Sam Kirschner
@cincysam6.bsky.social
Husband and Father of 2. Economist by training, data scientist by profession, and die-hard Cincinnati sports fan by birth.
Reposted by Sam Kirschner
INDIANA WINS THE ROSE BOWL
January 2, 2026 at 12:21 AM
INDIANA WINS THE ROSE BOWL
Reposted by Sam Kirschner
Michael is right of course, but there's something to the fact that survivorship bias is a hell of a drug. No one who was saved by lockdowns and masks knows that. They felt the costs, but have no way of recognizing the benefits.
That's where math comes in. And the math is clear. The book is bollocks
That's where math comes in. And the math is clear. The book is bollocks
This is genuinely horrifying. Fact-free far-right agitprop given accolades by credible media across the political spectrum.
Congratulations to Stephen Macedo & Frances Lee, whose book In Covid's Wake has been recognized as:
⭐ A @newyorker.com Best Book of the Year
⭐ An @economist.com Book of the Year
⭐ A @wsj.com Best Book of the Year
Learn more about this eye-opening book: press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
⭐ A @newyorker.com Best Book of the Year
⭐ An @economist.com Book of the Year
⭐ A @wsj.com Best Book of the Year
Learn more about this eye-opening book: press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
December 24, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Michael is right of course, but there's something to the fact that survivorship bias is a hell of a drug. No one who was saved by lockdowns and masks knows that. They felt the costs, but have no way of recognizing the benefits.
That's where math comes in. And the math is clear. The book is bollocks
That's where math comes in. And the math is clear. The book is bollocks
Reposted by Sam Kirschner
If you are interested in either a data science career or hobby, including in sports analysis, this opportunity is not to be missed. Watch the lectures. Read the chapters. Do the work.
I would be concerned about any applicant who hadn’t done this already.
I would be concerned about any applicant who hadn’t done this already.
I'm teaching Statistical Rethinking again starting Jan 2026. This time with live lectures, divided into Beginner and Experienced sections. Will be a lot more work for me, but I hope much better for students.
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
December 9, 2025 at 2:48 PM
If you are interested in either a data science career or hobby, including in sports analysis, this opportunity is not to be missed. Watch the lectures. Read the chapters. Do the work.
I would be concerned about any applicant who hadn’t done this already.
I would be concerned about any applicant who hadn’t done this already.
Reposted by Sam Kirschner
I'm teaching Statistical Rethinking again starting Jan 2026. This time with live lectures, divided into Beginner and Experienced sections. Will be a lot more work for me, but I hope much better for students.
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
December 9, 2025 at 1:58 PM
I'm teaching Statistical Rethinking again starting Jan 2026. This time with live lectures, divided into Beginner and Experienced sections. Will be a lot more work for me, but I hope much better for students.
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
Reposted by Sam Kirschner
Great work here by the Posit team. If you give an LLM a plot designed to show a relationship, the LLM will extremely frequently describe the relationship it expects to see, rather than what the plot actually shows!
November 13, 2025 at 5:57 PM
Great work here by the Posit team. If you give an LLM a plot designed to show a relationship, the LLM will extremely frequently describe the relationship it expects to see, rather than what the plot actually shows!
Reposted by Sam Kirschner
November 7, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Reposted by Sam Kirschner
Chatbots — LLMs — do not know facts and are not designed to be able to accurately answer factual questions. They are designed to find and mimic patterns of words, probabilistically. When they’re “right” it’s because correct things are often written down, so those patterns are frequent. That’s all.
June 19, 2025 at 11:21 AM
Chatbots — LLMs — do not know facts and are not designed to be able to accurately answer factual questions. They are designed to find and mimic patterns of words, probabilistically. When they’re “right” it’s because correct things are often written down, so those patterns are frequent. That’s all.
Reposted by Sam Kirschner
I have 3 streams left and that’s insane. I’ve streamed longer than I’ve been in baseball and longer than I’ve been a neuroscientist. Playing guitar may be the only thing I’ve done longer than stream, to far less success.
