Seth Walder
@sethwalder.bsky.social
ESPN NFL Analyst. DMs open.
Pinned
Seth Walder
@sethwalder.bsky.social
· Mar 28
Updated NFL analytics staffer list!*
As always, this list is to the best of my understanding based both on what teams list and conversations with analytics folks around the league.
(*Re-posting because I had a mistake on previous post)
As always, this list is to the best of my understanding based both on what teams list and conversations with analytics folks around the league.
(*Re-posting because I had a mistake on previous post)
you have to get the 2-point and win in OT. And you don't know if you hit that 2 point until you do it.
Slightly later in game model would have for sure preferred 2-point (it very, very, very narrowly did as it stood).
Slightly later in game model would have for sure preferred 2-point (it very, very, very narrowly did as it stood).
February 9, 2026 at 5:40 PM
you have to get the 2-point and win in OT. And you don't know if you hit that 2 point until you do it.
Slightly later in game model would have for sure preferred 2-point (it very, very, very narrowly did as it stood).
Slightly later in game model would have for sure preferred 2-point (it very, very, very narrowly did as it stood).
I haven't seen what they said but our model had it as a toss up and I think the rationale is that there actually is a difference between 12 and 13 in that: TD+FG+FG wins you the game as opposed to tying.
Being down 11 is good because you can go 8+3 but it's still basically runner-runner because...
Being down 11 is good because you can go 8+3 but it's still basically runner-runner because...
February 9, 2026 at 5:38 PM
I haven't seen what they said but our model had it as a toss up and I think the rationale is that there actually is a difference between 12 and 13 in that: TD+FG+FG wins you the game as opposed to tying.
Being down 11 is good because you can go 8+3 but it's still basically runner-runner because...
Being down 11 is good because you can go 8+3 but it's still basically runner-runner because...
feel like they wouldn't do SB rematch -- wasn't there a big kerfuffle when they did that to Carolina after losing to Denver?
February 9, 2026 at 3:39 PM
feel like they wouldn't do SB rematch -- wasn't there a big kerfuffle when they did that to Carolina after losing to Denver?
February 9, 2026 at 2:38 PM
Yes, this was the big error.
And surprising because of how obvious it was to go for it.
Down 12, 4th and 1 in the 3rd quarter? Shouldn't even have to think about it.
And surprising because of how obvious it was to go for it.
Down 12, 4th and 1 in the 3rd quarter? Shouldn't even have to think about it.
Most were right decision but scratching head at Pats not going for it on 4th and 1 early in second half.
February 9, 2026 at 2:15 PM
Yes, this was the big error.
And surprising because of how obvious it was to go for it.
Down 12, 4th and 1 in the 3rd quarter? Shouldn't even have to think about it.
And surprising because of how obvious it was to go for it.
Down 12, 4th and 1 in the 3rd quarter? Shouldn't even have to think about it.
There was not a single 4th down go in the Super Bowl!
February 9, 2026 at 2:02 PM
There was not a single 4th down go in the Super Bowl!
Super Bowl QBRs
Sam Darnold: 53.0
Drake Maye: 16.3
Sam Darnold: 53.0
Drake Maye: 16.3
February 9, 2026 at 4:41 AM
Super Bowl QBRs
Sam Darnold: 53.0
Drake Maye: 16.3
Sam Darnold: 53.0
Drake Maye: 16.3
Reposted by Seth Walder
Devon Witherspoon: Two sacks, one forced fumble (returned for a TD), ZERO targets in 33 coverage snaps.
GIVE HIM THE MVP!!!!
GIVE HIM THE MVP!!!!
A notable sack for someone who has Devon Witherspoon as my Super Bowl MVP pick
February 9, 2026 at 3:01 AM
Devon Witherspoon: Two sacks, one forced fumble (returned for a TD), ZERO targets in 33 coverage snaps.
GIVE HIM THE MVP!!!!
GIVE HIM THE MVP!!!!
