Aaron Schatz
@aaronschatz.com
Chief Analytics Officer, FTN Fantasy. ESPN NFL writer. Former radio DJ. Founder of Football Outsiders, creator of DVOA, All-Pro/MVP voter.
Pinned
Aaron Schatz
@aaronschatz.com
· 26d
DVOA Explainer
An explanation of DVOA, DYAR, and Aaron Schatz's other advanced stats.
ftnfantasy.com
This is a pinned post for people new to my work.
DVOA explainer: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-exp...
Latest DVOA numbers: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Stats content on FTN: ftnfantasy.com/stats/articles
DVOA explainer: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-exp...
Latest DVOA numbers: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...
Stats content on FTN: ftnfantasy.com/stats/articles
Reposted by Aaron Schatz
It wasn't just Tommy Maddox - it was Tommy Maddox AND Shawn Moore, because Dan Reeves decided to rotate his backup quarterbacks every play with John Elway out injured.
February 10, 2026 at 2:38 PM
It wasn't just Tommy Maddox - it was Tommy Maddox AND Shawn Moore, because Dan Reeves decided to rotate his backup quarterbacks every play with John Elway out injured.
This goes without saying, but I'm a great believer that when you compare teams to the past, you compare teams to the standard of their own eras.
An average 2025 team like the Falcons would probably wipe the floor with the 1966 Packers, given advances in training, nutrition, and sports medicine.
An average 2025 team like the Falcons would probably wipe the floor with the 1966 Packers, given advances in training, nutrition, and sports medicine.
Would love to see the 96 Packers and the 25 Seahawks special teams duke it out!
That being said, game has completely changed and those classic 90s teams would have a hard time with Seattle’s speed.
That being said, game has completely changed and those classic 90s teams would have a hard time with Seattle’s speed.
February 10, 2026 at 2:03 PM
This goes without saying, but I'm a great believer that when you compare teams to the past, you compare teams to the standard of their own eras.
An average 2025 team like the Falcons would probably wipe the floor with the 1966 Packers, given advances in training, nutrition, and sports medicine.
An average 2025 team like the Falcons would probably wipe the floor with the 1966 Packers, given advances in training, nutrition, and sports medicine.
So many responses to Seattle's DVOA this year have been like this. "Seattle isn't really that good, so DVOA must be garbage."
Have you considered that maybe Seattle IS that good and our memories of classic teams are not as accurate as we think? (1/x)
Have you considered that maybe Seattle IS that good and our memories of classic teams are not as accurate as we think? (1/x)
Which tells us how flawed that metric is. Seattle is good, but teams with legit offensive lines would be able to score on them. 90s Was, Nyg, Dallas for example.
I've watched the last 40 Superbowls, Seattle isn't top 3. But you keep routing your stat
I've watched the last 40 Superbowls, Seattle isn't top 3. But you keep routing your stat
February 10, 2026 at 1:29 PM
So many responses to Seattle's DVOA this year have been like this. "Seattle isn't really that good, so DVOA must be garbage."
Have you considered that maybe Seattle IS that good and our memories of classic teams are not as accurate as we think? (1/x)
Have you considered that maybe Seattle IS that good and our memories of classic teams are not as accurate as we think? (1/x)
Reposted by Aaron Schatz
Seahawks DVOA kings, week after week 👑 @aaronschatz.com
February 10, 2026 at 12:14 AM
Seahawks DVOA kings, week after week 👑 @aaronschatz.com
I realized that I did the Seahawks on the list of the top DVOA teams but not the top DVOA defenses including the playoffs.
2025 Seahawks 8th, 2013 Seahawks 11th
2000 Ravens are notable because they were so much better in the playoffs than the regular season.
2025 Seahawks 8th, 2013 Seahawks 11th
2000 Ravens are notable because they were so much better in the playoffs than the regular season.
February 9, 2026 at 8:08 PM
I realized that I did the Seahawks on the list of the top DVOA teams but not the top DVOA defenses including the playoffs.
2025 Seahawks 8th, 2013 Seahawks 11th
2000 Ravens are notable because they were so much better in the playoffs than the regular season.
2025 Seahawks 8th, 2013 Seahawks 11th
2000 Ravens are notable because they were so much better in the playoffs than the regular season.
Something I just noticed: NFL teams averaged 0.7 interceptions per game this year, the lowest figure in modern NFL history.