See y’all over the next 3 days!
See y’all over the next 3 days!
October 27, 2025 at 6:31 AM
I have 3 streams left and that’s insane. I’ve streamed longer than I’ve been in baseball and longer than I’ve been a neuroscientist. Playing guitar may be the only thing I’ve done longer than stream, to far less success.
See y’all over the next 3 days!
See y’all over the next 3 days!
Reposted by Sam Kirschner
An interesting iteration on something I also wrote about a while ago tonyelhabr.rbind.io/posts/xg-rat...
October 22, 2025 at 7:09 PM
An interesting iteration on something I also wrote about a while ago tonyelhabr.rbind.io/posts/xg-rat...
This week's post is going to focus on getting started with the BDB. I have a series of 4 planned for the next two weeks to help get newbies with some base programming knowledge go from zero to a basic model with tracking data. If you have questions, please ask!
open.substack.com/pub/cincysam...
open.substack.com/pub/cincysam...
October 17, 2025 at 5:24 PM
This week's post is going to focus on getting started with the BDB. I have a series of 4 planned for the next two weeks to help get newbies with some base programming knowledge go from zero to a basic model with tracking data. If you have questions, please ask!
open.substack.com/pub/cincysam...
open.substack.com/pub/cincysam...
Reposted by Sam Kirschner
NFL kickers are 77-for-108 on 50+ yard field goals this season, as kicks that once seemed extraordinary now seem routine.
www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootb...
www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootb...
NFL kickers are 77-for-108 on 50+ yard field goals this season
There was a time when a 50-yard field goal was a rare accomplishment in the NFL.
www.nbcsports.com
October 16, 2025 at 2:22 PM
NFL kickers are 77-for-108 on 50+ yard field goals this season, as kicks that once seemed extraordinary now seem routine.
www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootb...
www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootb...
NFL Big Data Bowl dropped this past week and while I'm not entering this year, I did want to have some fun with tracking data and other football side projects so I'm launching a Substack as a public forum to do so. Plan to do some BDB tutorials. Check it out!
cincysam6.substack.com/p/welcome-fr...
cincysam6.substack.com/p/welcome-fr...
Welcome, Friend.
I figured I’d start this Substack with a brief introduction to myself and the purpose of this space.
cincysam6.substack.com
October 11, 2025 at 2:29 AM
NFL Big Data Bowl dropped this past week and while I'm not entering this year, I did want to have some fun with tracking data and other football side projects so I'm launching a Substack as a public forum to do so. Plan to do some BDB tutorials. Check it out!
cincysam6.substack.com/p/welcome-fr...
cincysam6.substack.com/p/welcome-fr...
Reposted by Sam Kirschner
I would literally not have a career in sports without it.
Has anything great happened in your life because of social media?
October 8, 2025 at 6:42 PM
I would literally not have a career in sports without it.
Reposted by Sam Kirschner
I really really really liked The Oatmeal’s take on AI here theoatmeal.com/comics/ai_art
A cartoonist's review of AI art - The Oatmeal
This is a comic about AI art.
theoatmeal.com
October 8, 2025 at 1:57 PM
I really really really liked The Oatmeal’s take on AI here theoatmeal.com/comics/ai_art
Reposted by Sam Kirschner
The Aussie Rules Grand Final, the Australian Super Bowl at the 100k seat Melbourne Cricket Ground, will be live on FS2 tonight in the US at 11pm CT.
Brisbane is going for Back to Back titles, against Geelong who last won it in 2022.
Brisbane is going for Back to Back titles, against Geelong who last won it in 2022.
September 26, 2025 at 12:34 PM
The Aussie Rules Grand Final, the Australian Super Bowl at the 100k seat Melbourne Cricket Ground, will be live on FS2 tonight in the US at 11pm CT.
