is growing - but look at where that change in skills confidence is happening...
3. There is a (very) steep age gradient on whether you see AI as a risk or an opportunity
September 22, 2025 at 12:17 PM
3. There is a (very) steep age gradient on whether you see AI as a risk or an opportunity
2. Using a linear-regression model controlling for demographic factors and underlying trust, we show familiarity with AI breeds confidence.
i.e. You're more likely to think AI is good for the country if you have begun to use it regularly
Here's the basic descriptive finding:
i.e. You're more likely to think AI is good for the country if you have begun to use it regularly
Here's the basic descriptive finding:
September 22, 2025 at 12:17 PM
2. Using a linear-regression model controlling for demographic factors and underlying trust, we show familiarity with AI breeds confidence.
i.e. You're more likely to think AI is good for the country if you have begun to use it regularly
Here's the basic descriptive finding:
i.e. You're more likely to think AI is good for the country if you have begun to use it regularly
Here's the basic descriptive finding:
1. We have great data from Ipsos Knowledge Panel (which is randomised sampling and digitally inclusive). So a clear read on how many people use AI.
The answer is around a quarter of folk use it regularly at work, and one in five in their personal
The answer is around a quarter of folk use it regularly at work, and one in five in their personal
September 22, 2025 at 12:17 PM
1. We have great data from Ipsos Knowledge Panel (which is randomised sampling and digitally inclusive). So a clear read on how many people use AI.
The answer is around a quarter of folk use it regularly at work, and one in five in their personal
The answer is around a quarter of folk use it regularly at work, and one in five in their personal
You could be forgiven for assuming that Trump faces significantly stronger domestic opposition to deploying peacekeeping troops than Merz, Macron and Starmer.
Not the case. Identical levels of support for peacekeeping troops in France, Germany and US. Only UK with a slim majority in support.
Not the case. Identical levels of support for peacekeeping troops in France, Germany and US. Only UK with a slim majority in support.
August 21, 2025 at 1:58 PM
You could be forgiven for assuming that Trump faces significantly stronger domestic opposition to deploying peacekeeping troops than Merz, Macron and Starmer.
Not the case. Identical levels of support for peacekeeping troops in France, Germany and US. Only UK with a slim majority in support.
Not the case. Identical levels of support for peacekeeping troops in France, Germany and US. Only UK with a slim majority in support.
Explicit in this is that digital government (and implicit that, yes, secure government services enabled by some form of digital identification) will provide a key part of the answer on automatic voter registration and modernising elections. Good news.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
www.gov.uk/government/p...
July 17, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Explicit in this is that digital government (and implicit that, yes, secure government services enabled by some form of digital identification) will provide a key part of the answer on automatic voter registration and modernising elections. Good news.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
www.gov.uk/government/p...
Great and interesting piece, though includes the pervasive Blue Labour myth 'New Labour lost the working class'.
This is the correlation between the number of working class jobs in a constituency and Labour margin over the Tories, 1997-2024. Spot where it held steady, and when it began to fall...
This is the correlation between the number of working class jobs in a constituency and Labour margin over the Tories, 1997-2024. Spot where it held steady, and when it began to fall...
July 16, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Great and interesting piece, though includes the pervasive Blue Labour myth 'New Labour lost the working class'.
This is the correlation between the number of working class jobs in a constituency and Labour margin over the Tories, 1997-2024. Spot where it held steady, and when it began to fall...
This is the correlation between the number of working class jobs in a constituency and Labour margin over the Tories, 1997-2024. Spot where it held steady, and when it began to fall...
Early days of the McTague editorship, but there has been a notable uptick in the dynamism of the New Statesman’s podcast content. And this is quite a cover page.
July 16, 2025 at 7:21 AM
Early days of the McTague editorship, but there has been a notable uptick in the dynamism of the New Statesman’s podcast content. And this is quite a cover page.
The BBC's *Culture and Media Editor* 'had never heard of Bob Vylan'. However, she is very clear that their brand of political activism is against the ethos of the festival and the 'welcome-to-all vibe that Glastonbury tries to project'.
Hard to imagine a more clueless piece!
Hard to imagine a more clueless piece!
July 1, 2025 at 8:25 AM
The BBC's *Culture and Media Editor* 'had never heard of Bob Vylan'. However, she is very clear that their brand of political activism is against the ethos of the festival and the 'welcome-to-all vibe that Glastonbury tries to project'.
Hard to imagine a more clueless piece!
Hard to imagine a more clueless piece!
What's striking here (from @edhodgsoned.bsky.social) is the Angela Rayner number.
There is a really big disjunction between the quant and what you often hear in qualitative work - where I find Rayner is spontaneously mentioned positively more often than any other Labour politician.
There is a really big disjunction between the quant and what you often hear in qualitative work - where I find Rayner is spontaneously mentioned positively more often than any other Labour politician.
May 29, 2025 at 3:10 PM
What's striking here (from @edhodgsoned.bsky.social) is the Angela Rayner number.
There is a really big disjunction between the quant and what you often hear in qualitative work - where I find Rayner is spontaneously mentioned positively more often than any other Labour politician.
There is a really big disjunction between the quant and what you often hear in qualitative work - where I find Rayner is spontaneously mentioned positively more often than any other Labour politician.
& two other equally (or in Lord @markpackuk.bsky.social’s case more!) eminent folk who didn’t fit on the screenshot!
Read @richardcarr.bsky.social’s full review here blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofb...
Read @richardcarr.bsky.social’s full review here blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofb...
May 22, 2025 at 1:56 PM
& two other equally (or in Lord @markpackuk.bsky.social’s case more!) eminent folk who didn’t fit on the screenshot!
Read @richardcarr.bsky.social’s full review here blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofb...
Read @richardcarr.bsky.social’s full review here blogs.lse.ac.uk/lsereviewofb...
Rejoice! My book has entered the Am**on bargain bin and, at 75% off, is now just £16 if you act fast!
Here’s what three eminent folk – @thehistoryguy.bsky.social, @anandmenon.bsky.social and @matthewholehouse.bsky.social – had to say about it.
amzn.eu/d/cf2qcD3
Here’s what three eminent folk – @thehistoryguy.bsky.social, @anandmenon.bsky.social and @matthewholehouse.bsky.social – had to say about it.
amzn.eu/d/cf2qcD3
May 22, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Rejoice! My book has entered the Am**on bargain bin and, at 75% off, is now just £16 if you act fast!
Here’s what three eminent folk – @thehistoryguy.bsky.social, @anandmenon.bsky.social and @matthewholehouse.bsky.social – had to say about it.
amzn.eu/d/cf2qcD3
Here’s what three eminent folk – @thehistoryguy.bsky.social, @anandmenon.bsky.social and @matthewholehouse.bsky.social – had to say about it.
amzn.eu/d/cf2qcD3
Yes, and much of the analysis I've seen starts at 2015 and forgets that 2005-15 arguably saw Labour lose more votes to UKIP than the Conservatives (and, yes, particularly in e.g. Durham). All ancient (or, pre-Brexit) history but part of the longitudinal story.
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
May 22, 2025 at 8:52 AM
Yes, and much of the analysis I've seen starts at 2015 and forgets that 2005-15 arguably saw Labour lose more votes to UKIP than the Conservatives (and, yes, particularly in e.g. Durham). All ancient (or, pre-Brexit) history but part of the longitudinal story.
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
Who the hell are those 22.5% of Arsenal fans?
May 21, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Who the hell are those 22.5% of Arsenal fans?