Seth Walder
@sethwalder.bsky.social
ESPN NFL Analyst. DMs open.
Pinned
Seth Walder
@sethwalder.bsky.social
· Mar 28
Updated NFL analytics staffer list!*
As always, this list is to the best of my understanding based both on what teams list and conversations with analytics folks around the league.
(*Re-posting because I had a mistake on previous post)
As always, this list is to the best of my understanding based both on what teams list and conversations with analytics folks around the league.
(*Re-posting because I had a mistake on previous post)
Reposted by Seth Walder
The Analytics don’t always say go for it!!!!!
November 11, 2025 at 4:19 AM
The Analytics don’t always say go for it!!!!!
MODEL LIKED PUNT BY A LOT
November 11, 2025 at 4:18 AM
MODEL LIKED PUNT BY A LOT
We like punt here, I believe.
November 11, 2025 at 4:18 AM
We like punt here, I believe.
Deleted last tweet on go for it ... lookahead heavily influenced by clock here so we'll see what the post-snap says when it knows the actual clock.
November 11, 2025 at 4:17 AM
Deleted last tweet on go for it ... lookahead heavily influenced by clock here so we'll see what the post-snap says when it knows the actual clock.
Packers should go for 2 here.
Find out now if a FG wins it for you or not -- helps your decision-making next drive -- instead of the unknown of OT.
Find out now if a FG wins it for you or not -- helps your decision-making next drive -- instead of the unknown of OT.
November 11, 2025 at 3:47 AM
Packers should go for 2 here.
Find out now if a FG wins it for you or not -- helps your decision-making next drive -- instead of the unknown of OT.
Find out now if a FG wins it for you or not -- helps your decision-making next drive -- instead of the unknown of OT.
The Eagles and Packers combined for four pass attempts of 10 air yards or more in the first half (not counting throwaways).
All four were incomplete.
All four were incomplete.
November 11, 2025 at 2:43 AM
The Eagles and Packers combined for four pass attempts of 10 air yards or more in the first half (not counting throwaways).
All four were incomplete.
All four were incomplete.
Packers currently rocking a cool -38% pass rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
November 11, 2025 at 2:00 AM
Packers currently rocking a cool -38% pass rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
That's a Jalyx Hunt sack but a Jaelan Phillips sack created.
November 11, 2025 at 1:23 AM
That's a Jalyx Hunt sack but a Jaelan Phillips sack created.
Sam Darnold didn't actually even have enough plays in Seattle's blowout win yesterday to qualify for the QBR leaderboard for the week. (He had an 82.4)
November 10, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Sam Darnold didn't actually even have enough plays in Seattle's blowout win yesterday to qualify for the QBR leaderboard for the week. (He had an 82.4)
The Titans didn't play in Week 10, but their chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick increased.
November 10, 2025 at 5:32 PM
The Titans didn't play in Week 10, but their chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick increased.
Double team rate at defensive tackle (x) by pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (y) through yesterday's games.
(ESPN Analytics / NFL Next Gen Stats)
(ESPN Analytics / NFL Next Gen Stats)
November 10, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Double team rate at defensive tackle (x) by pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (y) through yesterday's games.
(ESPN Analytics / NFL Next Gen Stats)
(ESPN Analytics / NFL Next Gen Stats)
Highest pass rush win rate at edge in Week 10 thus far. It pays to play against the Chargers (backup) tackles.
November 10, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Highest pass rush win rate at edge in Week 10 thus far. It pays to play against the Chargers (backup) tackles.
Broke out every NFL team into 9 playoff tiers -- from Super Bowl contenders to wait 'til next year's and everything in between!
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
November 10, 2025 at 1:53 PM
Broke out every NFL team into 9 playoff tiers -- from Super Bowl contenders to wait 'til next year's and everything in between!
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Kyle Shanahan failed the down 8 test ❌❌❌
(Ball don’t lie edition)
(Ball don’t lie edition)
November 9, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Kyle Shanahan failed the down 8 test ❌❌❌
(Ball don’t lie edition)
(Ball don’t lie edition)
Week 10 PRWR leaders through the Sunday early window
November 9, 2025 at 10:47 PM
Week 10 PRWR leaders through the Sunday early window
November 9, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Reposted by Seth Walder
Giants FG today was the first 19-yard FG of the year that was not on the final play before halftime.
Giants kicked a 19-yard field goal on a fourth-and-goal from the 1 and lost game.
November 9, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Giants FG today was the first 19-yard FG of the year that was not on the final play before halftime.
Reposted by Seth Walder
Just watched the Browns commit a game-ending offsides penalty
Huge No. 1 pick leverage today in East Rutherford.
Chance to earn top pick in draft, per FPI
Browns w/ win: 6%
Browns w/ loss: 27%
Jets w/ win: 8%
Jets w/ loss: 27%
Chance to earn top pick in draft, per FPI
Browns w/ win: 6%
Browns w/ loss: 27%
Jets w/ win: 8%
Jets w/ loss: 27%
November 9, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Just watched the Browns commit a game-ending offsides penalty
Kevin O’Connell passed the down 8 test ✅✅✅
November 9, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Kevin O’Connell passed the down 8 test ✅✅✅
Bears should go for 2 here.
November 9, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Bears should go for 2 here.
Reposted by Seth Walder
Lamar’s influence as a rushing threat always fun to see in the dots
November 9, 2025 at 8:35 PM
Lamar’s influence as a rushing threat always fun to see in the dots
myles price giveth, myles price taketh
November 9, 2025 at 8:04 PM
myles price giveth, myles price taketh
oh my god stingley
November 9, 2025 at 7:36 PM
oh my god stingley
I don't have an exact number on purposefully trying not to score on Patriots first down. My ~instinct~ is it's not worth it. Scoring from the 1 is less certain than it seems (don't forget about penalties!!) and the most important thing for WP is coming away from that possession with a TD.
November 9, 2025 at 7:20 PM
I don't have an exact number on purposefully trying not to score on Patriots first down. My ~instinct~ is it's not worth it. Scoring from the 1 is less certain than it seems (don't forget about penalties!!) and the most important thing for WP is coming away from that possession with a TD.
Model did not like Texans kick decision down 17
November 9, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Model did not like Texans kick decision down 17