Seth Walder
@sethwalder.bsky.social
ESPN NFL Analyst. DMs open.
MODEL LIKED PUNT BY A LOT
November 11, 2025 at 4:18 AM
MODEL LIKED PUNT BY A LOT
November 11, 2025 at 1:54 AM
The Titans didn't play in Week 10, but their chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick increased.
November 10, 2025 at 5:32 PM
The Titans didn't play in Week 10, but their chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick increased.
Double team rate at defensive tackle (x) by pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (y) through yesterday's games.
(ESPN Analytics / NFL Next Gen Stats)
(ESPN Analytics / NFL Next Gen Stats)
November 10, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Double team rate at defensive tackle (x) by pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (y) through yesterday's games.
(ESPN Analytics / NFL Next Gen Stats)
(ESPN Analytics / NFL Next Gen Stats)
Highest pass rush win rate at edge in Week 10 thus far. It pays to play against the Chargers (backup) tackles.
November 10, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Highest pass rush win rate at edge in Week 10 thus far. It pays to play against the Chargers (backup) tackles.
Week 10 PRWR leaders through the Sunday early window
November 9, 2025 at 10:47 PM
Week 10 PRWR leaders through the Sunday early window
November 9, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Model did not like Texans kick decision down 17
November 9, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Model did not like Texans kick decision down 17
No one takes Emeka Egbuka, touchdown dots!
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
November 9, 2025 at 6:09 PM
No one takes Emeka Egbuka, touchdown dots!
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
(NFL Next Gen Stats)
Underrated part of the Jets Sauce Gardner trade: acquiring AD Mitchell.
Mitchell ranked 8th among WRs in open score last year -- tied with Tyreek Hill and Zay Flowers. Exactly the kind of player a team like the Jets should be betting on.
Here's a sampling of some missed downfield Mitchell plays.
Mitchell ranked 8th among WRs in open score last year -- tied with Tyreek Hill and Zay Flowers. Exactly the kind of player a team like the Jets should be betting on.
Here's a sampling of some missed downfield Mitchell plays.
November 9, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Underrated part of the Jets Sauce Gardner trade: acquiring AD Mitchell.
Mitchell ranked 8th among WRs in open score last year -- tied with Tyreek Hill and Zay Flowers. Exactly the kind of player a team like the Jets should be betting on.
Here's a sampling of some missed downfield Mitchell plays.
Mitchell ranked 8th among WRs in open score last year -- tied with Tyreek Hill and Zay Flowers. Exactly the kind of player a team like the Jets should be betting on.
Here's a sampling of some missed downfield Mitchell plays.
Week 10 betting guide from Matt Bowen, @benjaminsolak.bsky.social and me! I'll add defensive props over the weekend when they become available.
Will I break my 7-week losing streak on receiving yard alts? Let's find out!
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
Will I break my 7-week losing streak on receiving yard alts? Let's find out!
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
November 7, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Week 10 betting guide from Matt Bowen, @benjaminsolak.bsky.social and me! I'll add defensive props over the weekend when they become available.
Will I break my 7-week losing streak on receiving yard alts? Let's find out!
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
Will I break my 7-week losing streak on receiving yard alts? Let's find out!
www.espn.com/espn/betting...
Anyway, I say this because we have one of those qualifying games tonight: McBride against the Cowboys.
Dallas is a bad defense but they deter targets from the short and intermediate middle of the field relative to other defenses.
Dallas is a bad defense but they deter targets from the short and intermediate middle of the field relative to other defenses.
November 3, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Anyway, I say this because we have one of those qualifying games tonight: McBride against the Cowboys.
Dallas is a bad defense but they deter targets from the short and intermediate middle of the field relative to other defenses.
Dallas is a bad defense but they deter targets from the short and intermediate middle of the field relative to other defenses.
The chart on the left shows where Trey McBride runs his routes relative to average (among all route runners). It’s not where his routes end, but where he is at 1s, 2s, 3s, 4s until the pass arrives. McBride works the middle of the field more than the average player, no surprise.
November 3, 2025 at 6:33 PM
The chart on the left shows where Trey McBride runs his routes relative to average (among all route runners). It’s not where his routes end, but where he is at 1s, 2s, 3s, 4s until the pass arrives. McBride works the middle of the field more than the average player, no surprise.
This is still pretty experimental work, but I’ve been spending some time looking at where receivers run routes and where opposing defense allow targets, using NFL Next Gen Stats data.
The question: does that help us predict a receiver’s production in an upcoming game?
The question: does that help us predict a receiver’s production in an upcoming game?
November 3, 2025 at 6:32 PM
This is still pretty experimental work, but I’ve been spending some time looking at where receivers run routes and where opposing defense allow targets, using NFL Next Gen Stats data.
The question: does that help us predict a receiver’s production in an upcoming game?
The question: does that help us predict a receiver’s production in an upcoming game?
JSN's move was so good it looks like Trey Amos' dot was glitching
November 3, 2025 at 2:18 AM
JSN's move was so good it looks like Trey Amos' dot was glitching
Our model preferred punt
November 3, 2025 at 12:23 AM
Our model preferred punt
4th down analysis for Jags 4th-and-goal at the 1 in OT
November 3, 2025 at 12:21 AM
4th down analysis for Jags 4th-and-goal at the 1 in OT
just your friendly neighborhood 4th-and-17
November 2, 2025 at 11:52 PM
just your friendly neighborhood 4th-and-17
Highest pass rush win rates in Week 9 thus far, through the Sunday early window:
November 2, 2025 at 10:54 PM
Highest pass rush win rates in Week 9 thus far, through the Sunday early window:
Colston Loveland saves the Bears, dots!!!!!!
November 2, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Colston Loveland saves the Bears, dots!!!!!!