February 9, 2026 at 2:56 AM
see sometimes we say kick!!
February 9, 2026 at 2:56 AM
see sometimes we say kick!!
Sorry deleted several times but we had 2 point decision as being right on the edge.
5.4% WP either way.
5.4% WP either way.
February 9, 2026 at 2:47 AM
Sorry deleted several times but we had 2 point decision as being right on the edge.
5.4% WP either way.
5.4% WP either way.
Reposted by Seth Walder
What could go wrong
February 9, 2026 at 2:37 AM
What could go wrong
trust at an all-time high
February 9, 2026 at 2:31 AM
trust at an all-time high
That's an extremely obvious error by Mike Vrabel.
Needed a 42% chance of converting to justify going for it. We estimated they had a 67% chance of conversion.
Even if the model knew it was a long 1 to go, it still would have been miles ahead of the 42%.
Needed a 42% chance of converting to justify going for it. We estimated they had a 67% chance of conversion.
Even if the model knew it was a long 1 to go, it still would have been miles ahead of the 42%.
February 9, 2026 at 2:04 AM
That's an extremely obvious error by Mike Vrabel.
Needed a 42% chance of converting to justify going for it. We estimated they had a 67% chance of conversion.
Even if the model knew it was a long 1 to go, it still would have been miles ahead of the 42%.
Needed a 42% chance of converting to justify going for it. We estimated they had a 67% chance of conversion.
Even if the model knew it was a long 1 to go, it still would have been miles ahead of the 42%.
gotta go for this!
February 9, 2026 at 1:59 AM
gotta go for this!
Reposted by Seth Walder
Darnold's been great at turning would-be sacks into incompletions or short gains with his legs, but he's left some throws on the field. The long scramble drill throw to JSN, the post to JSN that Gonzalez was able to catch up to before half, and on that third-down out versus the blitz.
February 9, 2026 at 1:55 AM
Darnold's been great at turning would-be sacks into incompletions or short gains with his legs, but he's left some throws on the field. The long scramble drill throw to JSN, the post to JSN that Gonzalez was able to catch up to before half, and on that third-down out versus the blitz.
Patriots recorded a 46% pass block win rate in the first half.
If that held, it would be their worst PBWR game of the season.
If that held, it would be their worst PBWR game of the season.
February 9, 2026 at 1:42 AM
Patriots recorded a 46% pass block win rate in the first half.
If that held, it would be their worst PBWR game of the season.
If that held, it would be their worst PBWR game of the season.
Our live page with updates from tons of analysts: www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
February 9, 2026 at 1:41 AM
Our live page with updates from tons of analysts: www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Reposted by Seth Walder
new watch party addition
February 9, 2026 at 12:11 AM
new watch party addition
darnold-meter.com was getting overloaded but i paid some more server money and now it should be better :)
February 9, 2026 at 12:18 AM
darnold-meter.com was getting overloaded but i paid some more server money and now it should be better :)
Reposted by Seth Walder
This is hilarious and amazing
February 9, 2026 at 12:03 AM
This is hilarious and amazing
darnold confidence dropped last series 😬
February 9, 2026 at 12:04 AM
darnold confidence dropped last series 😬
February 8, 2026 at 11:36 PM
This line moved down to 16.5 (shaded over)!!
My favorite Super Bowl prop: Stefon Diggs fastest ball carrier speed under 18.5 MPH (-160) at DraftKings.
Diggs has 96 touches this season and went over that speed as a ball carrier on *one* of them.
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
Diggs has 96 touches this season and went over that speed as a ball carrier on *one* of them.
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
February 8, 2026 at 6:55 PM
This line moved down to 16.5 (shaded over)!!
pretty large swings in darnold confidence over the last four hours. a preview of tomorrow????
darnold-meter.com
darnold-meter.com
February 8, 2026 at 3:45 AM
pretty large swings in darnold confidence over the last four hours. a preview of tomorrow????
darnold-meter.com
darnold-meter.com