February 9, 2026 at 7:50 PM
Something I just noticed: NFL teams averaged 0.7 interceptions per game this year, the lowest figure in modern NFL history.
Reposted by Aaron Schatz
Rare air: Seahawks edition 🏔️
February 9, 2026 at 6:11 PM
Rare air: Seahawks edition 🏔️
We asked this on today's Schatz and Tanier podcast... was the Hellmann's Mayo ad on the west coast done for Best Foods mayo? Or did you guys get an ad for a mayo brand you don't actually have in stores?
February 9, 2026 at 5:26 PM
We asked this on today's Schatz and Tanier podcast... was the Hellmann's Mayo ad on the west coast done for Best Foods mayo? Or did you guys get an ad for a mayo brand you don't actually have in stores?
Saying this as the guy whose numbers have loved the Ravens every year, I think the Ravens are too high here. The Seahawks should be behind the Rams because offense is more consistent than defense. Otherwise it looks good to me.
Super Bowl 61 odds from @betmgm:
Seahawks +800
Rams +900
Ravens +1200
Bills +1200
Packers +1400
Eagles +1400
Lions +1500
Chiefs +1500
Chargers +1500
Patriots +1500
#49ers +1700
Broncos +2000
Texans +2000
Jaguars +2000
(#Raiders are at +15000)
Seahawks +800
Rams +900
Ravens +1200
Bills +1200
Packers +1400
Eagles +1400
Lions +1500
Chiefs +1500
Chargers +1500
Patriots +1500
#49ers +1700
Broncos +2000
Texans +2000
Jaguars +2000
(#Raiders are at +15000)
February 9, 2026 at 4:59 PM
Saying this as the guy whose numbers have loved the Ravens every year, I think the Ravens are too high here. The Seahawks should be behind the Rams because offense is more consistent than defense. Otherwise it looks good to me.
It is true, the Patriots playoff games showed who they really were which is why they WON THREE OF THEM.
They were a good team that got better late in the season but was NEVER AS GOOD AS SEATTLE.
They were a good team that got better late in the season but was NEVER AS GOOD AS SEATTLE.
And the Pats’ reputation was inflated by an easy schedule.
Their 3 playoff games showed who they really were.
Their 3 playoff games showed who they really were.
February 9, 2026 at 4:54 PM
It is true, the Patriots playoff games showed who they really were which is why they WON THREE OF THEM.
They were a good team that got better late in the season but was NEVER AS GOOD AS SEATTLE.
They were a good team that got better late in the season but was NEVER AS GOOD AS SEATTLE.
A lot of people are looking for scapegoats with the Patriots today and yeah, there was some bad play and some bad coaching.
Mostly, as I keep saying, the Seahawks were just THAT GOOD. Their coaching is that good. Their players are that good. Give them the credit.
Mostly, as I keep saying, the Seahawks were just THAT GOOD. Their coaching is that good. Their players are that good. Give them the credit.
February 9, 2026 at 4:51 PM
A lot of people are looking for scapegoats with the Patriots today and yeah, there was some bad play and some bad coaching.
Mostly, as I keep saying, the Seahawks were just THAT GOOD. Their coaching is that good. Their players are that good. Give them the credit.
Mostly, as I keep saying, the Seahawks were just THAT GOOD. Their coaching is that good. Their players are that good. Give them the credit.
Come talk about Super Bowl LX with me and @miketanier.bsky.social at 11am Eastern.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5RS...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5RS...
Super Bowl LX Review: Seahawks-Patriots
YouTube video by FTN
www.youtube.com
February 9, 2026 at 3:51 PM
Come talk about Super Bowl LX with me and @miketanier.bsky.social at 11am Eastern.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5RS...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5RS...
Some discussion in here about why DVOA had Seattle higher than EPA-based power ratings for most of the season.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/super-bo...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/super-bo...
Super Bowl LX Recap: Quick Reads on Seahawks and Patriots
Seattle had a dominant defensive performance in Super Bowl LX and finish as one of the greatest teams in DVOA history.
ftnfantasy.com
February 9, 2026 at 3:10 PM
Some discussion in here about why DVOA had Seattle higher than EPA-based power ratings for most of the season.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/super-bo...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/super-bo...