Brisbane is going for Back to Back titles, against Geelong who last won it in 2022.
Brisbane is going for Back to Back titles, against Geelong who last won it in 2022.
Reposted by Sam Kirschner
🏈 The 8th annual NFL Big Data Bowl is here!
This year, we’re excited to launch two competitions in collaboration with NFL. Participants will use NFL player tracking (Next Gen Stats) to generate insights that enhance the game.
Pro tip: you can compete in both 😎
More info 👇
This year, we’re excited to launch two competitions in collaboration with NFL. Participants will use NFL player tracking (Next Gen Stats) to generate insights that enhance the game.
Pro tip: you can compete in both 😎
More info 👇
September 25, 2025 at 3:11 PM
🏈 The 8th annual NFL Big Data Bowl is here!
This year, we’re excited to launch two competitions in collaboration with NFL. Participants will use NFL player tracking (Next Gen Stats) to generate insights that enhance the game.
Pro tip: you can compete in both 😎
More info 👇
This year, we’re excited to launch two competitions in collaboration with NFL. Participants will use NFL player tracking (Next Gen Stats) to generate insights that enhance the game.
Pro tip: you can compete in both 😎
More info 👇
Reposted by Sam Kirschner
The Broncos hired Meyappan Subbaiah as a Senior Data Scientist, per sources.
Subbaiah had been a data scientist in the NFL league office and previously worked for Zelus Analytics.
Subbaiah had been a data scientist in the NFL league office and previously worked for Zelus Analytics.
September 24, 2025 at 1:20 AM
The Broncos hired Meyappan Subbaiah as a Senior Data Scientist, per sources.
Subbaiah had been a data scientist in the NFL league office and previously worked for Zelus Analytics.
Subbaiah had been a data scientist in the NFL league office and previously worked for Zelus Analytics.
I have no interest in RedZone, but if they want to make every game a prime vision game - I'm in.
September 19, 2025 at 2:32 AM
I have no interest in RedZone, but if they want to make every game a prime vision game - I'm in.
More midnight kicker madness. They say Brady was the goat, but look at that FG percentage in pressure situations and just overall percentages stratified by depth. GOATkowski
September 18, 2025 at 4:15 AM
More midnight kicker madness. They say Brady was the goat, but look at that FG percentage in pressure situations and just overall percentages stratified by depth. GOATkowski
Just as a comparison, check out recently cut Younghoe Koo. Better FG% at every distance, greater range, etc. The expectations have changed a lot as kickers have raised the bar.
September 17, 2025 at 4:37 AM
Just as a comparison, check out recently cut Younghoe Koo. Better FG% at every distance, greater range, etc. The expectations have changed a lot as kickers have raised the bar.
Working on a project on field goal kicking and falling down a Martin "Automatica" Gramatica highlights. The dude was elite back in the day when a 50+ kick was a feat. That said, his career stats make you realize how far field goal kickers have come in terms of skill level.
September 17, 2025 at 4:27 AM
Working on a project on field goal kicking and falling down a Martin "Automatica" Gramatica highlights. The dude was elite back in the day when a 50+ kick was a feat. That said, his career stats make you realize how far field goal kickers have come in terms of skill level.
Reposted by Sam Kirschner
Every #Rstats user should read this post from @jennybryan.bsky.social.
Especially beginner to intermediate-level ones.
www.tidyverse.org/blog/2017/12...
Especially beginner to intermediate-level ones.
www.tidyverse.org/blog/2017/12...
Project-oriented workflow
Advice on workflows for developing R scripts. How to think about whether an action belongs in the script or elsewhere.
www.tidyverse.org
August 1, 2025 at 8:37 PM
Every #Rstats user should read this post from @jennybryan.bsky.social.
Especially beginner to intermediate-level ones.
www.tidyverse.org/blog/2017/12...
Especially beginner to intermediate-level ones.
www.tidyverse.org/blog/2017/12...