Aaron Schatz
@aaronschatz.com
Chief Analytics Officer, FTN Fantasy. ESPN NFL writer. Former radio DJ. Founder of Football Outsiders, creator of DVOA, All-Pro/MVP voter.
I would love to write a nuanced discussion of my preseason NFC East projections and where they were right and wrong, and what we can learn from that.
I don't think Eagles fans want nuanced so instead I offer this thread for them to enjoy the schadenfreude. Get it out of your system, it's boring me.
I don't think Eagles fans want nuanced so instead I offer this thread for them to enjoy the schadenfreude. Get it out of your system, it's boring me.
November 11, 2025 at 4:27 AM
I would love to write a nuanced discussion of my preseason NFC East projections and where they were right and wrong, and what we can learn from that.
I don't think Eagles fans want nuanced so instead I offer this thread for them to enjoy the schadenfreude. Get it out of your system, it's boring me.
I don't think Eagles fans want nuanced so instead I offer this thread for them to enjoy the schadenfreude. Get it out of your system, it's boring me.
I thought ESPN Analytics never said to punt?
November 11, 2025 at 4:19 AM
I thought ESPN Analytics never said to punt?
Middle of the Packers line, with the backup center, completely gives way.
November 11, 2025 at 4:15 AM
Middle of the Packers line, with the backup center, completely gives way.
Eagles will now be 6-1 in one-score games.
As we know from the Kansas City Chiefs of the last two years, success in one-score games is incredibly consistent over time.
(I kid. They did make the big plays when it counted tonight.)
As we know from the Kansas City Chiefs of the last two years, success in one-score games is incredibly consistent over time.
(I kid. They did make the big plays when it counted tonight.)
November 11, 2025 at 4:11 AM
Eagles will now be 6-1 in one-score games.
As we know from the Kansas City Chiefs of the last two years, success in one-score games is incredibly consistent over time.
(I kid. They did make the big plays when it counted tonight.)
As we know from the Kansas City Chiefs of the last two years, success in one-score games is incredibly consistent over time.
(I kid. They did make the big plays when it counted tonight.)
Play action on third-and-10 from your own 10? Sure, I suppose.
November 11, 2025 at 4:05 AM
Play action on third-and-10 from your own 10? Sure, I suppose.
Illegal formation penalties make me want to pull my hair out.
November 11, 2025 at 3:28 AM
Illegal formation penalties make me want to pull my hair out.
The Eagles were only 17th in DVOA on defense coming into this game. Maybe Jaelen Phillips is the MVP?
November 11, 2025 at 2:39 AM
The Eagles were only 17th in DVOA on defense coming into this game. Maybe Jaelen Phillips is the MVP?
Good halftime read.
How Elon Musk’s Changes to X Made Our Discourse Far Stupider by Dave Weigel talkingpointsmemo.com/tpm-25/how-e... talkingpointsmemo.com/tpm-25/how-e...
How Elon Musk’s Changes to X Made Our Discourse Far Stupider
We don’t know the minute when X started throttling links to news,...
talkingpointsmemo.com
November 11, 2025 at 2:37 AM
Good halftime read.
They blocked Parsons pretty well on that third-and-long but it didn't matter.
November 11, 2025 at 2:21 AM
They blocked Parsons pretty well on that third-and-long but it didn't matter.
If you're the defender, though, why are you hooking the receiver's arm when the pass is SIX FEET OVER HIS HEAD?
That ball was six feet over Dallas Geodert's head.
November 11, 2025 at 2:17 AM
If you're the defender, though, why are you hooking the receiver's arm when the pass is SIX FEET OVER HIS HEAD?
That ball was six feet over Dallas Geodert's head.
November 11, 2025 at 2:16 AM
That ball was six feet over Dallas Geodert's head.
The most alpha book from 1870 to 1930 was Edwin Abbott's Flatland, of course.
*maximum alpha at 1.25x speed* continuously lives on in my head, unfortunately.