Super Bowl LX DVOA recap and Quick Reads. Includes a table of the best defensive performances in Super Bowl history, and where the Seahawks stand among all teams since 1978.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/super-bo...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/super-bo...
Super Bowl LX Recap: Quick Reads on Seahawks and Patriots
Seattle had a dominant defensive performance in Super Bowl LX and finish as one of the greatest teams in DVOA history.
ftnfantasy.com
February 9, 2026 at 3:05 PM
Super Bowl LX DVOA recap and Quick Reads. Includes a table of the best defensive performances in Super Bowl history, and where the Seahawks stand among all teams since 1978.
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/super-bo...
ftnfantasy.com/nfl/super-bo...
Reposted by Aaron Schatz
Drake Maye is actually a good quarterback
February 9, 2026 at 2:18 PM
Drake Maye is actually a good quarterback
In case you missed this last night, ranking all 60 Super Bowl champions by DVOA. Seattle a shocking No. 3.
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Ranking every Super Bowl champion team from 1-60
How good was the 2025 Seahawks team? We ranked the Super Bowl LX winner against the other 59 champions.
www.espn.com
February 9, 2026 at 1:55 PM
In case you missed this last night, ranking all 60 Super Bowl champions by DVOA. Seattle a shocking No. 3.
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
The 2003 Eagles beat the Packers 20-17 and then lost to the Panthers 14-3. They did not play the Patriots.
ASTRERISK - the patriots cheated in 2003 by taping opponents practices. that’s the only reason Mcnabb is on this list.
February 9, 2026 at 1:37 PM
The 2003 Eagles beat the Packers 20-17 and then lost to the Panthers 14-3. They did not play the Patriots.
Worst QB performance passing YAR (no opponent adjustments, no scrambles) in an entire playoffs since 1978:
D.Maye 2025 NE: -310
D.Brock 1985 LARM: -290
B.Hoyer 2015 HOU: -269
D.Bledsoe 1996 NE: -227
D.McNabb 2003 PHI: -223
D.Marino 1997 MIA: -218
Maye w/scrambles: -244 YAR or -56 DYAR
D.Maye 2025 NE: -310
D.Brock 1985 LARM: -290
B.Hoyer 2015 HOU: -269
D.Bledsoe 1996 NE: -227
D.McNabb 2003 PHI: -223
D.Marino 1997 MIA: -218
Maye w/scrambles: -244 YAR or -56 DYAR
February 9, 2026 at 1:33 PM
Worst QB performance passing YAR (no opponent adjustments, no scrambles) in an entire playoffs since 1978:
D.Maye 2025 NE: -310
D.Brock 1985 LARM: -290
B.Hoyer 2015 HOU: -269
D.Bledsoe 1996 NE: -227
D.McNabb 2003 PHI: -223
D.Marino 1997 MIA: -218
Maye w/scrambles: -244 YAR or -56 DYAR
D.Maye 2025 NE: -310
D.Brock 1985 LARM: -290
B.Hoyer 2015 HOU: -269
D.Bledsoe 1996 NE: -227
D.McNabb 2003 PHI: -223
D.Marino 1997 MIA: -218
Maye w/scrambles: -244 YAR or -56 DYAR
Reposted by Aaron Schatz
Italians, your white card has been revoked. Stefani Germanotta is a perfidious latin
February 9, 2026 at 12:16 PM
Italians, your white card has been revoked. Stefani Germanotta is a perfidious latin
No. 1 team in DVOA after each week of the 2025 season:
Wk 1: Commanders
Wk 2: Packers
Wk 3-4: Seahawks
Wk 5: Lions
Wk 6-7: Seahawks
Wk 8: Colts
Wk 9-11: Seahawks
Wk 12: Rams
Wk 13-15: Seahawks
Wk 16: Rams
Wk 17-22: Seahawks
Wk 1: Commanders
Wk 2: Packers
Wk 3-4: Seahawks
Wk 5: Lions
Wk 6-7: Seahawks
Wk 8: Colts
Wk 9-11: Seahawks
Wk 12: Rams
Wk 13-15: Seahawks
Wk 16: Rams
Wk 17-22: Seahawks
February 9, 2026 at 1:19 PM
No. 1 team in DVOA after each week of the 2025 season:
Wk 1: Commanders
Wk 2: Packers
Wk 3-4: Seahawks
Wk 5: Lions
Wk 6-7: Seahawks
Wk 8: Colts
Wk 9-11: Seahawks
Wk 12: Rams
Wk 13-15: Seahawks
Wk 16: Rams
Wk 17-22: Seahawks
Wk 1: Commanders
Wk 2: Packers
Wk 3-4: Seahawks
Wk 5: Lions
Wk 6-7: Seahawks
Wk 8: Colts
Wk 9-11: Seahawks
Wk 12: Rams
Wk 13-15: Seahawks
Wk 16: Rams
Wk 17-22: Seahawks
Best defensive DVOA in Super Bowl
2000 Ravens -103.0%
1985 Bears -102.9%
2002 Bucs -86.4%
2024 Eagles -73.0%
2020 Bucs -70.6%
2025 Seahawks -67.9%
1991 Redskins -67.4%
2013 Seahawks -67.0%
Seahawks were at -82.5% after three quarters.
2000 Ravens -103.0%
1985 Bears -102.9%
2002 Bucs -86.4%
2024 Eagles -73.0%
2020 Bucs -70.6%
2025 Seahawks -67.9%
1991 Redskins -67.4%
2013 Seahawks -67.0%
Seahawks were at -82.5% after three quarters.
February 9, 2026 at 4:55 AM
Best defensive DVOA in Super Bowl
2000 Ravens -103.0%
1985 Bears -102.9%
2002 Bucs -86.4%
2024 Eagles -73.0%
2020 Bucs -70.6%
2025 Seahawks -67.9%
1991 Redskins -67.4%
2013 Seahawks -67.0%
Seahawks were at -82.5% after three quarters.
2000 Ravens -103.0%
1985 Bears -102.9%
2002 Bucs -86.4%
2024 Eagles -73.0%
2020 Bucs -70.6%
2025 Seahawks -67.9%
1991 Redskins -67.4%
2013 Seahawks -67.0%
Seahawks were at -82.5% after three quarters.
The top teams by DVOA since 1978, including playoffs.
1991 Washington: 53.9%
1985 Bears: 52.3%
2007 Patriots: 51.0%
2025 SEAHAWKS: 46.4%
1989 49ers: 45.1%
1996 Packers: 44.9%
(ESPN number may be slightly off, being fixed right now.)
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
1991 Washington: 53.9%
1985 Bears: 52.3%
2007 Patriots: 51.0%
2025 SEAHAWKS: 46.4%
1989 49ers: 45.1%
1996 Packers: 44.9%
(ESPN number may be slightly off, being fixed right now.)
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Ranking every Super Bowl champion team from 1-60
How good was the 2025 Seahawks team? We ranked the Super Bowl LX winner against the other 59 champions.
www.espn.com
February 9, 2026 at 4:19 AM
The top teams by DVOA since 1978, including playoffs.
1991 Washington: 53.9%
1985 Bears: 52.3%
2007 Patriots: 51.0%
2025 SEAHAWKS: 46.4%
1989 49ers: 45.1%
1996 Packers: 44.9%
(ESPN number may be slightly off, being fixed right now.)
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
1991 Washington: 53.9%
1985 Bears: 52.3%
2007 Patriots: 51.0%
2025 SEAHAWKS: 46.4%
1989 49ers: 45.1%
1996 Packers: 44.9%
(ESPN number may be slightly off, being fixed right now.)
www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...
Now from a Pats fan perspective... what a fun year! Even with the SB loss, that was pretty awesome. Way ahead of schedule. I feel good about this team for years with Drake Maye, even though he'll need to be better against good defenses. I have faith in him and in the young OL getting better.
February 9, 2026 at 3:53 AM
Now from a Pats fan perspective... what a fun year! Even with the SB loss, that was pretty awesome. Way ahead of schedule. I feel good about this team for years with Drake Maye, even though he'll need to be better against good defenses. I have faith in him and in the young OL getting better.
Seattle first moved into the No. 1 spot in DVOA after Week 3. They were briefly No. 2 four different weeks, but each time they went back to No. 1 after one week.
ALL-TIME GREAT SEASON.
ALL-TIME GREAT SEASON.
February 9, 2026 at 3:28 AM
Seattle first moved into the No. 1 spot in DVOA after Week 3. They were briefly No. 2 four different weeks, but each time they went back to No. 1 after one week.
ALL-TIME GREAT SEASON.
ALL-TIME GREAT SEASON.