November 11, 2025 at 2:11 AM
The most alpha book from 1870 to 1930 was Edwin Abbott's Flatland, of course.
If you combined TreVeyon Henderson with Packers tight end John FitzPatrick you would have TrEVeYon FitZPaTriCK.
November 11, 2025 at 2:10 AM
If you combined TreVeyon Henderson with Packers tight end John FitzPatrick you would have TrEVeYon FitZPaTriCK.
Note: I may be slightly bitter because I'm losing in a fantasy league where Love is my bye week backup to Mahomes.
Alright baby, let's go run run incomplete again!
November 11, 2025 at 2:08 AM
Note: I may be slightly bitter because I'm losing in a fantasy league where Love is my bye week backup to Mahomes.
Alright baby, let's go run run incomplete again!
November 11, 2025 at 2:06 AM
Alright baby, let's go run run incomplete again!
Oh no did we make the coaches' jobs harder by making them have to make strategic decisions? The horror.
November 11, 2025 at 1:59 AM
Oh no did we make the coaches' jobs harder by making them have to make strategic decisions? The horror.
Man, the Packers really decided they wanted to run the ball tonight, huh?
November 11, 2025 at 1:57 AM
Man, the Packers really decided they wanted to run the ball tonight, huh?
They don't show "PUNT" when it is fourth-and-12 because they assume you are not a moron.
Do ESPN Analytics ever suggest anything but GO on fourth down?
November 11, 2025 at 1:55 AM
They don't show "PUNT" when it is fourth-and-12 because they assume you are not a moron.
I would like it if Microsoft had a commerical that explained how to turn their new AI off. Stop bothering me.
November 11, 2025 at 1:45 AM
I would like it if Microsoft had a commerical that explained how to turn their new AI off. Stop bothering me.
And then they recovered that aborted snap, so that's two recoveries tonight.
GB has been one of the luckier teams with fumble recovery this season, recovering 67% of fumbles coming into this game and then that fumble right there.
November 11, 2025 at 1:42 AM
And then they recovered that aborted snap, so that's two recoveries tonight.
GB has been one of the luckier teams with fumble recovery this season, recovering 67% of fumbles coming into this game and then that fumble right there.
November 11, 2025 at 1:42 AM
GB has been one of the luckier teams with fumble recovery this season, recovering 67% of fumbles coming into this game and then that fumble right there.
Hurts' knee was on top of a defender's helmet, that's a fumble.
November 11, 2025 at 1:39 AM
Hurts' knee was on top of a defender's helmet, that's a fumble.
Fun with stats.
The most consistent team in the NFL based on week-to-week DVOA is the Los Angeles Rams, who are second overall.
The No. 2 most consistent team is the Tennessee Titans, who are dead last overall.
Good consistent vs. bad consistent.
The most consistent team in the NFL based on week-to-week DVOA is the Los Angeles Rams, who are second overall.
The No. 2 most consistent team is the Tennessee Titans, who are dead last overall.
Good consistent vs. bad consistent.
November 10, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Fun with stats.
The most consistent team in the NFL based on week-to-week DVOA is the Los Angeles Rams, who are second overall.
The No. 2 most consistent team is the Tennessee Titans, who are dead last overall.
Good consistent vs. bad consistent.
The most consistent team in the NFL based on week-to-week DVOA is the Los Angeles Rams, who are second overall.
The No. 2 most consistent team is the Tennessee Titans, who are dead last overall.
Good consistent vs. bad consistent.
Hey, going to talk some football with some Canadians, come join us at 3:30.
Coming up today on #GamePlay, Matthew Cauz will be joined by @joshuakloke.bsky.social and @aaronschatz.com!
Listen from 2-4pm on your home speakers, @tsnofficial.bsky.social App, iHeart Radio App or player.toronto.tsn.ca!
Listen from 2-4pm on your home speakers, @tsnofficial.bsky.social App, iHeart Radio App or player.toronto.tsn.ca!
November 10, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Hey, going to talk some football with some Canadians, come join us at 3:30.